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	<title>Comments on: 50% Dow Retracement: 1982 &#8211; 2009</title>
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	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/50-dow-retracement-1982-2009/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
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		<title>By: Mark E Hoffer</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/50-dow-retracement-1982-2009/comment-page-2/#comment-148396</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark E Hoffer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 13:01:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19921#comment-148396</guid>
		<description>Xenophon,

to your point: &quot;The last 30 years has seen an astonishing transformation of America. We may have to face the fact that there are underlying structural changes in our demography and social attitudes which may preclude our ever regaining the edge we once held.&quot;

these lovely people decided to announce their presence in &#039;73..
see: &quot;The Trilateral Commission was formed in 1973 by private citizens of Japan, Europe (European Union countries), and North America (United States and Canada) to foster closer cooperation among these core democratic industrialized areas of the world with shared leadership responsibilities in the wider international system. Originally established for three years, our work has been renewed for successive triennia (three-year periods), most recently for a triennium to be completed in 2009.
...

Two strong convictions guide our thinking for the 2006-2009 triennium. First, the Trilateral Commission remains as important as ever in helping our countries fulfill their shared leadership responsibilities in the wider international system and, second, its framework needs to be widened to reflect broader changes in the world. Thus, the Japan Group has become a Pacific Asian Group, and Mexican members have been added to the North American Group. The European Group continues to widen in line with the enlargement of the EU. We are also continuing in this triennium our practice of inviting a number of participants from other key areas.

The “growing interdependence” that so impressed the founders of the Trilateral Commission in the early 1970s is deepening into “globalization.” The need for shared thinking and leadership by the Trilateral countries, who (along with the principal international organizations) remain the primary anchors of the wider international system, has not diminished but, if anything, intensified. At the same time, their leadership must change to take into account the dramatic transformation of the international system. As relations with other countries become more mature—and power more diffuse—the leadership tasks of the original Trilateral countries need to be carried out with others to an increasing extent.&quot;
http://www.trilateral.org/about.htm

Their fellow travelers are talking, for publication, about:
• How the Financial Crisis Will Weaken the West
by Roger C. Altman

The financial crisis has called into serious question the credibility of western governments and may precipitate an eastward shift of power.

 Listen to this essay on CFR.org »

• A New Trade Agenda
by Mattoo &amp; Subramanian

Trade problems are an underlying cause of the financial crisis. To truly revive the world economy, a new trade consensus is necessary.

• Who Broke Global Finance?
by Harold James

The current economic crisis may have one winner: the Chinese financial model, which — together with the IMF — holds the keys to fixing the problem.
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/

and, yes, correlation not, necessarily, = to causation</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Xenophon,</p>
<p>to your point: &#8220;The last 30 years has seen an astonishing transformation of America. We may have to face the fact that there are underlying structural changes in our demography and social attitudes which may preclude our ever regaining the edge we once held.&#8221;</p>
<p>these lovely people decided to announce their presence in &#8217;73..<br />
see: &#8220;The Trilateral Commission was formed in 1973 by private citizens of Japan, Europe (European Union countries), and North America (United States and Canada) to foster closer cooperation among these core democratic industrialized areas of the world with shared leadership responsibilities in the wider international system. Originally established for three years, our work has been renewed for successive triennia (three-year periods), most recently for a triennium to be completed in 2009.<br />
&#8230;</p>
<p>Two strong convictions guide our thinking for the 2006-2009 triennium. First, the Trilateral Commission remains as important as ever in helping our countries fulfill their shared leadership responsibilities in the wider international system and, second, its framework needs to be widened to reflect broader changes in the world. Thus, the Japan Group has become a Pacific Asian Group, and Mexican members have been added to the North American Group. The European Group continues to widen in line with the enlargement of the EU. We are also continuing in this triennium our practice of inviting a number of participants from other key areas.</p>
<p>The “growing interdependence” that so impressed the founders of the Trilateral Commission in the early 1970s is deepening into “globalization.” The need for shared thinking and leadership by the Trilateral countries, who (along with the principal international organizations) remain the primary anchors of the wider international system, has not diminished but, if anything, intensified. At the same time, their leadership must change to take into account the dramatic transformation of the international system. As relations with other countries become more mature—and power more diffuse—the leadership tasks of the original Trilateral countries need to be carried out with others to an increasing extent.&#8221;<br />
<a href="http://www.trilateral.org/about.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.trilateral.org/about.htm</a></p>
<p>Their fellow travelers are talking, for publication, about:<br />
• How the Financial Crisis Will Weaken the West<br />
by Roger C. Altman</p>
<p>The financial crisis has called into serious question the credibility of western governments and may precipitate an eastward shift of power.</p>
<p> Listen to this essay on CFR.org »</p>
<p>• A New Trade Agenda<br />
by Mattoo &amp; Subramanian</p>
<p>Trade problems are an underlying cause of the financial crisis. To truly revive the world economy, a new trade consensus is necessary.</p>
<p>• Who Broke Global Finance?<br />
by Harold James</p>
<p>The current economic crisis may have one winner: the Chinese financial model, which — together with the IMF — holds the keys to fixing the problem.<br />
<a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.org/" rel="nofollow">http://www.foreignaffairs.org/</a></p>
<p>and, yes, correlation not, necessarily, = to causation</p>
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		<title>By: Che Stadium</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/50-dow-retracement-1982-2009/comment-page-2/#comment-148390</link>
		<dc:creator>Che Stadium</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 12:06:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19921#comment-148390</guid>
		<description>@Xenophon

