Look Out Below (Detroit version)

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 12th, 2008, 6:55AM

On the failure of the Detroit bailout deal, futures have collapsed:

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Nikkei down almost 6%;  Europe down too . . .

102 Responses to “Look Out Below (Detroit version)”

  1. John Borchers Says:

    We get down 5% and I’ll cover up my put options and buy more Russell 2000 (IWM) long. Maybe everybody else is quite afraid but not me. I love to be in the driver’s seat on days like this.

  2. mike j Says:

    CNBC is being retarded and not showing futures across their top screen (at least not on CNBCHD). Down too much to show?

    Good luck Borchers. The Bernie Madoff $50B is probably a bigger story (in the end) than the Auto Companies — TPTB are talking about an asset freeze — carnage abounds.

    -Mike J

  3. John Borchers Says:

    For the record I have orders set for -5%,-10%,-20%,-40% from IWM’s closing point. Let’s see which get hit.

  4. Mark E Hoffer Says:

    TPTB are talking about an asset freeze …

    ya know, maybe now People will have an open ear to the Idea: that whatever they think they have on Paper, is just that. Your trading Acct. is no good if the ‘Markets’ aren’t open, Your ‘Bank’ acct. is no good if the ‘Banks’ ‘Clap-Off’…In our poli-sci-fi World, thank you JMK, and your merry-band of Economagicians, there’s only one Cardinal Rule: Nothing=Anything.

    These are some different days, it’d behoove People to remember the ol’ Boy Scout motto, lest they be trampled by Black Swans..

    As someone noted, in nearby thread, it is Black Swan Season. TPTB/MSM to the contrary, or not..

    Things are the *Reality, necessary, to ease the Friction of the Fiction..

  5. John Borchers Says:

    Mark what you say is possible. Put options and short funds are also worthless if you can’t access the market. Look at Russia been closed so many times.

  6. Gene Says:

    @John Borchers >>I love to be in the driver’s seat on days like this.

    Be sure to report how lovely the view is as you drive over the cliff!

  7. John Borchers Says:

    No worries. I have plenty of money from all the shorting I previously did. I can sit on this for years if it goes bad. How else couldn’t I be in panic like everyone else? LOL

  8. Bruce in Tn Says:

    Well, it appears that the sticking point was the UAW’s decision not to agree to the same wages as the foreign manufacturers in the US. When I think about this a minute, this may have been the dumbest decision in the history of organized labor. Think about it for a minute, too. Remember Jimmy Stewart in Its a Wonderful Life? When the Building and Loan was failing, he did everything possible to save it. The UAW has a friend coming to the white house, and the cuts, I think all would agree, were at least temporarily needed. Without saying, much better executive leadership needed too.

    If things got better, the UAW is saved and can negotiate to get higher pay scales if we get out of the recession/depression. By not accepting a pay cut, they shot themselves in the foot, ass, head, etc.
    Other salaried workers have taken cuts in dire times, and these morons should have too. Ever hear of pilots taking cuts?

    We need organized labor, but when you’d rather lose your job than take a cut in pay….well, you get what you ask for.

    At least they had a job.

  9. Ventura2012 Says:

    Congratulations to each and every Republican in the Senate who stood up to this nonsense. Finally a group of politicians who are not willing to risk the long term fundamentals of the economy for a short term pop in the market.

  10. carmen101 Says:

    Bruce, lets wait until the full story comes out. It’s clear that the strategy of the GOP was to formulate a non-workable plan and then blame the failure on the union. And if this goes to Bush, he would only do what’s politically correct to the GOP.

    Other aspects of the plan that is not discussed is the requirement of the debtholders to take a big haircut, something that typically could only be enforced in bankruptcy court. GM and others could not go along with that.

    Just wait, more details will come out.

  11. danm Says:

    A bailout for the big 3 just means even more problems and a faster decline of the American Empire. As long as they carry the benefits, they are NOT a going concern.

    Bailout or not, the pensioners are going to lose. The only thing that changes is the timing.

  12. danm Says:

    And as long as America keeps on subsidizing its car industr, it won’t be able to recuce its dependency on oil.

    Quit subsidizing the freaking car and your whole view of the world changes.

  13. danm Says:

    And Canada is not much better… because of our climate, Canada is the largest user of energy per capita in the world!

    I just changed my furnace yesterday. When they changed the thermostat, I was told that I would be getting an unpleasant call and visit from Big Brother. Now I understand why I couldn’t get the temperature 2 degrees lower in the summer!

    I’ll show them the house in back, double in size with a Jacuzzi and a pool. If they want more energy, they should go and cut them off or simply double the rates for those who use more than the average household. Had they done that from the onset, 4000 square foot houses wouldn’t have grown like mushrooms.

    The problem in North America is that we keep on subsidizing indutries that use up a lot of energy.

  14. Bruce in Tn Says:

    Carmen101:

    Oh, certainly I agree this wasn’t the only thing that killed the deal. I suppose my point is, that had I been in the senate, I would have wanted to see real progress made by both the executive leadership of GM AND the UAW…the fact is, because the competitive environment has changed so much since the heyday of the UAW, change in the form of lower costs of labor HAD to come. Last night, had I been voting, and not seen a willingness from the UAW to give, I’d have voted no too. It is not about whether you’d like to see your fellow Americans make as much as possible, it is about whether reality still allows those sorts of wages in 2008.

  15. Greg0658 Says:

    John Borchers Says: December 12th, 2008 at 7:19 am
    “For the record I have orders set for -5%,-10%,-20%,-40% from IWM’s closing point. Let’s see which get hit.”

    Is that behind a Solid firewall of sight? Adobe Flash9 has an issue and v10 is just out. Just speculating. Don’t be alarmed (I know nothing).

  16. Mark E Hoffer Says:

    danm,

    w/ this: “The problem in North America is that we keep on subsidizing indutries that use up a lot of energy.”

    remember, or learn, our Whole Economy is predicated on Waste..

    makes the numbers, in the Pachinko parlor that is ‘ConsumerLand LLC’, rachet ever higher, all the quicker. gotz to stay ahead of that exponential curve, donchya know…

    what a ruse..

  17. DeDude Says:

    750 billion to save X-mas for the suits on Wall street; no problem !

    14 billion to save X-mas for 1 million people who actually work for a living: NO WAY !!!

    At least the GOP does not do much to hide who they are and who they serve.

