>

RealtyTrac released its November foreclosure numbers, and they were not pretty.

• November Foreclosure activity decreased 7% from October (the lowest level since June)

• Foreclosures up 28% from year ago levels;

• Foreclosure activity slowed in November due in part to recently enacted laws that have extended the foreclosure process in some states;

• 259,085 properties got a default notice or were warned of a pending auction or were foreclosed on last month;

Realtytrac VP Rick Sharga said: “We’re going to see a pretty significant storm next year. There are two or three clouds that suggest a pretty heavy downpour.” He expects monthly filings to move towards 303,000. The number of homes that revert to lenders, the last stage of foreclosure and known as “real estate owned” or REO properties, will increase to 1 million from as many as 880,000 this year, he said.

>

Sources:
November Foreclosures: Naughty or Nice?
ForeclosurePulse, 12-10-2008 11:47 PM

http://www.foreclosurepulse.com/blogs/mainblog/archive/2008/12/10/november-foreclosures-naughty-or-nice.aspx

FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY DECREASES 7 PERCENT IN NOVEMBER
RealtyTrac, Dec. 11, 2008

http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=5543&accnt=64847

Foreclosure Storm Will Hit U.S. in 2009 as Loan Changes Fail
Dan Levy
Bloomberg, Dec. 11 2008

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=au1wYjy9hoSE&

Category: Credit, Markets, Real Estate

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

44 Responses to “Foreclosures Rise 28%”

  1. spudvol says:

    That graph becomes more embarrassed every time you post it.

  2. Bruce in Tn says:

    Yes, foreclosures HAVE to rise. But the scariest general news I saw this morning (game over) is that P and G, consumer non-durables, says 2009 will be awful…good luck..

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122899385115197921.html

  3. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Going to CA in two weeks.

    Stat from MSNBC: 4 of our last 8 governors here in Illinois have been arrested, with three of those four going to jail. Care to guess about Blago’s future plans??? We’re batting .500 for crooks here!

  4. steveeboy says:

    if it wasn’t for all those poor lazy black people in utah, idaho, etc buying those McMansions this crisis would be over!

    Damn you CRA!!!!!

  5. constantnormal says:

    Wow. There are going to be some really, REALLY cheap houses on the market this summer.

    I don’t want to think about what the market value of my home is — luckily, it is not an investment, it is where I live and it’s completely paid for.

    But if, for some unimaginable reason, I should be forced to relocate, selling would be painful indeed.

  6. Mannwich says:

    No worries. The worst is behind us, right? Right? Don’t think so folks………

  7. Lugnut says:

    Time for Bob Villa to pitch “This Old Tent” to the network big wigs

  8. Winston Munn says:

    Looks to me like the market has turned – banks continue to be strong home buyers and REO is expected to rise from 880,000 to 1,000,000. Damn those bankers – they always get in on the sweet deals at the ground floor.

  9. molten_tofu says:

    Completely OT:
    This is the title of an article on finance.yahoo.com’s front page:
    “Eli Lilly’s 2009 profit forecast tops estimates”

    This is ACTUAL title of the article when you click on the title above:
    “Lilly to post 2008 loss on ImClone costs”
    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081211/eli_lilly_outlook.html

    And… this is part of the content of the actual article:

    “The Indianapolis-based company, which makes the anti-psychotic Zyprexa and antidepressant Cymbalta, said it expects earnings of $4 to $4.25 per share in 2009, below analysts’ average estimate of $4.26 per share, according to a Thomson Reuters poll.”

    WTF?

  10. jason says:

    It is rally time!!!! We are going to 14,000. Live is good, jobs are irrelevant, it is the new paradigm. Homes are over rated. FEMA trailers for everyone. 14,000!!! We just gotta believe. Free Kool-Aid with all purchases.

  11. molten_tofu says:

    Calculated Risk seems to at least partially attribute those falling foreclosure numbers to mortgage modifications in leu of foreclosure; unfortunatly, re-default rates are climbing fast. Don’t know how right he is, but it’s scary enough to make a good read.

