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2008 Investment Guides Are HILARIOUS
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On December 31, 2008 @ 8:30 am In Financial Press,Humor,Markets,Really, really bad calls,Trading | Comments Disabled
Via New York Magazine, comes this amusing collection of bad forecasts for the 2008 year:
• Jon Birger, senior writer, Fortune Investors Guide 2008 
Smart investors should buy [Merrill Lynch] stock before everyone else comes to their senses.”
Merrill’s shares plummeted 77 percent.
• Elaine Garzarelli, president of Garzarelli Capital, Business Week’s Investment Outlook 2008 
Buy some of the most beaten-down stocks, including those of giant financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch.
As of January 1, none of these firms will still exist.
• Sarah Ketterer, CEO of Causeway Capital Management, Fortune Investors Guide 2008 
“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been pummeled. Our stress-test analysis indicates those stocks are at bargain basement prices.”
Fannie and Freddie had lost 90 percent of their value.
• Jon Birger, senior writer, in Fortune Investors Guide 2008 
Our bet is that in a stormy market investors will gravitate toward, GE, the ultimate blue chip.
GE’s stock price tumbled 55%, and it’s on the verge of losing its triple-A credit rating.
• Archie MacAllaster, chairman of MacAllaster Pitfield MacKay in Barron’s 2008 Roundtable 
“Bank of America will [not cut its dividend], I think they’ll raise it this year. My target price for the stock is $55.”
BofA share price now hovers around $14, and it has slashed its dividend in half.
• James J. Cramer, “Future of Business” New York Magazine 
“Goldman Sachs… finishes the year at $300 a share. Not a prediction — an inevitability.”
Goldman Sachs’ share price was $78, and the firm announced its first quarterly loss — $2.2 billion.
Yes, the 2008 investment guides were HILARIOUS — but what makes you think the 2009 guides will be any different.
The Folly of Forecasting 
6/7/2005 1:05 PM EDT
Worst Predictions for 2008  (December 2008)
2008 Investment Guides Are HILARIOUS 
By: Daily Intel
New York, 12/22/08 at 6:01 PM
Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/2008-investment-guides-are-hilarious/
URLs in this post:
 Fortune Investors Guide 2008: http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0712/gallery.investorsguide_stocks.fortune/8.html
 Business Week’s Investment Outlook 2008: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_53/b4065044231464_page_2.htm
 Fortune Investors Guide 2008: http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/10/pf/ahead_in_2008.fortune/index.htm
 Fortune Investors Guide 2008: http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0712/gallery.investorsguide_stocks.fortune/6.html
 Barron’s 2008 Roundtable: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120132064710419211.html
 New York Magazine: http://nymag.com/news/businessfinance/bottomline/42392/
 The Folly of Forecasting: http://www.thestreet.com/_tscana/comment/barryritholtz/10226887.html
 Worst Predictions for 2008: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/worst-predictions-for-2008/
 2008 Investment Guides Are HILARIOUS: http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/12/2008_investment_guides_are_hil.html
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