Comments on: SPX Retracement http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/spx-retracement/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 12:35:08 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/spx-retracement/comment-page-1/#comment-139104 Mannwich Thu, 15 Jan 2009 00:37:06 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16108#comment-139104 Thanks for the info, AT! Thanks for the info, AT!

]]> By: Andy Tabbo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/spx-retracement/comment-page-1/#comment-139091 Andy Tabbo Wed, 14 Jan 2009 23:23:40 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16108#comment-139091 Sorry guys. Would have responded to this kind of post much earlier. Very, very ominous price action. I was getting friends out of the market at around 900 and I had been posting cautionary messages the last few days.....wish I had been wrong. I really wanted to get short at much higher levels than this....I missed A LOT of this move down. Ugh! The action off the highs is NOT good, obviously. Circa S&P futures: The move off the 942.50 highs to the recent levels definitely has the signature of an unfolding five wave move. We may very well get some rallies, but EVERY rally at this point is a selling opportunity. At this point I don't think we will see 942.50 again. We will be fortunate to see 900 handle. It looks very much like the Major Degree Fourth Wave concluded at 942.50, and we are now in the beginning stages of the Final Fifth Wave down. My current count of the "initial" Wave down. Minor Wave 1 = 942.50 to 892 Minor Wave 2 = 892 to 915 Minor Wave 3 = 915 to 857 Minor Wave 4 = 857 to 875 Now here's the tricky part....Because the Wave 1 was approximately equal to Wave 3, it means that the Fifth wave that started at 875 is the EXTENDING Wave, so the targets are: 822 for a Wave 5 = .618 * (Waves 1 - 3) or: 789 for a Wave 5 = Waves (1 - 3) Interestingly the 61.8% retrace of the entire advance comes in around 817, so 817-822 is the zone that must be held tomorrow, otherwise the next step will be down to 789, which should hold. I expect some kind of support tomorrow into 817 - 822...it also corresponds with some nice support levels in terms of classical chart analysis. It's also interesting to note that none of the classic Fibbo retracments are providing any kind of support on this decline. This is another bit of evidence to suggest that the move down from 942.50 is it's "own" move and not some B wave the will lead to some other C wave higher later on. When this current "initial" leg down finishes at either 787 ish or 822 ish in the next few days, we should then get a pretty good snap back rally...maybe the last Obama Feel Good Bounce? - AT Sorry guys. Would have responded to this kind of post much earlier.

Very, very ominous price action. I was getting friends out of the market at around 900 and I had been posting cautionary messages the last few days…..wish I had been wrong. I really wanted to get short at much higher levels than this….I missed A LOT of this move down. Ugh!

The action off the highs is NOT good, obviously. Circa S&P futures:

The move off the 942.50 highs to the recent levels definitely has the signature of an unfolding five wave move. We may very well get some rallies, but EVERY rally at this point is a selling opportunity. At this point I don’t think we will see 942.50 again. We will be fortunate to see 900 handle. It looks very much like the Major Degree Fourth Wave concluded at 942.50, and we are now in the beginning stages of the Final Fifth Wave down.

My current count of the “initial” Wave down.

Minor Wave 1 = 942.50 to 892
Minor Wave 2 = 892 to 915
Minor Wave 3 = 915 to 857
Minor Wave 4 = 857 to 875

Now here’s the tricky part….Because the Wave 1 was approximately equal to Wave 3, it means that the Fifth wave that started at 875 is the EXTENDING Wave, so the targets are:

822 for a Wave 5 = .618 * (Waves 1 – 3) or:
789 for a Wave 5 = Waves (1 – 3)

Interestingly the 61.8% retrace of the entire advance comes in around 817, so 817-822 is the zone that must be held tomorrow, otherwise the next step will be down to 789, which should hold. I expect some kind of support tomorrow into 817 – 822…it also corresponds with some nice support levels in terms of classical chart analysis.

It’s also interesting to note that none of the classic Fibbo retracments are providing any kind of support on this decline. This is another bit of evidence to suggest that the move down from 942.50 is it’s “own” move and not some B wave the will lead to some other C wave higher later on.

