I received a call from a journalist asking me what were the worst calls for 2008 — by the media, by the specific pundits, and others.

My initial reaction was anything Ben Stein said in print, and anything Don Luskin said on Kudlow & Co.

But there are obviously many others, and we are taking names:

Add the specific bad bad call you want to see up inlights in a major magazine. Use the comments and I will forward them to our writer friend.

~~~~

Update: Here’s the online version:

The worst media calls of 2008
Elizabeth Ody
Kiplingers, December 30, 2008

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/the-worst-media-calls-of-2008.aspx

Category: Financial Press, Really, really bad calls

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

108 Responses to “Worst Calls of 2008”

  1. Boomer108 says:

    Cramer’s predictions for 2008 made 1/2/08. http://nymag.com/news/businessfinance/bottomline/42392/
    I like Cramer, but ..

  2. hipster says:

    Anything Brian Wesbury has said/says

  3. E says:

    Technically, this was in 07, but it was so spectacularly bad that it should be considered:

    ===========================

    The Recession Debate Is Over [Larry Kudlow]

    There ain’t no recession.

    Today’s ADP private jobs survey of 189,000 could produce a 200,000 non-farm payroll job gain for November. I don’t know — these wacky BLS numbers are subject to huge revisions. But the ADP was a huge number. In fact, jobs seem to be picking up major steam from their August low, rising in September and October. And now I’m expecting a good increase in November to be reported by the BLS this Friday.

    Plus, profits are stronger than people seem to understand. The ISMs are fine. Productivity, reported out today, soared to over 6 percent annually in the third quarter. That’s the best number in four months for output per person.

    On top of that, business inflation is zero. Flat. Nada.

    The recession debate is over. It’s not gonna happen. Time to move on.

    At a bare minimum, we are looking at Goldilocks 2.0. (And that’s a minimum). The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth splendid year with many more years to come.

    12/05/07 04:04 PM

  4. drmalaka says:

    How about Citi putting buy calls on Freedie and Fannie all the way down for $50 and a sell call at $1.

  5. F. Horne says:

    I would like to propose an entry for the Bad Call Hall of Fame:

    Larry Kudlow’s repeated gloating assertions back in 2003 or so, that the Iraq War would pay for itself with its own oil revenue. He presented the war–which was then prospective–as a leveraged buyout.

    Kudlow: Often wrong, but never in doubt.

    F. Horne

  6. Marcus Aurelius says:

    “The fundamentals of our economy are strong…”

    – George W. Bush

  7. af says:

    From Fortune “Best Stocks for 2008″. Jon Birger recommending Merrill Lynch

    Question: What do you call it when an $8 billion asset writedown translates into a $30 billion loss in market cap? Answer: an overreaction.

    Even if Merrill writes down another $6 billion in the fourth quarter, stocks are valued on future earnings. There’s little reason to believe this will have a big effect on 2008 profits, which analysts estimate at $7.68 a share. That means Merrill is trading at a mere eight times 2008 earnings (with a 2.4% dividend yield).

    Why are we so confident that the mortgage debacle won’t bleed into 2008? Two reasons. The first is Merrill’s new CEO, John Thain. Thain used to run the mortgage desk at Goldman, and it’s hard to believe he would have taken the Merrill job if the problems were worse than they appeared to be. The second reason is that financial panics are almost always overblown. When this market bounces back, as surely will happen, Merrill stands to post sizable gains as it writes up the same assets it was forced to write down.

  8. Charlatan says:

    So many to choose from with Cramer. In addition to the January predictions posted above by Boomer, I would make the following three additions at least. First, the most arrogant of his multiple bottom calls during the year: 7/31/2008 11:48 AM EDT By Jim Cramer “Yes, You Heard Me — That Was the Bottom. Fundamentals have changed, and we are not going back down to where we were.” Second, a very unfortunate bullish call based on lower oil prices in a September piece entitled “The Bounce Means the Crash Can’t Happen” 9/5/2008 1:05 PM EDT By Jim Cramer, in which he states, “And if oil goes below $100, then you will see a wave of buying, not selling, into this market….” (Note, Barry Ritholtz correctly said at the time that bullishness over lower oil was crazy given that it was much more a symptom than a cure.) Third, the single most despicable thing by far that Cramer has ever written in the history of his career at theStreet.com was not a prediction but an assertion on April 1, 2008: “Was there anyone out there who more loudly announced this credit crisis before it happened than I did?” Barry, it would be so nice if you could tell this reporter just how atrocious it is for Cramer to make a claim like that in 2008 given his many and varied “subprime is contained; buy the brokerage stocks” comments well into 2H 2007.

  9. lunatic fringe says:

    Jeez, talk about your turkey shoots…

    I’m gonna have to go with Paulson and Berbanke saying the effects of subprime are contained. It was obviously wrong at the time and was proven to be as wrong as a call can be. And the fact that these guys haven’t resigned in shame is something short of amazing.

    In China there would have been taken out back and shot. In the US, they’re given $700 billion in taxpayer money to waste.

  10. BigBeluga says:

    I have two:

    1. Humble Student of the Markets “$100 oil before $150, but $200 before $50″ call July 11th.

    2. I hereby nominate myself for calling a bottom for Verasun when corn hit $8 a bushel over the summer, and subsequently getting wiped out.

  11. urbandigs says:

    Cramer made a call in JAN/FEb that the natl housing market would not only bottom and reverse course, but that there would be a shortage of supply as sales volume surges to pick up the bargain basement prices of houses…he was so damn confident in that rant, on this call.

  12. AGG says:

    Scholes was recently quoted saying the current financial crisis is due to excessive government regulation. Amazing fellow…

  13. CNBC Sucks says:

    1. Me – for predicting that Obama would win 90% of the popular vote; I obviously overestimated the intelligence of…never mind, I am tired of pissing off people

    2. CNBC – someone has called a bottom for some asset class on that network everyday in 2008

    3. You – for switching to WordPress [BR: WP rocks - Up yours! ; ) ]

    4. Brian Wesbury – I was going to write a yearend post awarding the Brian Wesbury Worst Forecast of the Year to Brian “Dow 15K” Wesbury, but it isn’t yearend yet

    5. You – for bringing up 2008′s worst calls when it isn’t yearend yet; we still have 5.5 weeks in 2008 and anything can happen in that span of time

  14. Ian leNobel says:

    How about dick Bove for recommending that C and BAC were “generational buying opportunities” in March of 2008.

    ~~~

    BR: He was right — they were generational buys . . . You won’t get back to breakeven unless you hold onto them for at least another generation . . .

  15. AGG says:

    Paulson said “This is about the taxpayer”, when pitching the bailout to congress.

  16. AGG says:

    Bush urging us not to investigate why or how the financial crises happened but to concentrate on fixing what is broken.
