Stopped Out Longs, Possible Shorts
Dow is at 7997.28; S&P500 is at 806.58. Our cash position is back to 75%, we are still 25% long (including inverse funds). On this break, we could see (technically) a low of 681 on the SPX, Dow 7,100, and Nasdaq 1070. (There are deeper levels, but its too ugly to write now).
Last week, I was encouraged by the retest Thursday on lighter volume than Oct 10th — but lacking a high volume follow through meant we could not become complacent.
We’ve been trading in and out of the QLDs and SSOs — most of the trades have been money makers — but not the most recent buy, which we took a sale on earlier today for a loss. A large part of our capital preservation strategy is allowing the market to take us out of positions rather than fight it.
Overall, the trades from October 10th and 24th, November 13th have been money-makers. We are now looking at the QIDs — 2 for 1 short Nasdaq 100s.
On a closing basis, the QIDs are potentially a $120 stock. They really need a breakout over $88 — a stone’s throw from here.
ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF)
November 19th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Not long here and the Naz (comp) will be back to a 3 digit index. Holy 1995!
November 19th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Some of you folks owe Steve Barry an apology.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Roubini-land here we come.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
this is why i love this blog. you’re not afraid to admit a bad call. you are and continue to be ‘da man.’
November 19th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
I don’t know any trader who isn’t wrong on a regular basis. Anyone who claims otherwise is a liar or a fool.
More here:
http://www.thestreet.com/comment/barryritholtz/10215965.html
November 19th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
I agree that a rally from here might be a nice setup for a short; the last rally sure was. Still can’t get over GS in the 50’s; those guys must be in shock.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
I’m not that enthusiastic about buying QID right here. I think there’s a good chance it’ll get to the $75 level within the next two weeks. (Not to say that I’m bullish; I’m not).
November 19th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
The people in bonds for safety are in for a rude awakening I think.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
test
I just tried to post three times and none of them appeared. Perhaps I have made Barry angry or maybe it just got caught in some spam filter? I know I’m not the sharpest knife in the drwaer, but I didn’t think I was that bad either…
~~~
BR: Nope, its Akismet — the WP antispam filter — it picks up key words like Casino or Gambling.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
“The people in bonds for safety are in for a rude awakening I think.”
One of these mornings S&P or Moodys is going to announce a reduction of the U.S.’s AAA rating; that will be the mother of all bond tsunamis.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Look at the Dow from 1987 to today on a linear scale. Draw a straight line along the bottom of the curve from after the 1987 crash, and it intersects the Dow today at 7997.
I can’t help thinking this means something. What, exactly, I’m not sure.
The bubble years from 1995 to today seem to have been wiped away.
So, does this mean that the bubble from 1995 to today has been wiped out and we can resume linear growth? Probably not, probably there still has to be overshoot to the downside.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Trading during a full-time job doesn’t work. I’ve had QID for a few weeks. I disliked holding it overnites and over weekends, wanted to lock in some gains…so decided to put a far-fetched sell bid Monday with no expiration. I guess it wasn’t that far-fetched cause it sold at 89.98
November 19th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
OK I think you are just playing games now. Sure, QID could definitely hit $120. But the S&P is now 35% below the 200 day moving average. To jump in and short NOW is to really really really bet against the long-term odds. Anyone with a horizon of 2 weeks or longer will be buying like crazy now. Does this mean we’re at a bottom? No. But we have to move back up a wee bit closer to the moving average before we can fall to S&P — 500. The farthest below the 200 day moving average the market has been was 42% in 1930. Is our economy worse than the Great Depression? The S&P in October 2007 was slightly less expensive than it was in 1929 as well. So, I bet 780 S&P…and then we go up and up and up until March or so.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
We are witnessing the destruction of a huge credit bubble.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
A fantastic and honest post ..I love the,, admit when you are wrong.. it is so rare.
But.. one must say.. You have been pretty correct the last 12 months (-:
I wonder if you read the Elliot Waves ??
