Comments on: How big? How low? How now brown cow? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/how-big-how-low-how-now-brown-cow/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 11:00:47 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/how-big-how-low-how-now-brown-cow/comment-page-1/#comment-130230 Mark E Hoffer Wed, 03 Dec 2008 03:59:38 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11626#comment-130230 "Differin' opines make'm run the Equuines" that said, Kotok, while I hope you're right, you may want to 2x check your data sources, make sure they're sufficient, and refigure, thereby.. IOW, I think you're waay too Bullish. If not for this: "“Aren’t you worried about all this debt and future inflation?” We are often asked this question. The answer is not now.", I'd be asking if you were speaking about 'nominal' performance.. “Differin’ opines make’m run the Equuines”

that said, Kotok, while I hope you’re right, you may want to 2x check your data sources, make sure they’re sufficient, and refigure, thereby..

IOW, I think you’re waay too Bullish.

If not for this: ““Aren’t you worried about all this debt and future inflation?” We are often asked this question. The answer is not now.”, I’d be asking if you were speaking about ‘nominal’ performance..

]]> By: Simon http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/how-big-how-low-how-now-brown-cow/comment-page-1/#comment-130170 Simon Tue, 02 Dec 2008 21:06:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11626#comment-130170 Sure there is side line cash but is it the sort that will fuel a sustainable rally? Not in my opinion. It is speculative cash that is part of a large game. It is not motivated by long term gains in productive enterprises, it is about out playing its counter party. It wants only to be on the winning side be that long or short. Earning are the key to attracting the long term holders that will spark a sustainable rally. With the world economy on the ropes and the largest consumers in the world tapped out as NR says who is going to be the consumer to create the earnings? The government?. Sure there is side line cash but is it the sort that will fuel a sustainable rally? Not in my opinion. It is speculative cash that is part of a large game. It is not motivated by long term gains in productive enterprises, it is about out playing its counter party. It wants only to be on the winning side be that long or short.

Earning are the key to attracting the long term holders that will spark a sustainable rally. With the world economy on the ropes and the largest consumers in the world tapped out as NR says who is going to be the consumer to create the earnings? The government?.

]]> By: Simon http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/how-big-how-low-how-now-brown-cow/comment-page-1/#comment-130162 Simon Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:56:31 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11626#comment-130162 Bring out the scariest graph in the world again please Steve Barry. I need to be reminded. Bring out the scariest graph in the world again please Steve Barry. I need to be reminded.

]]> By: Bruce N Tennessee http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/how-big-how-low-how-now-brown-cow/comment-page-1/#comment-130148 Bruce N Tennessee Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:21:46 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11626#comment-130148 Montysano: I believe you have found the reason why some of us here have taken a fairly cynical approach to not letting toxic banks die, etc. We'll see how she plays out... Montysano:

I believe you have found the reason why some of us here have taken a fairly cynical approach to not letting toxic banks die, etc.

We’ll see how she plays out…

]]> By: montysano http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/how-big-how-low-how-now-brown-cow/comment-page-1/#comment-130138 montysano Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:01:41 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11626#comment-130138 Speaking/asking as a financial amateur: my understanding was that much of the freeze in the credit markets, esp. commercial paper, was due to the swaps market. Because of the lack of transparency in the swaps market, no one knows how toxic anyone else is, hence the reluctance to lend. How is this being dealt with? I've heard nothing about a move to regulate swaps and provide some transparency and oversight. I've read, in several places, that the swaps market is worth $60T. If true, it's a staggering number. I also learned a new word: I read that the global value of all types of derivatives may be $1Q; that's one quadrillion dollars. How in the world do we ever unwind this? Speaking/asking as a financial amateur: my understanding was that much of the freeze in the credit markets, esp. commercial paper, was due to the swaps market. Because of the lack of transparency in the swaps market, no one knows how toxic anyone else is, hence the reluctance to lend. How is this being dealt with? I’ve heard nothing about a move to regulate swaps and provide some transparency and oversight.

I’ve read, in several places, that the swaps market is worth $60T. If true, it’s a staggering number. I also learned a new word: I read that the global value of all types of derivatives may be $1Q; that’s one quadrillion dollars. How in the world do we ever unwind this?

]]> By: Winston Munn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/how-big-how-low-how-now-brown-cow/comment-page-1/#comment-130136 Winston Munn Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:00:10 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11626#comment-130136 '"This sets the stage for the Federal Reserve to be more formal in its adoption of quantitative easing,' said Vincent Reinhart. The Bank of Japan is the only major central bank in modern times to rely on quantitative easing Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said in May that while the strategy “was very effective in stabilizing financial markets,” it had “limited impact” in remedying Japan’s economic stagnation because banks wouldn’t lend and companies wouldn’t borrow. " Well, thank goodness we are America the Exceptional and OUR quantitative easing will work. And we all know that our banks can't wait to lend and our companies can't wait to go into deeper debt to support a better way of life for the working class. ‘”This sets the stage for the Federal Reserve to be more formal in its adoption of quantitative easing,’ said Vincent Reinhart.

The Bank of Japan is the only major central bank in modern times to rely on quantitative easing

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said in May that while the strategy “was very effective in stabilizing financial markets,” it had “limited impact” in remedying Japan’s economic stagnation because banks wouldn’t lend and companies wouldn’t borrow. ”

Well, thank goodness we are America the Exceptional and OUR quantitative easing will work. And we all know that our banks can’t wait to lend and our companies can’t wait to go into deeper debt to support a better way of life for the working class.

]]> By: Bruce N Tennessee http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/how-big-how-low-how-now-brown-cow/comment-page-1/#comment-130129 Bruce N Tennessee Tue, 02 Dec 2008 19:30:55 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11626#comment-130129 The other side of the debate: http://www.cnbc.com/id/27997732 Severe But Short Trading Drop on Horizon The other side of the debate:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27997732

Severe But Short Trading Drop on Horizon

]]> By: Bruce N Tennessee http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/how-big-how-low-how-now-brown-cow/comment-page-1/#comment-130126 Bruce N Tennessee Tue, 02 Dec 2008 19:22:14 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11626#comment-130126 Um...We believe “gapping” may be the key word to describe what lies ahead..... Gasping...is spelled with an s.... :) Um…We believe “gapping” may be the key word to describe what lies ahead…..

Gasping…is spelled with an s….

:)

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