Comments on: The Lost Decade http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-lost-decade/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 11:00:47 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: mstokes http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-lost-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-126990 mstokes Tue, 18 Nov 2008 09:27:11 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9434#comment-126990 Test of this system relative to the simpler (no 5% band) version at MarketSci Blog: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2008/11/18/test-of-ablin-trend-following-strategy/ Test of this system relative to the simpler (no 5% band) version at MarketSci Blog:

http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2008/11/18/test-of-ablin-trend-following-strategy/

]]> By: Zignals http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-lost-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-126772 Zignals Mon, 17 Nov 2008 10:42:15 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9434#comment-126772 We have an alert which allows the user to set for a % move from the 200-day E/SMA: It's listed under [Price] in the drop-down menu and the alert can be sent to email, SMS, iPhone, iGoogle and Vista widget: http://www.zignals.com/main/alerts/tryoutmarketalerts.aspx Best wishes, DJF We have an alert which allows the user to set for a % move from the 200-day E/SMA:

It’s listed under [Price] in the drop-down menu and the alert can be sent to email, SMS, iPhone, iGoogle and Vista widget:

http://www.zignals.com/main/alerts/tryoutmarketalerts.aspx

Best wishes,
DJF

]]> By: dctag http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-lost-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-126443 dctag Fri, 14 Nov 2008 23:13:41 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9434#comment-126443 While it underperformed during the bubble days this is a good model. Using closing data only from 10/18/1950 to 11/13/2008 here is what I got. Percentage Returns Buy and hold 4454.17% Model 8381.75% If you had invested $10,000 Buy and hold $458,164.91 Model $848,175.10 Almost any good long term model will under perform from time to time. What a good long term model does is to preserve gains and eliminate huge drawdowns. I will take the occasional 10% drawdown any day over the occasional 40%+ drawdown. While it underperformed during the bubble days this is a good model. Using closing data only from 10/18/1950 to 11/13/2008 here is what I got.

Percentage Returns

Buy and hold 4454.17%
Model 8381.75%

If you had invested $10,000

Buy and hold $458,164.91
Model $848,175.10

Almost any good long term model will under perform from time to time. What a good long term model does is to preserve gains and eliminate huge drawdowns. I will take the occasional 10% drawdown any day over the occasional 40%+ drawdown.

]]> By: Winston Munn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-lost-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-126415 Winston Munn Fri, 14 Nov 2008 21:21:47 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9434#comment-126415 This just in from Rutters.com "The Japanese government has announced that "The Lost Decade" was not really lost at all but had only been "misplaced". According to a spokesman for Nippon Enterprises, the lost decade was, of course, "in the very last place we looked." In anticipation of the find, the Japanese government announced the Nikkei will open Monday at the 39,000 level." Good thing I closed that Toyota short today. This just in from Rutters.com

“The Japanese government has announced that “The Lost Decade” was not really lost at all but had only been “misplaced”. According to a spokesman for Nippon Enterprises, the lost decade was, of course, “in the very last place we looked.”

In anticipation of the find, the Japanese government announced the Nikkei will open Monday at the 39,000 level.”

Good thing I closed that Toyota short today.

]]> By: Bob_in_MA http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-lost-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-126411 Bob_in_MA Fri, 14 Nov 2008 21:13:10 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9434#comment-126411 VennData, I canceled my online subscription, they are definitely positioning the entire publication to be the print equivalent of Fox news. Barron's is a complete joke. If you look at their covers for the last year, the disconnect from reality would lead you to believe you were at Onion.com. In times like these, the rumor mongers will have a field day. Americans are sheep and right now they are in a panic. VennData, I canceled my online subscription, they are definitely positioning the entire publication to be the print equivalent of Fox news. Barron’s is a complete joke. If you look at their covers for the last year, the disconnect from reality would lead you to believe you were at Onion.com.

In times like these, the rumor mongers will have a field day. Americans are sheep and right now they are in a panic.

]]> By: VennData http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-lost-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-126405 VennData Fri, 14 Nov 2008 20:57:30 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9434#comment-126405 The Wall Street Journal Editorial page picked up on the loony "Democrats will take your 401(k)" meme. Their carefully worded innuendo, half truth, and conspiratorial vibe are right out of their drivel during the Clinton years. I wish that instead of burying it, all the nation news, headlines, bloggers everybody would report that the Wall Street Journal claims the Democrats will definitely take away your 401(k) We could have a "Steal" watch, clocks, daily updates reminding everyone that the Wall Street Journal actually claimed this. Their editorial page writers do not hesitate to lie and deceive. They deserve mockery and derision. The Wall Street Journal Editorial page picked up on the loony “Democrats will take your 401(k)” meme. Their carefully worded innuendo, half truth, and conspiratorial vibe are right out of their drivel during the Clinton years.

