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Is Anyone Surprised at an Ugly Beige Book?

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 14th, 2009, 3:30PM

This morning, I gently mocked those economists who were (gasp!) surprised that Retail Sales in December stunk.

Which brings us to the Fed’s Beige Book. Can anyone be surprised it was ugly?

Peter Bookvar adds:

The Fed’s Beige Book was downbeat as expected in all areas of the economy and instead of just stating the obvious comments, here is some commentary on banking and finance in light of the debate in DC on the 2nd half of the TARP and issue of lending out the money. “Most districts indicated that lending activity continued to decline or remained weak, and many Districts reported that credit conditions remained tight or tightened further.”

Demand for C&I loans were mixed as was demand for consumer loans. Some districts noted an increase in refi activity. Boston reported that credit availability continues to be a major barrier to CRE activity and SF noted that that the availability of credit remains quite constrained. Comments on housing were of course downbeat and an area that saw an uptick in sales was driven by foreclosures and short sales.

PERMALINK
Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Markets.

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

9 Responses to “Is Anyone Surprised at an Ugly Beige Book?”

  1. Mannwich Says:
    January 14th, 2009 at 3:41 pm

    No, they should rename the “beige book” to the “brown book” to signify something else that’s not so pleasant to look at.

  2. leftback Says:
    January 14th, 2009 at 3:45 pm

    NO surprises at all in the data today, or this week in general. Nothing new in the dismal outlook for housing and retail. The interesting news of the month has been the positive developments in the credit markets (not including today obviously). The CP and high-yield debt markets have improved substantially as we enter a new phase of the crisis/recession. People are getting the message that corporate bonds are safer than common equity in Q1 ’09.

    I have spent much of the week watching the currency move that was sparked by the S&P downgrade of Spain’s sovereign debt and the expectations of ECB easing. The resulting upward move in the $ has just about run its course. We should see a reversal in the EUR:USD soon, and we will probably see the materials and miners rally (perhaps very strongly) this week or next as a result.

  3. DL Says:
    January 14th, 2009 at 4:09 pm

    “Demand for C&I loans [was] mixed …”

    I’m surprised at how little reduction there has been in C&I loans over the last six months.

  4. Matt SF Says:
    January 14th, 2009 at 4:13 pm

    I counted on it. Love those ultra short ETFs!

  5. grumpyoldvet Says:
    January 14th, 2009 at 4:31 pm

    why when i tried the “mocked those economists” link it say FORBIDDEN?

  6. going broke Says:
    January 14th, 2009 at 5:53 pm

    @ grumpyoldvet… all I saw was a page that said “WTF, dude? Why are you harshing my mellow? “

  7. going broke Says:
    January 14th, 2009 at 6:06 pm

    Where do you draw the line between Recession | Depression?

  8. Bruce in Tn Says:
    January 14th, 2009 at 8:09 pm

    What color is the Japanese beige book? I would say red…

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aqG4.7PVAchM&refer=japan

    Japan Machine Orders Fall by Record on Export Slump

  9. Pat G. Says:
    January 14th, 2009 at 9:51 pm

    Absolutely!! I was shocked by those numbers…LOL

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