Signs of Life Behind the Bad News
By Barry Ritholtz - January 5th, 2009, 11:15AM
Some vital signs are improving
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Signs of Life Behind the Bad News
In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Macro Notes
US$ rally continuesPeter Boockvar
Asian currencies continue to sell off vs the $ on the heels of the news yesterday that South Korea said they will look into hot money inflows stemming from the $ carry trade and the Bank of Indonesia said they are looking into the foreign buying of bills. This follows the news a few weeks ago that Taiwan was limiting foreign deposit holdings and Brazil was taxing foreign inflow transactions. As I mentioned yesterday, we may have reached a short term pain threshold in terms of $ weakness and foreign countries are fighting back as they certainly won't wait for...
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January 5th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
This is real simple. The market can fool some of the people some of the time, but the forward PE on the SPX has risen to 22 based on most recent 2009 earnings estimates.
I’ll take the short side of that bet with global manufacturing of just about any durable good falling off of a cliff. Not only are there no sales, there are going to be massive inventory writedowns, unless of course the Fed decides that inventories should not be written off. Even then, people of average intelligence will figure out what’s really going on.
No earnings. No capitulation.
No sustained rally.
Look out below.
January 6th, 2009 at 9:59 am
There might be a rally if the Fed and the Obama administration manage to devalue the dollar but such ‘gains’ are useless to those that want to see an increase in their purchasing power. I won’t take the long or short side of the general equities and prefer to have exposure to the precious metals and commodities that have sound fundamentals behind them.