And that we should buy it at 10 and sell it at 30?

Even if constant is right and aggregate world GDP growth remains sufficiently in positive territoty to keep the ponzi going, I’m thinking we’d need a one world currency since otherwise we’d have a situation where some zones/currencies (BRIC, 3rd world) can sustain the ponzi and some can’t ($,Eur,yen). How the hell would that work I wonder.

You seem to make the assumption that western growth will remain steady while emerging market growth powers ahead. If the emerging economies are going to ‘emerge’, they shall do so at our expense via labour arbitrage resulting in reduced overall growth from the pattern of the last 20 years. Many of our jobs will continue to go to BRIC (and our savings – since only in BRIC will they get a good return), the new BRIC workers migrating from the rural areas will be supported by food and material from the least developed nations – witness chinese investment and creeping political influence in africa.

So all things being equal, I see at best an anemic and patchy worldwide growth, or more likely a sustained contraction up to the pop growth inflexion point between 2025 and 2050, either of which will result in a series of rolling recssions that will destroy the remnants of the current financial infrastructure, the likely outcome of which will be a sudden socialist lurch in western economies, the beginnings of which we can see already. Afterwards, when the world population as a whole begins declining, it’s anybody’s guess as to what will happen.

From the link I gave above:

” Some demographers now predict that not only will there be a major shift in the balance between young and old that will affect the pattern of savings and investment, but also that fast population growth that started in the eighteenth century will come to a halt sometime in the twenty-first century.

This, in effect, will signal the end of the Great Age and will sound the death knell of three hundred years of economic theories that have been predicated on population growth as a constant in society.”

Slowing/declining population growth is the white elephant in the room here – people (especially economists) talk about it alot but then generally ignore the implications, since they have no idea what to do about it and no experience of anything else.

How is it that Martin Feldstein continues to appear on TV as an expert offering his thoughts about the economy when he has been on the board of directors of AIG since 1988?

Exactly, and I thought I heard today he was one of a handful of economists that congress will be looking for some direction from.

That said, this post is lame, you could probably find just as many stupid quotes in say, 82, from bears. Nobody gets them all right.

That means more demand for goods and services, and more vibrant economies, leading to stronger equities markets. The larger picture is still up. This is not to say that we’re not gonna take a drubbin’ here for several years, as the old dying companies try hard to die (even if the Fed and Treasury say that no sparrow will fall on their watch). But at some point, the long term upward trend of global equities will resume.

Way to go, Joe.

I would only agree partially because the overlying “value” is based on monetary growth (unless you’re talking inflation adjusted). You can have nominal growth with even zero or negative real growth.

Any way you look at it, unless there is real growth, it’s a Ponzi. The whole world is.

Predictable pullback today in the bear market rally. I was net short overnight and sold my FAZ at the close.
I reloaded with some favorites; COP VLO GDX SLW and AA. Holding some QID overnight, but expecting a rally off 905 tomorrow – or at worst a revisit to 890.

I respect Joe B as a person who stands his ground and clearly speaks his mind. (No mumble mush BS from Joe.) He is one of few that will not back-down to the pressure of others playing to a hidden agenda or particular view.

I respect Joe and I respect his words of advice. That doesn’t mean he is always right. I think Joe is an honest man with principles. That’s more than I can say for 95% of the others on this list.