The Clapper
By Barry Ritholtz - December 11th, 2008, 7:40PM
Let’s you turn Capitalism On or Off when you need to!
Click for animation
by Mark Fiore
Macro Notes
Consumer Credit continues downward trendPeter Boockvar
Consumer Credit outstanding fell $14.8b in Sept seasonally adjusted, almost $5b more than expected and marks the 11th month in the past 12 of declines. At $2.456T outstanding, it is 4.9% below the record high in July '08. After a flat reading in Aug, (didn't fall b/c of the CARS program), non revolving debt outstanding fell by $4.9B. Revolving (mostly credit cards) balances outstanding fell by $9.9B. To fully put into perspective today's data, look at the current level of consumer credit (doesn't include mortgages, the biggest chunk of consumer credit) relative to GDP. As of Q3, it totaled 17.2%...
read more »
The Big Picture is proudly powered by
WordPress
Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS).
Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS).
December 10th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Frickin’ hysterical
December 10th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
Funniest thing I’ve seen today…
So why am I crying???
December 10th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Thx Barry,
LOL… I need that… signed up for UI today, was told if needed, I can extended, for up to a year.
December 10th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Poor, low paid Chinese worker who is supporting all of US. You should be ashamed Wall Street. Main Street, you can start driving your Hummers again!
December 10th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
This is good stuff. Glad to see at least someone us still have a good sense of humor. When in doubt, laugh at your own misery!
December 10th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
Best Fiore ever. I definitely needed that
December 10th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
Ouch! Why is the best satire so damned painful (it even hurts to laugh)?
December 10th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
From funny to serious:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
December 11th, 2008 at 7:38 am
danm,
Thanks for the link.
I’ve only had time to view the presentation on peak oil, and I was already familiar with much of what he has to say, but his presentation–graphics, metaphors and explanations–are exceptional.
December 11th, 2008 at 8:14 am
DownSouth:
It’s when he superposes all the variables that the picture gets really clear.
Our system is based on growth. This growth has been exponential because of oil.
Future growth (same % = larger number of dollars = larger number of joules) will need to be generated with ever harder extraction due to much lower grades.
With our infrastructure falling apart, our governments will surely be replacing what should not be replaced wasting even more energy, in the name of job creation. Our current infrastructure is not sustainable. It was put in place with materials that came form high grade mines and fast flowing wells.
Fore me it is clear that in the near future a growing % of our population will be working toward resource extraction, energy replacement and agriculture. And manpower might just come back in vogue when some machines become unaffordable.
What people have to understand is that it might not even be a dollar issue that will destroy our growth based system. It might just be the natural laws of thermodynamics. When getting your energy burns more joules than the joules you are getting, you’ve got a ceiling.
And in my mind, this will happen in the exact same fashion as his example of the stadium filling up with water. You’ve got 45 minutes to get out, but up to the first 40 minutes you would have no clue about what was about to hit you.
So Barry, when you are harping about regulation and looking for all the scapegoats, I can’t help but think that you are wasting energy.
I think our growth system is like a moving train. Not one person can be blamed for it. The only way to stop it is to put thousands of people in front of it. Of course that means a few casualties but in our system where the individual is king, casualties are unacceptable. So we are doomed. We can only wait for the shock to change things. Period. End of story.
In any a population you have a normal distribution of personalities. Each one takes its place according to what is happening around them. What is happening today is the normal evolution of mankind. Every species reaches a max until its population dwindles and restabilizes… the same is going to happen to us. The difference between us and other animals is we think we can actually control and manage ourselves.
What we have done is quite impressive but very unstable.
December 11th, 2008 at 8:25 am
Maybe we can find a new source of energy but I’m not sure we’ll find it in time… When I look at how fast this whole monetary mess is unfolding, I just get the feeling that we are going to waste all our leftover energy propping up a dying energy-centric system instead of looking for more sustainable solutions.
December 11th, 2008 at 9:47 am
brilliant
December 11th, 2008 at 10:32 am
danm,
Kevin Phillips has spent decades studying the rise and fall of great empires, and one (though not the only) of the theories he presents is that they undergo a life cycle not unlike that of the human body. The U.S. now finds itself in old age–the “financialization” of our society being one of the symptoms exhibited by all great past empires in their twilight years –and there is really nothing, just as there is nothing that can be done about old age, that can be done about it.
Thus the U.S. will not be able to rise to meet the many challenges it now faces. Some other younger, less ossified society will emerge and the United States, or at least the United States we know today, will cease to exisit.
Another theory is that the United States, beginning with the Gilded Age of 1870-90 and up until the 1920s, has been here before. That was an era not unlike our own when corporations, banking and finance coopted the government and awarded itself all sorts of largesse and favorable legislation, much to the detriment of the larger society.
I choose to believe in this later interpretation, and that is why I am not so quick to dismiss Barry’s efforts as implicit in your statement: “So Barry, when you are harping about regulation and looking for all the scapegoats, I can’t help but think that you are wasting energy.”
