Super Cycle Market Overview
By Barry Ritholtz - January 2nd, 2009, 7:26AM
Macro Notes
We don’t want your help because maybe we don’t need itPeter Boockvar
While yesterday's US stock market close was poor, Asia and Europe didn't follow today as debt in Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc... rallied, their CDS narrowed and stocks bounced. The Greek finance minister said January tax revenues came in above expectations and that spending was below target for the month and said "that means the deficit reduction for January is well within what we have promised." The euro is rising in turn. Also helping is the story that Trichet is headed to the European Union leaders summit a day early in order to address Greece's problems even as the Greek finance...
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January 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 am
Love charts like this..but it rasises questions…what are they using for “stock market”…S&P500? what are they doing to simulate whatever index they use back to 1870?…The 16 year periodicity is more well defined? It happened twice in a row over 140 years… It’s hard for me to believe the “real total return” never once got outside this uptrend channel in 140 years.
January 2nd, 2009 at 8:49 am
It did twice, 1929 and 1999. And then the upper channel trendline was shifted up to accomodate those peaks
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:18 pm
Fortunately for us the internet archives other predictions by the “cycle” theorists such as this one..
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/2003/1031.html