Analysis by Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings

December 29, 2008

Category: Markets, Video

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

38 Responses to “Rogers “Prepared For The Worst””

  1. leftback says:

    Everything is going to zero except commodities.. a little extreme, perhaps, but I am not that far away from being in Mr Rogers’ neighborhood. I am up 100% long today with a basket of commodity stocks. Calling for a rally from here into New Year’s, not much tax selling going on. After that I am cautious, and I must say my views on the overall market are similar to those espoused here by our friend Mr Steve Barry.

  2. DL says:

    Singapore does not impose a capital gains tax:

    http://singapore.angloinfo.com/countries/singapore/moretax.asp

    So it would seem that Rogers does not have to pay taxes to the U.S. Treasury, as long as he doesn’t repatriate any of his money.

  3. ottovbvs says:

    Rogers has as much of an agenda as all the happy talkers a year ago. The hyperbole in both cases is overdone I’d say. Not to say caution is not advisable but this strikes me as a sort of reverse Cramerism.

  4. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Good interview and commercials are edited out. Unfortunately, one has to wait until after the start of the 19th minute for Rodgers to name Bernanke and deliver a comment somewhat akin of “Take ‘em to Detroit!”

  5. wunsacon says:

    Jim Rogers might have “an agenda”. But, what is it based on? Unlike CNBC pundits, he doesn’t try to marry advertisers with viewers. I think he’s less “beholden” to the agenda of others and freer to speak his own mind.

    Selling his name for use as an index undercuts what I just said, to some extent.

    When listening to him, my bullshit meter and my self-delusion meter are both silent. [Tap tap.] To calibrate, let me switch over to CNBC to sample some Bensteinery…

  6. wunsacon says:

    HOWEVER, how long does it take to “get out of the dollar”? He’s been saying that for a few years.

  7. Texican says:

    Rogers has said this all before. It is his standard message. Like Rogers, I share the concern that the printing press will lead to the law of unintended consequences. Unlike Rogers, I don’t have billions, or a bow tie.

  8. DL says:

    My perception is that Rogers does not achieve any tangible gains from his media appearances (only intangible ones).

    One of the reasons why I tend to be interested in what he has to say.

  9. JustinTheSkeptic says:

    If ever there was I time to be in Roger’s neighborhood it is now…I belive James was the brother of Jude – true gospel.

  10. dcmachead says:

    Jim Rogers has been dead @$$ wrong on commodities so far. They’ve all collapsed. I don’t know why they trot him out, as he’s always got the same depressing message. The Chinese market has been donkey punched pretty well this year, too–that’s where you’re supposed to hide, right?

  11. leftback says:

    The way I look at it, deflation is the least of my problems. I have cash and liquid assets, and I own no over-priced and declining illiquid assets and carry no debt. So if all that happens is deflation, I have nothing to worry about.

    What I worry about is that in order to save asset prices for all the greedy and thoughtless tools who screwed up massively over the last decade, the Fed is going to engineer a reflationary devaluation that is going to end up debasing the value of my savings and increasing the cost of living for a large fraction of innocents on a fixed income. So my reflationary portfolio is a necessary hedge against the inevitable intervention in the free markets by a mechanism that cares not at all for the welfare of my constituency. This has nothing to do with politics.

  12. KJ Foehr says:

    I really think Rogers is highly overrated. If he is such a great / important investor, then why isn’t he on Forbes 400 richest list?

    Every time I hear him speak on Bloomberg or elsewhere, I always think the same thing, “this guy doesn’t sound intelligent at all”, and it seems to me he often contradicts himself. Beyond that I am skeptical of the judgement of any man who always wears a bow tie.

    Without Soros, I don’t think we would have ever heard his name.

    But that’s just my intuitive impression of him, FWIW.

  13. Bruce in Tn says:

    I am in the demachead camp..we’ve also seen videos where he admits not selling one share of China stock…another wealthy man “out-thinking” the market…

    He has lost his shirt this year…

  14. Steve Barry says:

    Reprinted with permission from myself…current reasons to stay short everything…even gold

    1) 21 day put/call at multi-year lows
    2) Short interest at ridiculous lows
    3) Blogger poll at very high bullishness
    4) Steepest rise in NYSE Bulls in over 5 years
    5) Economy still in freefall
    6) Madoff ramifications for hedge funds has not even begun
    7) Real estate still 40% overvalued per Shiller’s long-term charts
    8. Total credit per GDP 200% above a healthy level
    9) Dow would still be in its long -term inflation adjusted uptrend to trade below 4000.

  15. Bruce in Tn says:

    Lefty:

    Where do you think the Redbook and Goldman retail numbers fall tomorrow?

  16. DL says:

    dcmachead @ 4:20

    Do you really want to short agricultural commodities and stay short for the next two years?

    I’ll take the other side of that trade.

  17. leftback says:

    @KJ: Have enjoyed your insights at TBP over the last few weeks/months. I think Rogers is in the same boat as Soros. Exact timing has never been his strong point, but he has been correct over the longer term and the bigger picture. Likewise, I frequently disagree with Schiff and Faber over the details and the timing, but they have been right again and again.

  18. John from Concord says:

    China is in far, far more danger of social unrest and collapse than the US. Schiff and Rogers are cut from the same Ayn-Rand-fanboy cloth; both can be dismissed without too much mental strain. 2009 will be a rough year but the doomsayers are, as ever, engaging in wishful thinking (while holding gold, no doubt).