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/12/dugan-high-re-default-rates.html

  12. Mannwich says:

    Found the new anti-reality “bubble”. It’s called the stock market.

  13. Vermont Trader says:

    total foreclosures in the state of Vermont = 13

    the rate is CA is 100x the rate in VT….

    don’t worry, we will clean up the mess all of you morons made..

  14. Mannwich says:

    @Vermont Trader: But aren’t there only about a 100 homes in Vermont? Kidding, just kidding, as a native New Englander, I love Vermont…….

  15. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Foreclosures are going to rise like a helium balloon..did you guys read the actual government release on initial claims this morning..?

    Don’t read this standing up…

    http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20081789.htm

    “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 757,481 in the week ending Dec. 6, an increase of 221,735 from the previous week. There were 423,130 initial claims in the comparable week in 2007. “

  16. jason says:

    @Vermont:

    It is very kind of you to make this offer. Vermont will carry the country through this mess. The new, new economy based on Maple syrup!

    On a side note, I have asked before and never had any response, does anyone have access to data on which states receive more Federal money than their residents pay in taxes?

  17. Mannwich says:

    @Bruce: Please stop it with your reality and facts. Don’t you know that we’ve already “bottomed” and on our way to a quick, painless “V-shaped” recovery? Nevermind this is the biggest crisis this country has seen since the Depression (maybe worse in the end). Just like everything else in our culture, this will be a quick and painless (and “free”).

    We will definitely see government-subsidized mortage rates below 5% next year. They are not going to allow housing or commercial real estate to deflate any further. The question is – will it solve the underlying problem or create more problems like the problems the other bailouts are causing? Me-thinks the latter.

  18. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    @Mannwich:

    Yep….that, when the math is done on the unadjusted numbers, is a 41.38% increase in claims…

    My wife has been convinced for months this is GDII…I now think she’s probably right.

  19. Mannwich says:

    @Bruce: I think she’s right too, unfortunately, which is why I’ve been even crankier than normal these days. Have had a pit in my stomach that this is going to get a lot worse than any of us are really ready for………

    I’ve tried to play Devil’s Advocate with myself too – and I just can’t see how this ends well no matter what the feds do. I really think that the so-called “experts” (even some of the real ones) are vastly underestimating the fallout that’s coming because nobody has seen or lived through such a fiasco like this before.

  20. DavidB says:

    @Jason

    Live is good, jobs are irrelevant, it is the new paradigm.

    Jason, did you get the latest memo?

    Due to cutbacks the new paradigm is now the new paranickles

  21. DavidB says:

    In November, one in every 488 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing, RealtyTrac said

    To play the DA:

    That still only adds up to .2% so I don’t think we are in depression numbers here

  22. Mannwich says:

    @DavidB: Prime mortgage resets over the next 1-2 years is the next avalanche. Why do you think that mortgage interest rate proposal below 5% is being bandied about? The feds are finally awake and know it and it won’t be pretty.

  23. DavidB says:

    @Mannwich

    These guys are credit centric though. A worst case scenario for them is to have people off the credit grid. These are guys who think falling prices are bad because people can’t service their debt. All those things may be bad for the banks but they are great for consumers. Especially those of us who don’t use credit. The only bad part is the pain getting there if the feds will even let us get there. That is what they are trying to prevent now because they know that once people learn to live without debt slavery it takes time to get them back into the trap again

  24. Big J says:

    Things are going to get worse. Anyone checked the latest S&P estimates on the S&P website lately??? Just got lowered again…they now have the Index earning only $42 per share for 2009 in As Reported Earnings. This is the lowest forecast I’ve seen yet. 2008 is forecast to come in at $48…still horrible when you consider how much cutting has been going on. If you’re no longer a bear think again. Housing, stocks, everything will probably go further down. When the current suckers rally ends look out below.

    S&P 650 in 2009.

  25. DavidB says:

    I hope that works. Something went wrong with my italics.

  26. Mannwich says:

    @DavidB: “That is what they are trying to prevent now because they know that once people learn to live without debt slavery it takes time to get them back into the trap again.”

