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	<title>Comments on: Unemployment Rate</title>
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	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/unemployment-rate/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
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		<title>By: Ventura2012</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/unemployment-rate/comment-page-1/#comment-138838</link>
		<dc:creator>Ventura2012</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jan 2009 02:37:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15807#comment-138838</guid>
		<description>@Okie

&quot;It is a better explanation that the neoconservatives want government to fail — so it does. The neoconservatives and Libertarians could be thought to say: “I believe that government is corrupt, incompetent, inefficient and ineffective. Elect me, and I will prove it to you.”

What we have seen is something closer to sabotage than incompetence.&quot;


No libertarian wants govt to fail, we just want it out of our private lives and out of the private market.  Libertarians say it is incompetent, inefficient and ineffect, elect me and I will shrink it.

&quot;The Constitution of the United States of America

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare….

While the Supreme Court ruled early on that the Preamble was not part of the Constitution, it is clear that the founding fathers always understood that the government would expand as necessary to serve the interests of the people. Creating an SEC is part of the “police powers” inherent in government. (What part of “establish justice” do you not understand?) This also goes for the FDA, EPA and a whole host of government agencies that insure our quality of life is maintained.

When I go down to West Virginia as part of my job, I see streams and rivers that have orange water. I was told that comes from the coal companies discharging their waste. I hope we get an EPA under Obama that will end that practice. I don’t care if it does cost me more in taxes. I don’t want to drink that sludge! Maybe you don’t want clean water, but I do. Go back to the time of the founding fathers when there was no EPA? Are you nuts?&quot;

Where does it say in the Constitution that the fruits of ones labor should be transferred to another person?  Please point that out to me.

&quot;You mean they haven’t been funded yet. The numbers that you are reading use the liabilities, but not the future funds. They also presume models based on economic growth that are below historical norms. (It also presumes that tax rates will stay the same as under Bush. I think this really proves that we cannot afford such low tax rates on the wealthy.) The reality is that we cannot effectively predict the costs 40 years out anymore than we can predict the stock market 40 years out here. Social Security is actually running a surplus and has been for 30 years. It is only because the money has been allocated to other things that any problem could be argued to exist. If there is any problem, we will be able to fix it.&quot;

We cannot afford low tax rates on the wealthy, lol.  Tell me my friend what % of taxes do the top 5% pay.  The money put into social security is gone and will not come back.  I would much rather take the extra 6.3% I put in as well as my employer does and invest or have to do with that as I please.  If you think Social Security will be there in 30 years might I interest you in a nice ocean front condo in Indiana I have for sale.  I also know a man who delivers 15% returns every year with an option strategy..might I interest you in that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Okie</p>
<p>&#8220;It is a better explanation that the neoconservatives want government to fail — so it does. The neoconservatives and Libertarians could be thought to say: “I believe that government is corrupt, incompetent, inefficient and ineffective. Elect me, and I will prove it to you.”</p>
<p>What we have seen is something closer to sabotage than incompetence.&#8221;</p>
<p>No libertarian wants govt to fail, we just want it out of our private lives and out of the private market.  Libertarians say it is incompetent, inefficient and ineffect, elect me and I will shrink it.</p>
<p>&#8220;The Constitution of the United States of America</p>
<p>We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare….</p>
<p>While the Supreme Court ruled early on that the Preamble was not part of the Constitution, it is clear that the founding fathers always understood that the government would expand as necessary to serve the interests of the people. Creating an SEC is part of the “police powers” inherent in government. (What part of “establish justice” do you not understand?) This also goes for the FDA, EPA and a whole host of government agencies that insure our quality of life is maintained.</p>
<p>When I go down to West Virginia as part of my job, I see streams and rivers that have orange water. I was told that comes from the coal companies discharging their waste. I hope we get an EPA under Obama that will end that practice. I don’t care if it does cost me more in taxes. I don’t want to drink that sludge! Maybe you don’t want clean water, but I do. Go back to the time of the founding fathers when there was no EPA? Are you nuts?&#8221;</p>
<p>Where does it say in the Constitution that the fruits of ones labor should be transferred to another person?  Please point that out to me.</p>
<p>&#8220;You mean they haven’t been funded yet. The numbers that you are reading use the liabilities, but not the future funds. They also presume models based on economic growth that are below historical norms. (It also presumes that tax rates will stay the same as under Bush. I think this really proves that we cannot afford such low tax rates on the wealthy.) The reality is that we cannot effectively predict the costs 40 years out anymore than we can predict the stock market 40 years out here. Social Security is actually running a surplus and has been for 30 years. It is only because the money has been allocated to other things that any problem could be argued to exist. If there is any problem, we will be able to fix it.&#8221;</p>
<p>We cannot afford low tax rates on the wealthy, lol.  Tell me my friend what % of taxes do the top 5% pay.  The money put into social security is gone and will not come back.  I would much rather take the extra 6.3% I put in as well as my employer does and invest or have to do with that as I please.  If you think Social Security will be there in 30 years might I interest you in a nice ocean front condo in Indiana I have for sale.  I also know a man who delivers 15% returns every year with an option strategy..might I interest you in that.</p>
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		<title>By: Boo-urns</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/unemployment-rate/comment-page-1/#comment-138742</link>
		<dc:creator>Boo-urns</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 18:23:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15807#comment-138742</guid>
		<description>Ventura,