  18. cshuber Says:

    I think this is going to end up being reminiscent of the Lehman Bros situation. Lots of congratulatory handwaving, “moral hazard” finally gets it due, etc, etc…. and then, reality hits.

    In this case, that reality is a major sector of American business going down in disorderly flames in the middle of what is already the worst recession in a generation, and includes such highlights as:

    Hundreds of Billions (Trillions?) in GM and Chrysler pensions (and Ford, eventually) getting offloaded directly over to the PBGC, and eventually hitting the public pocketbook (since the PBGC is already in poor straits);

    Hundreds of supporting suppliers failing as well, further depressing corporate earnings, stocks, etc.;

    Accelerated growth in unemployment, particularly in the Mich-Ind-Ohio region, but really nationwide, putting further stress on weakened UI funds;

    Hundreds of thousands more with no employer-provided health care coverage, stressing Medicaid and various state programs; (silver lining: probable increased momentum to the push for a nationalized health insurance system)

    Lack of mobility due to poor housing markets prevents quick reallocation of labor resources, slowing an already slow recovery;

    Bonus Round: Moribund credit markets and widespread consumer-spending downturn has competitors unable to capitalize on reduced competition anyway (every car manufacturer I’ve seen reported a drop of 30%-40% in sales for 3Q08, and we were still “basking in the afterglow” of the stimulus checks at that point).

    The point of interest I saw was that the UAW was “willing to give”: they just wanted it to be over a couple years, while the Republicans and Blue Dogs wanted it immediately (2009).

    Anyway, it should make for some interesting times. I’m particularly curious about who will end up ponying up the bridge loans for the GM bankruptcy… if anyone. Another use for the TARP?

  19. ottovbvs Says:

    Bruce in Tn Says:

    December 12th, 2008 at 7:53 am

    Er….did I miss something here. Wasn’t this a plan sponsored by a Republican administration and the negotiation of which the Republicans in the senate refused to participate in for weeks. Does this sound as if this was a body of men who wanted this to succeed? The UAW stuff is the usually Republican bs to distract attention from what they have done. As an act of policy this does beggar belief. That said I suspect Paulson will ultimately step in with some dough from the $700 million. He and Bernanke aren’t quite a suicidal as the GOP. Today is going to be ugly but if Paulson does step up to the plate it could reverse rapidly.

  20. Ventura2012 Says:

    So the dems wanted to bail out the financials, autos, insurers, insolvent homeowners, bankrupt states…why do not they cut the BS and just push for what they truley want…anyone who has made sacrifices and saved money needs to immediately turn it over to the less fortunate folks who levered up and lived in the fast lane.

  21. Winston Munn Says:

    Strange decision. In chapter 11 more than just wages will be trimmed.

  22. DeDude Says:

    Sorry Ventura2012 if you think you are going to have anything worth anything after the whole economy and society has gone down in flames you are pretty naive. I am one of those who work hard make sacrifices and save (I have no loans on my house, car, or anything else). Yet the value of my home and 401K has been drastically reduced in the last 3 months. The question is not whether you will pay but how much and how bad you will pay for a government that allowed all this reckless behavior of our financial system. I for one are not going to say lets sink this ship we are all on because I can’t stand the thought of those lazy bastards in the 2′nd class compartment being saved from a good soaking.

  23. Lugnut Says:

    AIG

    Recent CDS purchases on GM paper would lose value on a bail

    Loud opposition by McConnell in the Senate

    Who happens to be a very good buddy of………

    (I’ll let you guys fill in the blank and connect the dots)

    UAW isn’t the only one playing games

  24. Bruce N Tennessee Says:

    Well, for those who think there is some big GOP conspiracy, ok….Obama will save the UAW in a little over a month…those wages will still be 10 dollars per hour or more greater than at the Toyota factory here in the good old USA, and even though The Same Car will sell for 2500 bucks less by Toyota, UAW jobs will proliferate and life will be good….

    I would have voted no. As a senator, if I am going to vote the taxpayers money, I want something that will succeed. People who see conspiracy around every corner should join Alice in the Looking Glass….

    If the UAW doesn’t accept lower wages, then the taxpayer just subsidizes those 30 dollar an hour jobs forever….because the product won’t compete with Honda or Toyota…

    Good grief.

  25. businessword.com Says:

    Futures are only of 2.3% and GM’s only down about 17% in pre-market bid, ask.

    Not a panic response. We’ll see how the day goes.

    After bond holders, equity holders, management and Republicans gave ground big time, the UAW refused to commit to a date by which it would make wages “competitive” with those of Toyota, Honda, Nissan and BMW, but not Volkswagen. The question is, will UAW members somehow convince leaders that they can make such a commitment without being voted out of office. That is what this is all about, UAW politics. I hope Bush refuses to use TARP to bail out Gettelfinger and his UAW cronies.

  26. wunsacon Says:

    @ Ventura2012:

    >> why do not they cut the BS and just push for what they truley want…anyone who has made sacrifices and saved money needs to immediately turn it over to the less fortunate folks who levered up and lived in the fast lane.

    That’s not what they truly want. What they truly want is to avoid a depression. I like to think there are better ways to do it. But, my criticism goes to strategy and not to motive, like yours.

  27. danm Says:

    remember, or learn, our Whole Economy is predicated on Waste..

    ————

    True.

    The reason why I can’t see a solution to our predicament is that in any civilisation the single most important variable is energy. And with competition, it does not make sense to save it as all the other countries will be growing faster than you are and leaving you behind in the dust. Then when their supplies disappear, they will just invade you and use what you were saving.

    Wait a minute… doesn’t this ring a bell?

  28. wunsacon Says:

    Funny, in his Bill Moyers interview, Kevin Phillips suggested that the Republican party might be more effective as a minority/opposition party than as the majority party. It seems they’re suddenly rediscovering their religion against spending. I don’t know the deal with the bondholders. But, if they can help drive better bargains for taxpayers, I look forward to it.

  29. Douglas Watts Says:

    If things got better, the UAW is saved and can negotiate to get higher pay scales if we get out of the recession/depression. By not accepting a pay cut, they shot themselves in the foot, ass, head, etc.
    Other salaried workers have taken cuts in dire times, and these morons should have too. Ever hear of pilots taking cuts?

    Funny. I don’t recall Paulson or Congress requiring AIG and all of the bailed out banks to take across the board paycuts and givebacks on benefits, etc. As I recall, the $750 B is no strings attached and the $80 B to AIG is no strings attached.

