Comments on: The Return of Tall Paul http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-return-of-tall-paul/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 11:00:47 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: TKL http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-return-of-tall-paul/comment-page-1/#comment-129493 TKL Sat, 29 Nov 2008 22:28:22 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11024#comment-129493 Volcker to the rescue? The one who clamored for the Fed to RAISE rates last April? Yeah, he's a real genius -- a true visionary. If only we'd followed his advice, maybe we'd be in a certifiable depression by now. And Geithner? We're supposed to be comforted by the elevation of the guy who's run the NY Fed since 2003? How did that go? (For more on Geithner, see generally http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1861895,00.html) Finally, not that the host of this blog cares, but the new system of assigning a password that I'm supposed to use just for the privilege of commenting here is far too cumbersome. Why go out of one's way to provide this site with free content? Volcker to the rescue? The one who clamored for the Fed to RAISE rates last April? Yeah, he’s a real genius — a true visionary. If only we’d followed his advice, maybe we’d be in a certifiable depression by now.

And Geithner? We’re supposed to be comforted by the elevation of the guy who’s run the NY Fed since 2003? How did that go? (For more on Geithner, see generally http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1861895,00.html)

Finally, not that the host of this blog cares, but the new system of assigning a password that I’m supposed to use just for the privilege of commenting here is far too cumbersome. Why go out of one’s way to provide this site with free content?

]]> By: toneybrooks http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-return-of-tall-paul/comment-page-1/#comment-129242 toneybrooks Thu, 27 Nov 2008 22:14:28 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11024#comment-129242 Volcker's appointment along with those of other highly respected economists have gone a long way toward mitigating fear in this market and setting the stage for this "Obama Rally." Good leadership goes a long way in restoring confidence both at home and abroad. No one really knows whether quantitative easing, which is deflationary, will prevent a depression or not. Volcker’s appointment along with those of other highly respected economists have gone a long way toward mitigating fear in this market and setting the stage for this “Obama Rally.” Good leadership goes a long way in restoring confidence both at home and abroad. No one really knows whether quantitative easing, which is deflationary, will prevent a depression or not.

]]> By: tom a taxpayer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-return-of-tall-paul/comment-page-1/#comment-129181 tom a taxpayer Thu, 27 Nov 2008 05:06:42 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11024#comment-129181 Volcker is a good man, but Obama is using Volcker as window dressing. Obama is desparately trying to calm the markets that fear him and the Democrat horde about to be unleashed in the House and Senate. Volcker will only be an ADVISOR. Volcker will have no power over any federal agency. It is delusional to believe that Obama and the Democrats controlling the House and Senate are going to take the strong medicine that Volcker might recommend. Obama is throwing sand in the eyes of the market. Volcker is a good man, but Obama is using Volcker as window dressing. Obama is desparately trying to calm the markets that fear him and the Democrat horde about to be unleashed in the House and Senate. Volcker will only be an ADVISOR. Volcker will have no power over any federal agency. It is delusional to believe that Obama and the Democrats controlling the House and Senate are going to take the strong medicine that Volcker might recommend. Obama is throwing sand in the eyes of the market.

]]> By: Juan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-return-of-tall-paul/comment-page-1/#comment-129127 Juan Wed, 26 Nov 2008 22:04:19 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11024#comment-129127 otto, While Summers may not have 'designed this mess', it seems reasonable to believe that he could not have been appointed Sec. of Treasury had he not been on board with the "stock market Keynesianism'* of the 1990s. *substituting private for public deficit supported not through rising corporate profits [which, for the 1990's cycle, peaked in 1997] but through 'wealth effect' of a stock market bubble... otto,

While Summers may not have ‘designed this mess’, it seems reasonable to believe that he could not have been appointed Sec. of Treasury had he not been on board with the “stock market Keynesianism’* of the 1990s.

