The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

2 Responses to “Signs of Life Behind the Bad News”

1. Texican Says:
   January 5th, 2009 at 1:22 pm

   This is real simple. The market can fool some of the people some of the time, but the forward PE on the SPX has risen to 22 based on most recent 2009 earnings estimates.

   I’ll take the short side of that bet with global manufacturing of just about any durable good falling off of a cliff. Not only are there no sales, there are going to be massive inventory writedowns, unless of course the Fed decides that inventories should not be written off. Even then, people of average intelligence will figure out what’s really going on.

   No earnings. No capitulation.

   No sustained rally.

   Look out below.

2. VangelV Says:
   January 6th, 2009 at 9:59 am

   There might be a rally if the Fed and the Obama administration manage to devalue the dollar but such ‘gains’ are useless to those that want to see an increase in their purchasing power. I won’t take the long or short side of the general equities and prefer to have exposure to the precious metals and commodities that have sound fundamentals behind them.