Super Cycle Market Overview
By Barry Ritholtz - January 2nd, 2009, 7:26AM
"While money doesn't buy love, it puts you in a great bargaining position." —Anonymous
Macro Notes
US$ rally continuesPeter Boockvar
Asian currencies continue to sell off vs the $ on the heels of the news yesterday that South Korea said they will look into hot money inflows stemming from the $ carry trade and the Bank of Indonesia said they are looking into the foreign buying of bills. This follows the news a few weeks ago that Taiwan was limiting foreign deposit holdings and Brazil was taxing foreign inflow transactions. As I mentioned yesterday, we may have reached a short term pain threshold in terms of $ weakness and foreign countries are fighting back as they certainly won't wait for...
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January 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 am
Love charts like this..but it rasises questions…what are they using for “stock market”…S&P500? what are they doing to simulate whatever index they use back to 1870?…The 16 year periodicity is more well defined? It happened twice in a row over 140 years… It’s hard for me to believe the “real total return” never once got outside this uptrend channel in 140 years.
January 2nd, 2009 at 8:49 am
It did twice, 1929 and 1999. And then the upper channel trendline was shifted up to accomodate those peaks
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:18 pm
Fortunately for us the internet archives other predictions by the “cycle” theorists such as this one..
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/2003/1031.html