Comments on: Retail: Out and About on a Friday Morning http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/retail-out-and-about/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 21:07:54 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/retail-out-and-about/comment-page-1/#comment-137290 Mark E Hoffer Sun, 04 Jan 2009 07:32:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14776#comment-137290 "I hate to see the glass half full, because I’m normally a skeptical “half-empty” fellow, but doesn’t this mean that those who remain will be stronger?"--AT re: "glass half full"--we might care to wonder how much brain damage that 'metaphor' has, already, done. LSS: in our Environment, the Glass is Always Full, it's only a question of : "with what?" and, w/ this: "that those who remain will be stronger?", similiarly, in which Fashion would you be referring to? in our fen of, increasingly, fickle Finance by Fiat, it's becoming more difficult, and dangerous, thereby, to assume.. “I hate to see the glass half full, because I’m normally a skeptical “half-empty” fellow, but doesn’t this mean that those who remain will be stronger?”–AT

re: “glass half full”–we might care to wonder how much brain damage that ‘metaphor’ has, already, done.

LSS: in our Environment, the Glass is Always Full, it’s only a question of : “with what?”

and, w/ this: “that those who remain will be stronger?”, similiarly, in which Fashion would you be referring to? in our fen of, increasingly, fickle Finance by Fiat, it’s becoming more difficult, and dangerous, thereby, to assume..

]]> By: Lynn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/retail-out-and-about/comment-page-1/#comment-137264 Lynn Sun, 04 Jan 2009 01:24:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14776#comment-137264 I bet a lot of the after Xmas shopping is people spending their gift cards. Those things are sold everywhere. Wal-Mart has a display of gift cards from every store you can think of. They make one-stop-shopping for Xmas, possible. On another note: I want to buy a big screen TV but I'm afraid that whichever store I buy it from might file for bankruptcy, or worse, go out of business. I won't have the store deliver it because if the store goes under before it's delivered I may never see the TV. If I get it home and have a problem, calling the store's tech dept. may not be an option. I know I can get around the first problem by paying with a credit card, but it's going to be a pain-in-the-ass (pita) if this purchase doesn't go smoothly. My point: It's an interesting dilemma. I have the money, but have delayed making the purchase because of the possible hassle. PS: Does this thing have a spell checker, or do I have to do it the old fashion way? :-) I bet a lot of the after Xmas shopping is people spending their gift cards. Those things are sold everywhere. Wal-Mart has a display of gift cards from every store you can think of. They make one-stop-shopping for Xmas, possible.

On another note:
I want to buy a big screen TV but I’m afraid that whichever store I buy it from might file for bankruptcy, or worse, go out of business. I won’t have the store deliver it because if the store goes under before it’s delivered I may never see the TV. If I get it home and have a problem, calling the store’s tech dept. may not be an option. I know I can get around the first problem by paying with a credit card, but it’s going to be a pain-in-the-ass (pita) if this purchase doesn’t go smoothly.
My point: It’s an interesting dilemma. I have the money, but have delayed making the purchase because of the possible hassle.

PS: Does this thing have a spell checker, or do I have to do it the old fashion way? :-)

]]> By: karen http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/retail-out-and-about/comment-page-1/#comment-137227 karen Sat, 03 Jan 2009 21:01:17 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14776#comment-137227 AT, I echo your sentiments on the retailers. Another case in point, my neighbor is in the mortage forms/software business. As residential RE loan processing came to a near standstill, their margin kept them afloat while a good number of their competitors shutdown. On a monthly revenue basis, they are now up 27-30% from their lows, have new projects and new business. In the retail sector, I'm following a few individual/popular names as tells or short term trades: APP, URBN and JCG. As for myself, I haven't decided if I'm sick of being a bear for the last 2 years or love being a contrarian; the point, more likely, is to keep making money no matter the direction of the market. AT, I echo your sentiments on the retailers. Another case in point, my neighbor is in the mortage forms/software business. As residential RE loan processing came to a near standstill, their margin kept them afloat while a good number of their competitors shutdown. On a monthly revenue basis, they are now up 27-30% from their lows, have new projects and new business. In the retail sector, I’m following a few individual/popular names as tells or short term trades: APP, URBN and JCG. As for myself, I haven’t decided if I’m sick of being a bear for the last 2 years or love being a contrarian; the point, more likely, is to keep making money no matter the direction of the market.