    Agreed. I learned the hard way in my 20′s, got myself out of that mess by paying it all back (what a novel concept!) and haven’t gone back to that situation again and never will. It’s amazing what one can live without and still be quite content (even more content, actually) if one has some level of discipline. I imagine many will be traumatized by this fiasco so much that going back to the debt slavery will be like grabbing uranium with one’s bare hands…..

  27. DL says:

    At the current price of $118, SKF is back to where it was in early August.

    All we need now is one little mini-crisis in the financial sector.

  28. leftback says:

    @ Bruce: Just returned from Memphis. Was stuck out East so didn’t make it to Huey’s, but Corky’s was good. Mm..mm.. good. Folks in Memphis were pretty downbeat based on two major employers (Fed EX and State of Tennessee) cutting back pretty hard. No housing bubble there, but economy clearly not firing on all cylinders.

    Looking at the markets it looks like the reflationists were right to call a top in the $ at USD 87-88 about three weeks ago, and several of us have made big $ in this mini-rally in commodities. I will be looking hard at the $ charts and the FX market in general for clues on the next move. Have been trimming back a bit and taking profits, but as an example, I bought SLW at 3 and it trades at $4.50 right now.

    Tomorrow looks like the pullback day for everything after this week’s action, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very negative PPI, retail etc.. so the $ might rally tomorrow and we will have a sell-off, and we will probably hear from the SPECTRE of deflation…. I am not trading much but might do QID or SRS overnight, holding some cash back for the inevitable pullback in the commodity stocks. SKF, SCC, take your pick, I think you have to get short today, the market seems tired.

  29. karen says:

    from my experience, when the market won’t go down, it goes up and in a big way…. let’s see what happens at spx 890… if we get there.

    an on-topic excellent article on california housing with lots of charts:

    http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-southern-california-housing-empire-foreclosures-bad-investments-and-psychological-deception/

  30. leftback says:

    Karen, we can’t get past 905 here on the upside, and there is no breadth. What about a pull back to 870 and then a strong move upward from there?? Where is AT when you need a good technical call?

    Barry, where are we in that Wyckoff spring formation? Seems like we have been range bound for a while in here.

  31. Mannwich says:

    @karen: “From your experience”, have you or anyone else on this blog lived through what we’re living through now?

    Care to double our little bet? ;-)

  32. karen says:

    Jeff, i was referring to those times in 2007 and 2008 where i sat loaded to to gills in short etfs while the market ignored what lay ahead… whenever we’d hover, and I was sure the break would be down, the spx would break up…

    now i’m playing the game a little differently.

    i think a case is good, although we could double the price of the wine ; )

  33. Mannwich says:

    @karen: I hear you. Just ribbing you a bit. I can dish it out, so I can also take it!

    I have no idea where this is going but thought we’d shoot higher by now if the Santa rally was to continue. Think the rally petering out a bit. May regain steam if the auto bailout happens, but it won’t last.

    Let’s stay with the original bet!

  34. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    @Mannwich:

    Another reason foreclosures are bound to increase…4th consecutive quarter of household wealth decline….the “new” thing is STILL the uniformity of this contraction world wide….to mean this is just ominous..

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/28178572

    Household Net Worth Falls 4.7%; Debt Levels Contract

  35. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    to me, not to mean…

  36. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    I took typing in high school, just because I thought I might use it someday…if the typing teacher hadn’t thought the world of the girl I was dating, she’d have flunked me..no kidding. I still type like I dance…(um, not very well..)

  37. Todd says:

    I just wish they would get over the idea of keeping home prices up. Why pay a mortgage on a house worth less than the mortgage. When you can rent it at a considerably lessor price. The posting yesterday of an example of 3500/mo mortgage compared to 2500/mo rent for the same house. No brainer walk away and rent. Just think what freeing up all of those mortgage payments would do for the economy. That is bigger than any bailout or stimulus plan.

    What has happened to the 3pm trading surge, are the hedge funds done with meeting redemptions?

    If the automakers get their deal who is next. The airlines, they didn’t get one last time, but this could be different the door will be officially open.