    Funny.

  30. constantnormal Says:

    It’s all just a part of the Senate’s kabuki dance — either Paulson will cough up the $15B from the TARP, or the Senate will “reconsider” at the 59th second of the 59th minute of the final hour, saving the economy and proving their worth.

    Remember to show your incumbent Senators your appreciation at the next primary.

    If the Senate were really and truly interested in the economic well-being of the nation, would they have overwhelmingly approved the TARP from the outset?

    This is all just more drama from the drama queens of the US government.

    Things could be worse — they could be passing still more poorly-crafted, ill-considered legislation.

  31. The Curmudgeon Says:

    Re the failure of the bail-out de jour: Richard Shelby (US Senator from Alabama) should run for president. He opposed the TARP and opposed this latest bail-out. Opposing the UAW bail-out (quit calling it a bail-out for the carmakers, please) dove-tailed quite nicely with his constituents here in Alabama where a burgeoning automobile industry is thriving (Mercedes, Honda, et. al.). All w/out the UAW.

    You ought to see the license plates from Ohio and Michigan cruising the streets down here. As Detroit falters, Birmingham thrives. Tough shit Detroit.

  32. DeDude Says:

    Douglas; yes I have also been looking hard and long for those demand that AIG employees sacrifice their pay and benefits to help save their company before the government hand them 80 billion. I guess it is only those that do actual work and produce something that should make sacrifices – paper pushers are just to fragile for that kind of thing.

  33. businessword.com Says:

    Bush apparently is caving already. Should help the markets, which are down only 128 pts.

  34. businessword.com Says:

    People who do physical work aren’t worth as much as educated people who work even harder than assembly line workers.

  35. Ventura2012 Says:

    “That’s not what they truly want. What they truly want is to avoid a depression. I like to think there are better ways to do it. But, my criticism goes to strategy and not to motive, like yours.”

    “Sorry Ventura2012 if you think you are going to have anything worth anything after the whole economy and society has gone down in flames you are pretty naive. I am one of those who work hard make sacrifices and save (I have no loans on my house, car, or anything else). Yet the value of my home and 401K has been drastically reduced in the last 3 months. The question is not whether you will pay but how much and how bad you will pay for a government that allowed all this reckless behavior of our financial system. I for one are not going to say lets sink this ship we are all on because I can’t stand the thought of those lazy bastards in the 2′nd class compartment being saved from a good soaking.”

    It is my belief that the bailouts are guaranteeing we have a depression and not the severe correction. Look at history..personally I am sick of buying assets into bubbles…which is why I only play from the short side on equities, rent, and own commodities. So your home and 401k have been reduced…to what levels they were 10 years ago, which are still much much higher than the assets were 20 years ago. If I go around paying $5 for a $1 bill that does not mean the $1 bill is now worth $5. Hence your house never was worth what you thought it was. How much longer did you think the greater fool theory could last with people chasing stocks paying 0 or 1-2% dividends and relying on another sucker to come give them a captial gain. It was the gov’t that caused the reckless behavoir of our financial system and the result is the crisis we are in..via the Fed constantly inflating asset prices and the assumption houses and stocks only go up in the long haul..if you think the problems are a result of the free markets I suggest you ask anyone who ACCURATELY predicted the crisis in the US. Virtually everyone is a believer in the Austrian school..be it Ron Paul, Peter Schiff, Hugh Hendry etc…and not one who predicted what would happen recommends these bailouts.

  36. Douglas Watts Says:

    People who do physical work aren’t worth as much as educated people who work even harder than assembly line workers.

    I will assume this is snark.

  37. businessword.com Says:

    The star of this show has been Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN). He personally researched the issues, spending days in NYC talking to financial experts and others and coming up with creative, smart solutions. Outstanding for a freshman senator, former businessman who knows how to think entrepreneurially.

    He’s the GOP’s new star.

  38. businessword.com Says:

    “I will assume this is snark.”

    Hardly.

  39. rww Says:

    @business word: What is your definition of “worth”? If it means “contributions to the economic wellbeing of the country”, then let’s add up what finance has contributed to the economy over the last decade. I come up with a negative figure somewhere north of a $trillion.

  40. ottovbvs Says:

    The Curmudgeon Says:

    December 12th, 2008 at 9:46 am

    Sorry, it isn’t going to happen because the administration isn’t as dumb as you or Shelby or all these other folks like Bruce who can’t see the wood for the trees. The current immediate reason the big three are in trouble is because they’ve lost 40%+ of their volume and that would leave any business in trouble. No one disputes that they have structural problems and that there needs to be capacity reductions at the D3 but it needs to be done in an orderly fashion and not in a way that results in the industry collapsing with consequences that would be cataclysmic for the wider economy and create as Dick Cheney apparently puts it “Herbert Hoover time.” Regional obtuseness or masochistic tendencies may make this sound like a desirable option but it’s not a widely popular sentiment in most of the country.

  41. Mannwich Says:

    This bailout will happen. Now they’re talking about using the so-called “TARP” funds for the auto bailout. Wonderful. All is well with the world again. Buy, buy, buy!!! There’s always a bull market somewhere!!

  42. wunsacon Says:

    >> It is my belief that the bailouts are guaranteeing we have a depression and not the severe correction. Look at history.

    Unfortunately, interpreting historical precedent appears to be an art. And you and I interpret it differently. I see attempts to reflate as positive forces. They work. Even if not with anywhere near “surgical” precision and even though there’s a probability of overshooting (requiring Volcker-esque interest rates later), they work. I see deflation as the worse evil.

    >> Virtually everyone is a believer in the Austrian school..be it Ron Paul, Peter Schiff, Hugh Hendry etc…and not one who predicted what would happen recommends these bailouts.

    So, the only people who predicted these problems are from the Austrian school? No. For instance, our host, Barry, is not in that camp, even though he’s said before that he’s “sympathetic” to those views. And he predicted this disaster.

    I suspect you *think* Austrian school followers have all the answers because you tend to listen to them more and they’re better than the pundits on CNBC. But, they’re not the only ones who predicted this.

    >> I suggest you ask anyone who ACCURATELY predicted the crisis in the US.

    Roubini predicted the crisis and wants fiscal stimulus and bailouts. Maybe not *this* bailout. But, certainly bank recapitalizations. (Anyone else, please step in here and correct me if necessary.)

