Comments on: How Long til Madoff Losses Are Recovered ? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/how-long-til-madoff-losses-are-recovered/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 12:35:08 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: How the Common Man Sees It http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/how-long-til-madoff-losses-are-recovered/comment-page-1/#comment-138135 How the Common Man Sees It Fri, 09 Jan 2009 10:56:19 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15416#comment-138135 <i>LOL, my recovery to losses went past 30 years - is that bad? :)</i> not if you're 12 <i>He could have an accident, an apparent drug OD, heart-attack or something; but, I look for him to be rubbed out long before any trial or congressional hearings.</i> Probably a heart attack. That's what happened to Milosevic when he threatened to yap. They may not want go that way though. This case may require poetic retribution. Some old ruined guy pulling out a gun and shooting him in a murder suicide to serve as a warning for the future LOL, my recovery to losses went past 30 years – is that bad? :)

not if you’re 12

He could have an accident, an apparent drug OD, heart-attack or something; but, I look for him to be rubbed out long before any trial or congressional hearings.

Probably a heart attack. That’s what happened to Milosevic when he threatened to yap.

They may not want go that way though. This case may require poetic retribution. Some old ruined guy pulling out a gun and shooting him in a murder suicide to serve as a warning for the future

]]> By: wunsacon http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/how-long-til-madoff-losses-are-recovered/comment-page-1/#comment-138122 wunsacon Fri, 09 Jan 2009 02:46:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15416#comment-138122 VoiceFromTheWilderness, >> ... who exactly is the NY Times aiming this at?... I don’t get the sense that people have a real sense of how this plays in peoria. Those of us that don’t worry about how long it’s going to take to get ‘our’ 10 million back, since we didn’t have it in the first place, I think there's a misunderstanding here. (And if not yours, then mine.) Click on the link to the NYT. It brings you to a Flash plugin applet that lets you calculate ANY "comeback". To create the image for this thread, Barry set the parameters to model the comeback for Madoff investors and then took a screenshot. VoiceFromTheWilderness,

>> … who exactly is the NY Times aiming this at?… I don’t get the sense that people have a real sense of how this plays in peoria. Those of us that don’t worry about how long it’s going to take to get ‘our’ 10 million back, since we didn’t have it in the first place,

I think there’s a misunderstanding here. (And if not yours, then mine.)

Click on the link to the NYT. It brings you to a Flash plugin applet that lets you calculate ANY “comeback”. To create the image for this thread, Barry set the parameters to model the comeback for Madoff investors and then took a screenshot.

]]> By: BG http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/how-long-til-madoff-losses-are-recovered/comment-page-1/#comment-138113 BG Fri, 09 Jan 2009 01:14:06 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15416#comment-138113 In regard to Madoff, I suspect he is in serious danger for his life. I would not be surprised if there wasn't a lot of cash that was run thru Madoff's operation in order to clean it. MOB money, drug money and who knows what else. There will literally be no telling and I think Madoff will pay for it with his life. Madoff should insist that he be placed in a secure place of confinement immediately if he wants to live. His days are probably in very short supply. The link between he and the SEC will also die with him. I don't think we will learn very much more from Madoff because he will not be around very much longer. He could have an accident, an apparent drug OD, heart-attack or something; but, I look for him to be rubbed out long before any trial or congressional hearings. He will not get the opportunity to divulge any associations for hopes of leniency. In regard to Madoff, I suspect he is in serious danger for his life. I would not be surprised if there wasn’t a lot of cash that was run thru Madoff’s operation in order to clean it. MOB money, drug money and who knows what else. There will literally be no telling and I think Madoff will pay for it with his life. Madoff should insist that he be placed in a secure place of confinement immediately if he wants to live.

His days are probably in very short supply. The link between he and the SEC will also die with him. I don’t think we will learn very much more from Madoff because he will not be around very much longer.

He could have an accident, an apparent drug OD, heart-attack or something; but, I look for him to be rubbed out long before any trial or congressional hearings. He will not get the opportunity to divulge any associations for hopes of leniency.

]]> By: skardin http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/how-long-til-madoff-losses-are-recovered/comment-page-1/#comment-138108 skardin Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:21:55 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15416#comment-138108 Pretty sad this guy becomes the escape goat this current financial mess. I find it ironic how we like to talk about ponzi scheme for "merely" 50 billion when wall street lost easily one trillion in value with credit-swap and housing mess... and I'm still waiting for someone to get jail time for that one. Pretty sad this guy becomes the escape goat this current financial mess. I find it ironic how we like to talk about ponzi scheme for “merely” 50 billion when wall street lost easily one trillion in value with credit-swap and housing mess… and I’m still waiting for someone to get jail time for that one.