  38. leftback says:

    @ Bruce, quit dancing and stick to eating burgers.

    SRS no resistance until 120.
    Hmm… I missed the midday move and have been pondering what to do about tomorrow.
    Let’s see how we close. Still stuck in the 870-905 range for now.

  39. Mannwich says:

    Kicking myself for not grabbing more SRS yesterday at ~76. This thing going to run again. Stupidly, I went to the gym at around the final hour of the close. Health concerns always seem to get in the way of the important things…….

  40. AGG says:

    There is an upside to all these squeezed budgets during hard times; conservative driving habits.
    WASHINGTON (AP) – Federal safety officials said auto fatalities dropped almost 10 percent in 2008 through October. If the trend holds up for the year’s last two months, highway deaths could reach their lowest level in the 42 years that records have been kept.

    The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said Thursday there were 31,110 auto fatalities the first 10 months of 2008. That’s a 9.8 percent decline over the same period in 2007, when there were 34,502 fatalities.

    So it’s not all bad. And speaking from Vermont, the hahd times are not hea. We ARE watching the IBM plant in Essex Junction, though.

  41. ButtoMcFarty says:

    A coworker and her hubbie are looking at buying a small farm here in Central MO. It’s been on the market for 6 months and is down to $240K from the original $325K asking price.

    I told if she was patient….ie next year….she might get the place for under $200K.

    Small town just south of me just lost its Office Depot (120 jobs), Fasco Inc (400 jobs), and the local university instituted a hiring freeze.

    It’s going to be a long cold dark winter.

    I’m not a violent person….but I’d pay to see Alan Greenspan, Phil Gramm, and Hank Paulson publicly drawn and quartered. I don’t blame Bush….he’s too simple to understand anyway. It would be like beating a puppy for pissing on the floor.

    Fuck me….I need a drink.

  42. ButtoMcFarty says:

    Oh yeah….forgot this little bundle of glad tidings….

    http://newstribune.com/articles/2008/12/11/news_local/020local01reapply.txt

    Nixon making state non-merit employees reapply
    By DAVID A. LIEB
    Associated Press Writer

    Gov.-elect Jay Nixon is asking hundreds of state employees to justify their jobs or lose them.

    Nixon’s gubernatorial transition team has sent letters to about 600 employees whose jobs are not covered by the state merit system. The letter obtained Thursday by The Associated Press says employees must reapply for their jobs by Dec. 23 if they want a chance to keep their positions.

    Now.

    About that Johnny Walker Black….

  43. jason says:

    Interest data:

    States Receiving Least in Federal Spending Per Dollar of Federal Taxes Paid:

    1. New Jersey ($0.62)
    2. Connecticut ($0.64)
    3. New Hampshire ($0.68)
    4. Nevada ($0.73)
    5. Illinois ($0.77)
    6. Minnesota ($0.77)
    7. Colorado ($0.79)
    8. Massachusetts ($0.79)
    9. California ($0.81)
    10. New York ($0.81)

    http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2004/09/red_states_feed.html

    Since CA is now broke I am hoping we can recoup all the excess money we have paid in supporting these states:

    States Receiving Most in Federal Spending Per Dollar of Federal Taxes Paid:

    1. D.C. ($6.17)
    2. North Dakota ($2.03)
    3. New Mexico ($1.89)
    4. Mississippi ($1.84)
    5. Alaska ($1.82)
    6. West Virginia ($1.74)
    7. Montana ($1.64)
    8. Alabama ($1.61)
    9. South Dakota ($1.59)
    10. Arkansas ($1.53)

  44. jason,

    to your point, if we, really, wanted an ‘Infrastructure’ project that’d do some good, we’d tear up all the ‘Roads’ that lead to W.D.C. y Wall St., dig up the 10th Amendment, and the other 9, while we’re at it, and Remember what it’s like to be a Republic, again.

    Amendment 10 – Powers of the States and People. Ratified 12/15/1791. Note

    The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.
    http://www.usconstitution.net/const.html#Am10