I would prefer to go down fighting, even though I would be the first to acknowledge that I may very well go down.
December 11th, 2008 at 11:13 am
DownSouth:
As any human being I am full of contradictions and many of my actions totally deny my logic. As a semi-control freak, I will do everything in my power to plan and control situations, when I know full well that most of my efforts are futile. I do exactly what Barry does but it does not mean that my energy is well used.
Human beings waste energy, that’s what we’re good at! It does not help that our bodies are incredibly inefficient machines when it comes to energy consumption and production.
I remember reading a green article that listed all the ways we could cut our energy use. One of them was exercising…. when you exercise you burn calories that don’t produce anything useful. Also, it means that you breathe and eat more (more flatulence) and you pollute the air.
That’s when I realized that the most efficient way for all of us to protect the environment would be to commit suicide and just let our bodies go back to the earth! As if any religion would condone this! (LOL)
December 11th, 2008 at 11:50 am
I have the New and Improved Clapper. I clap one and the market goes up. I clap twice and the market goes down. I am making a killing with it. Yep, I am to blame for the zig zagging.
December 11th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Japanese economy also going velly quickry in the clapper…
December 11th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
Very clever and very true, unfortunately.
December 11th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
In the end we all get the clap! lol
December 11th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
A timeless cartoon that needs to be rolled out every evening, I think.
December 11th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Cramer is going postal today.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=960246441
December 11th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
I’m the odd man out here as I didn’t find this humorous at all.
December 11th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
karen,
while I appreciate the execution, I’m w/ you, in reality, it’s a sick joke.
Mannwich,
my good man, btw, from nearby thread:
what’s up? can’t you answer my Q:? “I’m no fan of the Fed either but I agree with Barry that you’re “tilting at windmills” in thinking they will ever be abolished, especially as long as other countries have Central Banks. ”
what does “other countries having CBs” have to do w/ anything?
you 2 make CBs sound like Jack’s Stalk–Magic, how, exactly does that work? what’s the unilateral benefit Country A would have, over Country B, merely by having a CB?”
yet, you sally-forth, trying to rope positions, that I’ve never proclaimed, onto me?
bud, you’re better than that, no?
please do, answer away..rather than drafting BR
December 11th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
@Hoffer: Was taking some time to think about your question.
Look, I’m not entirely sure that you’re wrong here (and you make some good points). I just don’t think that in the real world, we will be abolishing the Fed any time soon, especially if other first world countries keep their Central Banks intact. Also, I think there’s a valid argument to made that with no Central Bank our currency might not remain stable (see the Panic of 1907, although one could argue it’s already teetering now).
I’m hardly “pro-Fed”, so let’s move on here.
December 11th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
Isn’t it ironic that China (Nominally communist) is now the most capitalist economy on earth. In response to the slowdown in exports and reduce production capacity, factories close.
December 11th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Don’t look now but the futures don’t look so bright tomorrow on the heels of the announcement there’s no deal on the bailout.. Calling the PPT!! PPT!
December 11th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
The Big 3 automakers are using the wrong tact. All they have to do is tell Paulson that AIG underwrote the CDSs on their bonds.
December 11th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Mannwich,
seriously, regurgitating, someone else’s answer, without understanding it, is no way to go through life..
you go w/ : “especially if other first world countries keep their Central Banks intact.”
fine, I’m asking, as I did above, why would that be? who cares if Country B has a CB? what good does it do them?
If BR wants to answer, that’s fine, but you took up the position, drafting Him. So I’m asking you..
December 11th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
Looks like the futures market has no sense of humor: Dow in the red at -316
December 12th, 2008 at 12:03 am
Okay I was just at the mall in the menswear department of a major chain, with HUNDREDS of suits/shirts/ties on sale and the store was absolutely empty. The parking lot outside was at maybe 30-40% capacity.
This was on the Thursday EXACTLY two weeks before Christmas! Last year at this time you could hardly get an associate’s attention for more than a half a minute to help you pick out a tie. Now they nearly outnumber the customers.
Previously this recession thing was just a distant curiosity but I think i’m beginning to feel the earth shake a little….this is really scary.
It’s all well and good to poke fun at part time capitalists but right now we NEED capitalists and we need to turn this ship around or we are all totally doomed. I never thought I’d be cheering for a bailout but the last thing I would want any family to go through this Christmas is the nightmare of losing their home – so I’m all for a bailout that helps families stay warm and safe this christmas
December 12th, 2008 at 12:29 am
“…or we are all totally doomed”
Ah, the voice of reason and equanimity.
Geesh!
We have nothing to fear but fear itself.
December 12th, 2008 at 12:49 am
darklight:
It’s not just that. Three million jobs could eventually be lost if the auto bailout doesn’t happen. Can the economy handle that kind of job loss in the next 6 months? The Republicans want to break the UAW. That is all they care about. They’ll hold the country hostage to do it.