    Yes, of course your car doesn’t run. Forget about those guys with the tools and parts of your engine in the pickup truck with Texas plates driving away, I know a place in Texas where we can buy replacement parts for your engine and fix all your problems. That’s the important thing.

  17. Scott F says:

    Don’t hate investment bankers for raking in millions. Invest in their absurdly profitable (yet still undervalued) outfits and share the wealth.

    * By James J. Cramer
    * Published Apr 30, 2007
    * http://nymag.com/news/businessfinance/bottomline/31275/

    Stop envying Goldman Sachs’ Lloyd Blankfein already. Don’t begrudge Bear Stearns’ Jimmy Cayne and Lehman’s Dick Fuld their millions. Let Merrill’s Stan O’Neal and Morgan Stanley’s John Mack get paid more than Croesus. You heard it here first: They deserve it. In fact, they deserve more than they earn now.

    Those five men are underpaid because they are about to make you very rich if you buy their stocks. Personally, I’m partial to Goldman Sachs, the most undervalued stock of the quintet. But the truth is, you can own shares in any one of these companies and I would expect you to make 50 percent on your money within the next year, and double it within the next three. Despite their immense profitability, the stocks of these companies are some of the least expensive of all the thousands I follow, and, after crushing declines since the year began, they’re ready to begin a steep ascent.

    First, let’s talk about why these stocks are cheap. Moving product to generate trading commissions, once a mainstay of these firms, has diminished markedly in the past decade. The buying and selling and underwriting of stocks and bonds, which used to generate gigantic profits, has seen its share of the bottom line almost vanish, crushed by brutal competition. Nonetheless, the perception remains on Wall Street that equities matter greatly, and that commissions on those equities are the difference between good and bad profits for the whole entities. That’s totally untrue. I envision a day when these firms won’t even charge commissions if you put your money with them. So basing an investment decision on whether trading is up or down—as many of the analysts do who opine on these stocks—is ludicrous. That faulty analysis produces the beautiful phenomenon called undervaluation.

    WILL SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN TO ME HOW THIS F&%$ING MORON IS STILL ON TV ?!?

  18. metalsrus says:

    The “Decoupling” theory.

    ~~~

    BR: Link? Pundit?

  19. Charlatan says:

    BR, you already mentioned Stein, but particularly bad was his assertion in 1H that the market was going down because it was in Wall St.’s interest that it do so. Remember that?

  20. jswede says:

    Cramer most famously called July 15th the bottom – with conviction, and more than a few times, in several outlets. I recall a good half-dozen, of not a full dozen, doing the same in Aug though.

  21. longshort says:

    Cramer, Kudlow, Stein, Greenspan, all the long only pumpers who come on CNBC, Tom Lee (JPM), Arjun Murti (GS $150 crude fanning a bubble), Google/Apple/Rimm lovers …

  22. alcatraz23 says:

    Abby Joseph Cohen: 12/07 on CNBC predicting S&P @ 1675 by end of 2008. I think she got paid $52mln in total comp in 2007; I bet she takes home a little less this year.

    http://wapedia.mobi/en/Abby_Joseph_Cohen

  23. jakester says:

    I ran into Stein at LAX in the AA lounge a few years back and asked him about gold. He told me that it is a “terrible investment, don’t even think about it”. When I got back, I proceeded to acquire quite my load and were still holding today ;) Thanks Benny!

  24. Scott F says:

    LUSKIN for the past 2 years
    http://cunningrealist.blogspot.com/2008/05/yeah-that-worked-out-well.html

    The latest installment (the first one is here). Some readers are probably familiar with Don Luskin. I rarely watch financial TV, but as I click through the channels he seems to be on fairly frequently. His profile was pretty high a few years ago during the debate over Social Security reform. Luskin holds himself out as someone worth listening to, and he’s not shy about calling others “always wrong.”

    I got curious about Luskin’s own record. How’d he do on the subprime crash, one of the most important chapters in the history of financial markets? I took a look at his stuff from the past year to find out (note the dates, which are important). As I explain at the end of the post, there’s a special reason why Luskin’s calls deserve scrutiny:

    April 27, 2007: This earnings season is especially sweet for me, and not just because I love to see bloviating blowhard bears on television make fools of themselves. …There virtually can’t be a recession on the horizon. The world is awash in financial liquidity. Anything that goes wrong — like the housing slowdown or the subprime mess — is easily absorbed by the massive amount of money available in the world.

    June 29, 2007: Through the end of the year, it’s going to be great for stocks. With no contagion from subprime, and the Fed on the sidelines, there’s nothing to stop the economy from growing a lot faster than “moderately,” which means that corporate earnings are going to keep growing, too. So abstracting from the occasional correction here and there, stock prices should pretty much keep making new all-time highs through the end of the year.

    July 6, 2007: …I appear on CNBC about once a week, usually on a panel with other experts. …And in my expert opinion, the bears — permanent and otherwise — are in for another big disappointment here. Consider the facts behind my belief. Earnings are cheap compared to interest rates, which are still low. The economy is re-accelerating and earnings are booming. Liquidity is plentiful. The Fed is on the sidelines.

    And the best fact of all is the bears themselves. The very fact that they keep worrying fills me with confidence and optimism. They’re always wrong, it seems. The only calamity they’re going to get is the reputation damage of being wrong, once again.

    July 27, 2007: So what words are left to describe a really big down day like Thursday? How about, “Stocks became a better bargain than ever!”

    August 3, 2007: While it’s been a turbulent couple of weeks for stocks, the resiliency of the market in the face of rampant panic and pessimism has been very encouraging.

    That means two things. First, at these prices, even though stocks are still near all-time highs, they are nevertheless bargain-priced. Second, the credit crisis that has triggered the recent volatility really isn’t all that threatening. …

    So it’s a mess to be sure. But it’s not a real mess — it’s just a psychological mess. …

    Stocks will have to live with a little uncertainty, while we see just how “brief” this brief period of adjustment is. But the credit markets will repair themselves and stocks will be at new highs before you know it.

    August 24, 2007: Everyone’s saying that the financial system is “broken” thanks to losses in subprime mortgages, and the collapse of exotic loan securitization structures like collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. So how come the financial sector of the S&P 500 has performed better than the overall market during this alleged meltdown?

    Guys and gals, take a stress pill and count to 10. This is nothing. At least for most investors. …

    This is like Hurricane Katrina. If you lived in New Orleans when it hit, then it was a profound personal tragedy. Thousands of such personal tragedies added up to lots of money, call it $100 billion plus. But in the grand scheme of things in the overall economy, it doesn’t even register on the radar.

    To paraphrase Humphrey Bogart in “Casablanca,” the troubles of a few thousand little people don’t amount to a hill of beans in this crazy economy. …

    Bernanke is no politician. He’s an academic, and a serious student of monetary policy. He’s not thinking about the cover of Time. That’s why he hasn’t cut the fed-funds rates, and why he’s not going to. …

    So here’s the play: Buy stocks on dips. There will plenty of dips while the panic plays itself out. But the bottom is in, and I think you can buy with confidence now.

