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	<title>Comments on: Jobless Claims</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/jobless-claims/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/jobless-claims/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:38:01 -0500</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: logical Empiricist</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/jobless-claims/comment-page-1/#comment-136750</link>
		<dc:creator>logical Empiricist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 01:29:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14510#comment-136750</guid>
		<description>One should look at the Non-Seasonally adjusted numbers.  There is a problem with the seasonal adjustment being used.
						       Advance										Prior1
WEEK ENDING				Dec. 27 	Dec. 20		Change		Dec. 13		Year
Initial Claims (SA)		       &quot;492,000&quot;	&quot;586,000&quot;	&quot;-94,000&quot;	&quot;556,000&quot;	&quot;339,000&quot;
Initial Claims (NSA)		&quot;718,468&quot;	&quot;716,576&quot;	&quot;1,892&quot;		&quot;629,867&quot;	&quot;507,908&quot;
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)&quot;552,250&quot;	&quot;558,000&quot;	&quot;-5,750&quot;	&quot;544,250&quot;	&quot;344,500&quot;	

Taken from the DOL press release: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20081873.htm</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One should look at the Non-Seasonally adjusted numbers.  There is a problem with the seasonal adjustment being used.<br />
						       Advance										Prior1<br />
WEEK ENDING				Dec. 27 	Dec. 20		Change		Dec. 13		Year<br />
Initial Claims (SA)		       &#8220;492,000&#8243;	&#8220;586,000&#8243;	&#8220;-94,000&#8243;	&#8220;556,000&#8243;	&#8220;339,000&#8243;<br />
Initial Claims (NSA)		&#8220;718,468&#8243;	&#8220;716,576&#8243;	&#8220;1,892&#8243;		&#8220;629,867&#8243;	&#8220;507,908&#8243;<br />
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)&#8221;552,250&#8243;	&#8220;558,000&#8243;	&#8220;-5,750&#8243;	&#8220;544,250&#8243;	&#8220;344,500&#8243;	</p>
<p>Taken from the DOL press release: <a href="http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20081873.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20081873.htm</a></p>
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		<title>By: KJ Foehr</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/jobless-claims/comment-page-1/#comment-136637</link>
		<dc:creator>KJ Foehr</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:58:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14510#comment-136637</guid>
		<description>10 cc Says: 
 
““Zheng Xiaoyu, former head of the food and drug watchdog, the State Food and Drug Administration, was executed last year for taking bribes and dereliction of duty in the wake of a series of drug safety scandals.”
While I voted for Obama, I suspect that when it comes to dealing with our own financial criminals, we will all be left “looking for more”.”

Yes, and in Japan they used to commit suicide when they were caught in dishonorable acts.  Here “the buck stops here” has become just a quaint idea adhered to only by those naive enough to still accept responsibility for their own actions.  After all, taking responsibility can be painful; it is much more agreeable to hire a good attorney and get off easy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>10 cc Says: </p>
<p>““Zheng Xiaoyu, former head of the food and drug watchdog, the State Food and Drug Administration, was executed last year for taking bribes and dereliction of duty in the wake of a series of drug safety scandals.”<br />
While I voted for Obama, I suspect that when it comes to dealing with our own financial criminals, we will all be left “looking for more”.”</p>
<p>Yes, and in Japan they used to commit suicide when they were caught in dishonorable acts.  Here “the buck stops here” has become just a quaint idea adhered to only by those naive enough to still accept responsibility for their own actions.  After all, taking responsibility can be painful; it is much more agreeable to hire a good attorney and get off easy.</p>
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		<title>By: KJ Foehr</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/jobless-claims/comment-page-1/#comment-136634</link>
		<dc:creator>KJ Foehr</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:47:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14510#comment-136634</guid>
		<description>VIX is below 40 for the first time since 10-2.  Meaningful change or just holiday low volume trading?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>VIX is below 40 for the first time since 10-2.  Meaningful change or just holiday low volume trading?</p>
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		<title>By: 10 cc</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/jobless-claims/comment-page-1/#comment-136633</link>
		<dc:creator>10 cc</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:39:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14510#comment-136633</guid>
		<description>KJ,

from Reuters (via the FT)...

