Super Cycle Market Overview
By Barry Ritholtz - January 2nd, 2009, 7:26AM
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
January 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 am
Love charts like this..but it rasises questions…what are they using for “stock market”…S&P500? what are they doing to simulate whatever index they use back to 1870?…The 16 year periodicity is more well defined? It happened twice in a row over 140 years… It’s hard for me to believe the “real total return” never once got outside this uptrend channel in 140 years.
January 2nd, 2009 at 8:49 am
It did twice, 1929 and 1999. And then the upper channel trendline was shifted up to accomodate those peaks :)
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:18 pm
Fortunately for us the internet archives other predictions by the “cycle” theorists such as this one..
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/2003/1031.html