  43. larster Says:

    Corker and McConnell had another agenda and are using the UAW issue as a reason. Why did they spring this as a last minute deal breaker? Let’s no0t forget that these guys never spoke up about wasting 12 billion a month in Iraq. Hey, scramble some brains here, blow off a few limbs there- no problem. Save jobs for American workers and an American company? Hell no, we’re Republicans.

    We are dependent more and more on foreign financing of our lifestyle. Why would anyone look at the failure of leadership by the Senate and continue to finance us? If we will not help ourselves, who will? Just food for thought.

  44. Mannwich Says:

    @businessword.com: “Star” in the GOP? Isn’t that an oxymoron?

  45. Mannwich Says:

    @businessword.com: It’s largely your attitude that has us in the predicament this country is in today. Just sayin’……

  46. constantnormal Says:

    @ Douglas Watts, businessword.com — “I will assume this is snark.”

    If it’s not snark, it’s stoopid.

    Most “educated” people lack — to a profound degree — the ability to compose a rational and logical argument, and are every bit as driven by emotion and superstition as any assembly line worker. If the argument is that office workers put in more hours, I question how many of those hours are spent in non-productive activities (surfing the web?), making the office more of a social club than a place of business.

    I am not claiming that assembly line workers are better than (so-called) “educated workers” (the implication being that assembly line workers are uneducated and ignorant), merely that the (so-called) “educated workers” are every bit as lacking of the benefits of education as the assembly line workers.

  47. constantnormal Says:

    Oh, silly me, a troll!

  48. danm Says:

    This is hilarious!

    If the banks got their bailouts, why can’t the Big 3 get their bailouts? No fair!

    And this will be next:

    They deserve a bailout! And everyone else too. Let’s send a big fat cheque to every Amercian and be done with it!

  49. Ventura2012 Says:

    “14 billion to save X-mas for 1 million people who actually work for a living: NO WAY !!!”

    @dedude

    Stop the liberal scare tactics why not say the facts.

    “14 billion subsidized by the American public to continue to pay above market salaries to UAW workers of insolvent companies”

  50. The Curmudgeon Says:

    I remember in my international economics class way back in the eighties when Detroit’s automakers had started their relentless slide into oblivion. The professor showed how it would be more beneficial to the country to pay each displaced domestic autoworker about $58,000 to go away, if we could just drop the tariffs and import quotas preventing the import of more Toyotas and Hondas.

    The tariffs and import quotas were never eased, so the foreign carmakers decided to become domestics, and today employ many thousands (but, admittedly, without a jobs bank to protect them from the market in which they are engaged). Trust me though, there is no shortage of folks trying to get jobs with these foreign car makers. Their wages are still some of the best in manufacturing.

    Nothing the government does or can do will change the fact that Toyota and Honda make better cars for a better price. It can interfere (at the point of a bayonet) with people that want to buy better made cars at a better price, but it is just hurting all of us at the expense of a small few clinging to a long-past era of American world hegemony in all of manufacturing (post WWII) that allowed workers to extract monopoly profits through wage and benefit negotiations.

    The US steel industry succumbed long ago to the reality, with nearly all of its major players reorganizing in bankruptcy at some point or another. That the car makers try to instill fear of great calamity if they go bankrupt is disingenuous and flies in the face of experiences in steel-making, airlines, et.al.

    People still flew on bankrupt airlines. People will still buy cars from a bankrupt car maker–but only if the cars are worth buying.

  51. Mannwich Says:

    As many of us pointed out at the start of this bailout ridiculousness, they should have never started down this slippery slope to begin with……

    Now there’s no end in sight to the “bailouts”. Who is next to line up at the trough? Shall we take a guess?

    I’ll take one – commercial real estate.

  52. DeDude Says:

    Businessword; yes sitting on those soft chairs in those warm offices all day can be so hard on your dumb a$$. And the wear on you brain as you try to find new ways to export jobs to China and run American companies to the ground – absolutely exhausting. Definitely, those bumbs are worth so much more than people who make something useful.

  53. Ventura2012 Says:

    @dedude

    I dont think the people sitting on their soft chairs are the ones that are responsible for exporting jobs to foreign manufacturers, I think the UAW and unions are doing a great job of it. I am sure the Chinese and Japanese love the unions because no union industry can compete with non union industries. Please point out one union industry that is thriving.

  54. businessword.com Says:

    Having done both physical and administrative work, I can tell you that being a manager with accountability and responsibility for the welfare of a company and its employees is a heck of a lot harder than lifting and shoving. Are there slackers wearing white collars? Of course, but look at the absenteeism rate in the UAW.

    The market values and pays educated, smart people more than it pays uneducated, smart people. Simple fact of life, there are more uneducated people who can work in factories than educated people who can sell and run things.

  55. Mannwich Says:

    @businessword: As we’ve seen, the market doesn’t always “value” the right things. Your argument in the face of all we’ve seen is just absurd.

  56. DP Says:

    I know I’m starting to sound like a broken record on this, but we keep hearing “Nobody will buy a car from a bankrupt automaker”.

    Nobody will buy a car from them period. Knowing that the government can flick a switch and kill them by March. Knowing that they were already bankrupt before the government bailed them out.

    Seriously. Let’s say they get the bailout today. Who do you see buying a new GM or Chrysler over the next few months? They’re done. Put that 15 billion (and whatever other amount it takes) into a special fund to pay those workers a fair salary to retrain in a new profession for a year then let the economy take its course. Impractical I know because of all the “me too!” calls from any other business in trouble, but there has to be a better use for that money…

  57. ottovbvs Says:

    “The Curmudgeon Says:

    December 12th, 2008 at 10:22 am
    I remember in my international economics class way back in the eighties when Detroit’s automakers had started their relentless slide into oblivion.”

    Your international economics class obviously didn’t cover the difference between commodities (steel and airline tickets) and premium products (autos, Gucci handbags). It’s rather fundamental. Actually, there are plenty of examples of where the US auto industry is making excellent cars, they can’t be all that bad since they still account for just over 40% of the US market despite relentless competition for German and Japanese autos. After all if it was a quality issue why are Toyotas, Nissans and BMW’s volumes off over 30%. Yes the industry has structural problems and to be fair they have been battling mightily over the past year or two to correct them but that’s not the immediate cause of their difficulties which is a collapse of volume in an industry that is particularly sensitive to achieving break even numbers because of the capital intensive nature of the process and complexity of the product itself.