I think you can add in the massive subsidies that will be paid to legacy industries.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Xenophon</p>
<p>I think you can add in the massive subsidies that will be paid to legacy industries.</p>
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		<title>By: Xenophon</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/50-dow-retracement-1982-2009/comment-page-2/#comment-148367</link>
		<dc:creator>Xenophon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 03:49:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19921#comment-148367</guid>
		<description>Even when things are &quot;turned around&quot;, who is going to go back into this market.  This is like asking a child who just burned his fingers to go over and start a fire in the fireplace.  The &quot;recovery&quot; is apt to be tepid and strung out for maybe decades.

Another thing that will be dragging this country down is the size of our government.  There are to0 many dependent persons getting government checks, whether through welfare, as bureaucrats, or as affirmative action hires.  The last 30 years has seen an astonishing transformation of America.  We may have to face the fact that there are underlying structural changes in our demography and social attitudes which may preclude our ever regaining the edge we once held.  Time will tell.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Even when things are &#8220;turned around&#8221;, who is going to go back into this market.  This is like asking a child who just burned his fingers to go over and start a fire in the fireplace.  The &#8220;recovery&#8221; is apt to be tepid and strung out for maybe decades.</p>
<p>Another thing that will be dragging this country down is the size of our government.  There are to0 many dependent persons getting government checks, whether through welfare, as bureaucrats, or as affirmative action hires.  The last 30 years has seen an astonishing transformation of America.  We may have to face the fact that there are underlying structural changes in our demography and social attitudes which may preclude our ever regaining the edge we once held.  Time will tell.</p>
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		<title>By: arbitrader</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/50-dow-retracement-1982-2009/comment-page-2/#comment-148362</link>
		<dc:creator>arbitrader</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 03:31:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19921#comment-148362</guid>
		<description>@worth:

I didn&#039;t cite a law, just a fact which happens to be a mathematical certainty.  Sorry if that phrase rubs you the wrong way.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@worth:</p>
<p>I didn&#8217;t cite a law, just a fact which happens to be a mathematical certainty.  Sorry if that phrase rubs you the wrong way.</p>
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		<title>By: Clem Stone</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/50-dow-retracement-1982-2009/comment-page-2/#comment-148354</link>
		<dc:creator>Clem Stone</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 02:54:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19921#comment-148354</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s even worse than that!   The earliest rendition of the DJIA was created by Neanderthal Man as a method of trading wooly mammoth hides.   This early &quot;Dow&quot; index fluctuated between 0 and 1 back then.  We have retraced 50% of the entire move, effectively erasing 20,000 years of financial gains.   My God, we&#039;ve got to wait another 18,000 years before the 1st Coming!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s even worse than that!   The earliest rendition of the DJIA was created by Neanderthal Man as a method of trading wooly mammoth hides.   This early &#8220;Dow&#8221; index fluctuated between 0 and 1 back then.  We have retraced 50% of the entire move, effectively erasing 20,000 years of financial gains.   My God, we&#8217;ve got to wait another 18,000 years before the 1st Coming!</p>
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		<title>By: Che Stadium</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/50-dow-retracement-1982-2009/comment-page-2/#comment-148347</link>
		<dc:creator>Che Stadium</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 02:39:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19921#comment-148347</guid>
		<description>So now can we admit fiat currency doesn’t work? ;^)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So now can we admit fiat currency doesn’t work? ;^)</p>
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		<title>By: How the Common Man Sees It</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/50-dow-retracement-1982-2009/comment-page-2/#comment-148337</link>
		<dc:creator>How the Common Man Sees It</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 01:45:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19921#comment-148337</guid>
		<description>That&#039;s pretty much the baby boomers....charted. I just hope the chart doesn&#039;t die with them. Some of us still have to trade when they are gone.I assume the second shoulder will be the USG trying to solve for the boomers. My gut tells me we won&#039;t see that second shoulder get built....unless someone invents something. Like trees that grow to the sky</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s pretty much the baby boomers&#8230;.charted. I just hope the chart doesn&#8217;t die with them. Some of us still have to trade when they are gone.I assume the second shoulder will be the USG trying to solve for the boomers. My gut tells me we won&#8217;t see that second shoulder get built&#8230;.unless someone invents something. Like trees that grow to the sky</p>
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		<title>By: scorpio</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/50-dow-retracement-1982-2009/comment-page-2/#comment-148334</link>
		<dc:creator>scorpio</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 01:25:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19921#comment-148334</guid>
		<description>i would really like to see some talk about S&amp;P eps and p/e multiples IN RECESSION. what&#039;s the average? i heard the clowns CNBC yday morning spouting &quot;well if eps low then u have to put a high multiple on them&quot;, when in fact true bottoms are made by people putting low fear-based multiples on REAL and possible recurring LOW EPS. my recollection is 1980-1982 (which we will beat handily as GDP destruction, both here and abroad) averaged 7-10 X throughout.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i would really like to see some talk about S&amp;P eps and p/e multiples IN RECESSION. what&#8217;s the average? i heard the clowns CNBC yday morning spouting &#8220;well if eps low then u have to put a high multiple on them&#8221;, when in fact true bottoms are made by people putting low fear-based multiples on REAL and possible recurring LOW EPS. my recollection is 1980-1982 (which we will beat handily as GDP destruction, both here and abroad) averaged 7-10 X throughout.</p>
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		<title>By: worth</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/50-dow-retracement-1982-2009/comment-page-2/#comment-148315</link>
		<dc:creator>worth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Feb 2009 23:23:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19921#comment-148315</guid>
		<description>@ arbitrader:

I wasn&#039;t familiar with the universal accepted law of &quot;by mathematical certainty,&quot; but now that I am, it seems like a good candidate to explain lots of numerical phenomena.  Thanks!

Also, re: supply side economics, and specifically the resultant reduction of personal income tax rates, I submit that although I&#039;d personally rather pay 30% than something much higher than that, it would clearly incent me at a corporate officer level to keep corporate profit in the corporation at, say, a 35% corporate tax rate rather than disbursing it to executives at a 50-70% personal income tax rate.  In other words, when personal tax rates were much higher, you didn&#039;t see 8- and 9-figure compensation packages being doled out like you do now.  The name of the game is ALWAYS, first and foremost, tax avoidance, so if you want to limit executive compensation, just friggin&#039; jack that upper tier of personal income tax.  Every single one of these &quot;bailout&quot; recipients would be far, far better off right now if they had not paid hundreds of billions of dollars to their executives in compensation over the past couple of decades.  And so would America.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ arbitrader:</p>
<p>I wasn&#8217;t familiar with the universal accepted law of &#8220;by mathematical certainty,&#8221; but now that I am, it seems like a good candidate to explain lots of numerical phenomena.  Thanks!</p>
<p>Also, re: supply side economics, and specifically the resultant reduction of personal income tax rates, I submit that although I&#8217;d personally rather pay 30% than something much higher than that, it would clearly incent me at a corporate officer level to keep corporate profit in the corporation at, say, a 35% corporate tax rate rather than disbursing it to executives at a 50-70% personal income tax rate.  In other words, when personal tax rates were much higher, you didn&#8217;t see 8- and 9-figure compensation packages being doled out like you do now.  The name of the game is ALWAYS, first and foremost, tax avoidance, so if you want to limit executive compensation, just friggin&#8217; jack that upper tier of personal income tax.  Every single one of these &#8220;bailout&#8221; recipients would be far, far better off right now if they had not paid hundreds of billions of dollars to their executives in compensation over the past couple of decades.  And so would America.</p>
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		<title>By: arbitrader</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/50-dow-retracement-1982-2009/comment-page-2/#comment-148306</link>
		<dc:creator>arbitrader</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Feb 2009 22:06:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=19921#comment-148306</guid>
		<description>Just thought I would point out that if the index has given up 50% from its high then by mathematical certainty it will also have retraced atleast 50%+ from any starting point in the past that you choose (unless you can find a negative starting point).  Thus it has retraced 50% of the move from the beginning of the stock market as well.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just thought I would point out that if the index has given up 50% from its high then by mathematical certainty it will also have retraced atleast 50%+ from any starting point in the past that you choose (unless you can find a negative starting point).  Thus it has retraced 50% of the move from the beginning of the stock market as well.</p>
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