    August 31, 2007: It’s hard to find any fellow bulls out there anymore. And oddly enough, those few that I encounter all base their bull case on something I totally disagree with. They think that the Fed is going to save the markets by slashing interest rates. I disagree. I don’t think the Fed will cut interest rates at all. …

    There will be no rate cut. And stocks will be at new all-time highs by the end of the year.

    You heard it here first!

    October 26, 2007: Right now everyone thinks the credit markets are dead, dead, dead. …

    No one expects Wall Street to get right back up on its feet and start up a new credit cycle, with all the profits — yes, and all the risk and all the foolishness — that such a thing implies.

    Yet I think there is a decent chance that some version of that will happen, and quite soon.

    November 30, 2007: The bottom is in. Yes, I know I’ve been too early in saying to buy stocks during the correction from the October highs. But all the classic signals of a durable bottom are in place now.

    December 7, 2007: On Wall Street, vultures don’t go after dead things. They go after things that are alive and very cheap. And right now, they’re going after troubled financial stocks in a big way, which means it’s time to move in. …

    The fact that all these deals are taking place says that the assets that have been thought to be most at risk during the credit crisis of the last six months have finally hit rock bottom. And that, in turn, says some very positive things about the economy and the stock market in general. …

    The vultures have come in and set a floor for the value of existing debt. Now the uncertainty has been resolved as to where that floor is, and it’s all upside from there.

    December 28, 2007: Bearish expectations that lending will necessarily contract because of damaged bank capital structures suffer from a fallacy of static analysis…

    As long as investors, businesses and consumers have good reasons to keep borrowing, I think that the banking system will continue to be fully able to keep lending

  25. That is truly astonishing . . .

  26. Ken M. says:

    Oh –so THAT’s what “Ben Steinery” means!

    Just wonderin’ if Barney Frank was still preaching – into this year – about how sound and healthy Fannie and Freddie “are”.

    Here’s a video from 2004. Barney, Maxine Waters, et. al. are insisting that there is “nothing wrong”: http://www.youtube.com/v/_MGT_cSi7Rs&hl=en&fs=1

    –Ken

    … agree — WordPress is definitely a better venue than Typepad; now if we could just get rid of that obnoxious animation, at the top, when the page first loads …

  27. Mike in Nola says:

    Anything being said on the discussion of how to save CITI on CNBC right now.

  28. Mannwich says:

    @Scott F: I couldn’t even finish reading your Luskin list. How is this doofus still making money “managing money” and appearing on TV like he knows anything? Unbelievable.

  29. I know I’ve said before: ~”Name Names, so that others can understand that they can’t be Understood.”

    But, at this juncture, looking back, on ’008, is Futile.

    On this Day 23 Nov, we should be looking back to ’63.

    Be wondering about ’64, ’68, ’71, ’73, what was, really, entrenched in’76, how Reagan, for all of his lovely libertarian rhetoric–understanding that he was Shot two months into 1st term– accomplished little more than kick (re-)starting a moribund Keynesian Clusterfuck that proceeded to jettison the E from the balance sheet of the u. S. of A.(writ large), and the Manufacturing base that made it possible, the E, in the 1st Place.

    For the E, of A=L+E, and the E, of E Pluribus Unum, it’s been all downhill(save the few) from there..

    But, I digress, ’tis easier to make mockery of those put up to mock us..

    though, lest I be called out for being too short-sighted, we should Wonder the delta between 1836 and 1913.

  30. Andy Tabbo says:

    i see someone already nailed Don Luskin here…he’s just too easy. I went back to your old blog and found this guys post which was a nice encapsulation Waaaay back then…

    A good gauge of how absurd the pollyannas on Kudlow are getting is the hysterical ramblings of Don Luskin. The lower the market goes the more pronounced luskin’s hand gestiulation and caustic sarcasm get. He’s been telling people to buy stocks continually all the way down. Let’s review some of his best quotes of the last 6 months:

    Don Luskin on Kudlow and Co, 12/18/2007, “You’ve just got to be a buyer and you’ve got to buy the stuff where, well you can buy anything right here, they’re giving it all away, there throwing all the babies out, their throwing all the bathwater out.” (S&P500 at the time 1455)

    Don Luskin on Kudlow and Co, 01/11/2008, “Oh my God, you’ve got to be buying stocks here, there is just an absolute panic going on you’ve just got to buy them, this is just total capitulation.” (S&P500 at the time 1401)

    Don Luskin on Kudlow and Co, 01/18/2008 “You now what, look, I admit that I’ve been calling the bottom on this decline all the way down. I freely admit it, I’ve missed this one. You know, I don’t see any fundamental changes. I’m still a bull”. (S&P500 at the time 1325)

    Don Luskin on Kudlow and Co, 03/25/2008, “This bullmarket has been born again, there’s still problems in the macro-economy, but all the worst case risks are off the table, it’s time to go in and buy junk bonds, it’s time to go in and buy leveraged loans, it’s time to go in and buy mortgage backed securities, it’s time to buy financials. All the stuff that got thrown out like babies with the bathwater we’ve been born again, it’s time to take (S&P500 at the time 1353)

    Don Luskin on Kudlow and Co, 04/09/2008, “So, we didn’t have an epic decline we’re not going to have an epic recovery, but the bull market is in-tact I think we’re going to make new highs.” (S&P500 at the time 1354)

    Don Luskin on Kudlow and Co, 5/17/2007, Stocks are only 10% off of all time highs, so everybody just relax. We’ve been in a slowdown we’re gonna be in a nice recovery here, everything is gonna be just fine. (S&P500 at the time 1425)

    Don Luskin on Kudlow and Co, 05/30/2008, “Well March 17th, Bear Stearns Monday was definitely the bottom for stocks, no question about it. (S&P500 at the time 1400)

    Don Luskin on Kudlow and Co, 06/24/2008, “Stocks are so cheap, pessimism is so thick, you don’t even need a knife to cut it you need a flamethrower or a chainsaw you gotta buy em here (S&P500 at the time 1314)

    Posted by: Dhukka | Jul 2, 2008 10:34:45 AM

  31. Andy Tabbo says:

    I felt compelled to pile on Luskin Waaay back then and posted this in combo with Dhukka…

    Dhukka:

    Spot on with Luskin. Not only is the guy getting crazier, he’s engaging in more ad hominem attacks.

    Last week, he was blasting Gary Shilling for his Long Treasuries call. “Gary…you were WRONG about buying Treasuries…Financials have done better than those lousy Treasuries.”

    It was a ridiculous attack. Shillings basic view is that the market is going lower and that Treasuries are good place to hide. And, his basic view, has been totally correct. And there’s Luskin, just Blasting him. What a douchebag!

    That marked the bottom of the 10 yr bond last week….

    - AT

  32. CaptiousNut says:

    Cramer is too easy. Heck, 2.5 weeks ago he pounded the table for JPM. It’s since lost 50%!