the SEC worked pretty well for a pretty long period of time.  It certainly provided a stronger and more vibrant capital markets environment in the US than existed prior to the SEC.  

Perhaps coincidentally, the rash of securities frauds began around the time that Reagan&#039;s deregulatory slash-and-burn measures would have started to have taken effect.

And quite frankly, it is pretty mind-boggling to think that a gigantic Ponzi scheme like Madoff could have occurred were it not for a deregulatory-minded SEC.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ventura,</p>
<p>the SEC worked pretty well for a pretty long period of time.  It certainly provided a stronger and more vibrant capital markets environment in the US than existed prior to the SEC.  </p>
<p>Perhaps coincidentally, the rash of securities frauds began around the time that Reagan&#8217;s deregulatory slash-and-burn measures would have started to have taken effect.</p>
<p>And quite frankly, it is pretty mind-boggling to think that a gigantic Ponzi scheme like Madoff could have occurred were it not for a deregulatory-minded SEC.</p>
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		<title>By: Greg0658</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/unemployment-rate/comment-page-1/#comment-138723</link>
		<dc:creator>Greg0658</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 16:14:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15807#comment-138723</guid>
		<description>this is still a great country
Schoolhouse Rock! The Preamble
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADlL6jjYte8</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>this is still a great country<br />
Schoolhouse Rock! The Preamble<br />
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADlL6jjYte8" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADlL6jjYte8</a></p>
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		<title>By: Greg0658</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/unemployment-rate/comment-page-1/#comment-138722</link>
		<dc:creator>Greg0658</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 16:01:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15807#comment-138722</guid>
		<description>OkieLawyer you made me remember a talking point I missed in a post at January 13th, 2009 at 10:36 am in the previous thread

to Big to Fail = to Big to Fight ... then again it&#039;s the flip side to that post ... lifes pro and cons and the balance</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>OkieLawyer you made me remember a talking point I missed in a post at January 13th, 2009 at 10:36 am in the previous thread</p>
<p>to Big to Fail = to Big to Fight &#8230; then again it&#8217;s the flip side to that post &#8230; lifes pro and cons and the balance</p>
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		<title>By: Tom K</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/unemployment-rate/comment-page-1/#comment-138707</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom K</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 14:46:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15807#comment-138707</guid>
		<description>AGG: You have an strange idea of compassion. Voting for bigger government and using the force of law to plunder from one individual in order to give to another isn&#039;t compassion. Spending money you don&#039;t have isn&#039;t compassion either. Giving of your own time and wealth, freely and willingly is compassion. 

