US Markets followed Europe and Asia lower, with the Dow off 4%.
The financials continue to weigh on everything: Citigroup (down 20%) looks like it wants to go to zero; Bank of America (down 29%) doesn’t look much better.
IBM beat their number after the bell, so perhaps tomorrow might be a better day . . . >
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Knowing that the vote over the weekend in Greece was really a referendum on Euro membership, a majority of the Greek Parliament said yes to staying. European Finance Ministers meet again on Wednesday to solidify the 2nd bailout package for Greece at the same time hopefully a deal is consummated between Greece and its creditors this week. The Greek 14.5b euro bond that matures on March 20th is up by 2 pts. The optimism that all will be completed and contained AGAIN to Greece has yields lower in Portugal, Spain and Italy. The iTraxx Financial Index is also narrower by...
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January 20th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
Here we go. Should be an interesting week.
Kicking myself in a big way for dumping FAZ too soon before today’s run up. Still hanging with SRS, QID and EEV though.
January 20th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Stimulus or not, it won’t get better until the problems are fixed.
January 20th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
faz +40 3/4 skf +28 3/4…those are percent gains, OMG
SKF closed just under 200, and this is just getting rolling again.
I bought both in the premarket for the hell of it, due to nationalization talk out in the open, and the real need for that.(we must destroy this village in order to save it!)
holding for now, but its not that much to lose, acct up about 8% today, nice. Good speech by the O man, he sounds like a nationalizer.
January 20th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
@AndrewShaw: Those funds can turn quickly in this ridiculous environment, so take profits when you get them. I learned that lesson the hard way. That’s a nice run up for one day.
January 20th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
“Citigroup looks like it wants to go to zero”.
I hope Citi gets what it wants.
At the very least, if Obama can’t resist the urge to throw more money at the company, he should wait until it becomes a penny stock first.
January 20th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Hey Wally,
Thanks for that statement, are you serious?
lol.
Barry,
Do you know a place where you can get a running total of earnings that have been reported so far?
Seems to me outside of retail and the banks things have been so dreadful just yet. Maybe I missed something but just off the top we had beats from IBM, JNJ, MON, JPM.
Maybe it’s just that the misses are far worse than expected.
January 20th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
No bounce for the inauguration. Not surprising.
January 20th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Confidence in banking is shattered. I don’t see how any country avoids nationalizing its banking system. What choice is left at this point?
January 20th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
@mannwich: yeah, those are smaller holdings, I’m mostly shorting commons, with a little side-fun in the ETF’s.(those things are gonna blow up this year, they are criminal, try the “home-builders” index which includes holdings in mattress and paint companies, what a joke)
happy trading all.
January 20th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Greetings friends! Its been awhile.
Hey… tomorrows always a better day right? :)
Well, anyways… IBM was good to see, although they are some pretty darn good “financial statement finagglers” (that’s an original, btw… eat your heart out fleckenstein)
Being the crowd follower that he is not… I-Man was buying at the close, picking up some of the only stocks still in uptrends, albeit teetering uptrends. Decided to pick up some of what I was stopped out of last week:
DRYS
AKS
SGR
You know the drill, tight stops, trendlines, and price channels… OH MY.
Some very interesting prints on the intraday 5 min SPY chart after 2:30 pm EST… anyone else see those? Although I snicker at the thought of this clandestine PPT garbage… kinda makes you wonder. Although it could be those damn leveraged ETFs throwing off my TA again…
Speaking of TA…
AT you Elliot Waver you: What are the odds of a nice spike here to the upside?
1-Love,
I-Man
January 20th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
None of this is surprising. Bank nationalization coming to a town near you…….should have happened months ago before any of this TARP nonsense began but alas we always do like to try all the wrong things before eventually doing the right thing. The hubris of the U.S. is that “we do things differently” until we realize that other common sensical plans that have worked before may actually work better.
Picked up some more ACI, COP and MOS today. Small amounts.
January 20th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
I-Man,
I wondered where you went man. Did you enjoy the run I did with energy buys in late November?
I think the only other person on here that was doing that was leftback, he’s been on not as much lately as well.
Anyway, glad to see you are back, always enjoy your posts.
January 20th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Does anyone else own MON besides me????
I see a lot of those fertilizer names like Mannwhich is talking up there but MON looks pretty nice to me.