When this current “initial” leg down finishes at either 787 ish or 822 ish in the next few days, we should then get a pretty good snap back rally…maybe the last Obama Feel Good Bounce?

- AT

]]> By: gregh http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/spx-retracement/comment-page-1/#comment-139064 gregh Wed, 14 Jan 2009 22:07:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16108#comment-139064 I think the 'this time is different' rule still applies in that our market's behavior is still a huge ?-mark. Credit Crisis indicators are improving (see calculatedrisk), but otherwise nothing seems very typical or normal regarding this climate. Whether using fibonacci's, pivot points, moving avgs etc - nobody has been extremely accurate... I think the ‘this time is different’ rule still applies in that our market’s behavior is still a huge ?-mark. Credit Crisis indicators are improving (see calculatedrisk), but otherwise nothing seems very typical or normal regarding this climate. Whether using fibonacci’s, pivot points, moving avgs etc – nobody has been extremely accurate…

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/spx-retracement/comment-page-1/#comment-139042 Mannwich Wed, 14 Jan 2009 21:08:04 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16108#comment-139042 I see the market breaking its 6-day schneide tomorrow, but what do I know? AT? Where are you? We await for your analysis. In the meantime, getting bundled up to take the dog out into the frozen tundra. Not good times. Sparkling sunny day though! There's my Bob Pisani/Erin Burnett/Dennis Kneale/Larry Kudlow "silver lining" and/or "mustard seeds" for you. I see the market breaking its 6-day schneide tomorrow, but what do I know? AT? Where are you? We await for your analysis. In the meantime, getting bundled up to take the dog out into the frozen tundra. Not good times. Sparkling sunny day though! There’s my Bob Pisani/Erin Burnett/Dennis Kneale/Larry Kudlow “silver lining” and/or “mustard seeds” for you.

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/spx-retracement/comment-page-1/#comment-139040 leftback Wed, 14 Jan 2009 20:59:08 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16108#comment-139040 AT will be back with a sage pronouncement. He is probably perusing thousands of charts right this minute. AT will be back with a sage pronouncement. He is probably perusing thousands of charts right this minute.

]]> By: emmanuel117 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/spx-retracement/comment-page-1/#comment-139031 emmanuel117 Wed, 14 Jan 2009 20:05:12 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16108#comment-139031 AT, where are you? : ( AT, where are you? : (

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/spx-retracement/comment-page-1/#comment-139021 leftback Wed, 14 Jan 2009 19:37:25 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16108#comment-139021 We may find that we need to make inflation adjustments to the trading range as 2009 progresses and the money supply is expanded. After a 10% slide in a very short period we seem ripe for a bounce here. We may find that we need to make inflation adjustments to the trading range as 2009 progresses and the money supply is expanded. After a 10% slide in a very short period we seem ripe for a bounce here.

]]> By: DL http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/spx-retracement/comment-page-1/#comment-139020 DL Wed, 14 Jan 2009 19:34:28 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16108#comment-139020 Citigroup is now below $5/share. Life as we know it will cease, if they don't get another bailout. Citigroup is now below $5/share.

Life as we know it will cease, if they don’t get another bailout.

]]> By: going broke http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/spx-retracement/comment-page-1/#comment-139019 going broke Wed, 14 Jan 2009 19:29:24 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16108#comment-139019 In the chart, there's the trading range for 2009. Possible high of 1003 and possible low of 741. For the upside, strong resistance @ 907 & again at 936. Downside support from here is weak. In the chart, there’s the trading range for 2009. Possible high of 1003 and possible low of 741. For the upside, strong resistance @ 907 & again at 936. Downside support from here is weak.

]]> By: Moss http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/spx-retracement/comment-page-1/#comment-139013 Moss Wed, 14 Jan 2009 19:18:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16108#comment-139013 @DL: The old leader certainty does not inspire. @venndata: CG reminds me of the chest pounding baboon attempting to draw attention to himself. @DL: The old leader certainty does not inspire.

@venndata: CG reminds me of the chest pounding baboon attempting to draw attention to himself.

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