The U.S. stock market has already absorbed the worst of the selling pressure this year and will start to recover in 2009 but any progress might be limited.
12/22/2008
"My formula for success is rise early, work late and strike oil." —John Paul Getty
Consumer Credit outstanding fell $14.8b in Sept seasonally adjusted, almost $5b more than expected and marks the 11th month in the past 12 of declines. At $2.456T outstanding, it is 4.9% below the record high in July '08. After a flat reading in Aug, (didn't fall b/c of the CARS program), non revolving debt outstanding fell by $4.9B. Revolving (mostly credit cards) balances outstanding fell by $9.9B. To fully put into perspective today's data, look at the current level of consumer credit (doesn't include mortgages, the biggest chunk of consumer credit) relative to GDP. As of Q3, it totaled 17.2%...
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December 23rd, 2008 at 11:36 am
So…the “top strategists” who never saw the train coming are now telling us we’ll recover next year. Yeah right.