  58. jason Says:

    alas it seems Bush has thrown the towel in and is coughing up the dough…

    I was getting use to the idea of living in a cave and now need to re-adjust my paradigm for the next few days…

    Banks, Insurers, Auto Makers…who is next…Burroughs Adding Machine Co…slugs…junkies

  59. ottovbvs Says:

    DP Says:

    December 12th, 2008 at 10:54 am

    I don’t think this is true except at the margins because they are still selling hundreds of thousands of cars each month but it certainly has the potential to come true if these companies are put into bankruptcy although most of the people who want to destroy the auto industry actually deny this (see curmudgeon above for a typical bland dismissal of the danger of this happening). The folks who tout this as the solution have no idea of the complexity involved in making a car nor the basic laws of marketing.

  60. DeDude Says:

    Ventura2012;

    “It was the gov’t that caused the reckless behavoir of our financial system and the result is the crisis we are in”

    Yes, and that is exactly the reason that government should take responsibility and do what it can to break the fall as much as posible. The productivity and wealth that is lost when 25% of the workforce just runs around desperately looking for work (and food) is lost forever. That is why this “just let it all fall, the deeper the better” ideology is not just BS but dangerous BS. When you get down that deep there is no way out because you connot get the demand for goods started up again without a consumer class that dare to consume.

    The union industries in this country are not doing good because of the union busting policies we have had since 1980. As a result the consumer class has been sucking wind for at least a decade, and it is now tanking. For those who understand the simplicity of the GDP, and what it means that consumption is 70% of GDP, it is not hard to understand that the problems of the consumer class is the main problem of this country.

    In the Scandinavian countries pretty much everybody is in a union and those countries (with their minimum wages 3x ours) and their unionized industries have done just fine. They have been among the top 10 of the world’s wealthiest contries for as long as I can remember. And that with socialized medicine, free education, huge taxes and all that “bad” “socialist” stuff. The reason is simply that in contrast to what you neo-con-men postulate all the time, the most important thing for economic growth is to make sure that the consumer class is large and healthy. Everything else is secondary.

  61. Boomer Says:

    Didn’t one of the Fusion people say it wasn’t so much the news but the way the market reacts to the news? Sure seems like this market wants to go up.

  62. businessword.com Says:

    Here’s the real issue in the automakers bailout debate.

    Politicians corruptly created and fostered the subprime market that helped produce the housing bubble and the bubbles in consumer and government debt. All bubbles eventually burst. When these bubbles, among others, burst, consumers stopped buying houses and cars and lots of other stuff. Auto makers, due to union greed and management missteps were extremely vulnerable when the economic collapse came.

    So you can say that the automakers are the victims of the home buyers and sellers, mortgage bankers and brokers, Wall Street engineers and politicians that brought the economic collapse and the 40% drop in auto sales to 10 million annualized from some 16 or 17 million annualized. So you can say society has a responsibility to bailout automakers from a situation not totally of their making. You can say that for retailers, mall owners, hotel and restaurant owners, starbucks, Circuit City, Dell, etc. Where does it stop?

    You also can say that if the UAW and automakers hadn’t conspired to create their own ponzi scheme, they wouldn’t be in the mess they’re in. They would be withstanding the recession the way Caterpillar is. Remember, Cat stood up to and fought the UAW into restructuring their contracts so that the company could grow and thrive while still organized by the UAW. Auto companies didn’t have the good sense nor the courage to follow CAT’s lead. CAT is solvent and Detroit is not.

    It’s all very complex and political. At this point, political imperatives are winning over economic common sense.

  63. ottovbvs Says:

    jason Says:

    December 12th, 2008 at 11:03 am
    alas it seems Bush has thrown the towel in and is coughing up the dough…

    As I predicted. The administration does not have a death wish unlike those held prisoner by intelluctual rigidity, urban myths, and extreme ideology.

  64. businessword.com Says:

    How many have noticed how CNBC’s Phil Labeau, the network’s auto industry reporter, is in the tank for the auto industry and the UAW. John Harwood isn’t much better.

  65. bcasey Says:

    I still want heads, on bloody sticks, Banker heads that is. Yes the auto industry can not compete with their current business model. Not only do they need to make less gas sucking fuel hounds, they also need to make the majority of them for under 15k and still make a profit. Nonetheless I’m sick of hearing a bunch of whining New Yorkers slam the auto industry when less than a couple months ago they were saying things like unthinkable consequences, can’t let the banks fail, let it trickle down… Bankers do not make anything, they just charge interest, fees and penalties. At least automakers convert raw resourses into something with some value. I think the problem here is most everyone still views this as an economic cycle, when in actuality it is an historic cycle. Historic cycles usually begin and end with heads rolling. As soon as the bankers start to realize that I suspect it will be too late.

  66. Douglas Watts Says:

    Having done both physical and administrative work, I can tell you that being a manager with accountability and responsibility for the welfare of a company and its employees is a heck of a lot harder than lifting and shoving.

    I think you need to change your definition of “physical” work to “unskilled” work.

    Playing major league baseball is primarily physical work. Being a concert pianist is primarily physical work. Being a furniture maker is primarily physical work. Pruning commercial apple trees (which my father did) is primarily physical work. Welding is primarily physical work. Being a field geologist is primarily physical work. Being a potter or goldsmith is primarily physical work. Being an automobile mechanic is primarily physical work. All of these professions are built around doing “physical work” but require a high degree of intellect to master and perform competently — certainly as much or more than managing a business.

    Indeed, most of these trades (auto repair, carpentry etc.) require you to also run your own business and be in charge of 2-12 employees.

  67. DeDude Says:

    Businessword;

    “Having done both physical and administrative work, I can tell you that being a manager with accountability and responsibility for the welfare of a company and its employees is a heck of a lot harder than lifting and shoving”

    I been in both too so you don’t fool me. I will gladly raise you 10 UAW workers who would be more than happy to switch their work, pay and benfits with yours. If the market forces have given us a situation where you get a lot more compensation for destrying a company than from making something usefull then the market forces obviously don’t work and needs to be fixed.

    And the reason that a CEO gets an 8 figure bonus for having run his company into bancrupcy has nothing to do with market forces. It has everything to do with stacking the compensation boards with little backscratching circles of friends.

