Super Cycle Market Overview
By Barry Ritholtz - January 2nd, 2009, 7:26AM
Macro Notes
Consumer Credit continues downward trendPeter Boockvar
Consumer Credit outstanding fell $14.8b in Sept seasonally adjusted, almost $5b more than expected and marks the 11th month in the past 12 of declines. At $2.456T outstanding, it is 4.9% below the record high in July '08. After a flat reading in Aug, (didn't fall b/c of the CARS program), non revolving debt outstanding fell by $4.9B. Revolving (mostly credit cards) balances outstanding fell by $9.9B. To fully put into perspective today's data, look at the current level of consumer credit (doesn't include mortgages, the biggest chunk of consumer credit) relative to GDP. As of Q3, it totaled 17.2%...
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January 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 am
Love charts like this..but it rasises questions…what are they using for “stock market”…S&P500? what are they doing to simulate whatever index they use back to 1870?…The 16 year periodicity is more well defined? It happened twice in a row over 140 years… It’s hard for me to believe the “real total return” never once got outside this uptrend channel in 140 years.
January 2nd, 2009 at 8:49 am
It did twice, 1929 and 1999. And then the upper channel trendline was shifted up to accomodate those peaks
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:18 pm
Fortunately for us the internet archives other predictions by the “cycle” theorists such as this one..
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/2003/1031.html