Comments on: Signs of Life Behind the Bad News http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/signs-of-life-behind-the-bad-news/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 10:39:57 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: VangelV http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/signs-of-life-behind-the-bad-news/comment-page-1/#comment-137627 VangelV Tue, 06 Jan 2009 14:59:11 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15094#comment-137627 There might be a rally if the Fed and the Obama administration manage to devalue the dollar but such 'gains' are useless to those that want to see an increase in their purchasing power. I won't take the long or short side of the general equities and prefer to have exposure to the precious metals and commodities that have sound fundamentals behind them. There might be a rally if the Fed and the Obama administration manage to devalue the dollar but such ‘gains’ are useless to those that want to see an increase in their purchasing power. I won’t take the long or short side of the general equities and prefer to have exposure to the precious metals and commodities that have sound fundamentals behind them.

]]> By: Texican http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/signs-of-life-behind-the-bad-news/comment-page-1/#comment-137515 Texican Mon, 05 Jan 2009 18:22:05 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15094#comment-137515 This is real simple. The market can fool some of the people some of the time, but the forward PE on the SPX has risen to 22 based on most recent 2009 earnings estimates. I'll take the short side of that bet with global manufacturing of just about any durable good falling off of a cliff. Not only are there no sales, there are going to be massive inventory writedowns, unless of course the Fed decides that inventories should not be written off. Even then, people of average intelligence will figure out what's really going on. No earnings. No capitulation. No sustained rally. Look out below. This is real simple. The market can fool some of the people some of the time, but the forward PE on the SPX has risen to 22 based on most recent 2009 earnings estimates.

I’ll take the short side of that bet with global manufacturing of just about any durable good falling off of a cliff. Not only are there no sales, there are going to be massive inventory writedowns, unless of course the Fed decides that inventories should not be written off. Even then, people of average intelligence will figure out what’s really going on.

No earnings. No capitulation.

No sustained rally.

Look out below.

]]>