  19. leftback says:

    DL @ 4.44:

    Right on. I am long eating food, driving a vehicle and heating my home.
    I would rather be short the $.

    Bruce @ 4.42:

    Almost anything to do with retail is going to experience maximum suckage.
    Would not touch retail with a ten foot pole.

  20. DL says:

    Steve Barry @4:42

    I’m about 40% short (via QID and SDS). I’m wary about going 100% short, unless the SPX gets up to about 910 (which I think there’s a good chance of, in January).

  21. leftback says:

    @ Concord: I am not a gold bug, but you should review the history of gold price in yen during the Japanese lost decade, it is instructive, and potentially profitable. Likewise, a measured consideration of the likely long-term trajectory for TIPS v. the 10-year Treasury note leads to only one logical conclusion.

    @ DL: I am almost 100% long but will transition to a balanced position of: 1/3 long (commodity stocks): 1/3 cash: 1/3 short (QID) in the event we reach overhead resistance. I cannot see going all-in short given where we are.

    The idea is to trade around a core position in stocks that I actually believe in and then to trade from time to time against things that I don’t believe in (tech, retail, banks).

  22. Moss says:

    Rogers bought into the decoupling myth and never realized the impact that hedge fund liquidations would have on commodities. With all the hot money gone the real supply demand equation for commodities will be established. His best advise is to prepare for the worst which of course every central banker has been doing for the last 3 months. The number of people waiting to jump on TBT or PST is reason enough to pause.

  23. Bruce in Tn says:

    Well, there is some more evidence of bad moon rising ahead…

    The Bank of England puts out an equity withdrawal number for British homeowners each quarter…not only has the housing ATM door closed…it appears it has become welded shut…

    http://www.dailyfx.com/story/market_alerts/fundamental_alert/Bank_of_England_Housing_Equity_1230516609401.html

    Bank of England Housing Equity Withdrawal – Economic Data Preview

    and then the actual number……

    http://www.rttnews.com/CorpInfo/EconomicCalendar.aspx

  24. rww says:

    Mish has an interesting post on China at:

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

  25. JustinTheSkeptic says:

    KJ, he made Soros…

  26. Bruce in Tn says:

    But the English will probably do better than the Germans….

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=aTHionFz3aAw&refer=germany

  27. leftback says:

    @ Bruce:

    Not looking good in the UK:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7802461.stm

    Burger bet still on, SPX 905 by Friday’s close…??

  28. WowWeeTeeGee says:

    Ah, c’mon Wunsacon. Use the power of YouTube!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ny4a-oxOndo

    I like Rogers. I have been burned by his TBT call in the short term, but his overall thesis is strong.

  29. Bruce in Tn says:

    You are on….and I went to Memphis myself to see my daughter for Xmas….lazy holiday…

    Good luck in 2009, Lefty..

  30. KJ Foehr says:

    @LB,

    Thanks; it’s good to know I am making some sense to someone, sometimes. I often feel I am out in left field by myself with much of my thinking.

    @JustinTheSkeptic Says:

    “KJ, he made Soros…”

    I can’t dispute this because I have no real evidence either way, only my intuition. It’s just that Soros seems, not just a little, but a helluva lot smarter, and he IS on the Forbes list. Can you point me in the direction of some evidence of his making Soros? It would certainly change my view and my level of respect for him.

  31. KJ Foehr says:

    @LB,

    I forgot to return the complement, so I want to do so, and not just because it is the courteous thing to do. There are some standout regulars here that I always read more closely than others, and you are one of them. Thanks for your input.

  32. rhrwc says:

    I have a question. How does one “completely get out of owning dollars” while also living in the USA?

  33. Blackhalo says:

    His Daughters were born in 2003 and 2008.

    I sure hope I am fathering children when I am that age. Talk about machismo.

  34. mark says:

    Rogers thesis in a nutshell seems to be: “China (and perhaps some other asian countries) will do better on the other side of this recession/depression than the West and I have deep enough pockets to wait it out no matter how long it takes.”

    Given his age I think he ought to take to heart Keynes’ admonition regarding “the long run”.

  35. DL says:

    I’m bullish on crude oil over the next two years, but if USO can get up to $34 in the next few weeks, I’d be tempted to short it.

  36. wunsacon says:

    Thanks, WowWowTeeGee. : – )

  37. H.T. says:

    Macro-wise, Rogers is generally spot on–and as he says “he’s the world’s worst trader”–if you coupled his macro skills with even some basic trading [like taking profits when commodities were up 500% at one point AFTER starting his index] he surely would be on the Forbes Richest.

    But maybe he’d prefer to spend less time trading and more enjoying life with his bride of half his age… And who needs more than few hundred M anyways? He does what he does for, i believe, the intellectual satisfaction of out thinking the markets more than the money at this point [as do I].

    Soros, IMHO, is a blow hard pseudo-intellectual [he wants to be rememebered for "discovering" 'reflexivity'-- a convoluted way to express the very well understood idea of positive and negative feedback loops inherent in anything to do with human behavior...even shamelessly promoting it and his book to the senate panel on hedge fund regulations] His fund has been slaughtered this year as well. He had a few famous guesses/bets that he bet the bank on–with OPM. Big deal.