I wish that instead of burying it, all the nation news, headlines, bloggers everybody would report that the Wall Street Journal claims the Democrats will definitely take away your 401(k) We could have a “Steal” watch, clocks, daily updates reminding everyone that the Wall Street Journal actually claimed this.

Their editorial page writers do not hesitate to lie and deceive. They deserve mockery and derision.

]]> By: DL http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-lost-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-126401 DL Fri, 14 Nov 2008 20:45:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9434#comment-126401 Bruce in Tn @ 2:26 The problem is even more acute in NY City. (All those Ferrari-driving, cocaine-snorting, subprime mortgage shysters were good for something, after all). Bruce in Tn @ 2:26

The problem is even more acute in NY City.

(All those Ferrari-driving, cocaine-snorting, subprime mortgage shysters were good for something, after all).

]]> By: rwbil http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-lost-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-126393 rwbil Fri, 14 Nov 2008 20:03:45 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9434#comment-126393 I do not listen to Rush, but I do not know why it is such a shock that the government might confiscate your 401K. As far as not being legal tell that to the people who owned Fannie Mae Stock. The government is taking my money to bail out home owners. I actually paid CASH for my home, so were is my bailout. When you have a government that is insane enought to justify taking money from me and other individuals who responsible bought homes they could afford in order to reduce someone else mortgage or interest rates what else can they justify. After all there are people not saving and spending every cent they make (and then some). They can not afford to retire. We must help them and I have all that 401K money that I saved (evil me) that they can use to help out the less fortunate. I do not listen to Rush, but I do not know why it is such a shock that the government might confiscate your 401K. As far as not being legal tell that to the people who owned Fannie Mae Stock. The government is taking my money to bail out home owners. I actually paid CASH for my home, so were is my bailout. When you have a government that is insane enought to justify taking money from me and other individuals who responsible bought homes they could afford in order to reduce someone else mortgage or interest rates what else can they justify. After all there are people not saving and spending every cent they make (and then some). They can not afford to retire. We must help them and I have all that 401K money that I saved (evil me) that they can use to help out the less fortunate.

]]> By: Bruce in Tn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-lost-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-126387 Bruce in Tn Fri, 14 Nov 2008 19:26:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9434#comment-126387 http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12608223 Government finances Interesting if peeps think California is going to get out of their mess anytime soon. Buried in this article is the notion that 1/2 of all general tax revenues for the state come from 144,000 of the richest people at the top of the food chain, and that this year, these 144,000 are in the toilet...at least in regards to previous tax revenues... Interesting that when you tax such a slim portion of your population, and that group has taken a hit, that it (a very small number of people) will have a massive effect on what happens to the entire state.. http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12608223

Government finances

Interesting if peeps think California is going to get out of their mess anytime soon. Buried in this article is the notion that 1/2 of all general tax revenues for the state come from 144,000 of the richest people at the top of the food chain, and that this year, these 144,000 are in the toilet…at least in regards to previous tax revenues…

Interesting that when you tax such a slim portion of your population, and that group has taken a hit, that it (a very small number of people) will have a massive effect on what happens to the entire state..

]]> By: batmando http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-lost-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-126374 batmando Fri, 14 Nov 2008 18:48:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9434#comment-126374 @ mannwich "the enormous sales this holiday season may entice me/us to actually buy something for a change" Ditto. Having just re-gained FT employment last month at good salary plus ultra-ne-plus bennies after years of under- and un-employment and non medical insurance, I remain in the downwardly mobile mode so far as expenditures go. Yet, as my bank balances balloon (6 months-to-year of living expenses already on tap now), I'm already making a list of items formerly considered "luxury", a new wardrobe for a bigger waistline, a plasma screen (but not an SUV), that I might snap up as post-Xmas sales start happening pre-Xmas. @ mannwich
“the enormous sales this holiday season may entice me/us to actually buy something for a change”
Ditto.
Having just re-gained FT employment last month at good salary plus ultra-ne-plus bennies after years of under- and un-employment and non medical insurance, I remain in the downwardly mobile mode so far as expenditures go.
Yet, as my bank balances balloon (6 months-to-year of living expenses already on tap now), I’m already making a list of items formerly considered “luxury”, a new wardrobe for a bigger waistline, a plasma screen (but not an SUV), that I might snap up as post-Xmas sales start happening pre-Xmas.

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