Interesting stuff . . .
Analysis and Discussion with Philip Orlando of Federated Investors
Not sure I fully buy the volatility argument . . .
In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Asian currencies continue to sell off vs the $ on the heels of the news yesterday that South Korea said they will look into hot money inflows stemming from the $ carry trade and the Bank of Indonesia said they are looking into the foreign buying of bills. This follows the news a few weeks ago that Taiwan was limiting foreign deposit holdings and Brazil was taxing foreign inflow transactions. As I mentioned yesterday, we may have reached a short term pain threshold in terms of $ weakness and foreign countries are fighting back as they certainly won't wait for...
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December 4th, 2008 at 8:45 am
I don’t know when the bottom comes, but the Baltic Dry Index is 672 this morning….down from the 850’s just a couple of weeks ago, and of course, down from 12.6k at its peak. I am thinking Barry may soon be able to jet ski almost anywhere on the ocean without seeing a soul…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=bdiy&exch=IND&x=15&y=11
December 4th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Yeah BR I agree, I’m certainly uncomfortable using some past recessions and recessions and market charachteristics, especially those of the 1982 and forward period as signals that this might be a bottom. Also I just saw that James Cramer has called another bottom, or at least the headline said he did, so surely this is not the bottom.
To me, that is like those that said once housing starts hit below 1mm it was a bottom b/c it was that way in the past. Of course as we know that doesn’t account for the boom we had, which was unmatched, much like the creation of leverage this time has been unmatched and therefore the end result or bottom “signal” will be different.
To me bottom calling is not exactly of value to anyone but I do find it amusing that so many people try to do it.