&quot;The chairwoman of the Chinese company at the heart of a tainted milk scandal that has killed at least six children and made thousands ill went on trial in China on Wednesday, facing a maximum penalty of death. &quot;

Bush would have appointed her to head the FDA.

Talk about your cultural differences.

From the same article...

&quot;Zheng Xiaoyu, former head of the food and drug watchdog, the State Food and Drug Administration, was executed last year for taking bribes and dereliction of duty in the wake of a series of drug safety scandals.&quot;

While I voted for Obama, I suspect that when it comes to dealing with our own financial criminals, we will all be left &quot;looking for more&quot;. 

If  I&#039;m wrong, I&#039;ll gladly buy leftback a burger for every indictment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>KJ,</p>
<p>from Reuters (via the FT)&#8230;</p>
<p>&#8220;The chairwoman of the Chinese company at the heart of a tainted milk scandal that has killed at least six children and made thousands ill went on trial in China on Wednesday, facing a maximum penalty of death. &#8221;</p>
<p>Bush would have appointed her to head the FDA.</p>
<p>Talk about your cultural differences.</p>
<p>From the same article&#8230;</p>
<p>&#8220;Zheng Xiaoyu, former head of the food and drug watchdog, the State Food and Drug Administration, was executed last year for taking bribes and dereliction of duty in the wake of a series of drug safety scandals.&#8221;</p>
<p>While I voted for Obama, I suspect that when it comes to dealing with our own financial criminals, we will all be left &#8220;looking for more&#8221;. </p>
<p>If  I&#8217;m wrong, I&#8217;ll gladly buy leftback a burger for every indictment.</p>
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		<title>By: KJ Foehr</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/jobless-claims/comment-page-1/#comment-136626</link>
		<dc:creator>KJ Foehr</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:51:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14510#comment-136626</guid>
		<description>leftback Says: 
 
“Here’s to the end of the Tyranny of the Incompetent. I am willing to wager that President Obama has a few surprises up his sleeve for members of the financial elite. All is not lost.”

I too have not lost faith in O.  People can scoff, but IMO he is the closest thing to a real outsider / “man of the people” as president we have had in my lifetime.  But I am worried: for one thing he always leaves me looking for more from him. In reading his two books and often when I hear him speak, it sounds very good, but he seems to fall short on the really big ideas.  He throws great long passes, and his ground game is superb, but he seems to not be able to get it across the goal line for me.  

Plus he is emulating Lincoln, whom I think he sees him as a consensus builder like himself, and to me the only way to govern with consensus is to end up in the middle, like Clinton.  That makes him more susceptible to being coopted by TPTB.  Also, real change is not going to happen in the middle.  Further, the prez is only one person, and what he can realistically accomplish against TPTB is much less than we like to think.

All is not lost, but we do need a serious course correction throughout our culture and society, and that is not going to come from the top.  O may set the right tone, but it will be up to us to make it happen, and that is what I am worried most about, that the American people have lost the ability to think and act for themselves and by themselves.


