Comments on: When Wall Street died… http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/when-wall-street-died/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 16:48:23 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: usphoenix http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/when-wall-street-died/comment-page-1/#comment-136322 usphoenix Tue, 30 Dec 2008 03:36:05 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14185#comment-136322 @Groty Agree totally. But boards have always been like an honorarium networking, credibility who do you know and how much money do you have type thing. Here's an irony for you. The first thing a corporation does is buy D&O insurance, from the likes of AIG. And what it means is, regardless of what happens, if someone decides the board was derelict, AIG pays. So board members are kind of like gambling for free. Enjoying the status and perks. If there is a single moral hazard to go after, perhaps this is the one. At least scare them a little. @Groty Agree totally. But boards have always been like an honorarium networking, credibility who do you know and how much money do you have type thing.

Here’s an irony for you. The first thing a corporation does is buy D&O insurance, from the likes of AIG.

And what it means is, regardless of what happens, if someone decides the board was derelict, AIG pays. So board members are kind of like gambling for free. Enjoying the status and perks.

If there is a single moral hazard to go after, perhaps this is the one. At least scare them a little.

]]> By: ButtoMcFarty http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/when-wall-street-died/comment-page-1/#comment-136232 ButtoMcFarty Mon, 29 Dec 2008 18:47:34 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14185#comment-136232 As a former resident, married to a native New Yorican, I'm very interested in NYC property values. The WS debacle should be a major pressure but I don't see any major effects yet. Anyone think NYC RE market will ever get back to early 90's levels?? As a former resident, married to a native New Yorican, I’m very interested in NYC property values.

The WS debacle should be a major pressure but I don’t see any major effects yet.

Anyone think NYC RE market will ever get back to early 90′s levels??

]]> By: DL http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/when-wall-street-died/comment-page-1/#comment-136220 DL Mon, 29 Dec 2008 17:59:42 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14185#comment-136220 leftback @ 12:42 “Structural problems in the US economy will take years to correct” Yes, just in time for the baby boomers to retire in large numbers. leftback @ 12:42

“Structural problems in the US economy will take years to correct”

Yes, just in time for the baby boomers to retire in large numbers.

]]> By: DL http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/when-wall-street-died/comment-page-1/#comment-136218 DL Mon, 29 Dec 2008 17:56:40 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14185#comment-136218 I would venture to guess that the vast majority of those who wanted to bail out Lehman were also opposed to giving any money at all to the autos. Socialism for failed Wall Street ventures, free enterprise for union workers in Detroit. I would venture to guess that the vast majority of those who wanted to bail out Lehman were also opposed to giving any money at all to the autos.

Socialism for failed Wall Street ventures, free enterprise for union workers in Detroit.

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/when-wall-street-died/comment-page-1/#comment-136212 leftback Mon, 29 Dec 2008 17:42:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14185#comment-136212 @Wally: Exactly right - this is the price you pay for currency devaluation and years of misallocation of capital. See UK, the 1970s. Structural problems in the US economy will take years to correct. @Wally:

Exactly right – this is the price you pay for currency devaluation and years of misallocation of capital.
See UK, the 1970s. Structural problems in the US economy will take years to correct.

]]> By: wally http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/when-wall-street-died/comment-page-1/#comment-136210 wally Mon, 29 Dec 2008 17:26:23 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14185#comment-136210 leftback, You say both: flat to positive GDP and equities, and also inflation. Depending on the degree of inflation, that could actually mean declining real GDP and equities. leftback,
You say both: flat to positive GDP and equities, and also inflation.

Depending on the degree of inflation, that could actually mean declining real GDP and equities.