November 19th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
@gregh
Yes, I dumped my QID at a small profit today too. It has been a laggard the last few weeks. But that has nothing to do with your working full-time. All this stuff is cyclical it seems to me. I held SRS for months and it always seemed to under perform, then recently it has been a screamer — like today, up 27.55%!
It’s always like playing whack-a-mole. that’s why I now pick a few EFTs to diversify rather than trying to guess which one is going to be hottest.
Good luck.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Any balance sheets that were 1:1 assets to liabilities = Bankrupt (probably greater than 60% chance of that too)
November 19th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
@ jm
“The people in bonds for safety are in for a rude awakening I think.”
So you have already climbed into PST & TBT?
November 19th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
I think that there’s a chance for a $25B loan package for the autos. The Bush administration, and Mitch McConnell have both signaled that they would be willing to use funds that have already been voted for the auto companies, but previously designated for other purposes (re-tooling, or some such). If the D’s have to choose between that or nothing, I think they’ll take it. If a $25B loan package is announced, that could easily give us a 10% one-day move (up).
Over the next few days, I see risk for the short sellers.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Are we at max pessimism yet? Hope not, my silverware draw has room for at least a few more shiny falling knives before I capitulate.
The only thing I’m pissed about is 3 weeks ago I wanted to buy puts on Amazon and got stingy on the bid. For the sake of 10 cents difference at the time ($100 total), they’d be worth 25k today for 6k down. Lesson learned.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Barry the bear is back? Man, I don’t know how you guys trade these 2x funds. You can’t manage risk in something that moves 10% per day. Insanity….As a fellow money manager I firmly believe you are sucking the alpha out of your portfolios by inducing such phenomenal vol….
November 19th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
There is no being wrong in the markets there is only money management. If you manage your losses correctly then it increases your chance of success.
Being right or wrong suggests there is fundamentals at work to which i say foohockey, the market is made up of value illusions and exploiting the hope contained in those movements is how you make largius scorus.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
A close on the lows in a downtrend is a Larry Williams buy signal. I won’t be changing my plans based on it, but I don’t think a buy here is necessarily a terrible idea. Of course, entries aren’t nearly as important as exits.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Anyone ever look at the S&P500 from early-mid 1990’s to present? No technical skills here, but isnt this what is considered a double top?
November 19th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
jmborchers @ 4:19
I think that if you buy LQD in the $90-$91 zone, the downside risk is fairly limited, at least over the next few months.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
@DP: I’m laughing because not nickel-and-diming the entry is a lesson I *still* need to relearn every now and again!
November 19th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
EOPC at 1.15. Normally, that says bounce coming soon. However, in this market, who knows?
November 19th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
people need to stop talking about “testing the lows”. We flew thru the lows on the Russell 2000, Wilshire 5000, S&P, and Naz. The only reason the Dow is holding above it’s lows is entirely attributable to MCD & WMT.
The lows are below us. Likely a retest of the 2002 lows at SP 768.
November 19th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Wow, what a day. I couldn’t stand it any longer: I sold QID, SRS, SMN, TWM, and SCC today at very good gains (except for QID as stated above). I still have DUG and EEV.
I just couldn’t take anymore whiplash rebounds from this area. That means we will probably set new lows later this week. But I am happy to have most of my money out of this horror of a market — for the time being anyway. I’ll probably go back in after the holiday week.
I agree with Barry that QID should be good for 120 eventually, but I’m taking a rest for now. If I’m lucky, which I am usually not, I will buy it again on a bounce next week.
November 19th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Barry, thanks for the update on your thoughts. You’re a gentleman and a scholar - and generous!
November 19th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
“25% long including inverse funds” is a great statement. This makes me wonder - why can’t S&P include inverse funds into the index - instead of few infamous small caps…
November 19th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Thelma and Daphne think Steve Barry is really…[taking mask off]…Nouriel Roubini!!
