End devil’s advocate note: yeah, we have far further to go. I just find this chart more reassuring than anything, since it shows abrupt reversals are possible. In past decades. In other circumstances. Whimper.

Thanks for posting this. The title of the chart should be Employment:Population ratio though. Labor Force Participation Rate is a different category from BLS that still has the “Labor Force” fudge factor, while Employment:Population Ratio is free of the fudge. I don’t want to anger the real economists by mislabeling things.

Love your blog. The people here seem less sarcastic, and certainly less cynical than some other sites. I will say, that as this thing has played out, I think I am coming down on the side of the fence that this is the beginning of a new depression. Having never experienced such a thing, I hope I am wrong. But I have lived through at least three pretty good recessions, and done well each time. I think it is different this time…I’ll give you a few thoughts.

First, the speed and global uniformity of the downturn is the one most alarming element here. In spite of the fact that central banks are doing all in their power to stop this, the consumer and business are continuing what I think is best described as deleveraging. But in the end the deleveraging on this massive a scale, I think, brings us to depression. There is a term in physics called momentum. I think this downturn has it in spades…

Second, the salt mine is pretty insulated against recessions. But the people I talk with daily are really scared this time, and I am seeing jobs disappear now (for the last 2 months) that I would have thought were bullet-proof. They are not. We have an enormous number of job applicants for jobs here. Many, many more than one year ago.

I live in a retirement area. Builders are gone. Gone. Auctions of property are now commonplace, and this is only in the last 12 months.

People in my children’s immediate in-law family, who have always had plenty and made plenty, are now seeing the writing on the wall. Honestly.

My wife, who I review the economic news overnight with every morning for a few minutes before heading the the mine, has been convinced for 6 months this was a depression. I pooh-poohed this until just recently. Not anymore.

Let’s hope I’m wrong.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/unemployment-rate/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/comparing-unemployment-rates-across-eras/