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Source:
Layoffs Spread to More Sectors of the Economy
CATHERINE RAMPELL
NYT, January 26, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/business/economy/27layoffs.html
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Dollar depreciation leads to higher inflation and ultimately forces foreign creditors to question their rationale and indeed their sanity for continuing purchases of U.S. Treasuries." -Bill Gross
Signs continue that European markets are getting tired. The Spanish and Italian stock markets, big beneficiaries of the sharp decline in their bond yields over the past few months are falling to the lowest since Feb 1. The European bank index is at a 1 1/2 week low after earnings reports from Commerzbank and Credit Ag (RBS bouncing although reporting weaker than expected earnings) were disappointing. This market action is in spite of the German IFO business confidence figure which rose to a 7 month high coming in a touch above expectations and Italian consumer confidence which bounced more than...
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January 28th, 2009 at 9:10 am
OK…and I will explain a little more about why I think the initial claims must be understated:
I posted last week on the enormous difference in the non-seasonally adjusted claims and the seasonally adjusted claims…this is the government website, and the full figures for last week:
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20090066.htm
As you see, the difference in the NSA and the SA claims in just one week is 250k. For the last two weeks, the difference is 600k. My problem is the seasonal adjustment in this climate. We know that there were many fewer retail jobs over the Xmas holiday than normal, and consequently, the post-holiday seasonal adjustment should have been “adjusted” to consider this smaller number. This is well known to be a “jobless recovery”, but my point is that since September and the crying game on tv by Hank and Paul, there weren’t the number of jobs created that one would have expected.
I just don’t think the government is smart enough to have adjusted the seasonal adjustments…and if they are, it would make a better story if they didn’t…
Tomorrow’s numbers I will continue to follow…
January 28th, 2009 at 9:12 am
I think Paul goes by the name Ben…
maybe I was hoping for a Volcker moment…