sorry man, I’m being a jerk. I enjoy your posts so I don’t mind if you are doing it at work.

I think the first quarter will be not fugly…but fubar. Interesting day at the salt mine. I am as busy as I have ever been in my life, but I am not sure what the future holds. Should be an interesting year…

Smart move by Obama though. These guys love the idea of access and he can give it or take it away. And it’s hard to be too shitty when you’ve shared a martini with someone.

You also make a great point about the concentration of retail declines in the last few months of the year. The full year for auto sales is around 13 million but in the last three months they were retailing well under a million units a month.

January 14th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
I’m sure it varies industry by industry, but I know big department sales cut deals when they buy were they are guaranteed a certain profit margin on what they purchase. So after all the cut backs, they then get to invoice their suppliers for an loss below that guarantee. What this amounts to is shifting the real problems out a month or two when these invoices become due and post due…

Maybe but some of those numbers were goofy like Electronics -1%. And your talking about margins not revenue declines which I expect to be in double figures versus the same period 2007.

January 14th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
While in the car just now, I got a brief dose of Rush as I changed channels. He was criticizing Obama’s dinner with someone, saying the Obama should have invited a real conservative to dinner.

Apparently, George Will had a dinner for all “respectable” conservative pundits like Kristol and Brooks to meet Obama and Rush didn’t get invited so Rush is pissed because he was considered not respectable, lower class or something.

Thank you for your explanations.

However, I am still a little confused in a broader context. You have railed about various government statistics as being of poor quality. In your opinion, which have reasonable value as stated, which are somewhat useful, and which are total crap? If you have time, please provide a brief explanation as to why you believe as you do. (this might make a good feature piece)

I will accept your evaluation and move forward from that point.

Thank you.

“Aren’t heating oil and nymex crude two different commodities.”

Well, yes, but you can’t get one without the other, my friend.
[Insert the usual jokes about the "crack spread" here]
Cue ribald laughter around TBP Nation…

@ Mike: I think Rush and Bill O’ would consider Larry a bit limp for their tastes.

I’m sure it varies industry by industry, but I know big department sales cut deals when they buy were they are guaranteed a certain profit margin on what they purchase. So after all the cut backs, they then get to invoice their suppliers for an loss below that guarantee. What this amounts to is shifting the real problems out a month or two when these invoices become due and post due…