Comments on: Well Below Expectations http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/well-below-expectations/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 17:38:10 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Bruce N Tennessee http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/well-below-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-139225 Bruce N Tennessee Thu, 15 Jan 2009 13:28:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16162#comment-139225 The November lows aren't at risk, they should be breached. I posted this last night about the second largest economy, and several sites have it this morning, but to actually read this release, it is almost unbelievable. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a6_u5yK6OksE&refer=economy Japan Machinery Orders Fall by Record 16.2% as Exports Collapse The following: Tokyo Electron Ltd., Japan’s largest maker of semiconductor equipment, last week said orders tumbled 81 percent as chipmakers postponed spending plans. Orders for display- production machinery and solar-panel equipment plummeted to 500 million yen from 57.3 billion yen, the company said. ..How can orders go from 57 billion to 500 million yen? How? and: The world’s second-largest economy may have shrunk as much as 12 percent on an annualized basis last quarter, Barclays Capital predicts, which would be the steepest decline since 1974. Exports plunged 26.7 percent in November, the sharpest decline since comparable data were made available in 1980.... When interest rates are already funtionally zero in Japan, what do you do if your economy is contracting at 12%? I think the future for 2009 will come in well below expectations.... The November lows aren’t at risk, they should be breached. I posted this last night about the second largest economy, and several sites have it this morning, but to actually read this release, it is almost unbelievable.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a6_u5yK6OksE&refer=economy

Japan Machinery Orders Fall by Record 16.2% as Exports Collapse

The following:
Tokyo Electron Ltd., Japan’s largest maker of semiconductor equipment, last week said orders tumbled 81 percent as chipmakers postponed spending plans. Orders for display- production machinery and solar-panel equipment plummeted to 500 million yen from 57.3 billion yen, the company said.

..How can orders go from 57 billion to 500 million yen? How? and:

The world’s second-largest economy may have shrunk as much as 12 percent on an annualized basis last quarter, Barclays Capital predicts, which would be the steepest decline since 1974. Exports plunged 26.7 percent in November, the sharpest decline since comparable data were made available in 1980….

When interest rates are already funtionally zero in Japan, what do you do if your economy is contracting at 12%?

I think the future for 2009 will come in well below expectations….

]]> By: Bruce in Tn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/well-below-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-139219 Bruce in Tn Thu, 15 Jan 2009 12:17:35 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16162#comment-139219 Actually well below expectations is the news from Japan last night, that was horrific. We talked a little about it but just a few things: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a6_u5yK6OksE&refer=economy Tokyo Electron Ltd., Japan’s largest maker of semiconductor equipment, last week said orders tumbled 81 percent as chipmakers postponed spending plans. Orders for display- production machinery and solar-panel equipment plummeted to 500 million yen from 57.3 billion yen, the company said. ....orders fell from 57 billion to 500 million? How in the hell is that possible? and further: The world’s second-largest economy may have shrunk as much as 12 percent on an annualized basis last quarter, Barclays Capital predicts, which would be the steepest decline since 1974. Exports plunged 26.7 percent in November, the sharpest decline since comparable data were made available in 1980, and factory output dropped 8.1 percent, the most in more than a half century. ...the economy contracted at a 12 per cent annual basis? This reads like a Vincent Price script, not an economic report...and this is the second largest economy in the world. Can you imagine what the Chinese are facing? Actually well below expectations is the news from Japan last night, that was horrific. We talked a little about it but just a few things:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a6_u5yK6OksE&refer=economy

Tokyo Electron Ltd., Japan’s largest maker of semiconductor equipment, last week said orders tumbled 81 percent as chipmakers postponed spending plans. Orders for display- production machinery and solar-panel equipment plummeted to 500 million yen from 57.3 billion yen, the company said.

….orders fell from 57 billion to 500 million? How in the hell is that possible? and further:

The world’s second-largest economy may have shrunk as much as 12 percent on an annualized basis last quarter, Barclays Capital predicts, which would be the steepest decline since 1974. Exports plunged 26.7 percent in November, the sharpest decline since comparable data were made available in 1980, and factory output dropped 8.1 percent, the most in more than a half century.

…the economy contracted at a 12 per cent annual basis? This reads like a Vincent Price script, not an economic report…and this is the second largest economy in the world.

Can you imagine what the Chinese are facing?

]]> By: bondjel http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/well-below-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-139208 bondjel Thu, 15 Jan 2009 09:13:34 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=16162#comment-139208 There is one acid test for the person who holds such views: Can they with Complete Honesty say they would have said the exact same thing in exactly the same way if the Treasury Secretary Designate had been a Republican nominated by John Mc Cain? If they can't answer that question "yes", their opinion on Geithner is worthless. There is one acid test for the person who holds such views: Can they with Complete Honesty say they would have said the exact same thing in exactly the same way if the Treasury Secretary Designate had been a Republican nominated by John Mc Cain? If they can’t answer that question “yes”, their opinion on Geithner is worthless.

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