November 19th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
attobuoy:
Ironically that is about the time M3 started expanding like an explosion!
November 19th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
So is anyone buying non-short stocks/efts? I feel lonely here today.
Bought some KCI. If I’m going to have bleeding fingers I might as well own part of a company that can vacuum heal the wounds.
November 19th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
DP,
I was with you. I couldn’t stand it on a valuation basis so I picked up Massey Energy (MEE) at the close .
November 19th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
@ DP and Winnie:
I-Man is still long. Probably ridiculously. I guess I’m not a trader anymore… just a long term investor with some stocks I thought were at good valuations. Essentially: bag holder. Hey, at least I have yet to hit my 30s… plenty of time to regroup. Value is relative. I’m about to lock up my “trading” account and throw away the key… I’ll check it again some day. Self capitulation rocks. Have a good night friends.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
I continue to add to my Goldman Sachs short and BRK.B shorts. I think these two have another 50% to the downside. Barry, do you not worry about counterparty risk on the proshares inverse funds, I blew out of my skf position too early on the worry about counterparty risk and potential for all short sales to be banned which could affect the ability of the Proshares to function. Bruce in Tennessee, I believe you were touting PRGN based on your reading of the financials. I looked at the financials as well and came to the opposite conclusion. Good luck all.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
By the way how much longer until Cramer is off the air. His fortress 4 call on bac, usb, jpm, wfc will go down with his nasdaq stocks for the new century he wrote about in 2000.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Someone yesterday mentioned HQS and FEED. On a relative valuation basis, they seem to be good long candidates for a long/short portfolio. So…I bought some. (Thank you, fellow TBP reader!)
November 19th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Does it “go without saying” (on a financial blog) that a reader comment is never a recommendation? To be clear, I’ve lost money this year with my long/short portfolio. So, fellow reader beware.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Another prescient call by Bob D.
“Broken hands on broken ploughs,
Broken treaties, broken vows,
Broken pipes, broken tools,
People bending broken rules.
Hound dog howling, bull frog croaking,
Everything is broken.”
from “Oh Mercy”, 1989 (here’s hoping those 1989 lows hold, eh boys?)
November 19th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
DL. I don’t think that’s correct. That ticker is LQD or investment grade bonds. My ass they are investment grade. Soon either a bank in another country will fail or another US bank will fail. I think Citi is done. The warning sign was 10% for preferred shares. Impossible to pay out 10% when you can’t loan >10% loans. The only people dumb enough to pay >10% for loans would be credit card and bad credit people. Which you can’t loan to them right now cause they can’t pay anything.
CC defaults up and now investment grade AAA paper which was made on loans not just 6 months ago are already defaulting.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
Still 50% long. down on some stocks, up on others.
options expiration week.. anything could happen.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
I would think individual stock selection would come to the fore in times like these.
It seems to me that if you can determine a reasonable value and then buy into forced liquidation substantially below that value line then the return potential should significantly outweigh the downside risk - the forced liquidation being the key in that it should be providing an aritficial low in a similar manner that the excess leverage created artificial highs.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Ventura2012, you are right any day now they could ban shorting the market, owning gold, anything. We don’t know. Look at the SKF chart the day after it became illegal to short most banks; -40% that day.
The real killer is already starting to show it’s head. Lack of pricing power. And it will only get worse with all the new factories we set up in Asia over the last 5 years.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
buy some bank CDs, take the next couple years off, i’m thinking Oct ‘10 will be next long-term buy, from 50% below these levels
November 19th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Bank CDs? Forget about it. This kind of thing will totally kill off investor confidence:
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AI8TH20081119
November 19th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
why the heck is Barry worried about whether we are in a bear or bull ??
he seems to make money by trading short term regardless.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
I think bringing up trades is a good addition to the content. Not sure if this is a regular occurrence but it works.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
As much as I hate retail right now I pulled the trigger on some KCP at the bell. $118MM market cap…$51MM in cash with no debt. I think the brand is worth $100MM, plus cash but in this market who knows. Good luck all. I would not be shocked to see a rabbit get pulled out of the hat on OE to save the MM’s as they are getting blown out right now.