]]> By: Lugnut http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/how-long-til-madoff-losses-are-recovered/comment-page-1/#comment-138093 Lugnut Thu, 08 Jan 2009 22:24:46 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15416#comment-138093 Madoff is the ultimate example of the Israeli "don't be a freier" mentality. Cue the hundreds of millions in checks made out to his family that din't get processed before his arrest and the expensive watches and bracelets he tired to mail out. We're all suckers in his eyes, and he laughs at all of his while he's out on bail. Bilking the goyim? No problemo, but nailing his own in the wallet is bad juju Bernie. Madoff is the ultimate example of the Israeli “don’t be a freier” mentality. Cue the hundreds of millions in checks made out to his family that din’t get processed before his arrest and the expensive watches and bracelets he tired to mail out. We’re all suckers in his eyes, and he laughs at all of his while he’s out on bail. Bilking the goyim? No problemo, but nailing his own in the wallet is bad juju Bernie.

]]> By: AGG http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/how-long-til-madoff-losses-are-recovered/comment-page-1/#comment-138089 AGG Thu, 08 Jan 2009 21:39:14 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15416#comment-138089 On the amount of "fiction" in paper profits: The greater the limit of how much you can withdraw and the time delay in withdrawing it, the greater the fiction. Read the fine print. On the amount of “fiction” in paper profits:
The greater the limit of how much you can withdraw and the time delay in withdrawing it, the greater the fiction.
Read the fine print.

]]> By: AGG http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/how-long-til-madoff-losses-are-recovered/comment-page-1/#comment-138085 AGG Thu, 08 Jan 2009 21:29:08 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15416#comment-138085 Ken, Great post! However, I'd like to add this: "In fact, I think I will do so right now. I will ask a co-worker for a dollar to “invest”, and tell them ten minutes later that their investment is now worth a trillion dollars. I’ll even print up a fancy statement showing this; I can use Excel and QuickBooks as well as Madoff can. Of course, if they ask for the money, I’ll have to explain that it’s all a lie." There's no need to tell them anything but what our parragons of integrity, the hedge funds (18% plus losses in 2008) tell their clients: Retentions aren't allowed for _____ months (fill in the blank according to your pet Ponzi scheme). There is a reason that these things can be called Capital Crimes. Ken,
Great post!
However, I’d like to add this:
“In fact, I think I will do so right now. I will ask a co-worker for a dollar to “invest”, and tell them ten minutes later that their investment is now worth a trillion dollars. I’ll even print up a fancy statement showing this; I can use Excel and QuickBooks as well as Madoff can. Of course, if they ask for the money, I’ll have to explain that it’s all a lie.”
There’s no need to tell them anything but what our parragons of integrity, the hedge funds (18% plus losses in 2008) tell their clients: Retentions aren’t allowed for _____ months (fill in the blank according to your pet Ponzi scheme).
There is a reason that these things can be called Capital Crimes.

]]> By: dead hobo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/how-long-til-madoff-losses-are-recovered/comment-page-1/#comment-138084 dead hobo Thu, 08 Jan 2009 21:28:12 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15416#comment-138084 Nevermind ... I just read the WSJ chart, although something is nagging at me that has an aura of unreality. There's a sub-scam in there somewhere. http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/st_madoff_victims_20081215.html Nevermind … I just read the WSJ chart, although something is nagging at me that has an aura of unreality. There’s a sub-scam in there somewhere.

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/st_madoff_victims_20081215.html

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/how-long-til-madoff-losses-are-recovered/comment-page-1/#comment-138081 leftback Thu, 08 Jan 2009 21:23:02 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15416#comment-138081 Stick Madoff in with OJ. Cage match. Stick Madoff in with OJ. Cage match.

]]> By: DL http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/how-long-til-madoff-losses-are-recovered/comment-page-1/#comment-138080 DL Thu, 08 Jan 2009 21:22:19 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15416#comment-138080 Union pension funds are involved: http://www.cnbc.com/id/28561457 The situation is complicated because of the potential “clawbacks” from retirees who have already received funds. “A recent case labeled the receipt of such money a "fraudulent conveyance" of funds, meaning the redeemer received money that was produced as part of a fraud since this money was derived from the Ponzi scheme not a legitimate investment. Union pension funds are at particular risk from clawbacks because they receive regular payments when members retire” What a mess Union pension funds are involved:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28561457

The situation is complicated because of the potential “clawbacks” from retirees who have already received funds.

“A recent case labeled the receipt of such money a “fraudulent conveyance” of funds, meaning the redeemer received money that was produced as part of a fraud since this money was derived from the Ponzi scheme not a legitimate investment. Union pension funds are at particular risk from clawbacks because they receive regular payments when members retire”

What a mess

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