  68. Norman Says:

    I’m new to this discussion, and I find it fascinating.

    Is there anything wrong with the UAW asking for the moon so long as management does not agree to give it to them?

  69. Bruce N Tennessee Says:

    You guys are right…there is another solution. UAW becomes owners of GM. Then they can build whatever cars they want and pay whatever wages the market will allow.

    Again, no one here is against the UAW…certainly not me. But you can argue until you are blue in the face that when you come begging to Washington for money, but don’t want what they offer you, and it may mean your job, then the leadership of the UAW is wrong.

    I guess those guys who lose their jobs can all become independent contractors or plumbers or roofers or something else.

    Or we can mandate that Toyota raise all salaried workers by 12-15 dollars per hour immediately, so that it is “fair”…

    Or we can tell Wal-Mart to quit selling toys so inexpensively so that Toys R Us can make more money.

    Of course the UAW has to change. You went to the bank for a loan, the banker said, we don’t think you are creditworthy unless you make these changes…and you said NO.

    Quityourbitchin…

  70. Mannwich Says:

    @Bruce N Tenn: I agree with that. What if the UAW made salary/bene’s concessions in return for equity ownership in the autos? Seems like a fair trade to me.

  71. ap Says:

    I don’t think I would rely on Sen. Corker to be the model of behavior here -

    ” A blind trust set up to shield businessman Bob Corker from conflicts when he was Chattanooga’s mayor may not have been all that blind, record show.

    Corker met often with employees from his private companies while mayor from 2001 to 2005, and he shared business tips with others. Corker also got help organizing his 2001 mayoral campaign from City Hall, where a government secretary passed on voting lists and set up meetings for the millionaire commercial real estate developer.”

    Yeah – that’s who you want negotiating on the side who is “trying to look responsible” in this deal? What a joke.

  72. Bruce N Tennessee Says:

    Fellows and gals:

    Look, I am just being a realist. That is it. Period.

    Same thing happens here in east Tennesse every day. Now gas has about a 15Cents/gallon differential thoughout town…guess what.. BP, the “high priced spread” doesn’t have that much business, most days.

    The low cost guys…they have folks two to three deep many mornings…

    Same idea. Everybody wants to sell cars or gas or something….

    Just be realistic…I would hope GM’s top management would all go…but that doesn’t answer the wage inequity, and that is just realistic.

    Why is Ford considering building in Russia? Wages. Why have plants been moved to Mexico? Wages.

    YES, we all want Americans to make excellent wages…but wishing it by the UAW brass won’t make it so.

  73. DL Says:

    What I don’t understand is, why can’t GM just shut down most of their production capacity until February? Maybe GM management is contractually obligated to pay their workers anyway (via the jobs bank), but why not just refuse to pay them until February? They’re all going to be in “fat city” once Obama gets in there. It just seems to me that GM could easily conserve cash until then.

  74. Bruce N Tennessee Says:

    DL:

    That makes perfectly good sense to me, too.

  75. ap Says:

    Hmmm because GM and Chrysler still have to pay their suppliers, who have to pay their workers – and those workers have to pay their bills too – so that other companies can pay their workers, too!

  76. The Curmudgeon Says:

    ottovbvs says:

    “Your international economics class obviously didn’t cover the difference between commodities (steel and airline tickets) and premium products (autos, Gucci handbags). It’s rather fundamental. Actually, there are plenty of examples of where the US auto industry is making excellent cars, they can’t be all that bad since they still account for just over 40% of the US market despite relentless competition for German and Japanese autos. After all if it was a quality issue why are Toyotas, Nissans and BMW’s volumes off over 30%. Yes the industry has structural problems and to be fair they have been battling mightily over the past year or two to correct them but that’s not the immediate cause of their difficulties which is a collapse of volume in an industry that is particularly sensitive to achieving break even numbers because of the capital intensive nature of the process and complexity of the product itself.”

    Yes, and GM, Chrysler and Ford (maybe) are the only ones begging for help, while Toyota, Nissan and Honda continue to increase market share, even in this declining market. Face it, the tide of cheap money washed away and the domestics were caught naked. Does this “industry” of which you speak include the foreign manufacturers? Structural problems are best resolved in bankruptcy. Only there can union contracts be broken and fixed costs be permanently reduced. Your support of throwing more government support behind domestic car makers that have been leaching off government tariffs and import quotas since the seventies makes no sense. You must work for the UAW. I hope they pay you well, because no matter what happens, this is their last gasp. They are dinosaurs and the astroid is about to hit. Even after they get this bailout, everything is done but the shouting. There is no reason, save economic suicide, to pay somebody $80 an hour for work that can be done for less than half that.

  77. Douglas Watts Says:

    YES, we all want Americans to make excellent wages…

    Disagree. All of the pressure and corporate incentive is to drive American wages lower and lower while increasing CEO compensation to astronomic heights. But this causes a rub — as American wages decline in real terms, they no longer have $$$ to consume. Until this year, this contradiction was solved by a credit bubble and home equity ATM machines and total depletion of savings. Now the bubble has popped.

  78. Mannwich Says:

    @Curmudgeon: Good point but if this fiasco continues, you can bet your bippy the foreign autos here in the U.S. will be looking for a bailout too.

  79. DeDude Says:

    Bruce; yes I think we need to mandate that non-unionized factories pay the same salries as the unionized. There should be no rewards for union busting. Then we off course also need to slap huge tariffs on imports from non-unionized factories. The rich bastards will do whatever they can to get around treating the workers fairly and you need to keep a close eye on them.

  80. Mannwich Says:

    @Douglas Watts: Which is precisely why the Feds WANT to keep inflating the credit bubble. It’s the only way to get the economy again (while keeping those in debt slavery longer), aside from increasing wages, and we can’t do that!

  81. Douglas Watts Says:

    There is no reason, save economic suicide, to pay somebody $80 an hour for work that can be done for less than half that.

    False. Try $25-30 an hour. Source: General Motors, Inc., “GM Manufacturing and Labor Resources, Media Handbook,” p. 29, at http://www.media.gm.com/manufacturing/handbook/other_benefits.pdf (December 8, 2008).

    You need to find new talking points that aren’t so demonstrably false.

  82. Mannwich Says:

    @DW: But those are the union-busting talking points. Reality or facts don’t matter. New employees in the UAW, if I have my facts straight, now make $14/hour to start plus bene’s. Doesn’t exactly seem like they’re hitting the jackpot to me.