    http://marginalizingmorons.blogspot.com/2008/11/jim-cramer-unrepentant-moron.html

    Ken Fisher’s been pretty bad. He put the buy on Citigroup at $25 in March. Ouch.

    Then less than two months ago he put a buy on Bank of America at $34. (Note it traded down to 10.01 this week.)

    http://marginalizingmorons.blogspot.com/2008/11/yee-haw-riding-wall-street-bull.html

    Buffett’s been horrible too (e.g. GS). And he’s a scumbag to boot! It’s pretty tough to say which predictions were the *worst* – so might as well just use this opportunity to bash our personal villains.

    One more. This clown Harry Lange that runs Fidelity’s Magellan has gotten clobbered. I believe the fund was down over 60% YTD on Thursday afternoon.

    http://marginalizingmorons.blogspot.com/2008/11/skim-biz-update-fidelity-investments.html

  33. Andy Tabbo says:

    There are so many CNBC tools that I can jump on with this post….

    I guess I’m singularly focused on Luskin because he comes off as such an ARROGANT asshole. I could point out other horribly focused calls from people like Vince Farrell and Dennis Kneale, but at least with those guys you could TELL they didn’t even actually believe what they were saying. This guy Luskin comes across as some sort of authority figure who is ‘talking down’ to the audience….

    He’s truly DANGEROUS for the average investors watching.

    - AT

  34. Steve Barry says:

    T. Boone Pickens, so called oil expert on July 8, 2008:

    “I’ll stick with $150 (per barrel),” Pickens, who is also CEO of BP Capital, told “Squawk Box”. “Demand going down, that’s what will bring this thing in better balance”.
    Asked where he saw the price of oil going in the next two years, he said: “You could get it back down to about 100.”

    Every Wall Street CEO: Our capital position is strong.

    David Kotok 10/13/08: Dow will be 10,700 by year end

  35. Byno says:

    CaptiousNut

    Warren Buffett is a scumbag? WTF?

    Tell ya what: you give away your entire life’s work – approximating tens of billions of dollars – upon your death, and even then you’ll have no standing to call Mr. Buffett a scumbag.

    Christ on a cracker Barry, who let the trolls out?

  36. JMH says:

    Barry,

    I think you have to factor this question with regard to TV personalities. They are definitely compromised by the requirement to get ratings. I think a show host who was persistently bearish, even if correct, would never have high enough ratings to stay on the air. That means Kudlow would be exempted from the contest. Cramer has a show, but he also comments on TSC. But he is essentially a media figure, not someone who is paid for research. Note this also excludes people like Stein, Bowyer and Dennis Kneale. Kneale has to be the Worst. Ever. But, I don’t expect anything from him since he is an editor. People who are guests on TV who have analysis / forecasting as their primary occupation should be the sample set. You could also make two categories, show hosts and non-hosts, explaining the distinction to the journalist.

    Luskin has been amazingly bad, but he sure is entertaining in a J.R. Ewing sorta way, so we need to keep him on TV. The first person who comes to mind is Fritz Meyer. He may not be the worst, but he must be inthe running.

  37. llandson says:

    Anyone who follows Financial News knows that all of the worst calls have been covered in these comments (e.g. Stein, Luskin, Cramer, Kudlow, etc.). I find it funny that it seems that the worst calls are more a function of the caller’s conviction that the merit of the call itself.

    So let me nominate something for a new but related category: most embarrassing financial news-related youtube clip. The winner: any of the clips from CNBC or Fox News/Fox Business in which Peter Schiff forecasts precisely what is about to happen to the markets and the blowhards listening to him mock him, laugh, etc., Laffer included.

    The Fox Saturday morning lineup does a terrific job of advising people how to lose money. Cramer, too, for that matter.

  38. Byno,

    I’ll second what ‘Captious Nut’ went with.

    Do some homework, see if you can tell the difference between HaedlineNews and Reality.. see if you can find his take on UST’s business propisition, for starters..If you think WEB’s saving grace is backstopping the B&M G Foundation, try understanding what they’re into..

    Usually, your posts are decent, but with that one, above, you leave yourself open to be being understood as a Fanboy, at best, Kool-Aided, at worst..

  39. Rightline says:

    Don’t have any links right now but my pick is Bill Miller. Constantly calling the bottom and doubling down into the hole on FNM FRE, and anything housing or financial. His top 10 holdings 2008 was a who’s who to short list.

  40. Andy Tabbo says:

    llandson:

    I agree with you, tho’ it must be pointed out that some of what Peter Schift has said has been way wrong. He was really bearish the Dollar and Treasuries and real bullish gold. It goes to show you how difficult a market can be. If Peter Schift really “understood” his fundamental call, he would have understood that the dollar was going to rally hard in a debt crunch as huge dollars would be required to pay back the debts. Furthermore, he would understood that in a serious financial calamity, the only market for REALLY big dollars to flock to would be US bonds. For alas, the gold market is TOO tiny of a market to realistically plow dollars in to….

    So, yes, he’s been correct and I definitely agree with his thesis on the US economy. Unfortunately, he’s a victim of a sort of cognitive dissonance…..the “need” to be “invested” in “something.” In a deflationary spiral/debt crunch, unfortunately, the best trade is to be short everything except the U.S. dollar. Every asset class falls in value.

    - AT

  41. No one is saying anything about the massive Citigroup bailout tonight? Or at least what is supposedly going to be announced sometime tonight.

  42. Steve Barry says:

    Anybody notice HOV, LEN and BZH look about to go BK?

  43. super_trooper says:

    Punk Ziegel & Co. “veteran banking analyst” Dick Bove, buy banks (march 08)

    “The last time an opportunity of this nature existed to buy bank stocks this cheap was in 1990,” the analyst wrote. “The next time will be in 20 years. This is a once in a generation opportunity.”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/financial-crisis-over-buy-banks/story.aspx?guid={B419EAC3-D3DB-4D20-B1FA-903FF86D35B0}&dist=hplatest

  44. OK says:

    What about Dick Bove calling the banks a “buy of a generation” a few months ago?

  45. Bruce in Tn says:

    Richard Widows for nominating Ken Heebner as the Best Fund Manager Alive…

    http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/financial-advisor-forum/10430490.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

    Ken Heebner: Best Fund Manager Alive?

    The Street.Com July 26, 2008….

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CGMFX#chart1:symbol=cgmfx;range=3m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

    As you can see, his rabbit’s foot began to molt…

  46. inkblue says:

    Buy GM on June 2, 2008 by Barron’s (VITO RACANELLI). Tanked that very week.

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121218756175534083.html

  47. Well, I told readers I did a covered call trade on GM in June. And I reported I bought ALL covered calls three weeks ago. Great calls, eh. Fortunately, no readers.

    Why hasn’t anyone mentioned Ben B’s revelation in the latest New Yorker that last August he thought everything was dandy?