January 20th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
@ben22: I’ve been thinking about picking up some MON as well but want to be cautious here.
January 20th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Er….um…..it’s 2009 Barry.
I’ve got six letters of hope for today.
PPT…RIP?
God, let’s hope. Don’t mind taking a small hit this afternoon (I’ve gotten conditioned to looking for “supernatural” comebacks). But all I ever really wanted was an honest card game. Maybe…….
January 20th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Mannwich,
Yeah, probably smart to let it move down some, after they reported a few weeks back the stock got a huge pop, it was up around 17% they day they reported, the div is just o.k. but I like the products.
DD might be worth taking a look if you like MON but it wasnt’ for me.
January 20th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
Ben 22:
This earnings calendar is probvided by CNBC:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15906175/
I think part of the problem is that earnings next quarter will be worse than this one, and the market is always looking ahead.
January 20th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Yo Ben, good to hear from you.
I’ve been chillin. Been to lazy to dig through my gmail for my wordpress password honestly… kinda addicted to facebook too, thats been chewing up some web time. Mainly just focusing on trading, reading alot.
Yes, it was a good run those EOY energy plays. Nice work. I’ve taken a few stabs at USO since the new year, but stopped out of all of them… losing is a part of winning.
@ Leftback:
I’ve been taking a hard look at the new double long gold, the DGP, a very clean channel going on there. Would love to own some at 15.50 and even moreso above 19.75, but I-Man will let this channel play out as its kinda right in the middle. We shall see. GLD traded right back down to 80 like I was waiting for after that last breakout attempt failed, but for some dumb reason I failed to pounce… probably too distracted by trying to fight the tape in crude. Nice channel in GLD too. You still bullish on those? GLD GDX?
@Mannwich…
Spooky. I’m still long ACI and MOS too… probably for the next ten years or so. As I claw back. They’re “core holdings” now… :) I’m ashamed to say. Oh well, there are worse stocks to own for sure.
January 20th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
@I-Man; Yeah, my core longs are ACI, MOS, COP and VLO. I keep picking up more on each position on any major dips, while trading in and out of SRS, QID, EEV, and FAZ (stupidly dumped this one on Friday and missed today’s 40% run).
January 20th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
Nationalizing big zombie banks like Citi, Bank of America, JP Morgan and State Street, is the only practical solution. The Fed’s balance sheet is a disaster anyway.
January 20th, 2009 at 5:53 pm
Well, we knew this was coming… let us know when we’re at the bottom, kthxbarry…
January 20th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Any specific reason Goldman’s stock tanked today? bad news upcoming from them?
January 20th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
There may be no better irony than to be an investment advisor, called on to give your picks on the first day of the new administration, and see them both go down 7% in one day:
Brent Wilsey, we hardly knew ye!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28578231
“When I feel the optimism today, how excited everybody is, I think he will have some honeymoon here,” the president of Wilsey Asset Management told CNBC.
January 20th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
I really like seeing specific stock and ETF symbols that you guys are holding. I hope you don’t mind throwing out your picks so some of us who are not so hot at TA can ride your coattails. That’s a win/win, isn’t it? :-)
January 20th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
@I-Man:
I’m sorry I cannot tell you about a spike tomorrow, unless we’re in the middle of some kind “irregular correction,” which would be highly unusual at this position in the wave count.
circa SP futures (Mar): the bearish case is last weeks low at 813 finished an “initial wave” down. From 813 we saw an ABC second wave that peaked into nearly an exact 38.2% retrace at 865. From 865 we started the Third Wave down….From 865 – 832 we had a minor Wave 1, 832 – 847 was a minor Wave 2, and now we had a minor Wave 3 today. So maybe we get some choppy consolidation tomorrow into 816 – 822 for a minor 4….then another puke out.
From a Fibo retracement perspective, the 61.8% got taken out easily today after seemingly holding last week. The last area is the 70.7%/78.62% zone that comes in 800 – 783 on the Cash S&P. If 783 gets taken out then we will set new lows and we will trade down to 600-625.
For new bears….always keep your powder dry. We’ve now fallen far enough to get some wild rallies. For instance, if we do chop tomorrow and puke out to 780′s we will likely get a snap back rally. Every time a five wave decline completes, we will see bear market rallies…some could feel nauseating, especially to new shorts.