    Why doesn’t anyone ever bring up the fact that the autos didn’t support the health care plan back in the early ’90s’ that would have taken this big cost burden off of their spreadsheets? This is a huge issue. No other first world country has health insurance under the corporate umbrella. We all need to wake up fast and stop clinging to this ideology or that ideology to prove how smart we all are……..

  83. ap Says:

    “There is no reason, save economic suicide, to pay somebody $80 an hour for work that can be done for less than half that.”

    Yeah so let’s try that with the Wall Street Bailout – Hank Paulson made over $500 million in 2005. That’s only about $284,000 per hour – if he worked a 40 hour week.

    Citigroup’s Pandit – least paid CEO on Wall Street will still make about $12,000 per hour – on salary alone.

    Buffett only gets $10 million – about $4800 per hour.

    Such a ridiculous statement. None of those workers caused a economic collapse – which caused No Credit – which means no one can buy a car.

  84. Douglas Watts Says:

    As the Heritage Foundation points out, the $70/hour meme is the estimated value of health insurance and all other benefits a Big 3 auto worker receives plus their actual hourly wage of $25-30/hour.

    The $70/hour talking point is dishonest in the extreme. If you count the value health insurance, pension and other benefits, my mother, who worked for AT&T and Comcast as an administrative assistant until last year, made $50-$60 an hour easy.

    The $70/hour is a deliberately deceptive number.

  85. The Curmudgeon Says:

    @Douglas Watts: I said $80, you said $25-30. Whose more “demonstrably false”? (Hint: $80 is closer to $73 than is $25-30.)

    From the document you cited:

    TOTAL COMPENSATION
    The total of both cash compensation and benefits provided
    to GM hourly workers in 2006 amounted to approximately
    $73.26 per active hour worked. This total is made of two
    main components: cash compensation ($39.68) and
    benefit/government required programs ($33.58).

    And that doesn’t include the GIS, more commonly known as the “Jobs Bank”, where they pay up to 90% of your salary for doing NOTHING, all the way up to retirement, when they start paying that, too.

    I wonder, can a GM employee even tell the difference between working, being laid off, or being retired?

    This is the sort of “structural problem” that can only find a solution in bankruptcy. GM will not be a competitive, profitable company until they rewrite their contracts with the UAW. Period. And there is no way to do that w/out bankruptcy, which is precisely why the UAW wants us to think the world would end if GM went bankrupt.

  86. Douglas Watts Says:

    Curmudgeon:

    You said: There is no reason, save economic suicide, to pay somebody $80 an hour for work that can be done for less than half that.

    When you pay someone $80 an hour, you pay them $80 an hour. This is totally separate from the estimated value/cost of the benefit package.

    I am pointing out that the Republican Talking Point Machine is repeatedly saying that GM workers get paid $70 an hour. This is provably false.

    Stop trying to move the goal posts.

  87. ottovbvs Says:

    The Curmudgeon Says:

    December 12th, 2008 at 12:52 pm

    Your response, in which you quote all kinds of misinformation (including the notorious $80 an hour Detroit auto workers allegedly receive) demonstrates you clearly did miss that class about commodities because if they go into bankruptcy it will take months and during that time their market share will collapse as surely as night follows day.

    You also don’t seem to know much about auto industry economics either. So here’s a little 101 on foreign auto makers like Toyota and VW. These guys all run heavily unionized operations in their domestic markets which are protected behind a host of visible and invisible barriers. This is particularly the case in Japan as I know from personal experience. If you go there you’re not going see many American cars and it has nothing to do with quality. None of them have to worry about little matters like healthcare provision for workers because it’s provided by the state.

    In the eighties these companies as a solution to the growing US backlash against Japanese auto exports while offering no reciprocity on US imports into Japan, started building manufacturing plants in the US. They chose Southern, right to work states, where they could pay lower wages and benefits, and just as important gEt all kinds of sweetheart deals from the states involved. Having been personally involved in one such transaction you would be amazed at how sweet the deal was including tax breaks, free land, equipment subsidies, infrastructure development, training subsidies, and so forth. Some of these plants set up over ten years ago are still paying no state taxes. Apparently undermining the American economy is just fine with you just so long as it squares with a bunch of simplistic economic ideas you picked up from Rush Limbaugh by the sound of it.

    Yes the US has a bunch of structural problems which are being sorted but I repeat the immediate problem is not the UAW, legacy costs, the American consumer’s love affair with big trucks etc. It’s quite simply because the market has fallen from around 17.5 million units to a current annualized rate of around 10 million. This has cut the volume of the big three by something over 40% and foreign competitors by around 30% – the difference arises because of the domestic industry’s higher dependence on big trucks, although even here Toyota has had to idle a major truck plant. Interestingly, all these foreign companies although heavily unionized, since unions seem to be the particular object of your ire, are highly profitable. And btw I don’t work for the UAW but have spent a lot of time around the car and other automotive industries.

    Fortunately, the admin doesn’t seem to be taking its directions from Shelby or folks who think like yourself, and will be coming up with the dough.

  88. Bruce in Tn Says:

    I would like to thank all the debate participants for not calling each other pimply-faced snotballs or other off the topic monikers

  89. Ventura2012 Says:

    @doug

    Does it matter whether it is 70, 50, or 20 an hour? The companies are not profitable so why should some Americans carry that burden and subsidize wages of an unprofitable business?

  90. Ventura2012 Says:

    @ottobvs

    So we should follow the Japanese model of subsidizing domestic producers? How has that worked out for the Japanese economy over the past 20 years?

  91. ap Says:

    “At Toyota, which was offering loans with zero percent interest on 11 of its normally popular models, sales fell 33.9 percent. Honda’s sales dropped 31.6 percent and Nissan’s plunged 42.2 percent.

    “This isn’t a Detroit issue; the whole industry is certainly suffering,” said Ron Pinelli, the president of MotorIntelligence.com, which tracks industry sales.

    “It’s not a question of what the automakers can do,” Mr. Pinelli said. “It’s a question of consumer confidence. You can’t induce someone to buy something if they don’t feel good about the purchase — if it’s just not the right time to buy or they can’t get financing for it.”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/03/business/03sales.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

    The UAW issue is just an excuse for some to argue. A local Honda dealership said they hadn’t sold a car in over a month. A local Toyota dealership just announced big layoffs.

