Comments on: Congratulations, Its (Officially) a Recession

By: sinful mistress

sinful mistress — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 00:10:54 +0000

You guys are smart and all, but the chief “brains” over at Limbaugh & Hannity declared this the Obama recession weeks ago.

By: DeDude

DeDude — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 22:27:39 +0000

I also just “covered my shorts”

Checked the 401K account and covered my shorts in sh*t

By: DL

DL — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 21:17:31 +0000

Mannwich @ 3:39:

Yes, I’m inclined to “cover my shorts” at about 790 (SPX), only because the “easy money” will have been made by then.

By: norcal

norcal — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 20:49:11 +0000

Here’s the chart porn I found via Google Search:

Market Performance During Recessions: 1900—2008
http://www.bespokepremium.com/members/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/big-tips-market-performance-during-recessions.pdf

By: Mannwich

Mannwich — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 20:39:51 +0000

I vote 800 this leg down and then a rally.

The next leg down after the rally in late Dec/early ‘08 will be to 700 and then we’ll rally again. The rallies are all getting shorter and hitting lower highs each time while lows are deeper and lower each time. Not a good sign.

By: DL

DL — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 20:36:13 +0000

leftback @ 2:58

“I think a rally is coming”

I definitely agree. The question is, does it begin from the 800 level or the 700 level?

By: Vermont Trader

Vermont Trader — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 20:27:48 +0000

Well, now we can move on..

I officially kick off the debate as to whether we are in a depression or not.

I say.. not yet!

By: leftback

leftback — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 19:58:54 +0000

I think a rally is coming. The PPT doesn’t trade stocks but the big box mutual funds like to come in and trade about 3.30. Which is why I like to get in just in front of them. The PPT does buy bonds, though. Ben just admitted as much. Of course they also sell them too….

By: norcal

norcal — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 19:55:50 +0000

Barry,

Isn’t this a hugely BULLISH event?

I recall some Chart Porn showing that by the time NBER gets around to announcing a recession, the markets start to turn anticipating a recovery 6 months out.

Can you re-post?

By: Mannwich

Mannwich — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 19:53:02 +0000

@DL: Which is why I own GDX (although trimmed my position last week). Waiting to re-load on another nice dip. The key to this market (besides reading this blog) is staying patient and I’m not a patient guy by nature, so this is not easy.