Super Cycle Market Overview
By Barry Ritholtz - January 2nd, 2009, 7:26AM
"Money often cost too much." —Ralph Waldo Emerson
Macro Notes
Jobless ClaimsPeter Boockvar
Initial Jobless Claims totaled 614k, 1k less than expected but the prior month was revised up by 3k to 630k. Continuing Claims fell by 53k from last week and was 38k less than expected. There has been a big discussion of late over the expiration of unemployment insurance and how the recent drop in Continuing Claims is due to people losing it rather than finding a new job. While there is no question benefits are expiring without one finding a job, as evidenced by the rising exhaustion rate, many losing those benefits now started getting them when initial claims were...
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January 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 am
Love charts like this..but it rasises questions…what are they using for “stock market”…S&P500? what are they doing to simulate whatever index they use back to 1870?…The 16 year periodicity is more well defined? It happened twice in a row over 140 years… It’s hard for me to believe the “real total return” never once got outside this uptrend channel in 140 years.
January 2nd, 2009 at 8:49 am
It did twice, 1929 and 1999. And then the upper channel trendline was shifted up to accomodate those peaks
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:18 pm
Fortunately for us the internet archives other predictions by the “cycle” theorists such as this one..
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/2003/1031.html