  92. The Curmudgeon Says:

    ottovbvs is a pimply-faced snotball.

    But I really appreciate his insights. The market crashes. Everyone gets a bailout from the government, except those that actually make money. Geez, he’s right. I didn’t pay attention in my economics classes. You should reward failure with the tax revenue generated by the successful. That’s what I shoulda learnt!

    I must also have missed the lecture that explained that GM, Ford or Chrysler could have relocated their plants in the South, getting all those free goodies doled out by Southern states glad to have their business. Oh, except the UAW wouldn’t let them.

    And yes, I missed the class where bankruptcy destroys market share. Somebody should have also told the airlines. I guess folks will fly on a bankrupt airline, but not buy a vehicle from a bankrupt automaker. Must have been asleep during that lecture. Seems like I remember something about the airlines using bankruptcy to renegotiate labor contracts, but geez, from what professor ottovbvs says, that couldn’t be the case. Besides, there is a big difference between manufacturing cars and flying airplanes. Apparently, the secret to doing one successfully is something other than keeping costs lower than the revenue stream generated thereby. But silly me. Making cars is so much more complicated than carrying passengers at six hundred miles per hour and thirty thousand feet. It’s obvious in my naivete that I just don’t get this difficult business of making cars. Didn’t get that difficult business of borrowing short to lend long at 35 times equity either, but the good folks at the TARP got me straightened out on that one, too. Thankfully the good ol’ US of A has an unlimited supply of dollars to get us out of these predicaments, else we might be in trouble.

    I also missed the lecture on how tax breaks for domestic manufacturing concerns that employ workers at handsome wages undermines the American economy. But you’re right–it’s them durn foreigners coming over here and selling cars made by them hick right-to-workers that’s just destroying America.

    Good grief.

  93. DeDude Says:

    Get the truth about that $ 70/hour here:

    http://mediamatters.org/items/200812060002

    As they point out the $69 “includes not only current workers’ hourly wages and benefits, such as health care and retirement, but also retirement and health-care benefits that U.S. automakers are providing for current retirees”

    So the reason it gets so high is that the retirement benefits promised back when their workforce were a lot bigger is calculated into the number for their current labor cost. So as usual the right wing media and its servants speew out misinformation and neo-con talking points not the truth.

  94. ap Says:

    “Making cars is so much more complicated than carrying passengers at six hundred miles per hour and thirty thousand feet. ”

    Very true statement. Just look at the up-front cost structure – apples to rocks comparison.

  95. Bruce in Tn Says:

    Curmudge:

    That made me smile…..

  96. The Curmudgeon Says:

    Very true statement. Just look at the up-front cost structure – apples to rocks comparison

    Yes, and Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, Honda, Nissan, et al., don’t face the same up-front cost structures as the “big” three?

    I guess I should have said that making cars in America by a domestic automobile manufacturer but not a foreign automobile manufacturer is so much more complicated…

    Enjoyed the tit for tat with all you UAW bleeders, but I gotta go make some money so Uncle Sam can dole it out at the union hall.

    Curmudgeon out.

  97. DeDude Says:

    So part of the $70/hour is the cost of the health insurance to 432,000 retirees. If government had not been a sleep at the wheel, they would have required that this cost had been deposited in a trust fund back when those 432,000 retirees were still working and producing cars. The current crisis has a lot to do with allowing previous shareholders and CEO’s to rape and plunder the company, rather than keeping them honest and responsible. Stop blaming the workers for this kind of mismanagement.

  98. ottovbvs Says:

    The Curmudgeon Says:

    December 12th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
    ottovbvs is a pimply-faced snotball.

    No doubt I am, but with this situation as with most situations the devil is in the details. But all the facts as I laid them out are accurate if inconvenient. And as they will tell you in MBA marketing 101 classes there is a world of difference between a commodity product like airline tickets with a face value of maybe $750 and shelf life of two weeks and a high value premium product with a shelf life of years. That’s why they have frequent flier programs to differentiate the product.

  99. Greg0658 Says:

    Bruce N Tennessee Says: December 12th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
    “You guys are right…there is another solution. UAW becomes owners of GM. Then they can build whatever cars they want and pay whatever wages the market will allow”

    I like that one.
    You think the banks will allow the UAW pension savings fund to withdrawl their $#s and transfer the $ (like 3-5 Billion) to own the company? Instead of the bankruptcy sollution? Maybe play it like a Wall Street pro and get it down to a $1-2B pricetag first. If we hear something like “funds not avaialble for immediate withdrawl” thats what the TARP is for isn’t it? Hey the UAW can become a duopoly too – a bank (GMAC) and make money the easy way too?

    Curmudgeon Says: December 12th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
    “And that doesn’t include the GIS, more commonly known as the “Jobs Bank”, where they pay up to 90% of your salary for doing NOTHING, all the way up to retirement, when they start paying that, too.”

    That one gets me – coming from die hard economist. The UAW and GM created an Unemployment Insurance System outside of the government, an industry self contained system. Do you approve of the WalMart* way of providing unemployment and health benefits or the “Jobs Bank”? Which is it? Lets set the standard.

    businessword.com Says: December 12th, 2008 at 11:11 am
    “How many have noticed how CNBC’s Phil Labeau, the network’s auto industry reporter, is in the tank for the auto industry and the UAW. John Harwood isn’t much better”

    Ya I’ve noticed … the compassion for the other world … happens when you get outside of the “Financial Capital of the World” … that exists by wringing every cent it can from the real work force for its own survival.

  100. wunsacon Says:

    These autoworkers make something like — what? — $14-30/hr? Compare that with the 6-figure and sometimes 7-figure salaries of run-of-the-mill mortgage brokers instrumental to the bubble/bust. Meritocracy? I think not!!

  101. Greg0658 Says:

    I’ve had time to learn a little on FlashPlayer
    see post Greg0658 Says: December 12th, 2008 at 8:26 am

    found this control panel that I have to pass on … fyi:
    http://www.macromedia.com/support/documentation/en/flashplayer/help/settings_manager04.html

    so much to know – so little time
    are the passing on of words from generation to generation a curse or a blessing?

  102. Greg0658 Says:

    I said a minute ago – “are the passing on of words from generation to generation a curse or a blessing?”

    lame last thought ..
    there have been alot of great advancements due to words being passed on
    and some not so good

    hope ya get the message
    :-)