    Or Bill Gross’s promise that he could make the TARP market work and hasn’t for pretty obvious reasons?

    Here’s the worst call of the year: Barney Frank is calling on Banks to lend to poor credit risks.

    Now if that doesn’t sound familiar.

  48. paulyarbles says:

    I nominate our Lord and Savior du jour, Tim Geithner.

    ———————

    These concerns have been heightened in some quarters by the problems currently being experienced in the subprime mortgage sector. It will take some time before the full implications are understood and the full impact can be assessed. As of now, though, there are few signs that the disruptions in this one sector of the credit markets will have a lasting impact on credit markets as a whole.

    Indeed, economic theory and recent practical experience offer some reassurance against both these specific concerns and more general worries about the implications of credit market innovations for the performance of the financial system.

    The rapid growth in these new types of credit instruments is, of course, a sign of their value to market participants. For borrowers, credit market innovation offers the prospect of increased credit supply; better pricing; and a relaxation of financial constraints. For investors, new credit instruments bring the prospect of broader risk and return opportunities; the ability to diversify portfolios; and increased flexibility. And for lenders, innovations can help free up funding and capital for other uses; they can help improve credit risk and asset/liability management; and they can improve the return on capital and provide new and cheaper funding sources.

    By spreading risk more broadly, providing opportunities to manage and hedge risk, and making it possible to trade and price credit risk, credit market innovation should help make markets both more efficient and more resilient. They should help make markets better able to allocate capital to its highest return and better able to absorb stress.

    What should policymakers do to mitigate these risks?

    We cannot turn back the clock on innovation or reverse the increase in complexity around risk management. We do not have the capacity to monitor or control concentrations of leverage or risk outside the banking system. We cannot identify the likely sources of future stress to the system, and act preemptively to diffuse them.

    BLAHBLAHBLAHF*CKINGBLAH

    Insert copious amounts of fecal matter here. Make up stuff. Whatever. It doesn’t matter what garbage you spew. It all goes down the national memory hole.

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2007/gei070323.html

    ————————

    Our elite and the experts are a bunch of jackasses. Every last one of them.

  49. Didn’t Chuck Schumer start a run on Indymac? And didn’t Harry Reid start the panic selling of HIG and other life insurers. Were those bad calls, or just irresponsible ones?

    And how about all those broker types who claimed speculators weren’t behind soaring oil and commodity prices? Talk about losing your credibility!

    ~~~

    BR: Indy Mac was already bankrupt, and AIG was sliding down the tubes.
    (Methinks someone still hasn’t gotten over the election.)

  50. Pavlovs Dog says:

    Too funny about all of Luskin’s predictions, and that so many readers view him the same as I do. He tried to sue Atrios years ago for slander after Atrios called him “Krugman’s stalker”:

    http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/000855.html

    Atrios use to call him the stupidest man on the planet. Luskin tried to out him from being an anonymous blogger by filing a lawsuit. Even Drezner and many others called him out as being a jerk. Luskin looked like an idiot after Atrios turned out to have a PHD in Economics instead of being a gym teacher (as he previously said).

  51. royrogers says:

    this could be a long thread.
    Barry looked pretty smart this year compared to the herd, even guys like Pickens and Buffet.

  52. TrickStar says:

    Barry,

    If you respond to this inquiry mentioning Cramer, Kudlow, and especially Ben Stein, then I will view you as nothing more than the bearish version of them; a counter argument. A guy who leverages the market (bull or bear) to make a name for himself.

    I hope that you’re a guy who is enlightened enough to espouse mean reversion, instead.

    TrickStar

  53. TrickStar says:

    paulyarbles:

    i’m so frickin sad to say it, but the paragraphs you put up were poetic. they really were. what a great story.

    why didn’t it pan out. why have the markets forsaken us………..(insert long painful echo…)

  54. TrickStar says:

    @AT –

    In theory I like the concept NOW of being short every asset except the dollar, but that brings on SO many risks that that perhaps a better way to say it is…hold USD. Or am I missing something.

  55. TrickStar says:

    Mark Hoffer jams with a new internet proposition….Digg.com for the individual blogger comment.

    Jam on.

  56. DL says:

    I agree with the others (above) that Don Luskin has a horrible forecasting record on the stock market.

    However, he did come pretty close to calling the top in the commodities market earlier this year.

    (And for what it’s worth, a few days ago, he came out solidly in favor of gold for the first time in many months).

  57. bhupi says:

    Vince Ferrell – for every “this is the bottom” call he makes.

    Kudlow – Will stay bullish as the depression keeps getting worse and worse.

    Paulson and Bernanke – Who claim to have acted in a timely manner but clearly haven’t.

  58. TrickStar says:

    Have you guys heard of Obama’s new economic agenda:

    http://www.send-jim-cramer-to-mars.com

  59. Jojo99 says:

    Anyone remember Cramer’s call for $1600 gold around the beginning of March 2008?

    Dick Bove on Squawkbox 2008-03-19 where he said the financial crisis is over for banks?

    David Bianco, Chief Equity Strategist at UBS – The S&P will rise 25% in the second half of this year
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=787788768

    Bear market has ended, says Morgan Stanley
    Wednesday, 5 November 2008
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bear-market-has-ended-says-morgan-stanley-992370.html
    (DJI closed Nov 5 at 9140)

  60. serversam says:

    I want to nominate two of the hand puppets Kudlow has on his show. Mike Holland and Jack Gage of Forbes basically parrot back to Kudlow everything he says. I have never heard these guys disagree with Kudlow and I think that is why they are on.

  61. wildbluyonder says:

    I nominate former GS Chief Investment Strategist, Abby Joseph Cohen. Why? Sheer arrogance alone.
    Successes and Failures
    She is famous for predicting the bull market of the 1990s early in the decade. However, she failed to predict the dramatic stock market decline of the early 2000s and developed a reputation as a so-called “perpetual bull” and was ridiculed for her continuous bullish predictions after March 2000 as market index fell. Her reputation was further damaged when she failed to foresee the great crash of 2008. On a CNBC appearance in March 2008, she predicted S&P 500 at 1550 by end 2008.

    In an August 10, 2007 appearance on CNBC Abby Joseph Cohen predicted the S&P 500 would rally to 1,600 by December.

    In December 2007 Abby Joseph Cohen predicted the S&P 500 index would reach 1,675 in 2008. The S&P 500 traded as low as 741.02 by November of 2008.

    On March 8, 2008 Goldman Sachs announced that Abby Joseph Cohen was being replaced by David Kostin as the bank’s chief forecaster

    From Wikipedia

  62. Namazu says:

    1) Joseph Stiglitz has oil at $100 through 2015, providing another example (c.f. Taleb) of Alfred Nobel’s wisdom in declining to establish a prize in economics.

