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	<title>Comments on: Crude Oil = $46</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-46/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-46/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
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		<title>By: John Pozzi</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-46/comment-page-1/#comment-130845</link>
		<dc:creator>John Pozzi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Dec 2008 03:51:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11822#comment-130845</guid>
		<description>Global Resource Bank at www.grb.net exchanges US$ for ecocredit.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Global Resource Bank at <a href="http://www.grb.net" rel="nofollow">http://www.grb.net</a> exchanges US$ for ecocredit.</p>
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		<title>By: willid3</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-46/comment-page-1/#comment-130683</link>
		<dc:creator>willid3</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:01:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11822#comment-130683</guid>
		<description>i saw where it might hit $10. then we will probably have it hit 200 later if and when the economy gets off its back.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i saw where it might hit $10. then we will probably have it hit 200 later if and when the economy gets off its back.</p>
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		<title>By: Lynn</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-46/comment-page-1/#comment-130665</link>
		<dc:creator>Lynn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 18:17:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11822#comment-130665</guid>
		<description>Barry,
What&#039;s the best way to invest in oil?  I think in a few years oil prices will go back to $150, if not higher.  Do you like ETFs that invest in oil futures, oil companies, or some other product?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Barry,<br />
What&#8217;s the best way to invest in oil?  I think in a few years oil prices will go back to $150, if not higher.  Do you like ETFs that invest in oil futures, oil companies, or some other product?</p>
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		<title>By: TrickStar</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-46/comment-page-1/#comment-130616</link>
		<dc:creator>TrickStar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:10:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11822#comment-130616</guid>
		<description>Wrong.  A little higher than $12 in 1998.  About $16.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wrong.  A little higher than $12 in 1998.  About $16.</p>
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		<title>By: TrickStar</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-46/comment-page-1/#comment-130610</link>
		<dc:creator>TrickStar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:05:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11822#comment-130610</guid>
		<description>Oil was $12 in 2001/2002?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oil was $12 in 2001/2002?</p>
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		<title>By: Mark E Hoffer</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-46/comment-page-1/#comment-130605</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark E Hoffer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:52:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11822#comment-130605</guid>
		<description>d h, 

I hear ya, I understand the long-run of it, but, as you&#039;re alluding to, Oil Wells aren&#039;t light switches..

Shutting them in is a dicey proposition, sometimes, they never comeback, and even if they do, it&#039;s still an expensive proposition.

LSS: in the short-run MCOP is a useless guide..

JJ, above, delineates some of the other examples to be spied..Pilgrim&#039;s Pride is an epic example.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/spy</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>d h, </p>
<p>I hear ya, I understand the long-run of it, but, as you&#8217;re alluding to, Oil Wells aren&#8217;t light switches..</p>
<p>Shutting them in is a dicey proposition, sometimes, they never comeback, and even if they do, it&#8217;s still an expensive proposition.</p>
<p>LSS: in the short-run MCOP is a useless guide..</p>
<p>JJ, above, delineates some of the other examples to be spied..Pilgrim&#8217;s Pride is an epic example.<br />
<a href="http://www.thefreedictionary.com/spy" rel="nofollow">http://www.thefreedictionary.com/spy</a></p>
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		<title>By: dead hobo</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-46/comment-page-1/#comment-130596</link>
		<dc:creator>dead hobo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:21:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11822#comment-130596</guid>
		<description>Mark E. Hoffer,

Producers will produce at a loss over the short run if they can cover their variable costs. Fixed costs and profits (the contribution margin) will be ok at $0.00 or a little less  for a while. Eventually, production will have to be withdrawn if variable costs can&#039;t be covered. This will remove supply and cause prices to rise. Of course, with something that has such massive barriers to entry as large volumes of oil, this would have to be a slow and jagged process. If production shuts down, it will take along time to ramp up again. Thus, producers will probably run at a loss for a longer time than, for example, a hamburger joint. New players in the business require special qualifications. Theory in action.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mark E. Hoffer,</p>
<p>Producers will produce at a loss over the short run if they can cover their variable costs. Fixed costs and profits (the contribution margin) will be ok at $0.00 or a little less  for a while. Eventually, production will have to be withdrawn if variable costs can&#8217;t be covered. This will remove supply and cause prices to rise. Of course, with something that has such massive barriers to entry as large volumes of oil, this would have to be a slow and jagged process. If production shuts down, it will take along time to ramp up again. Thus, producers will probably run at a loss for a longer time than, for example, a hamburger joint. New players in the business require special qualifications. Theory in action.</p>
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		<title>By: Juke Jones</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-46/comment-page-1/#comment-130592</link>
		<dc:creator>Juke Jones</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:17:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11822#comment-130592</guid>
		<description>@Mark:
“The marginal cost of the highest cost producer, which I assume is about $45, is where prices will probably stop…”

It worked in the housing industry - do you see any house owners underwater? I sure don&#039;t
It worked in the auto industry - do you see anyone with car loans in excess of price? I sure don&#039;t
It worked in the chicken/ag industry - ask Pilgrim&#039;s Pride

It works every time. In fact, I think I am going to put $100K into a lemonade stand with 10 dixie cups at the ready.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Mark:<br />
“The marginal cost of the highest cost producer, which I assume is about $45, is where prices will probably stop…”</p>
<p>It worked in the housing industry &#8211; do you see any house owners underwater? I sure don&#8217;t<br />
It worked in the auto industry &#8211; do you see anyone with car loans in excess of price? I sure don&#8217;t<br />
It worked in the chicken/ag industry &#8211; ask Pilgrim&#8217;s Pride</p>
<p>It works every time. In fact, I think I am going to put $100K into a lemonade stand with 10 dixie cups at the ready.</p>
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		<title>By: Baille Beag</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-46/comment-page-1/#comment-130591</link>
		<dc:creator>Baille Beag</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:17:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11822#comment-130591</guid>
		<description>Has anyone here been smart enough to hold onto DTO since mid-summer?  I sold mine a couple months ago because I kept hearing, &quot;oil can&#039;t fall much further&quot;!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Has anyone here been smart enough to hold onto DTO since mid-summer?  I sold mine a couple months ago because I kept hearing, &#8220;oil can&#8217;t fall much further&#8221;!</p>
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		<title>By: dave</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/crude-oil-46/comment-page-1/#comment-130590</link>
		<dc:creator>dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:17:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11822#comment-130590</guid>
		<description>an interesting chart (IMHO) would be similar to the charts that overlay stock prices with 12 month forward looking revenue/share numbers, but in this case, overlay 12 month forward looking worldwide demand for oil on top of oil prices.  Or some permutation of that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>an interesting chart (IMHO) would be similar to the charts that overlay stock prices with 12 month forward looking revenue/share numbers, but in this case, overlay 12 month forward looking worldwide demand for oil on top of oil prices.  Or some permutation of that.</p>
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