Initial Jobless Claims totaled a much higher than expected 573k, almost 50k more than forecasts and up from a revised 515k last week. It’s the highest since Nov ’82 and Continuing Claims were also sharply higher than expected at 4.429mm, 329k above the estimates. The Labor Dept did caveat today’s #’s by saying that the week after Thanksgiving usually has the biggest increase in non seasonally adjusted claims filings due to the catch up filing of those that didn’t do it the holiday week before so one has to average the past two weeks which gets us to 544k, still obviously very elevated.



That’s a sick half-pipe – wish I had my board with me bro!

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

13 Responses to “Continuing Claims Chart”

  1. Winston Munn says:

    Well, now we know where all that sideline cash is going – it’s moving into unemployment claims and sending that chart parabolic.

    We have reached the Rubicon – behind lays deflation; ahead lies super-inflation. Will we halt, cross the river, or drown?

    Got gold?

  2. I just wonder when the Case/Schiller rollercoaster video is going to be updated?

  3. danm says:

    Well, now we know where all that sideline cash is going – it’s moving into unemployment claims and sending that chart parabolic.


    Now we know where all that cash WILL be going: to make ends meet.

  4. Andy Tabbo says:

    One of the interesting aspects of Elliot Wave Analysis is that it applies to things other than ‘markets.’ You can see wave relationships in government statistics, polls, etc…

    This is sort of ominous. In this model you had an A wave up in 2001, then you had a B wave that retraced to 61.8/70.7 zone and now you have a C wave that has exceeded the length of the A wave, which means we will likely see a 1.618*A=C target.

    Continuing Claims will hit ~5.3MM

    I’m not sure what that means in terms of unemployment %, but that looks like the min. target using wave analysis.

    - AT

  5. Big J says:

    Things are going to get worse. Anyone checked the latest S&P estimates on the S&P website lately??? Just got lowered again…they now have the Index earning only $42 per share for 2009 in As Reported Earnings. This is the lowest forecast I’ve seen yet. 2008 is forecast to come in at $48…still horrible when you consider how much cutting has been going on. If you’re no longer a bear think again. Housing, stocks, everything will probably go further down. When the current suckers rally ends look out below.

    S&P 650 in 2009.

  6. leftback says:

    AT, are you playing a bounce off 870?

  7. mudpuppy says:

    Just when you think the market will go down, it goes up. How do ya figure?

  8. Andy Tabbo says:


    yes. i can now a see a nice a=c down into a decent 50% retracement target at 50%.

    if this 868 level doesn’t hold, then i see another cluster of targets 847 – 856, so there’s definitely layers of support nearby.

    - AT

  9. going broke says:

    When I called yesterday to sign up for UI benefits, it took me >3 hours to get through calling every minute or so. The clerk said they are understaffed for the amount of calls they receive, and it’s escalating week after week.

    @ Winston… Got gold?

    Started buying DGP weeks ago and more the other day when I posted about gold. I’ll dump some soon, maybe next week, put a $2+ stop-loss on the rest.

  10. AGG says:

    Classic exponential. So the race among corporate bosses is to see who can conserve more capital because profits don’t have much of a future right now. This thing is a self perpetuating panic now. Capital preservation in a credit crunch is like swiming upstream of a waterfall; it gives you some time to try to get to get help. So now the greedy hoarders will get the media to complain about all those greedy, lazy people on unemployment sucking up tax dollars. We need a new definition of useless eater: corporate ceo, the board members, their friends and their family.

  11. Jojo99 says:

    3X as many unemployed as available job openings!

    Job openings rapidly dwindle as unemployment pushes upward

    by Tobin Marcus

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics has released the October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, which indicates that there were only 3.1 million job openings in the economy, down nearly 25% from the start of the recession in December 2007.

    While that’s bad, what makes matters worse is that this rapid decline in job openings has been accompanied by a sharp increase in unemployment. In October 2008 the number of job seekers topped 10 million, more than three times the number of jobs available. The acceleration has been startling: the number of job seekers per opening has skyrocketed from 1.9 at the beginning of this recession to 3.3 less than a year later in October 2008. The rapid increase in this ratio clearly indicates the weakness of the current labor market and the difficulty that workers are having finding jobs. Unfortunately, this ratio will likely continue to worsen for the foreseeable future, given that in November unemployment increased by another 250,000 jobs.


  12. Stuart says:

    Looking at that chart and extrapolating what is likely to happen across the automotive sector over the coming months, I wrote this before but it applies more than ever and that is, I sure as hell hope Obama fully grasps the depth and scope of what is happening all around and is ready for it, because we are all going to need him to be. It’s looking more dire by the week, especially factoring in corporate news and the gauntlet of bad news we still have to get through. Tomorrow’s retail sales being one small data point.

  13. DavidB says:

    Now THAT is disconcerting.