Good Luck.
January 20th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
@ Thisson:
Yeah, provided it goes according to plan… but in the words of wisdom:
“Tips are for waiters, not for traders.”
January 20th, 2009 at 6:34 pm
“What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them.”
Barak Hussein Obama
Oh, I think they understand it all right. They are fighting it tooth and nail. The President will carve the greedsters a new asshole.
January 20th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
BudFox says
Any specific reason Goldman’s stock tanked today? bad news upcoming from them?
I don’t know, maybe, it might be because Goldman got kicked out of power today?
Just a hunch.
January 20th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
“What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them.”
Barak Hussein Obama
Oh, I think they understand it all right. They are fighting it tooth and nail. The President will carve the greedsters a new asshole.
Like you’re carving the new spellings of his name? Can you people for one day put aside y0ur hate/disdain?
January 20th, 2009 at 7:23 pm
“The President will carve the greedsters a new asshole.” Hope and change eh?
If you’re hard-working, successful, law-abiding, taxpayer (one that actually pays taxes) and exhibit any level of personal responsibility, you’re a “greedster”, deserving of an asshole carving.
If you’re an overweight under-achieving ambitionless cig-smoking couch-potato doper drop-out waiting for you’re next hand out, you’re in luck.
January 20th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
Bruce,
Thanks much for that link, you could be right, it’s shaping up to be a brutal Q2 but my dear lord, the last three months of last year were awful, I’d like to think it won’t get worse but I”m in denial. I think AT is exactly right and this summer or sooner we are going to see a 600 handle.
@ Mannwich, I would have done the same thing with those Ultra’s, and so what, you made money, don’t worry about today, this will happen again. We can’t all be Steve Barry. I’m not short anything right now, haven’t done any of that since last year.
I was thinking about taking a stab at AAPL today, I think they are going to beat again tom. and then guide lower, I feel like I messed up given IBM after hrs. but I can live with it. I just couldn’t pull the trigger on it. I sort of feel like the Jobs stuff was already in there.
I had looked at GLW before and missed a pretty good trade there as well. Right now I’ve just got lots of cash and a few longs that I’m not going to get rid of.
Also hold a lot of GLD, but I’ve been in gold for almost three years, just riding it along.
Foghorn Longhorn,
I wish GS got kicked out of power but that’s not true.
Did anyone else see the oil report they put out, something along the lines of a violent move upward in the second half. To me they have lost a lot of credibility on stuff like that given the $200 call last year, I just don’t think they are out of power is all.
January 20th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
Tomorrow may be a better day, but if it is, it is designed to shake people from some more money. Despite today’s plunge (do we credit it to the Bush official record or Obama’s?) the 21 day put/call is basically at 52 week lows. Blogger poll and Investor’s Intelligence poll are too bullish…dollar surge is not abating and that will C-R-U-S-H foreign earnings (12% y/y drag) this quarter by my calculation.
Finanlly, as Barry noted, key financial pillars are crumbling. Where is the Slap Happy Economist who said the rally starts this week?
January 20th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
The real question is, do the banks get nationalized this month or next? BAC and C appear done, and I doubt WFC and JPM can stay afloat with that kind of hole in the system. Maybe the silver lining is that taxpayers actually get paid back a decade from now when the gov holds an IPO?
January 20th, 2009 at 7:59 pm
Today’s bearish engulfing candle had its way with the tentatively bottomish gravestone doji and spinning top the last two sessions churned out. The break held at the close below 8150 and then 8000 looks poised for continued downside, and is particularly ominous if we discount those sessions in the 3rd week of November that took the Dow30 to ~7400 intraday as uber-irrational outliers.
January 20th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
@AT said: “So maybe we get some choppy consolidation tomorrow into 816 – 822 for a minor 4….then another puke out.”
I concur. I was looking for 821 and wave 5 shouldn’t go much below 781. I was expecting more upside for Primary 5:2 (perhaps to 877) but you’re right…we might not get it.
January 20th, 2009 at 8:22 pm
Barry, how about posting some charts comparing the worst inaguration days ever in the market…if this was McCain you would have had three posts outlining this. Or how about the worst market since election day to see how good old Barrack compares to other presidents. Looks like the market is speaking and the free ride is over.
