Comments on: The Death of Buy and Hold http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-death-of-buy-and-hold/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 20:51:56 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: jeffmacke http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-death-of-buy-and-hold/comment-page-1/#comment-156776 jeffmacke Wed, 25 Mar 2009 00:33:36 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8943#comment-156776 "Idiot" LM? Ouch. If you bought when you posted you're only down 12%, now that we've had a 20% rally. If you bought when I first said "buy and hold is dead" you're down much more. Either way, avoid that "sell" key at all costs. When they turn off your heat you can warm yourself by calling me names and fueling your furnace with the rage of you just knowing that you're right, darnit, not matter what the numbers might be telling you. The S&P 500 is down 38% for the last decade (yes, including the rally of the last month). The index is up almost 3% for 12 years. So, you'll be very slightly ahead of inflation over the next decade, unless, of course, hyperinflation vaporizes your savings or investments. Project that over several centuries and you'll be easily breaking even and then some! It's my fault. “Idiot” LM? Ouch.

If you bought when you posted you’re only down 12%, now that we’ve had a 20% rally. If you bought when I first said “buy and hold is dead” you’re down much more.

Either way, avoid that “sell” key at all costs. When they turn off your heat you can warm yourself by calling me names and fueling your furnace with the rage of you just knowing that you’re right, darnit, not matter what the numbers might be telling you.

The S&P 500 is down 38% for the last decade (yes, including the rally of the last month). The index is up almost 3% for 12 years. So, you’ll be very slightly ahead of inflation over the next decade, unless, of course, hyperinflation vaporizes your savings or investments.

Project that over several centuries and you’ll be easily breaking even and then some!

It’s my fault.

]]> By: Greg0658 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-death-of-buy-and-hold/comment-page-1/#comment-125701 Greg0658 Wed, 12 Nov 2008 12:29:10 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8943#comment-125701 "global casino" yep thats what I been sayin and socialized losses - thanks to the nanny state and "NOT off with their heads" repossesion laws Jubilee if only I new then what I know now ( I think thats a song lyric ) the kids of today are probably in for a rude awakening when the boomers get done “global casino” yep thats what I been sayin
and socialized losses – thanks to the nanny state and “NOT off with their heads” repossesion laws
Jubilee

if only I new then what I know now ( I think thats a song lyric )
the kids of today are probably in for a rude awakening when the boomers get done

]]> By: BG http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-death-of-buy-and-hold/comment-page-1/#comment-125674 BG Wed, 12 Nov 2008 01:06:34 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8943#comment-125674 Buy and Hold is only for suckers who haven't figured out they are the ones being had. Buy and Hold died the day retail investors could trade electronically from home on their PCs. The pace and the hold time just got quicker and more narrow, respectively. Let's not kid ourselves, it's nothing more than a global casino. Where's Pesci & DeNiero? "Are you kidding me?" Buy and Hold is only for suckers who haven’t figured out they are the ones being had.

Buy and Hold died the day retail investors could trade electronically from home on their PCs. The pace and the hold time just got quicker and more narrow, respectively.

Let’s not kid ourselves, it’s nothing more than a global casino. Where’s Pesci & DeNiero? “Are you kidding me?”

]]> By: Jojo99 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-death-of-buy-and-hold/comment-page-1/#comment-125654 Jojo99 Tue, 11 Nov 2008 23:23:25 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8943#comment-125654 Nice chart here: =================== <b>S&P 500 Timeline of the Great Depression</b> <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2008/11/s-500-timeline-of-great-depression.html" rel="nofollow">Article/Chart</a> Nice chart here:
===================
S&P 500 Timeline of the Great Depression
Article/Chart

]]> By: LM Capital http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-death-of-buy-and-hold/comment-page-1/#comment-125635 LM Capital Tue, 11 Nov 2008 21:57:51 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8943#comment-125635 Jeff Macke is an idiot who talks too fast in order to say something worth listening to. As a matter of fact, so are the rest of the "traders" on that show - if you showed them an Income Statement they wouldn't know where to find profit margins. I am quite surprised that this great blog features their stories and gets support from its readers. Moreover, go back to the bullish calls they all made just a few months back, there is no accountability for these kind of journalist who come up with 10 new and bad trade ideas every day. These guys have the intellect of a 5-year old, lacking the patience to do fundamental research. If looking at a few charts and P/E figures would lead you to fortunes - we would all be rich already and they wouldnt waste their time on that tv show. I hope to never see Fast Money on here again so I can enjoy the quite valuable pieces that Barry provides most of the time. -LM Jeff Macke is an idiot who talks too fast in order to say something worth listening to. As a matter of fact, so are the rest of the “traders” on that show – if you showed them an Income Statement they wouldn’t know where to find profit margins. I am quite surprised that this great blog features their stories and gets support from its readers.