    2) The Fast Money brackets champion this year was Goldman Sachs. I would hasten to add that, unlike Stiglitz, the Fast Money crew are generally willing to acknowledge what they don’t know, and change their views when the facts change.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/23678635

  63. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Byron King, editor of the Outstanding Investments newsletter, sending out the same e-mail touting “Six Screaming Buys!” in precious metals mining stocks in October three different times. HL, NG, KGC all have had the snot kicked out of them before, during, and since Byron’s call.

  64. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Looking at the comments above, I’ve figured it out! Luskin says one thing on TV and then does the exact opposite in reality. That’s the only way he could still be managing anyone’s money, well, other than his mother’s. Genious!

  65. James says:

    Does Anybody remember Doug Kass turning bullish on financials on Jan 14 2008?
    http://www.thestreet.com/s/kass-katch-buy-the-financials-yes-buy/newsanalysis/investing/10398482.html?puc=_tscana

    ———————–

    In all fairness, Doug Kass was correct in identifying many of the issues early on when so many others were partying on. Where he went wrong is he didn’t appreciate the severity of the issues. But then again, how many did? Meredith Whitney was one of the few analysts who understood the problems with the banks. But even she never saw C going to zero, which is where it (and BAC and JPM for that matter) would go with out the US Treasury.

    There are too many culprits to name, from TV pundits like Kudlow and Cramer, to bank chiefs and government leaders who remained optimistic despite the growing evidence to the contrary. In this context guys like Kass, Barry Ritholtz, Roubini, Alan Abelson and just a handful of others now stand out.

  66. shawtlow says:

    Bob Dahl of Blackrock confidently called the mkt a bottom prior to the BS bailout. When the mkt was at 13k on the dow, he was sure stocks would head higher. Also, GE’s former CEO, Jack Welch (sp?) called a bottom prematurely, along with Zell and other.

  67. shawtlow says:

    jim rogers had many calls on commodities that are not working.

  68. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Hey, look! ESPN picked the Cubs to win the 2008 World Series. Three playoff games later, wait til next year!

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2008/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3617228

  69. busterman343 says:

    Luskin’s Wasington Post article in September has to be one of the absolute worst calls of all time. I believe it was called “quit doling out that bad economy line”. The market began it’s epic drop no more than a few hours after that article went to print. The market was down 30% in no time….at least this is better than the mutual fund he started in 1999 when he lost 75% in 18 months and shut it down. I don’t even know how he has a job.

  70. vcram says:

    Worst call? How about blogger Bill Cara at billcara.com He managed to call a new bull just in time for the plunge in October.

    Sept 26 “As I say, let’s get serious, and not miss this buying opportunity as equity markets transition from Bear to Bull. Today’s open will give you plenty of opportunity to buy into weakness. That’s what good traders do.”

    Sept 30 “Switching back to capital markets, I reiterate my belief and recommendation that the New Bull is starting, largely because of the cash on the sidelines plus the unprecedented (almost) one trillion dollar injection of funds by the Fed ($630 billion) and other central banks on Monday, and by the trillion dollars that were injected in the past few months…most traders today are also affected by a psychological condition called ‘in extremis’. They are in temporary shock, unable to make decisions. Usually when they do, as seen in the past, they make the wrong ones because they listen to people saying the sky is falling. They listen to wolves dressed in sheep’s clothing. Those are not the people to be listening to. I’m here to tell you that Armageddon has not arrived;

  71. srick says:

    @ metalsrus: I guess the pundit would be Stephen Roach for the global Decoupling

  72. stackm says:

    Let’s not forget Lisa Hess, who recommended buying Fannie Mae at 35 in March… then recommended “doubling down” in August:

    “For the taxable investor, I’d suggest taking losses. If you bought Fannie, sell it and hold Freddie instead for 31 days; then get back into Fannie. The 31 days will keep you from having a “wash sale” problem with the IRS, and holding the sister stock will reduce your risk of getting whipsawed–seeing mortgage stocks rebound just when you’re on the sidelines. If you bought Freddie, sell it and buy Fannie.

    For tax-deferred accounts, I’d take a big breath and double down, buying more at the current low prices. Risks include the housing market getting even worse and equity holders getting hammered by a Treasury intervention. Not a trivial possibility.”

    http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/forbes/2008/0915/154.html?partner=links

  73. jpm says:

    Geez, I have a file of crappy calls. I think that the financial media has proven its complete and utter uselessness over the course of the meltdown.

    Just a few not already mentioned:

    _______________________________________

    CNBC: Panicky Investors Making Some Bone-Headed Moves
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/26976758

    _______________________________________

    A Market Crash Is Coming
    By Selena Maranjian
    August 24, 2008
    Comment (6)

    9 Recommendations

    I hope this doesn’t surprise you: Another stock market crash is on its way.

    That’s the bad news. The good news is that the crash probably isn’t right around the corner.

    http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2008/08/24/a-market-crash-is-coming.aspx

    _______________________________________

    DAVID WEIDNER’S WRITING ON THE WALL
    Chicken Littles and the U.S. banks
    Commentary: Enough with the panic — the facts don’t support ‘crisis’ label

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/banking-crisis-crisis/story.aspx?guid={E6DA732A-CDEF-4064-BF44-51F42206F4D9}

    _______________________________________

    Mark Hulbert 9/18: The stock market’s dramatic comeback from its intraday lows on Thursday constitutes a textbook illustration of a “key reversal day.”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mark-hulbert-thursday-constituted-key/story.aspx?guid={76AEFF83-8BDD-4BAF-9169-3FE85AD8445E}&dist=hplatest

  74. flipspiceland says:

    I couldn’t agree more. I was all set to write the NYX about Ben Stein. He did write something yesterday that I finally agreed with.
    That we could be entering a 1970′s type economic scene where everything just sort of plods along for many years, no growth, no
    big declines, just a blah economy with a lot of embedded unemployment and scraping by for the majority of the world.
    Kind of socialism lite.

  75. dead hobo says:

    1: Thanks, all, for not mentioning The Theory of Boone and saving it for me. “We pump 85mbd of oil per day and use 87mbd of oil per day” … implying that an infinite price for oil is normal, justifiable, to be expected, and will probably reach a second level of infinity in a new universe in a few days.

    2:) The GS oil pricing memos all deserve a round of applause. Kudos for originality and for starting an extreme oil prediction industry.

    3) “The Theory Of Demand Destruction” which implies that the inherent price of oil, and by association, all commodities, is by nature astronomically high because supply can never approach demand. Therefore, if prices fall, it must be due to demand destruction. And if demand falls enough to lower prices then it must be a signal from the Heavens about the impending End Of Times. Kiss your sweet ass goodbye and pray for high oil prices to return and save us.

    4) Luskin is always wrong. Now he’s predicting bad times. Does this forecast 1600 S&P by inference? I’m paralyzed with confusion now.

    5) Commodities are an ‘Asset Class” and make a good basis for long investing in new products based on them. Until people needed to think up new ways to consume credit, commodities were a consumable, with the exception of gold, which is a religion.

