Comments on: Crude Oil = $41 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-41/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:04:19 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Sogol http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-41/comment-page-2/#comment-131564 Sogol Mon, 08 Dec 2008 18:06:04 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11997#comment-131564 For historical Brent and WTI crude oil interactive graphs visit http://www.fxeconostats.com For historical Brent and WTI crude oil interactive graphs visit http://www.fxeconostats.com

]]> By: Rider http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-41/comment-page-2/#comment-131327 Rider Sun, 07 Dec 2008 13:35:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11997#comment-131327 One thing I find frustrating in the financial media is the plethora of serial bottom callers. Whether it is the long only managers or permabulls, they should only get one shot to call the market bottom, and then refrain from making additional calls as the market goes lower. Hey, you called it on March 17 Bob Doll, so shut the fcuk up!! That would disqualify about 90% of the people on TV these days. One thing I find frustrating in the financial media is the plethora of serial bottom callers. Whether it is the long only managers or permabulls, they should only get one shot to call the market bottom, and then refrain from making additional calls as the market goes lower. Hey, you called it on March 17 Bob Doll, so shut the fcuk up!! That would disqualify about 90% of the people on TV these days.

]]> By: Edward Lim http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-41/comment-page-2/#comment-131313 Edward Lim Sun, 07 Dec 2008 06:28:05 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11997#comment-131313 I read that China will be in a recession by mid of next year. China has extremely high unemployment figures and its once booming construction industry is slowing down tremendously. Once China goes down... the world economy will need at least three years to recover to its former glory. This recession is very serious. I read that China will be in a recession by mid of next year. China has extremely high unemployment figures and its once booming construction industry is slowing down tremendously. Once China goes down… the world economy will need at least three years to recover to its former glory. This recession is very serious.

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-41/comment-page-2/#comment-131281 Mannwich Sat, 06 Dec 2008 22:26:34 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11997#comment-131281 @harold becuba: There have to be millions (especially retail investors) of investors who never sold all the way down and are just waiting for a solid, lengthy rally to get the heck out. Who in their right minds really trusts the "market" anymore? We may get a few nice rallies like we did from '29 - '32, but there will be big-time selling into those rallies over the next couple of years. This thing may be in the 7th inning but we are going into extra innings and there is no curfew to halt the game. @harold becuba: There have to be millions (especially retail investors) of investors who never sold all the way down and are just waiting for a solid, lengthy rally to get the heck out. Who in their right minds really trusts the “market” anymore? We may get a few nice rallies like we did from ‘29 – ‘32, but there will be big-time selling into those rallies over the next couple of years. This thing may be in the 7th inning but we are going into extra innings and there is no curfew to halt the game.

]]> By: Rider http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-41/comment-page-2/#comment-131271 Rider Sat, 06 Dec 2008 21:43:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11997#comment-131271 The other disconnect this week, other than stocks rallying on the jobs number was the CDS spreads widening while the stock market was going up. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/12/05/50119/cds-update-an-extreme-week/ The graph shows that cds for single A credit on the financials is near its high for the year, above the levels seen at Bear and Lehman's collapses. The other disconnect this week, other than stocks rallying on the jobs number was the CDS spreads widening while the stock market was going up.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/12/05/50119/cds-update-an-extreme-week/

The graph shows that cds for single A credit on the financials is near its high for the year, above the levels seen at Bear and Lehman’s collapses.

]]> By: harold hecuba http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-41/comment-page-2/#comment-131250 harold hecuba Sat, 06 Dec 2008 18:53:51 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11997#comment-131250 manwich ya hit the nail on the head. here is another word that is misplaced and used in the wrong context "panic" panic? i would call what is happening being pragmatic, realistic. i don't listen to the media or read newspapers but are the buffoons calling for the end of a recession yet? i believe we just had the warm up and recession starts in dec8 not dec 07 manwich

ya hit the nail on the head. here is another word that is misplaced and used in the wrong context “panic” panic? i would call what is happening being pragmatic, realistic. i don’t listen to the media or read newspapers but are the buffoons calling for the end of a recession yet? i believe we just had the warm up and recession starts in dec8 not dec 07

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-41/comment-page-2/#comment-131225 Mannwich Sat, 06 Dec 2008 16:56:11 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11997#comment-131225 @harold becuba: And do you know just how many other people (ahem, ME) are thinking the very SAME thing and just chomping at the bit to liquidate any remaining longs (and I mean ALL of 'em, including "retirement accounts") into some serious irrational market strength? This thing ain't over yet. Not even close. Gonna be a wild ride in '09. @harold becuba: And do you know just how many other people (ahem, ME) are thinking the very SAME thing and just chomping at the bit to liquidate any remaining longs (and I mean ALL of ‘em, including “retirement accounts”) into some serious irrational market strength? This thing ain’t over yet. Not even close. Gonna be a wild ride in ‘09.

]]> By: harold hecuba http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-41/comment-page-2/#comment-131217 harold hecuba Sat, 06 Dec 2008 16:35:31 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11997#comment-131217 BKM your scenario is EXACTLY what i am looking for. unfortunately it seems this rally trade is once again getting overtelegraphed and crowded. i hear of very few reputable hedgies and traders who have any shorts on at all and are hiding in t-bills like myself. the market action yesterday must have sent the media in a tizzy. bulls seem to be crawling out like army ants. obviously this makes me second guess the scenario. the conomic data is not bad it is god awful it seems longs are playing with fire here. what happpens if mr. market decides to give them the old 1 2 and TKO's the herd. i will not be upset to miss a rally but if it does somehow transpire and trade to 1070-1090 area good lord what an opportunity for new shorts and liquidating one's remaining equities. BKM

your scenario is EXACTLY what i am looking for. unfortunately it seems this rally trade is once again getting overtelegraphed and crowded. i hear of very few reputable hedgies and traders who have any shorts on at all and are hiding in t-bills like myself. the market action yesterday must have sent the media in a tizzy. bulls seem to be crawling out like army ants. obviously this makes me second guess the scenario. the conomic data is not bad it is god awful it seems longs are playing with fire here. what happpens if mr. market decides to give them the old 1 2 and TKO’s the herd. i will not be upset to miss a rally but if it does somehow transpire and trade to 1070-1090 area good lord what an opportunity for new shorts and liquidating one’s remaining equities.

]]> By: DOW_1500 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-41/comment-page-2/#comment-131153 DOW_1500 Sat, 06 Dec 2008 11:33:24 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11997#comment-131153 $ 40 for crude is great!!! I can now much better afford paying the bill for heating oil! I hope it will trade at $ 20 end of 2009 and $ 10 end of 2010! Deflation is great! Inflation is only good for the rich!!! - I hope the rich get this time a lesson they never forget! But I think we will get a rally in crude + 50 to 100 % from the low into spring 2009. $ 40 for crude is great!!! I can now much better afford paying the bill for heating oil!

I hope it will trade at $ 20 end of 2009 and $ 10 end of 2010! Deflation is great! Inflation is only good for the rich!!! – I hope the rich get this time a lesson they never forget!

But I think we will get a rally in crude + 50 to 100 % from the low into spring 2009.

]]> By: Rider http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-41/comment-page-2/#comment-131152 Rider Sat, 06 Dec 2008 10:47:38 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11997#comment-131152 Also, four days later and we are still trading inside of Monday's range. Doesn't exactly speak to strength, despite an up day on a bad jobs number. Also, four days later and we are still trading inside of Monday’s range. Doesn’t exactly speak to strength, despite an up day on a bad jobs number.

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