January 20th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
@Ventura2012: I believe today was the worst DOW day ever on an Inauguration Day. Don’t think it means anything other than reality is setting in again with the bad news getting worse. Many of us have been calling this very scenario playing out almost 100% accurately since late November (ahem, myself included).
January 20th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
“What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them.”
You think he’s talkin’ about us?
January 20th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
@mlomker:
Yes. I was hoping for an 877 to add on shorts. Every second Wave on this decline has managed to at least retrace 50%. However, the fifth waves on this entire decline have been SWIFT and sharp, so I’m sort of having to just stay “a little” short the entire way down, because this may be a very quick ride down to 600-625 zone.
You see how the big Wave 1 = 5 targets 625? Pretty darn close the 1932 – 2000 61.8% at 595. Would be pretty amazing to see the major 61.8% hold….I guess we might get some new believers if we hold that level.
Let’s just hope that zone holds….
January 20th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
Interesting to note that the major banks funded with our money want to invest 180B into Obama’s infrastructure plans BUT don’t want to lend it to small business owners who are the lifeblood of job creation in this country. It goes to show where their priorities lie. If Obama follows the same road that the Bush Administration did with regard to the financially ailing institutions you’ll see further selling. Obviously, the FED, Treasury, FDIC and a host of other governmental agencies have misdiagnosed the patients and have prescribed treatment the like which rendered them ill to begin with. There might be a bounce but eventually lack of confidence will expedite more selling.
January 20th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
Today’s action has nothing, or maybe everything to do, with Obama. Most of those who didn’t want to believe we are good and truly f&cked, thanks to twenty years of greed, denial, and piss-poor leadership, we’re hoping that BHO would stand up there at the podium, click his heels three times, and repeat: “There’s no such thing as a depression, there’s no such thing as a depression, there’s no such as a depression.” Sorry. Save it for the movies.
January 20th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
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Mr. Obama and crew have been dealt the worse hand in the world’s economic history. Political and social history is largely but a subset of that economic history. As a group US banks are now insolvent with runs on them only prevented by the TARP credit magically supplied and electronically fabricated and placed on their balance sheets by the central bankers (and slightly by Congress) via promised and suspect future tax dollars. The derivative market known as the stock market is poised for a dramatic – and by the new science of saturation macroeconomics – inevitable 6-8 week devolution during new administration’s similar 6-8 first weeks in office. Post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning in a rapidly collapsing economy with unemployment reaching averages of 600,000 to 900,000 a month will rapidly question the economic policy competence of the new administration while parenthetically CEO’s, financial engineers,various types of derivative salesmen, Wall street executives and central bankers continue the game of making money out of nothing but electronic manipulations and speculation misnamed as investment – with their salaries, of course, in real dollars. The real economy is sinking into the macroeconomic abyss of real supply and demand. In this abyss logic and any initial honeymoon administration optimism will be replaced by delusional reasoning and scapegoating. Even a good Secretary of State can go only so far in this environment.
posted Jan 18, 2009 at 08:12:15
January 20th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
How embarrassing for the Mets if Citi goes to zero before one game is played. What a laughingstock…and an incredible extension of the ballpark naming jinx.
January 20th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
@SB: Maybe the Fed and/or Treasury can put it’s name on the new Mets ballpark? Or we could just call it “TARP Field”?
January 20th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
Today, we had some highs (Obama’s inauguration), some lows (the indices), and some surprises (interplay of gold, crude, the usd, and treasuries). We are all commenting from hindsight at this point. I’m keeping my eyes on $gold and $usb.
also of note, are some comments made by doug noland:
It remains my view that our maladjusted economy is in the earliest stage of what will prove a grueling and protracted adjustment period. And with Wall Street finance incapacitated, there will be no alternative than for the banking system to aggressively expand Credit. In rough terms, Bank Credit will need to expand in the Trillion dollar range (10% growth) this year if there is any hope of stemming depressionary forces and stabilizing the system. The way I see it, system-wide Credit expansion of $2.0 TN or so will likely be required, of which about half will be forthcoming from federal borrowings.