November 19th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Be careful BR. Don’t get too crazy shorting things at this point. You’re instincts about getting long were probably correct, you were just a little “early.” I have MANY technical objectives between 768 and 800.
In Elliot Wave study there is a phenomenon known as an irregular Diagonal Triangle Fifth Wave. It’s a special case that occurs after very rapid rises or powerful declines. From the 1008, we may be in the middle of such a pattern. Classical chartists would describe this as a “descending wedge.” If we are seeing such a pattern, I’m expecting support between 780 and 800, which will be followed by a snap back rally to 850 zone. Then, we get one last puke out to 768 for a very nice wave count objective.
Also, check out Berkshire Stock. I don’t do wave analysis on BRK, but was looking at it recently. There seems to be a TON of chart support at around $80,000. BRK’s closed today at $84K, getting VERY close to some major technical support.
Now, if the 2002 lows get taken out at 767 and BRK gets decisively snapped at $80K…..
Then…..
Um…..
What’s the phrase I’m looking for………
WE ARE TOTALLY SCREWD.
- AT
November 19th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
Gold is going to get crushed. All aboard the D-train. That’s funny, Barry was on a broken train today. Coincidence? I don’t think so.
November 19th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
Barry Ritholtz Says:
November 19th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
I don’t know any trader who isn’t wrong on a regular basis. Anyone who claims otherwise is a liar or a fool.
More here:
http://www.thestreet.com/comment/barryritholtz/10215965.html
BR,
as others have noted ~this picking of trades to discss/speaking of current views, is a good idea..
though, I’m still not sure why soo many were rashing you about earlier ‘long calls’–you’ve said, again and again, that you were ’sticking a toe in’/always adhere to ‘tight stops’–I’ll guess they just forgot that Reading Is Fundamental..
to that end, it’s good to see you linking to some of your past stuff from TSC, that body of work is what Textbooks should be made from..
the old site, at .typepad, had a link to some of it, though I haven’t found the same thing here.. Do you plan on importing it?
November 19th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
jmborchers
“The real killer is already starting to show it’s head. Lack of pricing power. And it will only get worse with all the new factories we set up in Asia over the last 5 years.”
You know it; we got excess capacity out the wazoo, worldwide. Deflation is a certainty, IMO.
Andy Tabbo
“Now, if the 2002 lows get taken out at 767 and BRK gets decisively snapped at $80K…..”
IMO, FWIW, breaking below the 2002 lows and BRK < 80K is a gimme. I just don’t know how soon. Could be tomorrow, or next October or anytime in between, but it’s gonna happen, I do believe.
Our cash may be trash, but its gonna be king for a while yet.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Barry… Not about being wrong. It was about counter trend trading. And I see 780 all over the place. That should be the fight. Linear chart and it’s the 26 year trendline. Last major low, and 50% move.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
Oh and Ze used to be Derivs so not like i popped in first time to say. Don’t counter trend trade.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
New Bears should definitely tread carefully.. I posted several times that support would eventually break but traders need to be very aware of intervention and the infamous rally from hell that we have seen several times already in the past month.
The inverse ETFs should only be used intraday, if one wants to hold overnight, then I would recommend Rydex or Proshares Mutual Funds instead. Do a PerfChart between the the ETFs and MFs performance and you’ll see what I am referring to.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
nimbling in since two days ago.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
BR: “I don’t know any trader who isn’t wrong on a regular basis. Anyone who claims otherwise is a liar or a fool.”
Very humble of you
This is why I personally trade only within the intermediate timeframe. Trying to be right day in and day out is a very humbling experience and impossible to do. The more people trade, the more opportunities there are to lose your wad. The market has been on a “sell short” signal since 9/3 and yet most traders will game every move, everyday. The sign of an impulsive gambler unfortunately and the sole reason as to why 99% of all traders fail or eventually put a bullet through their head..