    6) Naked short sellers should be a protected asset class … by inference … from all the howls from them and from a sympathetic media when their ability to steal without consequences was taken away.

  76. royrogers says:

    DL Says:
    November 23rd, 2008 at 10:52 pm

    I agree with the others (above) that Don Luskin has a horrible forecasting record on the stock market.

    However, he did come pretty close to calling the top in the commodities market earlier this year.

    (And for what it’s worth, a few days ago, he came out solidly in favor of gold for the first time in many months).///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    DL, Don Luskin has a good track record on calls on major turning points on gold.
    He nailed the gold bottom back in around 2000, and got bullish.
    If he has now turned bullish on gold again, I would listen.
    His other 99 calls have been wrong, so don’t listen to anything else he says.

  77. Moss says:

    Must include Jerry Boyer and Brian Wesbury somewhere for denying many many times on the air that we were in or would have a recession.

  78. dead hobo says:

    Again, this is by inference and a little deep … but here goes:

    “Commodities are an asset class and credit is a consumable”

    This is like saying black is the new white or down is the new up. Except for gold, which is more like a negotiable religion than a commodity, all commodities exist to be consumed. They change value by the moment. If you want more you, basically, go out and get more. What you go out and get, you use up. Then you go out and get some more. The means of production is the asset class, not the production itself.

    Long only investing in commodity price indexes implies profit can only be had if prices continue to rise, just as your mutual fund goes up (hopefully) after you put money in. Commodities can only rise indefinitely if demand for them rises indefinitely. Since demand for commodities is relatively fixed over short periods of time, then price needs to be a function of something else in order to keep it going up.

    Here comes unlimited credit … almost credit without consequence. Borrow today, inflate the price of whatever you bought with it, pay it back tomorrow … or not. You might just roll the transaction forward and go double or nothing.

    Credit becomes a consumable and commodity investing become a justification for newly create credit. They switched places. Technically speaking, commodity prices reflected a high and growing demand for consumable credit, not for any intrinsic value derived from the commodity.

    Thus, credit became a consumable and commodities became an asset class. Commodities became the new tulips. And even Nobel prize winners and people far more educated than moi fell for it. Anyone who noticed a couple of problems with this new paradigm were lambasted or treated as kooks.

    This “new economics” was a major bad call of 2008.

  79. ewilcox says:

    How about Tom Brown’s

    “The Times’ Hit Job on First Marblehead – Unfair and Nonfactual”

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/46507-the-times-hit-job-on-first-marblehead-unfair-and-nonfactual

    At the time First Marblehead was trading at $32 (9/6/07).

  80. Clem Stone says:

    Abby Joseph Cohen’s June ’08 prediction for S&P @ 1500 by the end of 2008.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={f6a09f6c-17ec-49b6-994c-d9114213cfb4}

  81. BigBadBear says:

    What about the prediction that the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) would drag their fatter cousins (Germany, France and UK) into recession?

  82. Scott F says:

    That seemed to be a pretty damned good predicition!

  83. BigBadBear says:

    Scott: unless your I in PIGS is for Ireland you’re incorrect.

    Read’em and weep:

    http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=na010q1

    Germany and France went into recession in Q2, amongst the “PIGS” only Italy was in recession in Q2 and not all of the PIGS are in recession in Q3. So the big fat schwein and the lard ass couchon took the little piggies into recession not the other way around.

  84. eren says:

    from Barrons:

    2008 FORECAST:
    Wall Street strategists weigh in
    on stocks, bonds, profits and
    industry sectors.

    Larry ADAM

    Deutsche Bank
    S&P 500 ’08 Target: 1640
    Profits: $99.40 Growth: 9%
    10-Yr Treasury Yield: 4.75%
    Fed-Funds Rate: 3.0%
    Favorite Sectors: Technology,

    Health Care, Industrials
    To Avoid: Consumer
    Discretionary, Utilities

    Richard BERNSTEIN

    Merrill Lynch
    S&P 500 ’08 Target: 1525*
    Profits: N/A Growth: -7.3%
    10-Yr Treasury Yield: 3.7%
    Fed-Funds Rate: 2.5%
    Favorite Sectors: Consumer Sta

    ples, Health Care, Telecom, Tech.
    To Avoid: Energy, Materials,
    Financials, Consumer Discretionary

    Thomas LEE

    JPMorgan
    S&P 500 ’08 Target: 1590
    Profits: $100.21 Growth: 8.6%
    10-Yr Treasury Yield: 5.0%
    Fed-Funds Rate: 4.5%
    Favorite Sectors: Financials, En

    ergy, Health Care
    To Avoid: Consumer Discretionary
    and Staples, Materials, industrials

    Tobias LEVKOVICH

    Citigroup
    S&P 500 ’08 Target: 1675
    Profits: $96.50 Growth: 5.2%
    10-Yr Treasury Yield: 4.40%*
    *
    Fed-Funds Rate: 3.5%
    Favorite Sectors: Semiconductors,

    Diversified financials, Specialty Retail
    To Avoid: Materials, Real Estate,
    Capital Goods

    David BIANCO

    UBS Securities
    S&P 500 ’08 Target: 1700
    Profits: $101 Growth: 10%
    10-Yr Treasury Yield: 4.0%
    Fed-Funds Rate: 3.5%
    Favorite Sectors: Industrials,

    Technology, Energy
    To Avoid: Utilities, Telecom, Health
    Care, Consumer Discretionary

    Tom McMANUS

    BofA Securities
    S&P 500 ’08 Target: 1625
    Profits: $98 Growth: 5.4%
    10-Yr Treasury Yield: 5.0%
    Fed-Funds Rate: 3.0%
    Favorite Sectors: Health Care,

    Consumer Staples, Utilities
    To Avoid: Consumer Discretionary,
    Financials

    Abhijit CHAKRABORTTI

    Morgan Stanley
    S&P 500 ’08 Target: 1525
    Profits: $93 Growth: 3%
    10-Yr Treasury Yield: 4.5%
    Fed-Funds Rate: 3.75%
    Favorite Sectors: Health Care, Con

    sumer Staples, Energy, Technology
    To Avoid: Financials, Consumer
    Discretionary, Materials

    Jonathan MORTON

    Credit Suisse
    S&P 500 ’08 Target: 1650
    Profits: $95.30 Growth: 5.5%
    10-Yr Treasury Yield: 4.25%
    Fed-Funds Rate: 3.5%
    Favorite Sectors: Technology, Bev

    erages, Pharmaceuticals
    To Avoid: Regional Banks, REITs,
    Consumer Discretionary

    Abby Joseph COHEN

    Goldman Sachs
    S&P 500 ’08 Target: 1675
    Profits: $95 Growth: 5.6%
    10-Yr Treasury Yield: 4.0%
    Fed-Funds Rate: 3.0%*
    *
    Favorite Sectors: Health Care,

    Cons. Staples, Info. Tech., Energy
    To Avoid: Consumser Discretionary,
    Financials, Materials

    Ian SCOTT

    Lehman Brothers
    S&P 500 ’08 Target: 1630
    Profits: $85.65 Growth: -5%
    10-Yr Treasury Yield: 4.2%
    Fed-Funds Rate: 3.25%
    Favorite Sectors: Technology,

    Financials, Telecom
    To Avoid: Consumer Staples,
    Utilities, Industrials

    Jonathan GOLUB

    Bear Stearns
    S&P 500 ’08 Target: 1700
    Profits: $100 Growth: 12.4%
    10-Yr Treasury Yield: 5.0%
    Fed-Funds Rate: 4.75%
    Favorite Sectors: Health Care,

    Energy
    To Avoid: Consumer Discretionary,
    Financials, Technology

    François TRAHAN

    ISI Group
    S&P 500 ’08 Target: 1750
    Profits: $100 Growth: 7%
    10-Yr Treasury Yield: 4.0%
    Fed-Funds Rate: 3.5%
    Favorite Sectors: Financials,

    Consumer Discretionary
    To Avoid: Materials, Industrials

    *12-months target from 11/30/07. **Average over 4Q 2008.

