Relative U.S. Sector Performance (holiday version)
By Barry Ritholtz - December 22nd, 2008, 2:52PM
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Michael Panzner looks at the Median Performance of S&P 500 Sectors Relative to Index During the Period 12/24 – 12/31 (1989 – 2007)
Although U.S. share prices have historically had an upward bias over the Christmas holiday period (during the aforementioned span, the median nominal gain for the S&P 500 was 0.24%), some sectors have tended to perform better than others.
| Sector |
Median Performance Relative to S&P 500 From 12/24 – 12/31 (1989 – 2007) |
| Consumer Discretion | 0.37% |
| Materials | 0.36% |
| Industrials | 0.35% |
| Consumer Staples | 0.04% |
| Financials | 0.03% |
| Health Care | -0.07% |
| Telecom Services | -0.21% |
| Utilities | -0.25% |
| Energy | -0.33% |
| Information Technology | -0.43% |
December 22nd, 2008 at 4:13 pm
That was a nice bounce – that was about the time i got my rally monkey out.
spent about 2/3 of remaining trading cash.
basically just doubled on most of my core positions.
that looked like a good technical bounce to me.
AT – any thoughts on the action from here?
Medium term upward primary trend intact?
December 22nd, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Of the stocks that are showing strength, what are some companies in each of the sectors of “materials” and “industrials?”
December 22nd, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Okie: It’s a stock picker’s market…. smirk. I think you would probably find the companies with the big dividends in those groups as the value funds like to go for yield and would probably add to their book in EoY trading.
The outlook is quite good for refiners here with a defined range of oil prices. If crude is stable, they will do well once gasoline demand actually picks up a little. In this case the cure for low prices is low prices…
December 22nd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Tomorrow, the 21 day MA on market put/call will likely bottom under .9, the lowest level since Jan 07…Birinyi’s Blogger Poll is only 9% bears…Investor’s Intelligence Bulls seem to have hit the wall at 47%. The next leg down is now imminent…as soon as volume picks up, it is straight down.
December 22nd, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Starting January…redemptions and lawsuits will cripple hedge fund industry.
December 22nd, 2008 at 5:12 pm
SB: I am with you on this. Mish is calling for wave 5 down after Jan 20.
I would love to know what AT thinks.
My guess would be the first or second Monday or Tuesday of 2009.
A few days of new fund flows and then bang….
Several smart people think the move upward in the new year will be in investment grade.
Out of Treasuries but into higher grade debt and not into equities.
December 22nd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
leftback:
Thanks. I just started investing and I am trying to broaden my scope of potential stocks to buy. My first two stocks are down
. One of my first purchases was an oil company. Then I found out today that Flying-J filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy…and my pick was one of the largest creditors. Ugh.
Another reason I want to look at other stocks is that I feel that financial blogs are dominated by people who have too narrow of a view of the world. For instance, there seems to be a lot of “gold bugs” that comment; but it is also true that many — if not most — of them subscribe to a Libertarian-Mises-TEOTWAWKI worldview, which I think may be too “concrete” in its thinking (i.e. too much focus of gold as an “be all and end all” investment). “Oil bugs” can be the same way. I think that while oil stocks are down, they may stay down for a significant amount of time because of high unemployment, thereby reducing demand for consumer products, which then reduces demand on transportation of goods, which then reduces demand for oil. We are in a “vicious cycle.”
I am also in a debate about picking the right sector versus diversifying. Right now stocks are “cheap” by most metrics. But on the other hand, we are still in a bear market. So I am looking to see what might recover the fastest. Oil is in the mix, but I guess I am trying to also find “the next big thing” (bubble?).
Which is one of the things I have been trying to find information on: where do you find info on what sectors are doing the best? What sectors are recovering? I recently read that stocks that were rated as “sell” did better than those rated as “buy.” Doesn’t really make sense to me, but the article said that’s what the evidence showed.
OK, I’ll stop babbling now.
December 22nd, 2008 at 5:32 pm
@ Steve B … “”The next leg down is now imminent…as soon as volume picks up, it is straight down.”"
You think’n sooner than Jan 2009?
Won’t fund be buying end of year to dress up their gains?… oh wait, nevermind.
I’m all cash.
Sold DGP.
Sold SSS (bought $29.xx some thought bad trade) many weeks ago, went down, bought more($24.xx), sold all for $35.xx)
Staying cash til next year, don’t like gold anymore, then looking into some weeks/months long swing trades, SRS, OIL, SDS. Need to look for a job now though, promissed UI folks I would.
December 22nd, 2008 at 6:31 pm
@ Going Broke:
It could happen at anytime, but light holiday volume has a way of pumping prices. It depends also on news flow…may get some bad earnings warnings right after new year…you can start scaling in shorts now, if you are long or neutral.
December 22nd, 2008 at 6:51 pm
My sizeable number of contracts of SRS and SKF and I go to sleep every night praying that Steve Barry is right. I failed myself miserably trying to dollar average all the way down. It’s going to be a long, dark spring for me if this market stays elevated through March…