November 19th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
KJ Foehr:
I agree with you. 768 will eventually get snapped but I see it happening in the Summer of 2009. I’m making a “trading call,” if you will. I see the 600 zone as the 61.8% of the lifetime S&P500 as a major support zone for next year. For the sake of humanity we need to see the 600 area hold, otherwise I see levels that I don’t want to even write about in a public forum.
In terms of trading this upcoming support, I would suggest trading the commodities instead of the stock market. The commodities seem more oversold and sentiment extremes are much greater there than anywhere else. For instance….Wheat in the $4’s….Corn in the $3s….Gasoline near $1…Crude near $40 bucks….all of these levels are going to be some major areas of support. I don’t include gold in this list.
- AT
November 19th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
jmborchers, if a preferred is yielding 10%, that doesn’t mean the firm is paying 10%, since the issue price was much higher.
November 19th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
I commend you on your honesty and forthrightness. Your stock just went up big time with me.
I am not a contrarian. I am a bear; at least until our society learns how to choose short term pain for long term gain.
I understand the seduction of momentum trading, but it is a vice.
But as you said when you made the call, you aren’t getting aid to keep money on the sidelines.
My thesis is that this is not a cyclical moment, but permanent social change on par with the adoption of agriculture, or the use of steam: successful change will reap unimagined rewards, failed change will reap unimagined sorrow.
The Information Age is in full ascendancy and a rump Industrial Age exists on handouts, like the Agricultural Age before it. Dawning is the Transhuman Age where AI, robots, genetically enhanced organisms etc. will change not merely the world around us, but ourselves and our posterity.
These technologies will power the next bull, if people can give the system a chance to work. I fear they won’t.
November 19th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
“We’ve been trading in and out of the QLDs and SSOs” “Our cash position is back to 75%”
Why would one be trading in and out of the 2x SSO/QLD meanwhile having such a large cash position? Why not just buy twice the amount of QQQQ/SPY?
November 19th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
Stocks yields are attractive relative to Treasury interest rates. Therefore, don’t Treasuries have nowhere to go but up?
At what level (down from here) would the S&P begin to be competitive with Treasuries if nominal interest rates were to increase beyond (currently higher-than-last-year) real interest rates?
November 19th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
rob, have you looked lately at M3, M2, and M1 at http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply?
M3 has turned down. M1 and M2 are spiking as the fed pumps, but can’t make up for the credit destruction evident in M3.
Deflation.
November 19th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
deflation FTW!
November 19th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
Thelma and Daphne think Steve Barry is really…[taking mask off]…Nouriel Roubini!!
@wunsacon: I would have gotten away with it except for you meddling kids and your stupid dog.
November 19th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
I don’t like calling this situation a panic…if anything, it is the return to sanity (much needed) from a time of mania. What is happening now is actually the rational part of it. Will be very painful though.
This is no time for trading. As some know, I have held QID, adding along the way, since 5/07 without selling a share. I have avoided all whipsaws and now sit at all-time highs. My fundamental analysis and mega long term chart analysis both point to QID of 120. The chart is a perfect, rounded bottom, breakout at 78. This has already been tested a few times and looks good to go to 120 now. Around that point I am scaling out, as I will have achieved my long term goals.
As of today, my prediction made on TBP on 1/2/08, that this will be the worst calendar year in S&P history (-43% in 1931) is in the money…we are down 45% YTD. Barry, will you give me my own thread if I nail this one?
November 19th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
@ jmborchers — “We are witnessing the destruction of a huge credit bubble.”
Got any evidence of that? As in hard numerical data? Steve Barry claims that total credit is still rising.
