Comments on: December 15-16, 2008 FOMC Minutes

By: schoolsout

schoolsout — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 15:13:04 +0000

Pat G. Says:

January 6th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
No inflation?? Checking for new vehicle incentives at Honda shows that yesterday’s 1.9% to 3.9% financing offer has morphed to today’s 7% offer. To me, it tends to illustrate where they think the cost of money is heading.

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I sell commercial trucks and the mfg finance company went from 2.9 for 36mo jumped to 7.10%

By: jc

jc — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:08:19 +0000

NYS unemployment system buckles under surge in applications. Doble digit unemployment here we come.Thanks for the Depression George, you’ve done to the country the same as you did to your businesses!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/nyregion/07unemployment.html?th&emc=th

By: Andy Tabbo

Andy Tabbo — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 01:54:00 +0000

Seems like a slow night for commentary …perhaps another sign of complacency setting it. Barry, how are the daily page views going? Seen any huge drops since the market started rallying? Any contra-indicators showing up?

It’s funny how the MSM talks about the VIX falling being a good sign for the market. As someone looking for another big leg down in 2009, I see the falling VIX as a confirmation of that bearish view. The market will not be able to take that next leg down UNTIL we see a lower VIX. All the schmucks who bot the 60-90% Vol on the Puts need to get wiped out first.

Always remember that the “market follows the path of greatest pain for all.” Accordingly, anyone who “took out protection” and spent a ton of money on puts must lose all that money. And then, when the masses decide that “things look calmer, we bottomed in November,” BAMMO! That’s when we will descend in that final fifth wave lower.

I’m very bullish the S&P500 at 600 later this summer.

- AT

By: Pat G.

Pat G. — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 23:55:01 +0000

No inflation?? Checking for new vehicle incentives at Honda shows that yesterday’s 1.9% to 3.9% financing offer has morphed to today’s 7% offer. To me, it tends to illustrate where they think the cost of money is heading.

By: DL

DL — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:28:12 +0000

wunsacon @ 5:18

Right.

Do we really expect Bernanke to say publicly that the banks are insolvent, that an “inflation holocaust” is coming, that the USD is going down the toilet, or that the national debt is going to double…?

I think not.

By: rww

rww — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:27:20 +0000

Well said, Zell

By: wunsacon

wunsacon — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:18:59 +0000

Or for political reasons. (Personal politics or public politics.) Or another reason. But, I do suspect they know more than they let on. I doubt they’re clueless.

By: wunsacon

wunsacon — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:15:19 +0000

I doubt central bankers are that stupid. Indeed, I suspect they stay mum for fear of inducing a self-fulfilling prophesy.

By: zell

zell — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:13:27 +0000

Relentless rally- I’ll take as sarcasm. Less enthusiasm- how many ways can you spell disaster? We all knew it was coming and now it is here. It still sort of boggles the mind.
The news is unremittingly terrible and will be so for a long time- anywhere from 10 to 20 years. We are drowning in debt – a vortex with enormous energy. Don’t pay any attentin to the markets- they reflect a daydream.

By: DL

DL — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 21:55:50 +0000

Marcus Aurelius @ 3:58

“That they are highly compensated for their ‘expertise’ borders on criminality”.

I don’t think that their salaries are particularly high, at least while on the government payroll. However, they can get high paying jobs at investment banks if they want to. Bernanke himself will probably get a multi-million dollar book advance (like Greenspan did).

Besides, the cardinal rule of employment applies: it’s not what you know, it’s who you know.