OkieLawyer: You&#039;re in denial about the financial status of the big entitlement programs. 

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html
http://finance.senate.gov/hearings/testimony/2008test/020608mltest.pdf</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>AGG: You have an strange idea of compassion. Voting for bigger government and using the force of law to plunder from one individual in order to give to another isn&#8217;t compassion. Spending money you don&#8217;t have isn&#8217;t compassion either. Giving of your own time and wealth, freely and willingly is compassion. </p>
<p>OkieLawyer: You&#8217;re in denial about the financial status of the big entitlement programs. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html</a><br />
<a href="http://finance.senate.gov/hearings/testimony/2008test/020608mltest.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://finance.senate.gov/hearings/testimony/2008test/020608mltest.pdf</a></p>
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		<title>By: gms777</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/unemployment-rate/comment-page-1/#comment-138698</link>
		<dc:creator>gms777</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 14:13:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15807#comment-138698</guid>
		<description>Wire story a few days ago quoted 80 year olds saying that today&#039;s situation wasn&#039;t nearly as bad as the Depression, when they had to go without meals as children.

Yesterday, NYT story re: unemployment in NY state. Said thousands of unemployed people are facing end of benefits (having already been twice extended). A man said he was still eating three meals a day, if you include having a soda (and only a soda) as dinner.

At my daughter&#039;s elementary school, five years ago I rarely, if ever, saw a father on the playground afterschool watching a child. Today. I see 5, 6, 7 fathers hanging out.

Barry, you are a good man, but this thing is bad and getting worse. 

Geez, the roundtable in the new Barron&#039;s has financial wizards talking about Weimar dollars, hyperinflation, gold coins, and even a reference or two to guns.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wire story a few days ago quoted 80 year olds saying that today&#8217;s situation wasn&#8217;t nearly as bad as the Depression, when they had to go without meals as children.</p>
<p>Yesterday, NYT story re: unemployment in NY state. Said thousands of unemployed people are facing end of benefits (having already been twice extended). A man said he was still eating three meals a day, if you include having a soda (and only a soda) as dinner.</p>
<p>At my daughter&#8217;s elementary school, five years ago I rarely, if ever, saw a father on the playground afterschool watching a child. Today. I see 5, 6, 7 fathers hanging out.</p>
<p>Barry, you are a good man, but this thing is bad and getting worse. </p>
<p>Geez, the roundtable in the new Barron&#8217;s has financial wizards talking about Weimar dollars, hyperinflation, gold coins, and even a reference or two to guns.</p>
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		<title>By: OkieLawyer</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/unemployment-rate/comment-page-1/#comment-138687</link>
		<dc:creator>OkieLawyer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 13:19:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15807#comment-138687</guid>
		<description>@Ventura2012:

&lt;i&gt;And institutions that are proven not to work like the SEC are what you want more of giving people a false sense of security.&lt;/i&gt;

It is a better explanation that the neoconservatives &lt;i&gt;want&lt;/i&gt; government to fail -- so it does.  The neoconservatives and Libertarians could be thought to say: &quot;I believe that government is corrupt, incompetent, inefficient and ineffective.  Elect me, and I will prove it to you.&quot;

What we have seen is something closer to &lt;i&gt;sabotage&lt;/i&gt; than incompetence.

&lt;i&gt;When we shrink govt back to levels the constitution intended at that point we could abolish the income tax.&lt;/i&gt;

The Constitution of the United States of America

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, &lt;b&gt;establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare&lt;/b&gt;....

While the Supreme Court ruled early on that the Preamble was not part of the Constitution, it is clear that the founding fathers always understood that the government would expand as necessary to serve the interests of the people.  Creating an SEC is part of the &quot;police powers&quot; inherent in government.  (What part of &quot;establish justice&quot; do you not understand?)  This also goes for the FDA, EPA and a whole host of government agencies that insure our quality of life is maintained.