No doubt that we ARE in a huge credit bubble:
http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/292.pdf
And the claim is that, at least up until around this June — I have not seen any more recent posts from him on this — that the total credit is STILL INCREASING, both in relation to GDP (which is easy, with GDP caving in on itself) and in absolute terms. This is really scary, and I hope there is some sort of arithmetic “oops” in arriving at this conclusion. I’ve made a stab at independently corroborating the numbers in the comstock charts, and while I can’t match them to more than one significant figure (there’s a lotta ways to drift, like seasonally adjusted data), I CAN match them on an order of magnitude basis. And I’ve seen similar charts from Morgan Stanley.
Consider, for a moment, what it would mean if the credit bubble has not yet popped. I know of no other way that bubbles end, and if all this mayhem is simply due to a whacked-out housing market in a too-tightly wound global financial market, after a lengthy monetary-fueled expansion, then what will things be like when the largest credit bubble in the last several hundred years explodes?
I am not a survivalist, nor a “gold-is-money” loon (I see gold as simply a commodity with a history of being a convenient place to hide from inflation — diamonds prolly also work, or bulk supplies of any scarce metal (platinum, iridium, rhodium, etc) — but gold is a nice compromise between portability and liquid markets), but if this ginormous credit bubble bursts in my lifetime (and it could keep growing for a long time, so far as I know, most bubbles persist long after they should have realistically ended), then I know that fiat currencies will be toast and life as I know it will be over.
I surely do hope that you are correct in your assumption that our credit bubble dissipating, but it’s only a hope.
If you have any hard data that shows this to be true, please share it. But assuming that all these failed debt instruments means that the bubble has popped misses the point that the Fed has been working overtime to replace failed debt with new debt. Eventually (and prolly sooner rather than later) all that shiny new debt will be failing too. Then we’re really gonna see the excrement hit the rotating air mover.
November 19th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
wunsacon:
I’ve been taking a close look at the 10 yr bond lately. That 10 yr reached very, very substantial levels today. If the rates go any lower, or the value of the bonds go higher, then it will be a technical breakout in my books. If we exceed today’s levels, we could see some major extremes….new lows on the yield..new highs on the notional value.
All the world’s bonds traders are probably short the 10 yr….which is probably why its going to truck on higher (yields lower).
- AT
November 19th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
@constantnormal:
Since you asked, the Fed puts out Total creditlink to the Federal Reserve Total Credit Market Debt Outstanding. next release is 12/11/08. Yes, it was still rising as of 6/30 and with annualized GDP at 14.3 trillion, Debt/GDP=357%.
November 19th, 2008 at 10:53 pm
Buy QIDs now. Way out of my league. BR either has a small brain or a big a pair o|o
November 19th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
@ Andy: Thanks, Andy. Maybe bond yields stay low for the next 6 months. But, IF — in response to the situation on Main Street getting worse — the government passes stimulus packages and monetizes, nominal interest rates will rise. That should hurt stocks further (unless they’re already down further from here).
That makes me think stocks are screwed either way, either because past earnings were unsustainable or because bonds (one day) will pay better yields and suck away capital. There is not much upside potential at these levels, in real terms. (Is this view legit?)
@ Steve:
Thanks for spiking that one! I didn’t want the setup to go for naught.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:10 am
Constantnormal wrote, “Got any evidence of that? As in hard numerical data? Steve Barry claims that total credit is still rising.”
I quoted Bill Bonner earlier today - $36 Trillion worldwide up in smoke , including worldwide stock losses, write downs, and U.S. home values (not including world home values.)
Increases in total credit don’t come close to matching losses - hence, the likelihood of deflation.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:17 am
Don’t get caught in the deflation bond trap - yields can go a lot lower. If deflation is 5%, for example, a nominal yield of 1% would be a real yield of 6%.
November 20th, 2008 at 2:19 am
I am long on the QQQQ at these levels and hope to be vindicated four to twelve months from now. I mean, Yahoo, NVDA, and other tech stalwarts at under 10 bucks? Barry, as John McEnroe might say, “You cannot be serious!”