Comments on: NFP is . . . -524,000, Unemployment 7.2% http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:27:20 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Jurgen http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/comment-page-1/#comment-138358 Jurgen Sat, 10 Jan 2009 16:33:55 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/#comment-138358 Ethel-to-Tilly: "it seems awfully like knee-jerk oh-my-god-we-can’t-let-bush-look-bad spin" No, this is lets-blame-bush-for-everything spin. Now I see where you are coming from. As president-elect and other opinionated liberals who write these misleading headlines, you are more interested in scoring political points than in reporting the news objectively. I bet that most people who read these misleading headlines yesterday are now have an incorrect perception that the current recession job losses are "the most since WWII", but this is not true. The truth is that so far it is the SIXTH worst since WW II. We lost more jobs (percentage decline in nonfarm employment, using absolute numbers [as the liberal media and opinionated Ethel-to-Tilly is doing] without considering the size of workforce is like comparing apples to oranges) during 1948 (4.3% of workforce), 1953 (3.3% of workforce), 1957 (3.6% of workforce), 1960 (2.2% of workforce) and 1981 (2.3% of workforce). In order for the job losses to be the most since 1945, we would have to lose more than 4.3% of the current labor force, more than 6.6 million. I rest my case. http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/img/4employment_depth_month_large.jpg Ethel-to-Tilly: “it seems awfully like knee-jerk oh-my-god-we-can’t-let-bush-look-bad spin”

No, this is lets-blame-bush-for-everything spin.

Now I see where you are coming from. As president-elect and other opinionated liberals who write these misleading headlines, you are more interested in scoring political points than in reporting the news objectively.

I bet that most people who read these misleading headlines yesterday are now have an incorrect perception that the current recession job losses are “the most since WWII”, but this is not true.

The truth is that so far it is the SIXTH worst since WW II. We lost more jobs (percentage decline in nonfarm employment, using absolute numbers [as the liberal media and opinionated Ethel-to-Tilly is doing] without considering the size of workforce is like comparing apples to oranges) during 1948 (4.3% of workforce), 1953 (3.3% of workforce), 1957 (3.6% of workforce), 1960 (2.2% of workforce) and 1981 (2.3% of workforce).

In order for the job losses to be the most since 1945, we would have to lose more than 4.3% of the current labor force, more than 6.6 million.

I rest my case.

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/img/4employment_depth_month_large.jpg

]]> By: wunsacon http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/comment-page-1/#comment-138327 wunsacon Sat, 10 Jan 2009 06:44:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/#comment-138327 Maybe though we should report in percentages, rather than absolute numbers. Maybe though we should report in percentages, rather than absolute numbers.

]]> By: wunsacon http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/comment-page-1/#comment-138326 wunsacon Sat, 10 Jan 2009 06:44:17 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/#comment-138326 Right on, Ethel-to-Tilly. Right on, Ethel-to-Tilly.

]]> By: JohnnyVee http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/comment-page-1/#comment-138303 JohnnyVee Sat, 10 Jan 2009 00:24:23 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/#comment-138303 Weren't the loss of jobs after WWII the result of the end of jobs created by the war effort? Soldiers went home and American's stopped building ships, jeeps, bombs, etc. If so, the comparison of now and then seems misplaced. Weren’t the loss of jobs after WWII the result of the end of jobs created by the war effort? Soldiers went home and American’s stopped building ships, jeeps, bombs, etc. If so, the comparison of now and then seems misplaced.

]]> By: Ethel-to-Tilly http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/comment-page-1/#comment-138274 Ethel-to-Tilly Fri, 09 Jan 2009 21:35:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/#comment-138274 The fact is, the number of jobs lost being the worst since 1945 IS a true fact. I haven't yet seen anyone or amybody using that to say that that automatically means that the current job situation is the worst since WWII - and the articles themselves don't make that claim - so why the need continually spinning and that reporting on the "fact" without the additional spin is ipso facto "misleading"? Maybe I'm being over-sensitive here and am making assumptions since I don't know you guys that well, but it seems awfully like knee-jerk oh-my-god-we-can't-let-bush-look-bad spin. We've had enough of that for the past 8 years. Why can't we just let the facts speak for themselves instead of making sure that they have to be massaged so that people will draw the proper conclusions or meaning from them. Saying the "fact" is not misleading. The fact is, the number of jobs lost being the worst since 1945 IS a true fact.

