4 Crashes: 1929, 1962, 1987 and 2008:
By Barry Ritholtz - January 22nd, 2009, 11:30AM
Nice comparison via Bob Bronson of 1929, 1962, 1987, and 2008:
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Macro Notes
Consumer Credit continues downward trendPeter Boockvar
Consumer Credit outstanding fell $14.8b in Sept seasonally adjusted, almost $5b more than expected and marks the 11th month in the past 12 of declines. At $2.456T outstanding, it is 4.9% below the record high in July '08. After a flat reading in Aug, (didn't fall b/c of the CARS program), non revolving debt outstanding fell by $4.9B. Revolving (mostly credit cards) balances outstanding fell by $9.9B. To fully put into perspective today's data, look at the current level of consumer credit (doesn't include mortgages, the biggest chunk of consumer credit) relative to GDP. As of Q3, it totaled 17.2%...
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January 19th, 2009 at 11:12 am
What’s up with the British banking system today??? Did I hear right (CNBC) several British financial stocks have plunged 70% today?
January 19th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Appears so. News of monumental losses started dribbling out yesterday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akejqgjre9D4&refer=worldwide
Looks like the RBS did “make it happen.”
January 19th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
IOW, this barrel to which i’m affixing suspenders has a new bottom
January 19th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
This is terrible real-time reporting.
You don’t know what the bottom is until well after you hit it, so the scale on the current chart is unknown. Or, is Bob claiming to know what happens?
Perhaps he wouldn’t mind lending out his time machine?
Chuck
January 22nd, 2009 at 4:37 pm
The interesting thing about these charts is the similarity of the pattern. Patterns being all important to traders and economists eh?