Moreover, go back to the bullish calls they all made just a few months back, there is no accountability for these kind of journalist who come up with 10 new and bad trade ideas every day. These guys have the intellect of a 5-year old, lacking the patience to do fundamental research. If looking at a few charts and P/E figures would lead you to fortunes – we would all be rich already and they wouldnt waste their time on that tv show.

I hope to never see Fast Money on here again so I can enjoy the quite valuable pieces that Barry provides most of the time.

-LM

]]> By: DP http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-death-of-buy-and-hold/comment-page-1/#comment-125602 DP Tue, 11 Nov 2008 19:38:17 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8943#comment-125602 Wouldn't 2003 have been a great time to buy and hold? (until 2007) :) Wouldn’t 2003 have been a great time to buy and hold? (until 2007) :)

]]> By: Mark Wolfinger http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-death-of-buy-and-hold/comment-page-1/#comment-125586 Mark Wolfinger Tue, 11 Nov 2008 18:50:24 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8943#comment-125586 Buy and hold has been dead for years. At least IMHO. I wrote an article in 2003 entitled "Buy and Don't Hold." http://sfomag.com/article.aspx?ID=219 http://blog.mdwoptions.com/options_for_rookies/ Buy and hold has been dead for years. At least IMHO. I wrote an article in 2003 entitled “Buy and Don’t Hold.” http://sfomag.com/article.aspx?ID=219

http://blog.mdwoptions.com/options_for_rookies/

]]> By: mlomker http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-death-of-buy-and-hold/comment-page-1/#comment-125550 mlomker Tue, 11 Nov 2008 16:53:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8943#comment-125550 jmborchers, I'm with you. This wave C may not be completely done but it has lost energy. Squeezing every dollar out of a correction doesn't make sense if it means missing the impulse move. jmborchers, I’m with you. This wave C may not be completely done but it has lost energy. Squeezing every dollar out of a correction doesn’t make sense if it means missing the impulse move.

]]> By: drtomaso http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-death-of-buy-and-hold/comment-page-1/#comment-125549 drtomaso Tue, 11 Nov 2008 16:50:12 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8943#comment-125549 This is actually something I started thinking about when comparing the current US08 crisis to JP89. Is there any talk in academic circles about this? It always seemed silly to me when financial advisers talked about the power of compounding when selling me on their 401k plans. The assumption they instructed me to make was somewhere between 8%-12% (depending on the year) which represented the "long term average return of equities." That always seemed to be extremely optimistic to me- reasonable given the history of the market thus far, but how likely is such a trend to continue? This is actually something I started thinking about when comparing the current US08 crisis to JP89. Is there any talk in academic circles about this?

It always seemed silly to me when financial advisers talked about the power of compounding when selling me on their 401k plans. The assumption they instructed me to make was somewhere between 8%-12% (depending on the year) which represented the “long term average return of equities.” That always seemed to be extremely optimistic to me- reasonable given the history of the market thus far, but how likely is such a trend to continue?

]]> By: Mike in Nola http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-death-of-buy-and-hold/comment-page-1/#comment-125543 Mike in Nola Tue, 11 Nov 2008 16:31:46 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8943#comment-125543 Steve: Nobody expects earnings growth in the short term. You'll get a rally if earnings are just not as bad as expected. Of course, if Bush wasn't being such a simple pr__k about the GM matter there might be a rally now. He could be negotiating for a restructuring of GM and Chrysler based on some principled stance, e.g. an esop buyout and a way to get rid of the labor liabilities in exchange for an injection. But, instead he's tying a simple giveaway to the car makers to exporting more jobs in a Columbia trade deal. Steve:

Nobody expects earnings growth in the short term. You’ll get a rally if earnings are just not as bad as expected. Of course, if Bush wasn’t being such a simple pr__k about the GM matter there might be a rally now.

He could be negotiating for a restructuring of GM and Chrysler based on some principled stance, e.g. an esop buyout and a way to get rid of the labor liabilities in exchange for an injection. But, instead he’s tying a simple giveaway to the car makers to exporting more jobs in a Columbia trade deal.

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