I haven’t yet seen anyone or amybody using that to say that that automatically means that the current job situation is the worst since WWII – and the articles themselves don’t make that claim – so why the need continually spinning and that reporting on the “fact” without the additional spin is ipso facto “misleading”?

Maybe I’m being over-sensitive here and am making assumptions since I don’t know you guys that well, but it seems awfully like knee-jerk oh-my-god-we-can’t-let-bush-look-bad spin. We’ve had enough of that for the past 8 years. Why can’t we just let the facts speak for themselves instead of making sure that they have to be massaged so that people will draw the proper conclusions or meaning from them. Saying the “fact” is not misleading.

]]> By: batmando http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/comment-page-1/#comment-138266 batmando Fri, 09 Jan 2009 21:16:21 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/#comment-138266 @ AT "A snap back rally in all assets and pullback in the Yen would not surprise me, especially with the weekend coming…" First, with the close dead on 890, I join in the general kudos and apprecation for your (seeming) prescient calls. Second, I'm looking forward to any postings you might make over the weekend after you have mulled upon the waves. Next week, at any move back above 930, I am over-and-out of my longs. @ AT
“A snap back rally in all assets and pullback in the Yen would not surprise me, especially with the weekend coming…”
First, with the close dead on 890, I join in the general kudos and apprecation for your (seeming) prescient calls.
Second, I’m looking forward to any postings you might make over the weekend after you have mulled upon the waves.
Next week, at any move back above 930, I am over-and-out of my longs.

]]> By: Jurgen http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/comment-page-1/#comment-138242 Jurgen Fri, 09 Jan 2009 20:01:20 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/#comment-138242 Ethel-to-Tilly, The headlines are misleading because the scale of job losses today is nowhere near the severity of job losses we had in 1945. (in terms of percent of workforce) Most people (average Joe and elderly) who reads such misleading headlines think that the current jobs situation is "worst" than what we had in 1945 when unemployment was above 20% Ethel-to-Tilly,

The headlines are misleading because the scale of job losses today is nowhere near the severity of job losses we had in 1945. (in terms of percent of workforce)

Most people (average Joe and elderly) who reads such misleading headlines think that the current jobs situation is “worst” than what we had in 1945 when unemployment was above 20%

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/comment-page-1/#comment-138241 Mannwich Fri, 09 Jan 2009 19:58:01 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/#comment-138241 Heard from a buddy at Oracle. Layoffs to sales reps happening today. He's safe for now but many people packing up boxes all around him and departing. The fun in tech is just beginning. Heard from a buddy at Oracle. Layoffs to sales reps happening today. He’s safe for now but many people packing up boxes all around him and departing. The fun in tech is just beginning.

]]> By: AmenRa http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/comment-page-1/#comment-138215 AmenRa Fri, 09 Jan 2009 17:35:15 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/#comment-138215 Does the y-o-y losses in manufacturing, goods-producing and construction indicate that the GDP still has a long way to go on the downside? Does the y-o-y losses in manufacturing, goods-producing and construction indicate that the GDP still has a long way to go on the downside?

]]> By: Ethel-to-Tilly http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/comment-page-1/#comment-138211 Ethel-to-Tilly Fri, 09 Jan 2009 17:20:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/nfp-is/#comment-138211 "The most since 1945? Really? No, it is NOT" Misleading? Thomas - I certainly would be interested to know in which year since World War II the number of job losses was greater than this one. Otherwise, I don't see what's so misleading about stating a fact. “The most since 1945? Really? No, it is NOT”

Misleading? Thomas – I certainly would be interested to know in which year since World War II the number of job losses was greater than this one. Otherwise, I don’t see what’s so misleading about stating a fact.

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