Comments on: NFP: -533,000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-533000/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 10:33:19 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-533000/comment-page-2/#comment-131283 Mannwich Sat, 06 Dec 2008 22:35:03 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11939#comment-131283 @Patrick Neid: Which means we are likely to see far worse numbers in December going forward well into '09. The real mess is just starting. @Patrick Neid: Which means we are likely to see far worse numbers in December going forward well into ’09. The real mess is just starting.

]]> By: Patrick Neid http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-533000/comment-page-2/#comment-131117 Patrick Neid Sat, 06 Dec 2008 00:37:12 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11939#comment-131117 Bespoke put today's number in perspective. How bad was it? It doesn't even make the top 40. While the number was large the workforce has expanded accordingly. On a percent of the workforce today's number was 41st. December 1974 was twice as bad. Today's number would have had to exceed 1,000,000 to compare. http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/12/41st-worst-monthly-jobs-report-on-recordyes-41st.html Bespoke put today’s number in perspective. How bad was it? It doesn’t even make the top 40. While the number was large the workforce has expanded accordingly. On a percent of the workforce today’s number was 41st.

December 1974 was twice as bad. Today’s number would have had to exceed 1,000,000 to compare.

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/12/41st-worst-monthly-jobs-report-on-recordyes-41st.html

]]> By: RiskAverseAlert http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-533000/comment-page-2/#comment-131089 RiskAverseAlert Fri, 05 Dec 2008 22:00:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11939#comment-131089 I'll say it again... The bottom in July 1932 was months prior to the banking system going into its death spiral. I’ll say it again… The bottom in July 1932 was months prior to the banking system going into its death spiral.

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-533000/comment-page-2/#comment-131063 Mark E Hoffer Fri, 05 Dec 2008 21:06:04 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11939#comment-131063 Andy Tabbo Says: December 5th, 2008 at 12:29 pm Message to my fellow TBP folks who are short right now. If this market manages to start trading positive on the day after this data, then I would seriously consider exiting said short positions. It’s still possible we could leg down to that 800 zone still, but it’s time for shorts to become aware of risks they currently face to the upside. Seriously. - AT nice seeing, AT, better call~ Andy Tabbo Says:

December 5th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Message to my fellow TBP folks who are short right now. If this market manages to start trading positive on the day after this data, then I would seriously consider exiting said short positions.

It’s still possible we could leg down to that 800 zone still, but it’s time for shorts to become aware of risks they currently face to the upside.

Seriously.

- AT

nice seeing, AT, better call~

]]> By: tranchefoot http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-533000/comment-page-2/#comment-131043 tranchefoot Fri, 05 Dec 2008 20:38:52 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11939#comment-131043 AT, I also have been following your posts with a lot of interest. I really appreciate you sharing your insights with the rest of us. Can you recommend a source to begin learning elliot wave theory? Thx. AT,

I also have been following your posts with a lot of interest. I really appreciate you sharing your insights with the rest of us. Can you recommend a source to begin learning elliot wave theory? Thx.

]]> By: Andy Tabbo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-533000/comment-page-2/#comment-131038 Andy Tabbo Fri, 05 Dec 2008 20:23:31 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11939#comment-131038 CPJ13. No problems. It was a nice intraday move. Because I use leverage and I don't like holding positions over weekends I'm out with SP500 at 865. I'm seeing intraday bearish RSI divergence at this point and I can see a sweet little five wave move on intraday charts. So, I'm sort of in neutral position. Will look to buy back on any good little dips on Sunday or Monday. - AT CPJ13.

No problems. It was a nice intraday move. Because I use leverage and I don’t like holding positions over weekends I’m out with SP500 at 865. I’m seeing intraday bearish RSI divergence at this point and I can see a sweet little five wave move on intraday charts. So, I’m sort of in neutral position. Will look to buy back on any good little dips on Sunday or Monday.

- AT

]]> By: CPJ13 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-533000/comment-page-2/#comment-131019 CPJ13 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 19:32:28 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11939#comment-131019 @ Borchers: Good call. @ AT: Please keep it coming, I appreciate your insight. WTF today. I'm bleeding bad. Don't know if I have the balls to take losses here. @ Borchers: Good call.

@ AT: Please keep it coming, I appreciate your insight.

WTF today. I’m bleeding bad. Don’t know if I have the balls to take losses here.

]]> By: Broken http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-533000/comment-page-2/#comment-131012 Broken Fri, 05 Dec 2008 19:15:47 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11939#comment-131012 The -533K employment loss number is, of course, BS. MoM employment actually dropped 634K, but the magic seasonal adjustment erased 100K of that. Also, don't forget the inevitable 100K+ "adjustment" to the November numbers come December. YoY, November is down 1.95 million, even including the +300K new Government jobs. The -533K employment loss number is, of course, BS.

MoM employment actually dropped 634K, but the magic seasonal adjustment erased 100K of that. Also, don’t forget the inevitable 100K+ “adjustment” to the November numbers come December.

YoY, November is down 1.95 million, even including the +300K new Government jobs.

]]> By: willid3 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-533000/comment-page-2/#comment-130999 willid3 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 18:21:48 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11939#comment-130999 i suspect we will see more bad news. we may get to 10-15 % unemployment (in U3 no less). and deflation will probably take hold and stay a while. we may get a big bounce when we do get a big stimulus, but if the business community doesn't pitch in, then it will be done again. and so far, they have done very little (at least since 2000 anyway but contribute to a big mess). GDP may finally be a real number, and will be less 0 than for a year. and who knows, wall street may even like 5000 (or less). i suspect we will see more bad news. we may get to 10-15 % unemployment (in U3 no less). and deflation will probably take hold and stay a while. we may get a big bounce when we do get a big stimulus, but if the business community doesn’t pitch in, then it will be done again. and so far, they have done very little (at least since 2000 anyway but contribute to a big mess). GDP may finally be a real number, and will be less 0 than for a year. and who knows, wall street may even like 5000 (or less).

]]> By: Porsche87 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/nfp-533000/comment-page-2/#comment-130994 Porsche87 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 18:08:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=11939#comment-130994 What was the birth/death adjustment on today's numbers? I'll bet things are worse than even this horrible number indicate. What was the birth/death adjustment on today’s numbers? I’ll bet things are worse than even this horrible number indicate.

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