  85. dss says:

    The bloviaters on CNBC take the cake. Whether it is Kramer, Kudlow, Luskin, or the various anchors, reporters and CEO’s, their eternally rosy predictions, calls of a bottom and general cheerleading are dangerous to the public who don’t know the difference between a “show” and real commentary. Too many sophisticated and unsophisticated rubes tune in and actually think they are getting unbiased investment advice and economic guidance because now CNBC has disclaimers and Kramer gives his “profits” to charity.

    We were treated to such an example of their incredibly inane insistence on CNBC that the PPT did not exist, while suggesting that anyone who thought they did exist were listening to internet rumors while wearing their tinfoil hats and dodging black helicopters.

    The invisible PPT also puts out press releases just to throw the brainiacs at CNBC off their game.

    The damage done by CNBC to American portfolios is incalculable.

  86. greg says:

    Does it not make sense that all the calls would be bad, given the fact that most of the people making the calls only have to beat the S&P each year to be considered top money managers. How often do you see guests on CNBC who have actually made 20, 30 or 40% returns. Maybe they should change their focus and invite guests on who actually know how to make money.

  87. Soylent Green Is People says:

    I’m in Orange County CA – South OC to be specific. There is a widely read local guy, Gary Watts, who predicted sunshine and rainbows, powered by unicorn farts and lucky charms for 2008. I can email you his thoughts on 2008 – a 5 or so page .pdf document. It’s a laughable read (ask Dr. Housing Bubble) if it wasn’t so sad.

    Many hundred of Real Estate Agents peddle Gary Watts nonsense as known fact which put many home buyers in harms way. It’s undiluted Kool-Aid at it’s vintage best.

    SGIP

  88. me says:

    “We may not be in a recession. I don’t know what that term means.”

    Senator Saxby Chambliss, R-GA

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjauxs2j5W4&eurl=http://georgiademocrat.org/node/996

  89. Shnaps says:

    My personal favorite:

    “Our economy is powerful, productive and prosperous. And I look forward to working with Hank Paulson to keep it that way.”

    Who said it?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJ-LO7SDZpE

  90. bobnoxy says:

    Gee, what about Abby Joseph Cohen’s end of 2008 target for the S&P 500?! How badly did that one miss?

  91. eli.jones@gmail.com says:

    The nefarious Doctor Mark Mobius and his call here around July 23rd:

    “In our view, $80 oil is the worst-case scenario.”

    or

    “They’re not going to be putting a lot of money in anything other than maybe gold or cash. Gold prices will probably continue to do better.”

    Mainly, I just like Doctor Mobius because his name is perfect.. and he appears to be some sort of Bond Villain. I mean.. of course the dorks on CNBC or whatever will have made wrong calls.. BUT DR. MOBIUS?!!

    The only explanation is that he is lying so that he can dump his holdings on suckers.. so.. from now on, I suggest you watch Dr. Mobius.. and not do what he says (like buy cellphone companies or India/China stocks which he said the other day on Bloomberg).. but suss out what he’s really up to.. like.. Why is he in Africa all the time? Maybe look into investing in Africa. :)

  92. MikeDonnelly says:

    How about  Mark Neilson of MacroEcon Global Advisors . Mark is the economist in the WSJ survey that still does not think we are in a recession and thinks there is a 48% chance of a recession in the next 12 months.  You can either go to the WSJ survey  or my short write up.

  93. Happy4LA says:

    Look, Cramer is an idiot … he goes on Regis and Kelly and says this

    July 25, 2008 on the Regis and Kelly Show

    Regis Philbin: These are tumultuous times

    Jim Cramer: I was incredibly negative a year ago. I came on July a year ago. I said don’t buy a house. Don’t buy stocks. I was very worried. I am now the exact opposite. Everyone else is worried.

    I am feeling pretty darn good about things. Gasoline’s going down. It will be at $3.50 in 2 weeks. Your house price is stabilizing. Food’s coming down. I’m a buyer! I’m a buyer! I’m a buyer!

    Regis Philbin: Is this the time to buy a house?

    Jim Cramer: I want to buy not one house. I want to buy 2 houses. I wanna go…I’m going out to California in another month and a half. Prices were up very big there; looking at the Palm Springs area. Prices down 2/3rds [sic Wrong!]. When are we gonna wait until we are down 100%?

    Kelly Rippa: Isn’t it time for Regis to buy Joy that vacation home she’s dreamed of on the Florida beach? Isn’t it time for Regis?

    Jim Cramer: Well, no. On the west side it’s already moved up. It’s too late. Can you believe it? East side, east side is there, 50% down. East side, I want you to go down with me and we go buy a couple. Go buy a couple! —

    But, but … doesn’t Jim Cramer get any credit for hiring Lenny Dykstra on his webstite, Thestreet.com? His option strategy is 81-0 on the year! Kudos to Cramer and Lenny Dykstra. I didn’t see anyone mention Dykstra, and for good reason. The guy definitely knows how to hit them out of the park either in baseball or in finance.

  94. Happy4LA says:

    SGIP, I’d be interested in your Garry Watts piece… can you email it to Happy4LA@aol.com?

  95. MorticiaA says:

    eren beat me to the punch… I copied that article and saved it to see what the outcome would be this year. I was going to single out Trahan for being the most bullish of them all. Hey, on the good side, four of them said to avoid financials.

    Everyone else has listed all of my usual suspects: CNBC, Geo W… BR: will you start a discussion with calls for people who made calls that were actually close to reality?

  96. Moss says:

    Forgot about Art Laffer. The famous u-tube video w/Schiff.

  97. winslow says:

    One can only listen for Kudlow for so long without puking. This is why we are in this mess. People who think they are always right.