]]> By: Andy Tabbo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/retail-out-and-about/comment-page-1/#comment-137210 Andy Tabbo Sat, 03 Jan 2009 19:37:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14776#comment-137210 I hate to see the glass half full, because I'm normally a skeptical "half-empty" fellow, but doesn't this mean that those who remain will be stronger? Isn't the idea behind recessions/depressions to wipe out the weak businesses that were allowed to spring up during the previous periods excesses? It certainly means depressed CRE, but doesn't it also mean that retailers with good businesses continue and perhaps even get stronger? The Best Buy nearby was a complete ZOO before and AFTER Xmas...the parking was jammed and the place was FULL. I don't buy individual stocks or ETFs, but wouldn't chains like WMT (already doing great), Target, Best Buy, Kohls? be beneficiaries of a big wipeout of the lesser rans? Wonder if there's some kind of cross trade there? i.e Buy several good retailers you like and short CRE/REITs? That trade has probably already been running...just tossing out crap on a saturday afternoon waiting on football. Missed the Friday afternoon action, but that ten year note looks very, very toppy...the action on the Yen doesn't look great, either. Those are all developments that should continue to help the risky assets like stocks and commodities in the short term. I did some oil v. gold trade yday and it felt good. It sure feels like we could get a run in oil (too many bears) while gold (too may bulls) languishes. - AT I hate to see the glass half full, because I’m normally a skeptical “half-empty” fellow, but doesn’t this mean that those who remain will be stronger?

Isn’t the idea behind recessions/depressions to wipe out the weak businesses that were allowed to spring up during the previous periods excesses? It certainly means depressed CRE, but doesn’t it also mean that retailers with good businesses continue and perhaps even get stronger?

The Best Buy nearby was a complete ZOO before and AFTER Xmas…the parking was jammed and the place was FULL.

I don’t buy individual stocks or ETFs, but wouldn’t chains like WMT (already doing great), Target, Best Buy, Kohls? be beneficiaries of a big wipeout of the lesser rans?

Wonder if there’s some kind of cross trade there? i.e Buy several good retailers you like and short CRE/REITs? That trade has probably already been running…just tossing out crap on a saturday afternoon waiting on football.

Missed the Friday afternoon action, but that ten year note looks very, very toppy…the action on the Yen doesn’t look great, either. Those are all developments that should continue to help the risky assets like stocks and commodities in the short term.

I did some oil v. gold trade yday and it felt good. It sure feels like we could get a run in oil (too many bears) while gold (too may bulls) languishes.

- AT

]]> By: Strassertalk http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/retail-out-and-about/comment-page-1/#comment-137136 Strassertalk Sat, 03 Jan 2009 00:41:24 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14776#comment-137136 JPM still seems to head the list of derivative holders, and re: Gold and Silver, of interest is an article read several days ago that in the last several months, JPM (with the Fed in tow) seems to be the biggest short in gold and silver... notice the change from Q2/08 to Q3/08 per Ron Kirby, here: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1230678365.php JPM still seems to head the list of derivative holders, and re: Gold and Silver, of interest is an article read several days ago that in the last several months, JPM (with the Fed in tow) seems to be the biggest short in gold and silver… notice the change from Q2/08 to Q3/08 per Ron Kirby, here:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1230678365.php

]]> By: debreuil http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/retail-out-and-about/comment-page-1/#comment-137124 debreuil Fri, 02 Jan 2009 22:41:56 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14776#comment-137124 In the day of computerized inventories we weren't every supposed to get in one of those '70's inventory nightmares. Indeed it works pretty good, but the thing they forgot is that you can also store inventory on the customer side. I think we have all the useless shit we need for the next five years -- stuffed in our basements and parked in our yards. Now that is an inventory problem. At least it is if you sell useless shit for a living. In the day of computerized inventories we weren’t every supposed to get in one of those ’70’s inventory nightmares. Indeed it works pretty good, but the thing they forgot is that you can also store inventory on the customer side. I think we have all the useless shit we need for the next five years — stuffed in our basements and parked in our yards.