Thanks to all, including Barry, for enlightening comments and engaging debates.  I look forward to more of the same in ’09.  Much happiness and good health to us all in the new year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>leftback Says: </p>
<p>“Here’s to the end of the Tyranny of the Incompetent. I am willing to wager that President Obama has a few surprises up his sleeve for members of the financial elite. All is not lost.”</p>
<p>I too have not lost faith in O.  People can scoff, but IMO he is the closest thing to a real outsider / “man of the people” as president we have had in my lifetime.  But I am worried: for one thing he always leaves me looking for more from him. In reading his two books and often when I hear him speak, it sounds very good, but he seems to fall short on the really big ideas.  He throws great long passes, and his ground game is superb, but he seems to not be able to get it across the goal line for me.  </p>
<p>Plus he is emulating Lincoln, whom I think he sees him as a consensus builder like himself, and to me the only way to govern with consensus is to end up in the middle, like Clinton.  That makes him more susceptible to being coopted by TPTB.  Also, real change is not going to happen in the middle.  Further, the prez is only one person, and what he can realistically accomplish against TPTB is much less than we like to think.</p>
<p>All is not lost, but we do need a serious course correction throughout our culture and society, and that is not going to come from the top.  O may set the right tone, but it will be up to us to make it happen, and that is what I am worried most about, that the American people have lost the ability to think and act for themselves and by themselves.</p>
<p>Thanks to all, including Barry, for enlightening comments and engaging debates.  I look forward to more of the same in ’09.  Much happiness and good health to us all in the new year.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Barry</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/jobless-claims/comment-page-1/#comment-136623</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Barry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:44:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14510#comment-136623</guid>
		<description>A call for a hedge fund boom is almost as stupid as calling for a credit derivative boom.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A call for a hedge fund boom is almost as stupid as calling for a credit derivative boom.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Barry</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/jobless-claims/comment-page-1/#comment-136621</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Barry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:34:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14510#comment-136621</guid>
		<description>Absolutlely the most  &quot;out there&quot; call I have ever heard...guy on CNBC calling for a hedge fund boom in 2009.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Absolutlely the most  &#8220;out there&#8221; call I have ever heard&#8230;guy on CNBC calling for a hedge fund boom in 2009.</p>
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		<title>By: leftback</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/jobless-claims/comment-page-1/#comment-136619</link>
		<dc:creator>leftback</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:29:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14510#comment-136619</guid>
		<description>@ Moss: 

This is the John Mauldin &quot;muddle through&quot; approach. We all get through this thing somehow, without the whole system falling apart. The price will be inflation in things we need (food, oil, gasoline), and continued deflation in things that had formed enormous bubbles (houses, I-Banks, nail salons, luxury car dealerships).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Moss: </p>
<p>This is the John Mauldin &#8220;muddle through&#8221; approach. We all get through this thing somehow, without the whole system falling apart. The price will be inflation in things we need (food, oil, gasoline), and continued deflation in things that had formed enormous bubbles (houses, I-Banks, nail salons, luxury car dealerships).</p>
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		<title>By: Moss</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/jobless-claims/comment-page-1/#comment-136617</link>
		<dc:creator>Moss</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:22:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14510#comment-136617</guid>
		<description>I am wondering if companies will cut cash outlays much like FDX has done in lieu of some layoffs anticipating a pickup later in the year. This approach (wage freeze, 401k contribution halt) is probably cheaper in the shot run than paying severance.  I expect to see more of this along with div. cuts, more plant furloughs, even forced unpaid days off (municipalities) and even retiree benefit cuts on health care for those companies with defined benefit plans.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am wondering if companies will cut cash outlays much like FDX has done in lieu of some layoffs anticipating a pickup later in the year. This approach (wage freeze, 401k contribution halt) is probably cheaper in the shot run than paying severance.  I expect to see more of this along with div. cuts, more plant furloughs, even forced unpaid days off (municipalities) and even retiree benefit cuts on health care for those companies with defined benefit plans.</p>
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		<title>By: leftback</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/jobless-claims/comment-page-1/#comment-136615</link>
		<dc:creator>leftback</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:14:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14510#comment-136615</guid>
		<description>KJ:

Here&#039;s to the end of the Tyranny of the Incompetent. I am willing to wager that President Obama has a few surprises up his sleeve for members of the financial elite. All is not lost.

It&#039;s always darkest before the dawn. Opportunities will beckon for those who have acted wisely.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>KJ:</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s to the end of the Tyranny of the Incompetent. I am willing to wager that President Obama has a few surprises up his sleeve for members of the financial elite. All is not lost.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s always darkest before the dawn. Opportunities will beckon for those who have acted wisely.</p>
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