Keep in mind, however, that while Washington stimulus would be expected to support general spending throughout the economy, it will be the almost sole responsibility of the banking system (with governmental support) to extend the necessary Credit to reverse the downward spiral in our nation’s troubled asset markets. This will be no small feat. Yet it may be a case that the banks are today in such awful shape that they have no option but to accept massive federal government aid and, along with it, a likely new mandate to get out and lend. Expect the new Administration to hit the ground running.
Candidly, the current environment presents the most difficult macro analysis of my career. The collapse of Lehman was a seminal event in U.S. and global finance. Overnight, Trillions of Wall Street’s financial claims lost their “moneyness.” Trust in history’s most powerful mechanism of Credit expansion was shattered – and for years to come will remain shuttered. Near- and long-term ramifications are momentous, especially when it comes to the performance of asset markets. But, at the same time, the collapse of the historic Credit Bubble has also granted global policymakers an unprecedented mandate to inflate governmental debt and obligations.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12353.htm
Basically, i maintain my view that we are in uncharterd waters (so cliche, i know.) The $usd doesn’t even include the renmimbi, keep in mind. So we can’t live or die by the charts or elliot wave or whatever. Expect the unexpected is probably today’s rule. IMO, there were some spectacular buys out there today. FDX for one. I don’t think the world is ending (Leftback’s TWINE). (He’s traveling, btw, and will catch up eventually.)
Exhausting post. Gotta end it.
January 20th, 2009 at 9:44 pm
Dow 3000 before 2010.
January 20th, 2009 at 9:50 pm
The cat is way out of the bag. The Fed’s balance sheet is a sinkhole and getting deeper. All the whiners crying about the inequity of mark-to-market are going to change their tune. IMHO the banks taking their licks and marking down assets significantly is going to be what’s required for them to get any more fed money for future recaps, otherwise they get preciptously close to zero. This quarter’s financials are smacking everyone back to reality.
January 20th, 2009 at 9:50 pm
FIRE economy inaugurated by JP Morgan is dead. Time to start making things again.
January 20th, 2009 at 9:55 pm
do you guys put any credence in a re-valuation of the dollar via gold? BR had a post yesterday regarding the 1934 deal, and I’ve read two other places about this. Too crazy to happen?
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-g-20s-secret-debt-solution-27996
http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/jan162009B.html
May we continue to live in interesting times, and continue to kick our own asses for missing SRS back at ~52ish…..heavy sign….
January 20th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
not to be way off subject but does anyone else here go to thestreet.com at all?
Reason I ask, and I thought maybe Barry would post something about this, is that James J has been railing against ultra ETF’s for a few weeks now. I caught him doing this around the holiday at a relatives house while he had a sign up that said he wanted to be SEC chair.
Anyway, he was talking about how they should be banned, etc. etc.
So, I go thestreet to read the free Doug Kass articles, that’s about it, but I came across a different article there the other day (maybe last Tuesday or so) from an anonymous author that discussed how wrong they were, how the performance is not as advertised and that they are only used by the uninformed and this was repeated in the article a few times.
The first thing that popped into my mind was Barry and how for a trade he went 50% ultra’s to get the 100% mkt exposure, I thought I hope he posts some sort of response to this. Is Barry uninformed, who got this more right, him or Cramer. The answer of course is Barry makes Cramer look like a fool.
Second thing that I thought of was Steve Barry and QID, don’t know you Steve but I certainly wouldn’t claim you were uninformed
Third thing I thought was what a coward to not put your name on the article and that it has something to do with Cramer’s agenda.
Any thoughts? Barry?
January 20th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
@jrhyno: Thankfully I didn’t miss SRS at 52. Still hold quite a bit of it, which makes me quite happy in spite of dumping FAZ one day too early. Oh well. Can’t hit home runs every time.
January 20th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
Saw that article as well, ben22. I also ready Kass quite a bit as well. Have been reading him faithfully since ’06.
January 20th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
karen@9.34
“So we can’t live or die by the charts or elliot wave or whatever…”
I want take any offense to that comment.
Indeed. The interplay between $US/Gold/Oil was interesting. However, the Gold Market has not yet broken out. The Ten Year Note is carving out an interesting pennant here near the highs. It seems the well advertised bubble has a little more bubblishisnous to it…I saw five guys on CNBC last week talk about getting long the TBT, so of course the long bond market probably has a little further to go.
