The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

The next set of site tweaks are in the queue, and the people have spoken: Its not a full blown redesign, but rather, a series of minor upgrades and improvements. The biggest visual changes are going to be making the top header reduced in size, and moving the flash to the Cafe.

Note: The original redesign (TBP 2.0) was way behind schedule, and to get it launched by November — original launch date was July — I cut things out and compromised on others, just to get it done. On the advice of several web designers and programmers including readers), they said get something done, and then tweak/polish TBP 2.5 later — which is now.

This means I need some art work for The Big Picture main page.

Any ideas? Any concepts? Your suggestions?

The main logo is definitely staying — I want a clean fresh graphic to replaces the flash header.

Anyone who designs something I use, gets (in addition to the glory and endless blog groupies), an autographed copy of Bailout Nation, plus a credit buried somewhere on the site.

You guys complained about the flash, so here’s your opportunity to replace it!

Max Keiser ‘s BBC show THE ORACLE January 16th 2009 part 2 of 2

THE ORACLE January 16th 2009 part 2 of 2 with Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert ;

guests are : Ullrich Fichtner , Nigel Eccles, Alec Baldwin and Carrie Quinlan ;

sujects are : what free spending and credit addicted economies like the US and UK can learn from the more prudent Germans, and what difference an Obama presidency might make?

Statement by U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa

Ranking Member of the Committee on Finance

Nomination of Timothy F. Geithner to be Secretary of the Treasury

Thursday, January 22, 2009

The Treasury Secretary has enormous powers in ordinary times and even greater powers right now because of the condition of the economy. The Finance Committee owed the American people all due care and diligence in considering this nomination, and I appreciate the commitment that Chairman Baucus has made to making sure the committee did so.

I also appreciate the assets Mr. Geithner offers with his experience in the financial sector, especially as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In this position, for better or worse, he’s been in the thick of the extraordinary steps taken by the federal government to try to rescue the financial system, including the bailouts of Bear Stearns and AIG. Mr. Geithner has acknowledged that these two transactions in particular should have been more transparent, and that the work of the Treasury Department going forward must be more open and accountable to the taxpayers who are funding the massive effort to stabilize America’s financial system.

With this nomination, all of us who serve on the Finance Committee also had to consider how significant it would be for the head of our nation’s tax administration and tax policy to pay his own taxes without violations. The Treasury Secretary is in charge of the IRS, and must set a good example.

During yesterday’s confirmation hearing, Mr. Geithner gave answers to committee member questions about his tax compliance problems. The nominee’s answers to the committee and during the vetting process give me pause. The explanations for irregularities have ranged from statements that he should have known, to proclamations that if only his accountants had warned him he would have done the right thing. I received a message yesterday from a constituent in Dubuque expressing concern about this nomination. The constituent wrote, “If the man cannot handle his own finances, how is he going to handle the country’s?”

The Senate may vote to confirm the nomination of Mr. Geithner. If so, I will work with him to do what needs to be done for economic recovery, including the areas of tax and fiscal policy and new markets through international trade. I will also work to fulfill my obligations as a United States Senator in our system of checks and balances. That said, I cannot vote to confirm the nomination based on the record and the need to foster greater accountability in both big government and our financial institutions.

-30-

I’ve been in a conference all day, but from down 250 to flat on the Dow is pretty impressive.

(I know, Its still early, but . . .)

Is this anything more thannoise, or is somerthing else going on here?

CNBC: The porn economy
“The ‘Girls Gone Wild’ creator is asking the government for bailout cash, reports CNBC’s Melissa Lee.”

Source: CNBC, January 9, 2009.

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See also:
Film, Porn Shoots Sought by Los Angeles Homeowners Hit by Slump
Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aYRTVXV1dnuE&

Since you are into posting long term charts, here is another one. You might want to take note of the years ending in 2. There is a ten yr cycle from 1932-1942, a 40 yr cycle from 1942 to 1982 and 50 yr cycle from 1932 to 1982. Projecting 10 yrs from 2002 we get 2012 which fits with the Mayan calendar dates. If you shoot out 40 and yrs from 1982, you get 2022 and 2032. Just fun with cycles.

The long-term 1932-1982 trendline is sloping into 4000 in 2009. It is a bet I am sure the Black Swan guru has a few nickels on.

Event-Driven Research for Risk Managers
John Bougearel
Director of Financial and Equity Research
Structural Logic, Inc.

Nice comparison via Bob Bronson of 1929, 1962, 1987, and 2008:

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Builder Toll Brothers is hoping to spur some interest in their homes via an ultra low mortgage rate of 3.99%

To qualify for this rate, buyers need:

• FICO credit score of 720 or higher;

• Down payment of 20% (with no PMI)

• Mortgages of $417,000 or less.

To give you an idea of how aggressive these rates are, Mortgages are at record lows. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 4.96%, down from 5.69% a year ago. The WSJ reports this is the lowest since Freddie Mac began its survey in 1971.

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Source:
Builder Offers 3.99% Rate on Mortgage
DAWN WOTAPKA
WSJ, JANUARY 21, 2009

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123259465468105115.html

Meredith Whitney’s Financial Times Comment yesterday offers another reason for more dramatic government action: management’s unwillingness to accept reality. Whitney tries to make an analogy between the over-extended taxpayer holding a yard sale and the banks’ clinging to their assets. That doesn’t really have much impact. But if you combine her argument with the growing calls for nationalization, you begin to see a rationale for the government’s breaking up any existing banks that cannot survive. Talk about creative destruction:

The fact is that there is money on the sidelines looking for opportunities to invest. One constant question I get from investors, who need somewhere to put their money, is: if I had to own something, what would it be? I am not very helpful to them at the moment as my answer is that I would own nothing. I do tell them that I believe that later in the year there will be fabulous opportunities to invest in new combinations of businesses that are currently “off the menu” to individuals. What I mean by this is that the system will eventually force disposals of assets: here I am just arguing that we need to get to it sooner rather than later. [Emphasis added]

Funding is the critical challenge to outsiders’ ability to bid more aggressively for assets. Many of these potential investors have clean balance sheets and, if provided with the appropriate funding concession (guarantees of long-term, low-cost capital from the government), could also more ably lubricate the financial system by making actual loans. These investors could be private-equity firms or existing public companies. The key here is government providing a funding concession and the banks being forced to sell assets that could raise capital and provide some tax relief to taxpayers.

No one doubts that losses will go higher, so asset sales are certain to be heavily discounted just as initial bids for collateralised debt obligations and retail mortgage-backed securities were. However, in retrospect, those “discounts” were far less than the write­downs companies took just months later.

Source:

America’s Banks Need to Hold a Yard Sale
MEREDITH WHITNEY
Financial Times; January 21, 2009

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d742ba70-e7da-11dd-b2a5-0000779fd2ac.html