When I go down to West Virginia as part of my job, I see streams and rivers that have orange water.  I was told that comes from the coal companies discharging their waste.  I hope we get an EPA under Obama that will end that practice.  I don&#039;t care if it does cost me more in taxes.  I don&#039;t want to drink that sludge!  Maybe you don&#039;t want clean water, but I do.  Go back to the time of the founding fathers when there was no EPA?  Are you &lt;i&gt;nuts&lt;/i&gt;?

&lt;i&gt;These programs are insolvent what do you not understand about that, the US govt is on the hook for so many unfunded liabilities it is frightening.&lt;/i&gt;

You mean they haven&#039;t been funded &lt;i&gt;yet&lt;/i&gt;.  The numbers that you are reading use the liabilities, but not the future funds.  They also presume models based on economic growth that are below historical norms.  (It also presumes that tax rates will stay the same as under Bush.  I think this really proves that we cannot afford such low tax rates on the wealthy.)  The reality is that we cannot effectively predict the costs 40 years out anymore than we can predict the stock market 40 years out here.  Social Security is actually running a surplus and has been for 30 years.  It is only because the money has been allocated to other things that any problem could be argued to exist.  If there is any problem, we will be able to fix it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Ventura2012:</p>
<p><i>And institutions that are proven not to work like the SEC are what you want more of giving people a false sense of security.</i></p>
<p>It is a better explanation that the neoconservatives <i>want</i> government to fail &#8212; so it does.  The neoconservatives and Libertarians could be thought to say: &#8220;I believe that government is corrupt, incompetent, inefficient and ineffective.  Elect me, and I will prove it to you.&#8221;</p>
<p>What we have seen is something closer to <i>sabotage</i> than incompetence.</p>
<p><i>When we shrink govt back to levels the constitution intended at that point we could abolish the income tax.</i></p>
<p>The Constitution of the United States of America</p>
<p>We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, <b>establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare</b>&#8230;.</p>
<p>While the Supreme Court ruled early on that the Preamble was not part of the Constitution, it is clear that the founding fathers always understood that the government would expand as necessary to serve the interests of the people.  Creating an SEC is part of the &#8220;police powers&#8221; inherent in government.  (What part of &#8220;establish justice&#8221; do you not understand?)  This also goes for the FDA, EPA and a whole host of government agencies that insure our quality of life is maintained.</p>
<p>When I go down to West Virginia as part of my job, I see streams and rivers that have orange water.  I was told that comes from the coal companies discharging their waste.  I hope we get an EPA under Obama that will end that practice.  I don&#8217;t care if it does cost me more in taxes.  I don&#8217;t want to drink that sludge!  Maybe you don&#8217;t want clean water, but I do.  Go back to the time of the founding fathers when there was no EPA?  Are you <i>nuts</i>?</p>
<p><i>These programs are insolvent what do you not understand about that, the US govt is on the hook for so many unfunded liabilities it is frightening.</i></p>
<p>You mean they haven&#8217;t been funded <i>yet</i>.  The numbers that you are reading use the liabilities, but not the future funds.  They also presume models based on economic growth that are below historical norms.  (It also presumes that tax rates will stay the same as under Bush.  I think this really proves that we cannot afford such low tax rates on the wealthy.)  The reality is that we cannot effectively predict the costs 40 years out anymore than we can predict the stock market 40 years out here.  Social Security is actually running a surplus and has been for 30 years.  It is only because the money has been allocated to other things that any problem could be argued to exist.  If there is any problem, we will be able to fix it.</p>
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		<title>By: constantnormal</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/unemployment-rate/comment-page-1/#comment-138679</link>
		<dc:creator>constantnormal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 09:40:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15807#comment-138679</guid>
		<description>No, we&#039;re not there yet.  But the parallels to all the string-pushing that went on in TGD are ominous.   And as many have already noted, we have the Fall of the Credit Card looming before us.  Also, the Great ARM Scythe of Destruction is still moving forward. 