December 12th, 2008 at 12:57 am
as I noted 2 weeks ago to stay short until this Friday. We are witnessing a mini-panic of sorts right on the much anticipated cycle turn date so the selling should not be any surprise here. the action in $/JPY shows this clearly. As a result, I have covered all SP from September 3rd in the 830s tonight and will be reversing to turbo long March SP by 11:30EST when the climax of the turn begins. Now for the fun part, any traders with a half decent set of balls should stay max long right up until 7/14/09. I highly doubt few can do it but that’s what I plan on.
“Seasoned traders make as few trades as possible to catch the majority of the wave while novices constantly gamble day in and day out while failing miserably in the long run.”
December 12th, 2008 at 1:26 am
Interesting Nikkei move down 5%, mainly Japanese automakers on the US automekers bailout failure news. Am I missing something or shouldn’t this be positive for Honda and Toyota, who know how to make cars? Nothing seems to make much sense anymore. Until it does, then all hell breaks loose.
December 12th, 2008 at 1:51 am
@danm and downsouth – of course our system is based on growth. hello. it’s not because of oil, duh. it’s because of human beings making the most of what they have. read, or re-read guns, germs and steel and this won’t be such a mystery. (t0 the people of papua new guinea (who aren’t listening) , don’t bother paying attention) , ignore us. quoting thomas hobbes is fine and dandy at the coffeehaus of life’s misanthrophic folk (or second year philosophy majors), but by the time you guys are done finishing your next “work” there will be x-fold more millionaires who are making money in the financial markets that will be asking you, “if you’re so smart, why ain’t you rich?”
December 12th, 2008 at 1:55 am
jakester – i think i like what your saying, but don’t get it completely.
December 12th, 2008 at 5:57 am
What is slowly sinking in to most Americans is the apalling double standard at play, for the Clapper only works for bankers and financiers.
For everybody else, it’s going to be a hard candy Christmas.
The death grip that bankers and financiers have on government must be broken.
December 12th, 2008 at 8:39 am
philipat Says: ‘Isn’t it ironic that China (Nominally communist) is now the most capitalist economy on earth. In response to the slowdown in exports and reduce production capacity, factories close.’
imo they just needed to catch technology or fall forever behind the eightball
December 12th, 2008 at 8:49 am
but by the time you guys are done finishing your next “work” there will be x-fold more millionaires who are making money in the financial markets that will be asking you, “if you’re so smart, why ain’t you rich?”
—-
In any environment, good or bad, there will always be people making a bundle. I’m intelligent enough to know I won’t be one of them because it is not important to me. Yes, if a few billions fell on my lap, I would sure keep them but my goal in life is not outdoing Bill Gates net worth. I’m an analyst and I’m always going to be an analyst. Intelligence is not the most important variable for building wealth. I’d say that above everything else, industry, perseverance and networking are way more important than intelligence. Wake up and smell the coffee, you need to understand what makes different people tick. And it’s not all about money.
And I can’t tell you how many people told me exactly that:” if you’re so smart…”. And you know what? I have way more than them today!
And about growth… yes it was about gorwth well before the first barrel of oil,l was found. Oil made this growth exponential. Not sure it can last. Watch all of this befroe you start arguing:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
December 12th, 2008 at 10:18 am
@Hoffer: If I agree with someone, I will say so. If I don’t, I will say so. Your insufferable, “I know all” attitude is tiresome. Please let it go and move on. We can agree to disagree.
December 12th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Mannwich,
Actually, I don’t know (Why Country A would have a unilateral advantage over Country B, by mere dint of having a CB..). It’s why I am asking you, the one that was, further, espousing it.
to recap:
seriously, regurgitating, someone else’s answer, without understanding it, is no way to go through life..
you go w/ : “especially if other first world countries keep their Central Banks intact.”
fine, I’m asking, as I did above, why would that be? who cares if Country B has a CB? what good does it do them?
Remember, what they’ll tell you at the ‘Bank’: to avoid NSF charges, don’t write’m iffin ya can’t ****’m.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/dint
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/espouse
as an aside, I was looking up ‘Insufferable’, and found this:
Mannwich Says:
December 12th, 2008 at 10:34 am
But we already know from our libertarian friends that if these virtuous geniuses were only allowed to operate in a true “free market” environment without the meddling of those pesky government regulators, they, and by extension, we, would all be sitting in a big circle, holding hands, playing hacky-sack, and singing “Kumbaya” together. It would be peace, love and frisbees (add in a pony too) for all.
The End.
and, really, you’re slinging ‘know it all’ at me? That’s Rich, bro..
December 12th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
Grego 658 says: “imo they just needed to catch technology or fall forever behind the eightball”
Never underestimate the Chinese. They have all technologies courtesy of global Companies manufacturing there. They will copy this and move forward. You don’t need to teach the Chinese how to do business.
Remember Japan, circa 1950? You underestimate China’s potential at your peril.