Comments on: Stock Market Returns by Party http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/stock-market-returns-by-party/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 08:40:44 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Barry Ritholtz http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/stock-market-returns-by-party/comment-page-1/#comment-126436 Barry Ritholtz Fri, 14 Nov 2008 22:52:03 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9372#comment-126436 Then again, so was Coolidge! Then again, so was Coolidge!

]]> By: ironman http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/stock-market-returns-by-party/comment-page-1/#comment-126308 ironman Fri, 14 Nov 2008 16:04:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9372#comment-126308 Way cool! I wonder how the results would turn out if one removed Hoover who, let's face it, was quite the statistical outlier.... Way cool! I wonder how the results would turn out if one removed Hoover who, let’s face it, was quite the statistical outlier….

]]> By: nathan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/stock-market-returns-by-party/comment-page-1/#comment-126306 nathan Fri, 14 Nov 2008 15:59:13 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9372#comment-126306 I find this debate and these tools quite useless. Being that the stock market is a forward discounting mechanism, one cannot compare stock market performance looking only at presidential terms. To make it work at all, it would have to include expectations going into the election. For instance, the market expected an Obama presidency a great deal ahead of the actual announcement, but did not when Bush won 2004. That would be the first step in making this useful in any way; not to mention an extremely difficult one. I find this debate and these tools quite useless. Being that the stock market is a forward discounting mechanism, one cannot compare stock market performance looking only at presidential terms. To make it work at all, it would have to include expectations going into the election. For instance, the market expected an Obama presidency a great deal ahead of the actual announcement, but did not when Bush won 2004. That would be the first step in making this useful in any way; not to mention an extremely difficult one.

]]> By: Namazu http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/stock-market-returns-by-party/comment-page-1/#comment-126301 Namazu Fri, 14 Nov 2008 15:46:19 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9372#comment-126301 When I want statistics devoid of statistical significance, I can read Bespoke's blog. When I want statistics devoid of statistical significance, I can read Bespoke’s blog.

]]> By: mistercrayfish http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/stock-market-returns-by-party/comment-page-1/#comment-126297 mistercrayfish Fri, 14 Nov 2008 15:32:18 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9372#comment-126297 Why do all of these tools base their results on which party's President occupied the White House instead of which party controlled Congress at the time? Since all spending legislation originates in the House, and since the Congress is responsible for all tax laws, etc., it seems like a more useful tool would allow you to see stock market returns based on the majority party in Congress, with about a one-year lag to account for new laws having effects on the economy. Why do all of these tools base their results on which party’s President occupied the White House instead of which party controlled Congress at the time? Since all spending legislation originates in the House, and since the Congress is responsible for all tax laws, etc., it seems like a more useful tool would allow you to see stock market returns based on the majority party in Congress, with about a one-year lag to account for new laws having effects on the economy.

]]> By: tedstevens http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/stock-market-returns-by-party/comment-page-1/#comment-126289 tedstevens Fri, 14 Nov 2008 15:00:28 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9372#comment-126289 wow this is a really nice tool that provides extremely insightful results. /sarcasm overly-simplistic is the first thought that jumps in my head...the quality of your blog is degrading. wow this is a really nice tool that provides extremely insightful results. /sarcasm

overly-simplistic is the first thought that jumps in my head…the quality of your blog is degrading.

]]> By: jmborchers http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/stock-market-returns-by-party/comment-page-1/#comment-126287 jmborchers Fri, 14 Nov 2008 14:57:08 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9372#comment-126287 Consumer Con is up slightly. I was right. Consumer Con is up slightly. I was right.

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