More than any employment number in recent memory, today’s is a total crapshoot.

Its going to be ugly, but that’s no surprise. The only suspense is whether its going to be mediocre (i.e., 150k lost jobs), bad (250), awful (350) or horrific (500+).

Bloomberg survey consensus was for 333k.

We lost 240,000 jobs in October. I was going to choose 275k as a middle of the road number, but that’s probably too optimistic.

We could easily see a 400k or worse.

Given all of the layoffs and utter lack of hiring going on, I am going to throw out 365k as my guess — 1000 job losses per day for a year — in one month.

~~~

As always, remember that the trend is what matters — not any single monthly number. And for the past 24 months, the trend has been negative.

Category: Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

15 Responses to “NFP Preview”

  1. people are just waking up to how far the Plug has been pulled from the Socket..what they cower at imagining, is that, said, Plug is travelling, still, on the same vector, at increasing velocity..
    http://www.thefreedictionary.com/vector

    yes, def. #5

  2. John Borchers says:

    My guess says less jobs lost than last month because of coming Xmas season. Somewhere around -200k

  3. Steve Barry says:

    CNBC often hypes up the jobs number as being so critical…this time it is an understatement. Since Americans have virtually no savings, a single job loss will likely translate into a foreclosure if they own a home. You can re-fi to zero and they will still default. Job losses are going to explode higher and the market must tank accordingly. Put/calls and short interest are dangerously low to stop a market plummet if the number is very bad.

  4. TrickStar says:

    I’m in at 310,000.

  5. cfischer says:

    Ok so, 240,000 lost jobs in October. Initial claims 4 week average was 50k higher on average in Nov vs. Oct. Oct may have been helped by the hurricane workers going back to work. Hiring had to have been worse in Nov vs. Oct, (continueing claims keeps rising.)

    In at 405,000. I think there is a real chance of a 500,000+ number.

  6. rww says:

    BR, when do we see the end of the B-D adjustments?

  7. rogerdaily says:

    Steve Barry – you say:

    “CNBC often hypes up the jobs number as being so critical…this time it is an understatement. Since Americans have virtually no savings, a single job loss will likely translate into a foreclosure if they own a home.”

    I don’t care for CNBC but are you not the pot calling the kettle black here?

    How can you say that Americans collectively have no savings? I know two people who have been laid off and they both have plenty of savings. You must be a Chris Dodd democrat if you believe that foreclosures are solely caused by hardship. Plenty are caused by people CHOOSING to walk away due to no skin the in the game.

  8. I’d love to see a percentage — how many people voluntarily walk away versus those who are foreclosed upon?

    The walkaways are a relatively small % . . .

  9. “How can you say that Americans collectively have no savings?”

    roger, remember: Reading Is Fundamental.

    LSS: he didn’t, see your own quote of what he Did say.

    http://www.thefreedictionary.com/virtually
    http://www.thefreedictionary.com/likely

  10. cfischer says:

    Barry,

    To me, it would be a calculated move. How far underwater I am versus what I consider my credit to be worth for the following decade. I value my credit fairly highly, but if I was 150-200k underwater, I’d walk.

  11. mike j says:

    Wow. Horrific. -530 and add on another -80 to that for the October revision. Ouch.

  12. wally says:

    The time has come for ‘mainstream’ economists in the US to admit they have no clue what their ‘science’ is about… Benny B can go first.

  13. rogerdaily says:

    Barry

    You are wrong, wrong, wrong on the walkaways being a small percentage of foreclosures.

    If you were right, than foreclosures wouldn’t be sky high in cities out west with relatively low unemployment.

  14. roger,

    ever hear of “Option ARM” ‘s ?

    IOW: this ‘fact’: “If you were right, than foreclosures wouldn’t be sky high in cities out west with relatively low unemployment.”

    doesn’t support your conclusion: “You are wrong, wrong, wrong on the walkaways being a small percentage of foreclosures.”

    do us a favor, prove with Data, preferably verifiable..

  15. donna says:

    Actually, October was revised to over 400K. It’s much worse than we all think. And people are being laid off in December too, rather than hired on for Christmas….

    January will be fugly.