The Phantom Recession is Already Over

http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2008/6/16/the_phantom_recession_is_already_over

II. 02.01.2008
Jeff Osborne is in love with MEMC (WFR).
http://cleantech.com/news/2241/a-good-year-for-renewable-energy

… St. Peters, Mo.-based MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) gets top marks in the cleantech sector for 2008 in the report, with Osborne raising Thomas Weisel’s year-end price target on MEMC to $105 from $81.

III. all year long
J. Pichel of PJC flip-flopping of LDK Solar’s price target.
https://piper.bluematrix.com/bluematrix/utilities/client_specific/piper_COI_ATR?id=3002

P.S. While they were still doing investment banking work for LDK Solar Pichel had a buy rating with a
target price of 52+. Unfortunately this data has been removed from PJC.

IV. 15.01.2008
J. Pichel of PJC is reiterating his Buy rating and $65 price target on Yingli Green Energy.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Yingli+Green+Energy+(YGE)+Sinks+on+CFRA+Note,+Piper+Jaffray+Defends+The+Stock/3266066.html
https://piper.bluematrix.com/bluematrix/utilities/client_specific/piper_COI_ATR?id=3010

“”This is far and away the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson declared on a recent visit to Fortune’s offices.”
July 12 2007

Financials had already topped earlier in 2007 and the absolute market top was made a couple of months later. Oh and anyone with a brain could see the destruction that the popping of the RE bubble and the debt structures (CDO’s) with faulty ratings, would jolt on to the economy.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/07/23/100134937/index.htm

How the best economists and finance people in the world did such an appalling job at predicting the seriousness of the leveraged insanity is absolutely unacceptable. Even common sense folks out there saw it coming. The post 9/11 recovery was a complete credit driven sham, exacerbated by the feds egregious pandering to the current political administration to secure the election and subsequently followed up by the biggest cashout in the history of this country. It the fed lacks AT MINIMUM above average predictive ability with the economics of our country then we have to ask ourselves, what good are they? Having smart guys who can prevent scenarios which lead to what we are experiencing today is much more important than the presence of these clowns who deal with problems only as they pop up… and do a knock up job at that.

Sorry for the sardonic twang here, guys. I must read Barrys commentary too much.

Somebody has conveniently done a compilation of those moments. You can find it at:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8r-nDBx5Jg

http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/marketcommentary/10419671.html

“Shares of American International Group (AIG – commentary – Cramer’s Take) have been battered this year and are now selling at a little more than 5 times the consensus estimate for 2009. In a recent report, Morgan Stanley (MS – commentary – Cramer’s Take) pegs the price at book value and advises buying this world-class franchise. The company has had a terrible time valuing the credit default swaps on the balance sheet and has raised additional capital, which has shaken the market’s confidence. AIG’s reputation has been tarnished, but it is a global leader in insurance. The mark-to-market writedowns on much of the swap portfolio will be at least partially reversed and marked up over the next few years. I have been so wrong on this one, but I believe at $36 a share, the risk/reward is very much in our favor. ”

High 30s to 1.77. My recollection is that he had been long it for quite some time beforehand.

He also recommended GE and CMCSK in this same column. They haven’t fared quite as poorly.