Comments on: Rogers “Prepared For The Worst” http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/rogers-prepared-for-the-worst/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 12:43:00 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: H.T. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/rogers-prepared-for-the-worst/comment-page-1/#comment-136405 H.T. Tue, 30 Dec 2008 17:13:21 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14221#comment-136405 Macro-wise, Rogers is generally spot on--and as he says "he's the world's worst trader"--if you coupled his macro skills with even some basic trading [like taking profits when commodities were up 500% at one point AFTER starting his index] he surely would be on the Forbes Richest. But maybe he'd prefer to spend less time trading and more enjoying life with his bride of half his age... And who needs more than few hundred M anyways? He does what he does for, i believe, the intellectual satisfaction of out thinking the markets more than the money at this point [as do I]. Soros, IMHO, is a blow hard pseudo-intellectual [he wants to be rememebered for "discovering" 'reflexivity'-- a convoluted way to express the very well understood idea of positive and negative feedback loops inherent in anything to do with human behavior...even shamelessly promoting it and his book to the senate panel on hedge fund regulations] His fund has been slaughtered this year as well. He had a few famous guesses/bets that he bet the bank on--with OPM. Big deal. Macro-wise, Rogers is generally spot on–and as he says “he’s the world’s worst trader”–if you coupled his macro skills with even some basic trading [like taking profits when commodities were up 500% at one point AFTER starting his index] he surely would be on the Forbes Richest.

But maybe he’d prefer to spend less time trading and more enjoying life with his bride of half his age… And who needs more than few hundred M anyways? He does what he does for, i believe, the intellectual satisfaction of out thinking the markets more than the money at this point [as do I].

Soros, IMHO, is a blow hard pseudo-intellectual [he wants to be rememebered for "discovering" 'reflexivity'-- a convoluted way to express the very well understood idea of positive and negative feedback loops inherent in anything to do with human behavior...even shamelessly promoting it and his book to the senate panel on hedge fund regulations] His fund has been slaughtered this year as well. He had a few famous guesses/bets that he bet the bank on–with OPM. Big deal.

]]> By: wunsacon http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/rogers-prepared-for-the-worst/comment-page-1/#comment-136332 wunsacon Tue, 30 Dec 2008 06:35:50 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14221#comment-136332 Thanks, WowWowTeeGee. : - ) Thanks, WowWowTeeGee. : – )

]]> By: DL http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/rogers-prepared-for-the-worst/comment-page-1/#comment-136327 DL Tue, 30 Dec 2008 04:31:13 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14221#comment-136327 I'm bullish on crude oil over the next two years, but if USO can get up to $34 in the next few weeks, I'd be tempted to short it. I’m bullish on crude oil over the next two years, but if USO can get up to $34 in the next few weeks, I’d be tempted to short it.

]]> By: mark http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/rogers-prepared-for-the-worst/comment-page-1/#comment-136314 mark Tue, 30 Dec 2008 02:38:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14221#comment-136314 Rogers thesis in a nutshell seems to be: "China (and perhaps some other asian countries) will do better on the other side of this recession/depression than the West and I have deep enough pockets to wait it out no matter how long it takes." Given his age I think he ought to take to heart Keynes' admonition regarding "the long run". Rogers thesis in a nutshell seems to be: “China (and perhaps some other asian countries) will do better on the other side of this recession/depression than the West and I have deep enough pockets to wait it out no matter how long it takes.”

Given his age I think he ought to take to heart Keynes’ admonition regarding “the long run”.

]]> By: Blackhalo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/rogers-prepared-for-the-worst/comment-page-1/#comment-136297 Blackhalo Mon, 29 Dec 2008 23:50:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14221#comment-136297 His Daughters were born in 2003 and 2008. I sure hope I am fathering children when I am that age. Talk about machismo. His Daughters were born in 2003 and 2008.

I sure hope I am fathering children when I am that age. Talk about machismo.

]]> By: rhrwc http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/rogers-prepared-for-the-worst/comment-page-1/#comment-136295 rhrwc Mon, 29 Dec 2008 23:35:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14221#comment-136295 I have a question. How does one "completely get out of owning dollars" while also living in the USA? I have a question. How does one “completely get out of owning dollars” while also living in the USA?

]]> By: KJ Foehr http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/rogers-prepared-for-the-worst/comment-page-1/#comment-136294 KJ Foehr Mon, 29 Dec 2008 23:04:29 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14221#comment-136294 @LB, I forgot to return the complement, so I want to do so, and not just because it is the courteous thing to do. There are some standout regulars here that I always read more closely than others, and you are one of them. Thanks for your input. @LB,

I forgot to return the complement, so I want to do so, and not just because it is the courteous thing to do. There are some standout regulars here that I always read more closely than others, and you are one of them. Thanks for your input.

]]> By: KJ Foehr http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/rogers-prepared-for-the-worst/comment-page-1/#comment-136292 KJ Foehr Mon, 29 Dec 2008 23:00:57 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14221#comment-136292 @LB, Thanks; it’s good to know I am making some sense to someone, sometimes. I often feel I am out in left field by myself with much of my thinking. @JustinTheSkeptic Says: “KJ, he made Soros…” I can’t dispute this because I have no real evidence either way, only my intuition. It’s just that Soros seems, not just a little, but a helluva lot smarter, and he IS on the Forbes list. Can you point me in the direction of some evidence of his making Soros? It would certainly change my view and my level of respect for him. @LB,

Thanks; it’s good to know I am making some sense to someone, sometimes. I often feel I am out in left field by myself with much of my thinking.

@JustinTheSkeptic Says:

“KJ, he made Soros…”

I can’t dispute this because I have no real evidence either way, only my intuition. It’s just that Soros seems, not just a little, but a helluva lot smarter, and he IS on the Forbes list. Can you point me in the direction of some evidence of his making Soros? It would certainly change my view and my level of respect for him.

]]> By: Bruce in Tn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/rogers-prepared-for-the-worst/comment-page-1/#comment-136291 Bruce in Tn Mon, 29 Dec 2008 22:48:22 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14221#comment-136291 You are on....and I went to Memphis myself to see my daughter for Xmas....lazy holiday... Good luck in 2009, Lefty.. You are on….and I went to Memphis myself to see my daughter for Xmas….lazy holiday…

Good luck in 2009, Lefty..

]]> By: WowWeeTeeGee http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/rogers-prepared-for-the-worst/comment-page-1/#comment-136290 WowWeeTeeGee Mon, 29 Dec 2008 22:47:45 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14221#comment-136290 Ah, c'mon Wunsacon. Use the power of YouTube! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ny4a-oxOndo I like Rogers. I have been burned by his TBT call in the short term, but his overall thesis is strong. Ah, c’mon Wunsacon. Use the power of YouTube!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ny4a-oxOndo

I like Rogers. I have been burned by his TBT call in the short term, but his overall thesis is strong.

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