*substituting private for public deficit supported not through rising corporate profits [which, for the 1990's cycle, peaked in 1997] but through ‘wealth effect’ of a stock market bubble…

]]> By: m1ek http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-return-of-tall-paul/comment-page-1/#comment-129123 m1ek Wed, 26 Nov 2008 21:44:31 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11024#comment-129123 What is it about this topic that managed to pull all the Ayn Randites out of their moms' basements anyways? Aren't they ashamed enough after what happened when their boy Greenspan had the wheel? Apparently not. What, I wonder, would it actually take? What is it about this topic that managed to pull all the Ayn Randites out of their moms’ basements anyways? Aren’t they ashamed enough after what happened when their boy Greenspan had the wheel? Apparently not. What, I wonder, would it actually take?

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-return-of-tall-paul/comment-page-1/#comment-129122 leftback Wed, 26 Nov 2008 21:42:19 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11024#comment-129122 Volcker is there to try to keep everyone honest. He is the only one who knows how to stuff the genie back in the bottle once it gets out... Volcker is there to try to keep everyone honest.
He is the only one who knows how to stuff the genie back in the bottle once it gets out…

]]> By: Brett Tibbitts http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-return-of-tall-paul/comment-page-1/#comment-129120 Brett Tibbitts Wed, 26 Nov 2008 21:27:20 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11024#comment-129120 ottovbvs: IMHO, he will be working with same team that brought us much of the mess we are in.... The repeal of Glass Steagall and the refusal to regulate derivatives date back to Rubin (who is still very much an advisor to Obama even if he is in hiding due to the Citi debacle), Summers and Greenspan. (Bernanke being just a reincarnate of Greenspan, the man most responsible for the mess we are in). Geithner has been at the center of the absolute mess in picking and choosing who survives, along with Paulson and Bernanke. There is no precedent for what the government is doing right now. Obama and his team seem to be saying that we are going to double and triple down on what the current Bush team is doing, because it isn't enough. Yet there is no evidence that this will work. Yes, the banking crisis seems to be abating for now, but we are creating huge banks with bigger problems. I see no evidence of Volcker's advising that we have to take the hard medicine that we took in the 70's and 80's....what is going on now is that the smart team has arrived and the sun is going to shine. It seems to me IMHO that the car companies need to go through bankruptcy...plain and simple. The home builiding companies need to go through bankruptcy....plain and simple. And the big banks should be split up into regional banks with new management when they come to the government for help ....that will also create more jobs btw. At some point, the Fed gov won't be able to rescue or fund the rescues anymore...why don't we start owning up to that hard reality now instead of going down the track of creating billions of dollars of more debt that our children will be left holding and THEN figuring out that what we have done won't work . If we don't watch out, our children will be houseboys to the Chinese if we don't get our house in order and keep expecting the Asian countries to buy our debt. ottovbvs: IMHO, he will be working with same team that brought us much of the mess we are in…. The repeal of Glass Steagall and the refusal to regulate derivatives date back to Rubin (who is still very much an advisor to Obama even if he is in hiding due to the Citi debacle), Summers and Greenspan. (Bernanke being just a reincarnate of Greenspan, the man most responsible for the mess we are in). Geithner has been at the center of the absolute mess in picking and choosing who survives, along with Paulson and Bernanke.

There is no precedent for what the government is doing right now. Obama and his team seem to be saying that we are going to double and triple down on what the current Bush team is doing, because it isn’t enough. Yet there is no evidence that this will work. Yes, the banking crisis seems to be abating for now, but we are creating huge banks with bigger problems.

I see no evidence of Volcker’s advising that we have to take the hard medicine that we took in the 70’s and 80’s….what is going on now is that the smart team has arrived and the sun is going to shine.

It seems to me IMHO that the car companies need to go through bankruptcy…plain and simple. The home builiding companies need to go through bankruptcy….plain and simple. And the big banks should be split up into regional banks with new management when they come to the government for help ….that will also create more jobs btw.

At some point, the Fed gov won’t be able to rescue or fund the rescues anymore…why don’t we start owning up to that hard reality now instead of going down the track of creating billions of dollars of more debt that our children will be left holding and THEN figuring out that what we have done won’t work . If we don’t watch out, our children will be houseboys to the Chinese if we don’t get our house in order and keep expecting the Asian countries to buy our debt.