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/when-wall-street-died/comment-page-1/#comment-136206 leftback Mon, 29 Dec 2008 16:58:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14185#comment-136206 The first half of 2009 is going to be bloody awful. The second half will be bad, but in a different way. Q1, 2009 will be negative for GDP, equities and employment, flat for Treasuries and commodities. Q2-4, 2009 will be flat to positive for GDP, equities, negative for $ and Treasuries, and positive for commodities. We will ring in the New Year in 2010 with anemic growth, continued weak employment and rising inflation. The first half of 2009 is going to be bloody awful. The second half will be bad, but in a different way.

Q1, 2009 will be negative for GDP, equities and employment, flat for Treasuries and commodities.
Q2-4, 2009 will be flat to positive for GDP, equities, negative for $ and Treasuries, and positive for commodities.

We will ring in the New Year in 2010 with anemic growth, continued weak employment and rising inflation.

]]> By: wally http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/when-wall-street-died/comment-page-1/#comment-136205 wally Mon, 29 Dec 2008 16:56:21 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14185#comment-136205 Assessment of responsibility is a good first step. Filing criminal charges would be a good second step. Actually holding people to their responsibilities and removing them from their positions when they fail is something that is necessary for a system to function. Until we have taken those steps we won't have a working system again. To the extent that he has purposely interfered with that process, Hank Paulson has done great damage to the future of this country and Ben Bernanke has enabled him. Assessment of responsibility is a good first step. Filing criminal charges would be a good second step.

Actually holding people to their responsibilities and removing them from their positions when they fail is something that is necessary for a system to function. Until we have taken those steps we won’t have a working system again. To the extent that he has purposely interfered with that process, Hank Paulson has done great damage to the future of this country and Ben Bernanke has enabled him.

]]> By: Bruce N Tennessee http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/when-wall-street-died/comment-page-1/#comment-136200 Bruce N Tennessee Mon, 29 Dec 2008 16:45:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14185#comment-136200 Well, a couple of things caught my attention this morning. First the speculation about the return vs. demise of tech in 2009. Rational sounding debate on both sides...the numbers, though, show something of interest... http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20081219/163115/?SS=imgview_e&FD=1222307169&ad_q N American Semiconductor Equipment Industry: November Book-to-Bill Ratio Even though the B to B is now 1, sales have been steadily declining...and that spells harder times next year than this... Also, even the cheerleaders are anticipating less than fun times ahead...this is not new news to those who frequent here, but interesting that the Leisman faction is apparently on the decline... http://www.cnbc.com/id/28416981 Pros Say: Employment Collapse is Coming I agree with Crumudgeon's thoughts above..we started with massive debt and are creating Zombie Banks and Zombie Employees, although the employees are about to get a lump of coal in their stockings... Well, a couple of things caught my attention this morning.

First the speculation about the return vs. demise of tech in 2009. Rational sounding debate on both sides…the numbers, though, show something of interest…

http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20081219/163115/?SS=imgview_e&FD=1222307169&ad_q

N American Semiconductor Equipment Industry: November Book-to-Bill Ratio

Even though the B to B is now 1, sales have been steadily declining…and that spells harder times next year than this…

Also, even the cheerleaders are anticipating less than fun times ahead…this is not new news to those who frequent here, but interesting that the Leisman faction is apparently on the decline…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28416981

Pros Say: Employment Collapse is Coming

I agree with Crumudgeon’s thoughts above..we started with massive debt and are creating Zombie Banks and Zombie Employees, although the employees are about to get a lump of coal in their stockings…

]]> By: donna http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/when-wall-street-died/comment-page-1/#comment-136195 donna Mon, 29 Dec 2008 16:35:38 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14185#comment-136195 I haven't trusted any bank or major finance institution for 25 years, doing all my banking with credit unions. 5 years of pain dealing with JP Morgan Chase to settle my mom's very simple estate reminded me how horrible and uncaring they really are. I won't need any further reminders. I haven’t trusted any bank or major finance institution for 25 years, doing all my banking with credit unions. 5 years of pain dealing with JP Morgan Chase to settle my mom’s very simple estate reminded me how horrible and uncaring they really are. I won’t need any further reminders.

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