We are about to enter the next turn of the deflationary wheel, where the economy at large shrinks again, the first wave of layoffs and reductions in orders serving to provoke another of similar scale (percentages) but smaller absolute numbers (&#039;cause there are fewer jobs left to lose). 

It is interesting this time to see the Hoover role played by a politician who styles himself as another Roosevelt.

And rather than another Dust Bowl, this time we could (could, not might or should) see the Yellowstone caldera erupt and bury the Great Plains in a few feet of ash.

The rhymes that history plays are fascintaing to observe and to try and guess just what unexpected Black Swan will crap on us next.  

The more things change ...  b</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No, we&#8217;re not there yet.  But the parallels to all the string-pushing that went on in TGD are ominous.   And as many have already noted, we have the Fall of the Credit Card looming before us.  Also, the Great ARM Scythe of Destruction is still moving forward. </p>
<p>We are about to enter the next turn of the deflationary wheel, where the economy at large shrinks again, the first wave of layoffs and reductions in orders serving to provoke another of similar scale (percentages) but smaller absolute numbers (&#8217;cause there are fewer jobs left to lose). </p>
<p>It is interesting this time to see the Hoover role played by a politician who styles himself as another Roosevelt.</p>
<p>And rather than another Dust Bowl, this time we could (could, not might or should) see the Yellowstone caldera erupt and bury the Great Plains in a few feet of ash.</p>
<p>The rhymes that history plays are fascintaing to observe and to try and guess just what unexpected Black Swan will crap on us next.  </p>
<p>The more things change &#8230;  b</p>
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		<title>By: wisedup</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/unemployment-rate/comment-page-1/#comment-138678</link>
		<dc:creator>wisedup</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 09:17:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15807#comment-138678</guid>
		<description>Ayn Rand is to society as Madoff is to finance.

Eastern Europe sends us 2 rejects, Leo Strauss &amp; Ayn Rand. Upon arriving they size up the rubes and like rug salesmen tell the jerks what they want to hear -- like Greenspan. Hey, its better than actually working for a living.
My hope is that Paulson suddenly decides to leave Washington to find that &quot;secret canyon&quot; real soon. 

Ok, lets get back on thread. The average joe requires 1400 calories per day for long term survival. If he &quot;leaves&quot; the work force for more than a year you can semantically define him as jobless or not -- the definition is not important. What is important is that he is not working, so how does he survive? Given the loss of credit and the drop in lower level salaries (charity from his network), we can say that he has little access to new sources of income. How long will his reserves last?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ayn Rand is to society as Madoff is to finance.</p>
<p>Eastern Europe sends us 2 rejects, Leo Strauss &amp; Ayn Rand. Upon arriving they size up the rubes and like rug salesmen tell the jerks what they want to hear &#8212; like Greenspan. Hey, its better than actually working for a living.<br />
My hope is that Paulson suddenly decides to leave Washington to find that &#8220;secret canyon&#8221; real soon. </p>
<p>Ok, lets get back on thread. The average joe requires 1400 calories per day for long term survival. If he &#8220;leaves&#8221; the work force for more than a year you can semantically define him as jobless or not &#8212; the definition is not important. What is important is that he is not working, so how does he survive? Given the loss of credit and the drop in lower level salaries (charity from his network), we can say that he has little access to new sources of income. How long will his reserves last?</p>
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		<title>By: vaughn</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/unemployment-rate/comment-page-1/#comment-138677</link>
		<dc:creator>vaughn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 09:02:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=15807#comment-138677</guid>
		<description>good job on &quot;To The Point&quot; tonight Barry....wonderful apostasy when you suggested liquidation of the IB&#039;s might have been preferable over the wasted bailout billions</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>good job on &#8220;To The Point&#8221; tonight Barry&#8230;.wonderful apostasy when you suggested liquidation of the IB&#8217;s might have been preferable over the wasted bailout billions</p>
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