Comments on: The Barron’s Interview: A Leading Bear Turns Bullish, Sort of

By: TrickStar

TrickStar — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 22:25:26 +0000

Unless he invests in potential takeout targets, CBST doesn’t seem like that great of a buy. Kind of expensive and it’s blockbuster’s revenues are still subject to outside competitive pressures. In general, while the market has exploded over the past few years, biotech has sucked big time. You’d have to ask him, but I’m in your boat. I guess I could see it as a fairly defensive play – but defensive in biotech, seems way too risky. Also, there is a long-term opportunity in general with drugs – right? I agree with that – thanks to demographics. but again, seems like you could get safer exposure by getting some Celgene or a big Pharma. (BTW-Pfizer looks like a great buy now because of all the cash, but their pipeline sucks, their patents are expiring soon, and management kind of sucks, so not sure they know what to do with all the dough. However, with all that money, even a doofus could probably find something that grows).

By: DavidB

DavidB — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 16:24:57 +0000

Was this you that rallied the market today BR on the power of that interview? Have you acquired that much power?

By: SINGER

SINGER — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 13:22:56 +0000

S&P 1200 or 1300…

By: Mark E Hoffer

Mark E Hoffer — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 11:21:43 +0000

TrickStar,

Thank you for the answer. It, further, illuminates what/why I was asking. Towit, is he playing for success, on the Long side?, or Failure, on the Short side?, Both?

By: TrickStar

TrickStar — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 06:10:43 +0000

I should make one clarification…CBST already has a revenue producing blockbuster, so trials aren’t the risk to its chief revenue stream.

By: Douglas Watts

Douglas Watts — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 06:10:09 +0000

Barry, are you wearing a calculator watch?

exc. interview. thx.

By: TrickStar

TrickStar — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 03:44:45 +0000

@ Mark – He’s referring to the stocks. A lot of the biotechs have small pipelines with only one or two potential blockbusters. As you’d expect, if the clinical trial data for that one drug isn’t a home run, then the stock gets hammered. CBST is a mid-cap that fits this desciption. Roche, who owns a large part of Genentech, has a more diversified portfolio, and you won’t see as much volatility from any one clinical trial report. Because of the required specialization, the investors are almost typically MDs and PhDs. The combo of somewhat isolated investment dollars and a time horizon driven by FDA approval, make these stocks non-cyclical.

By: Mortimus

Mortimus — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 02:39:07 +0000

Another Tip From Wall Street:
“Leave your stock certificates in your mother’s attic.”

http://www.dagblog.com/humor-satire/another-tip-wall-street-300

By: jmborchers

jmborchers — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 01:22:56 +0000

Not only that -200% to 200% but they also take out the volatility from that gain or add to the lose. They are all junk in my book. If you want 2:1 you should be trading deep in the money near term expiring calls or puts.

By: atazur

atazur — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 01:15:25 +0000

Barry,
1 important clarification, which I’m not sure if it’s a mistake or not.

You said: “Ultra S&P ProShares [ticker: SSO] — for every dollar the Standard & Poor’s 500 moves, it moves two dollars”.
It’s important to clarify that ProShares don’t track the move in point, but tracks 200%, -200% or -100% of index performance on a *daily basis*. So it’s not that accurate to say for every dollar it moves 2.

Maybe that’s what you meant, but since those vehicles are relatively new, I think the uninformed should read more here:
http://www.proshares.com/funds/performance/UnderstandingProSharesLongTermPerformance.html