Xmas/Santa Claus Rally
Bob Bronson sends us this historical average of the Christmas and Santa Claus rallies combined
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Bob adds: For the last two days — – first two days of the nine-trading day, year-end holiday period — the SPX is down 2.8%. This is consistent with both its underperforminghistorical average since 1949 and the currently much higher volatility environment.
If the next seven trading days continue to follow this non-random pattern, the bear market rally will outperform through Jan 5, which could also be consistent with the pending sell signal for the end of blue #4 in the second chart below. In the third chart below that blue #4 turning point is red #4. Sorry for any color confusion.
We put out our latest Growth Cycle working model in the third chart below some seven weeks ago, so perhaps we should take some trend-following comfort that Steven Hochberg of EWI is now considering it an alternative EWT wave count.
December 23rd, 2008 at 1:34 pm
If the SPX can get up to about 910 over the next few weeks, that would probably be a good time to get short.
December 23rd, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Santa had better hurry up……….
December 23rd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
I think there is at least 5% in Santa’s pocket this year. Plenty of room from here to SPX 910.
We might even see a breakout in the manner of Barry’s “Wyckoff Spring” post recently.
If we get anywhere near 1000, look out below…
December 23rd, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Distorted Oil Prices
Don’t see any other current thread relating to this, so here goes:
Article on Reuters about how the peculiarity of the WTI contracts is making oil prices much more volatile at the high and low ends and not reflecting the true state of the market:
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/12/23/nymex-oil-benchmark-again-in-question/
December 23rd, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Mike: Crude market manipulated?? What a shocker !! Only now they are trying to push prices down…..
December 23rd, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Santa Claus rally?
Maybe. Probably more like an elf this year…
December 23rd, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Hey Lefty,
Any bets on initial claims tomorrow?
December 23rd, 2008 at 5:57 pm
@ Bruce: Probably not a market mover tomorrow. Corporate America is delaying the pink slips until after the holidays. The monster layoffs are coming in January. GE among others is planning a huge cull in Connecticut.
I bet you a burger we see SPX 900 by end of trading January 2nd…
December 24th, 2008 at 8:50 am
Seems to me there is often a lot of volitility the last week of the year as people pull money out of high-flying low cap winners before the tax year ends and rotate into other stocks.
I don’t really see that happening this year – people with lots of tax losses already on the books aren’t going to want to be adding to the total and locking it in.
Doubt very much that there will be an end-of-year rally