The $US Dollar and Yen look like they want to break out, but have not yet confirmed upside breakouts, yet.
in re: the Doug Noland note…not sure what the note means..it sounds like just another bewildered economist.
January 20th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
Mannwich,
glad someone else caught that, what did you think, if you don’t mind me asking.
January 20th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
Also, I guess this is as good a place as any.
Hey John Borchers, how bout them banks eh??
January 20th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
Ben22:
The results speak for themselves…QQQQ down 42% last year, QID total return 77%. It’s not exactly 2X inverse, because like almost any short fund I have researched, it is based on daily performance, not long term performance. So it underperformed its “misunderstood” objective by 7%. Since all my equity holdings are QID, I outperformed the S&P by 115 percentage points in 2008. I sure wish I could be so uninformed every year. I just can’t sleep at night, knowing I missed out on that 7%.
PS: There is also an argument that volatility will kill QID…yet last year was the most volatile we will ever live through.
January 20th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
@AT
TBT was a pick up at 36, Karen actually pointed me to that number on that one, and she was right, I bought my first lot (only 100 shares) at $46, mistake… sold for ST loss but I loaded up at $36 and then got out for a decent profit, made the first loss not matter as I had a quick stop out anyway.
January 20th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
@ Steve Barry,
LOL. If you can find it you should read that article, you’ll laugh yourself to sleep tonight.
January 20th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
@Mannwich — TARP Field!! Gotta love it! All rainouts, all the time……
January 20th, 2009 at 10:35 pm
@ben22: I had some similar questions/thoughts – why not attach your name to the article? I’ve heard some bad things about these ultra short ETF’s and think there probably is some credence to them. Have learned they probably shouldn’t be bought and held for long periods of time because volatility can wreak havoc on them (which is why I bought FAZ in the 30′s and then sold it fairly quickly for a profit on Friday too early!)……
although Steve Barry seems to be doing just fine with QID, maybe because QID hasn’t had as much volatility as SRS, SKF, etc.
January 20th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
@Whammer: LOL. The way the Mets finish seasons lately, maybe raining out all of their games wouldn’t be such a bad idea.
January 20th, 2009 at 10:39 pm
AT, no offense intended. i look forward to your posts and perspective, sincerely. also enjoy comparing it to mine.
re: doug noland. been reading him for years and he’s no dunce. sometimes, he just presents the facts (@safehaven) and draws no conclusion. unlike many here, i’m in the inflationist camp. inflate or die, that’s what they are going to do. the old timer’s know this and i’ve always been a little pitcher with big ears my entire 49 years. there is no other way out of this mess. as for the yen, i’ll take 119, although 120 is engraved in my brain.
January 20th, 2009 at 10:46 pm
@karen: I think we get inflation eventually but just think it’s going to take a bit longer than you think to get there. I think we’ll get gut-wrenching deflation this year first followed by inflation in late ’09/early ’10, maybe later.
January 20th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
@AT: “I’m sort of having to just stay “a little” short the entire way down, because this may be a very quick ride down to 600-625 zone.”
A very good point. I’m currently flat and becoming concerned that I might miss out by waiting for an up-move that doesn’t occur. It wouldn’t be the first time…
“You see how the big Wave 1 = 5 targets 625? Pretty darn close the 1932 – 2000 61.8% at 595.”
I hadn’t realized that but it makes a lot of sense.
January 20th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
@Steve Barry
Good point about QID, but look at a 1-year chart SKF vs. XLF. SKF seems to be doing a terrible job of capturing the inverse performance of XLF. I’d much rather short XLF.
“it is based on daily performance, not long term performance…” What does that mean? If you add up all the daily performances, don’t you get the long term performance?
January 20th, 2009 at 11:09 pm
FP,
The math doesn’t work that way, use excel to figure it out.
January 20th, 2009 at 11:34 pm
Steve B., thanks for your read of the action. I agree with your prognosis (I made one bet last year: short SSO with everything that I had, plus margin; I retire Jan. 30th).
January 21st, 2009 at 6:53 am
I may be wrong but I think the Dow is down over 5,000 since Mr. Obama secured the Democrat nomination last summer.
January 21st, 2009 at 7:17 am
johnnyA,
That may be true, I’m not sure it’s actually that high, but the fact that the market was down had nothing at all to do with him getting the nomination IMO.