]]> By: ottovbvs http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-return-of-tall-paul/comment-page-1/#comment-129105 ottovbvs Wed, 26 Nov 2008 20:36:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11024#comment-129105 Brett Tibbitts Says: "Plus, he now has to work with a far different team than Ronald Reagan’s team. He will be working with a team that designed much of the mess we are in" Volcker was appointed by Carter and fired by Reagan ie. he didn't re-appoint him as he preferred Easy Al who is actually one of the prime culprits for this mess. I'm not sure how messrs Geithner and Summers designed this mess, no doubt you can tell us. Brett Tibbitts Says:
“Plus, he now has to work with a far different team than Ronald Reagan’s team. He will be working with a team that designed much of the mess we are in”

Volcker was appointed by Carter and fired by Reagan ie. he didn’t re-appoint him as he preferred Easy Al who is actually one of the prime culprits for this mess. I’m not sure how messrs Geithner and Summers designed this mess, no doubt you can tell us.

]]> By: ottovbvs http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-return-of-tall-paul/comment-page-1/#comment-129101 ottovbvs Wed, 26 Nov 2008 20:29:30 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11024#comment-129101 Of course it's encouraging but not particularly surprising since Big Paul has been advising Obama for months. At 83 there was no way he could carry the weight of probably the second most important, first at this precise moment, cabinet spot. This keeps him close, putting in his five cents along with Summers. As David Brooks rather grudgingly admitted in his column the other day, so far Obama's picks are almost as good as the hype. We've clearly got a grim 2009 stretching in front of us and to be fair quite a lot of the heavy lifting as far as stabilizing the financial system is concerned is already in the works. I don't see any sustainable market recovery until second half of next year so there's no hurry. The Dow's going to be at or around the 8000 mark for the forseeable future which is worse than I expected with continuing volatility. There are some bargains out there if you are interested in long term investments. Of course it’s encouraging but not particularly surprising since Big Paul has been advising Obama for months. At 83 there was no way he could carry the weight of probably the second most important, first at this precise moment, cabinet spot. This keeps him close, putting in his five cents along with Summers. As David Brooks rather grudgingly admitted in his column the other day, so far Obama’s picks are almost as good as the hype. We’ve clearly got a grim 2009 stretching in front of us and to be fair quite a lot of the heavy lifting as far as stabilizing the financial system is concerned is already in the works. I don’t see any sustainable market recovery until second half of next year so there’s no hurry. The Dow’s going to be at or around the 8000 mark for the forseeable future which is worse than I expected with continuing volatility. There are some bargains out there if you are interested in long term investments.

]]> By: Brett Tibbitts http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/the-return-of-tall-paul/comment-page-1/#comment-129095 Brett Tibbitts Wed, 26 Nov 2008 20:17:50 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11024#comment-129095 The financial world is 100% positive on Paul Volcker's being able to achieve superhuman results. That alone makes me nervous. He is now 81 years old (remember, John McCain was too old to be President at 72 according to the media and Democrats). Plus, he now has to work with a far different team than Ronald Reagan's team. He will be working with a team that designed much of the mess we are in. I certainly hope I am wrong, but there is a chance that Volcker's results this time will be far more like the results he had under Jimmy Carter than Ronald Reagan - the Reagan period is when he achieved his "superhuman" moniker. The financial world is 100% positive on Paul Volcker’s being able to achieve superhuman results. That alone makes me nervous. He is now 81 years old (remember, John McCain was too old to be President at 72 according to the media and Democrats). Plus, he now has to work with a far different team than Ronald Reagan’s team. He will be working with a team that designed much of the mess we are in. I certainly hope I am wrong, but there is a chance that Volcker’s results this time will be far more like the results he had under Jimmy Carter than Ronald Reagan – the Reagan period is when he achieved his “superhuman” moniker.

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