Now that is an inventory problem. At least it is if you sell useless shit for a living.

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/retail-out-and-about/comment-page-1/#comment-137122 Mannwich Fri, 02 Jan 2009 22:18:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14776#comment-137122 @Tom K: Not many mark downs at REI the other day either. Had some clearance items for sale but most of their stuff was full price and the store was quite full. I think some retailers (like REI, Wal Mart, Costco) will do just fine but others are clearly getting murdered. @Tom K: Not many mark downs at REI the other day either. Had some clearance items for sale but most of their stuff was full price and the store was quite full. I think some retailers (like REI, Wal Mart, Costco) will do just fine but others are clearly getting murdered.

]]> By: Tom K http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/retail-out-and-about/comment-page-1/#comment-137121 Tom K Fri, 02 Jan 2009 22:14:03 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14776#comment-137121 Boy, I keep hearing about all great bargains and deflation during this recession...too bad I haven't seen them for items I've shopped for. Just finished my basement and spent a good sum on AV equipment (online purchases). The 46" Samsumg I bought actually increased in price between early Nov and Christmas...and it wasn't even the most recent model. The Harmon-Kardon speakers I bought were apparently in such high demand/low supply that I had to wait for 6 weeks to receive delivery - again, no discounted pricing anywhere. I also went to a Cabela's store at the crack of dawn on 12/26 hoping to find some great deals. No such luck. Everything on my shopping list was marked at their standard prices and I didn't see great deals on anything, but long lines at the register. Boy, I keep hearing about all great bargains and deflation during this recession…too bad I haven’t seen them for items I’ve shopped for.

Just finished my basement and spent a good sum on AV equipment (online purchases). The 46″ Samsumg I bought actually increased in price between early Nov and Christmas…and it wasn’t even the most recent model. The Harmon-Kardon speakers I bought were apparently in such high demand/low supply that I had to wait for 6 weeks to receive delivery – again, no discounted pricing anywhere.

I also went to a Cabela’s store at the crack of dawn on 12/26 hoping to find some great deals. No such luck. Everything on my shopping list was marked at their standard prices and I didn’t see great deals on anything, but long lines at the register.

]]> By: batmando http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/retail-out-and-about/comment-page-1/#comment-137117 batmando Fri, 02 Jan 2009 21:52:54 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14776#comment-137117 @ larster at 3:31 pm "We may already have bailed out CRE in that the banks, etc. are holding on to the TARP funds and are not divulging what they are doing with these monies. Maybe they are using it as a reserve against upcoming CRE losses." So if the banks have TARP funds as reserves against losses on their CRE paper that insulates them, but as CRE goes bust in '09 the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index still tanks and SRS soars? @ larster at 3:31 pm
“We may already have bailed out CRE in that the banks, etc. are holding on to the TARP funds and are not divulging what they are doing with these monies. Maybe they are using it as a reserve against upcoming CRE losses.”
So if the banks have TARP funds as reserves against losses on their CRE paper that insulates them, but as CRE goes bust in ‘09 the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index still tanks and SRS soars?

]]> By: DP http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/retail-out-and-about/comment-page-1/#comment-137115 DP Fri, 02 Jan 2009 21:50:34 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=14776#comment-137115 Now they're talking about a "Buy American" call on CNBC. Hey business, here's a deal for you, I'll take the "Buy American" philosophy a little more seriously if you lead with the way with a "Hire American" standard. Btw, snapping together 50 parts sourced from China and Taiwan in a shed in Alabama does not qualify as "American made". Now they’re talking about a “Buy American” call on CNBC.

Hey business, here’s a deal for you, I’ll take the “Buy American” philosophy a little more seriously if you lead with the way with a “Hire American” standard.

Btw, snapping together 50 parts sourced from China and Taiwan in a shed in Alabama does not qualify as “American made”.

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