Comments on: Capitulation? Hardly http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/capitulation-hardly-2/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 14:38:36 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: DiggidyDan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/capitulation-hardly-2/comment-page-2/#comment-148530 DiggidyDan Wed, 25 Feb 2009 22:33:38 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20057#comment-148530 @ Ben http://mla.homeunix.com/q-ratio/ http://www.smithers.co.uk/faqs.php @ Ben

http://mla.homeunix.com/q-ratio/
http://www.smithers.co.uk/faqs.php

]]> By: Ben http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/capitulation-hardly-2/comment-page-2/#comment-148508 Ben Wed, 25 Feb 2009 21:08:22 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20057#comment-148508 I think that the people posting here have some misconceptions. I'm not saying this is the bottom. But if you go back in history, the following IS present at the bottom: There are bullish people calling the bottom. There is some good news. It is certainly not all good news, but there are some modest signs like auto sales no longer declining and commoditiy prices stabilizing. There are low inventory levels in general. Valuations are low and at secular bear market lows the Q-ratio is usually around 0.3 (this measures replacement value of the assets of the businesses traded in the market). There is a very good book called Anatomy of a Bear Market Bottom that I reccomend that goes through this. If anyone knows what the Q-ratio is now btw, I'd love to look at that, not sure how its calculated. I think that the people posting here have some misconceptions. I’m not saying this is the bottom. But if you go back in history, the following IS present at the bottom:
There are bullish people calling the bottom.
There is some good news. It is certainly not all good news, but there are some modest signs like auto sales no longer declining and commoditiy prices stabilizing. There are low inventory levels in general.
Valuations are low and at secular bear market lows the Q-ratio is usually around 0.3 (this measures replacement value of the assets of the businesses traded in the market).
There is a very good book called Anatomy of a Bear Market Bottom that I reccomend that goes through this. If anyone knows what the Q-ratio is now btw, I’d love to look at that, not sure how its calculated.

]]> By: Greg0658 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/capitulation-hardly-2/comment-page-1/#comment-148498 Greg0658 Wed, 25 Feb 2009 20:13:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20057#comment-148498 on definitions: when CNBC says gasoline is going bullish .. does that mean the price is rising for the comodity? isn't that bearish for the consumer and America? who are they rooting for ... maybe I need to lobby Comcast for ConsumerNBC in my channel lineup on definitions:
when CNBC says gasoline is going bullish .. does that mean the price is rising for the comodity?
isn’t that bearish for the consumer and America?
who are they rooting for … maybe I need to lobby Comcast for ConsumerNBC in my channel lineup

]]> By: Porsche87 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/capitulation-hardly-2/comment-page-1/#comment-148470 Porsche87 Wed, 25 Feb 2009 17:45:01 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20057#comment-148470 I think Bernanke is right, the economy will start to recover in the second half of the year. With every central bank and government throwing everything they have at economic stimulus, it has to move back up. I think they will also figure out a way to get credit to unqualified buyers yet again. Then, in 2010 or 2011, the second shoe will drop as it becomes obvious that the stimulus simply propped up an unsustainable economic model and no credit worthy buyers exist to keep the ball rolling. That is when the world economy will really collapse. Short term - cars, big screen TVs and alcohol. Long term - guns, gold and food. I think Bernanke is right, the economy will start to recover in the second half of the year. With every central bank and government throwing everything they have at economic stimulus, it has to move back up. I think they will also figure out a way to get credit to unqualified buyers yet again. Then, in 2010 or 2011, the second shoe will drop as it becomes obvious that the stimulus simply propped up an unsustainable economic model and no credit worthy buyers exist to keep the ball rolling. That is when the world economy will really collapse.

Short term – cars, big screen TVs and alcohol. Long term – guns, gold and food.

]]> By: BG http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/capitulation-hardly-2/comment-page-1/#comment-148469 BG Wed, 25 Feb 2009 17:32:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20057#comment-148469 Give us a bottle of whatever Bernanke is drinking. Give us a bottle of whatever Bernanke is drinking.

]]> By: d4winds http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/capitulation-hardly-2/comment-page-1/#comment-148462 d4winds Wed, 25 Feb 2009 17:11:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20057#comment-148462 Dead cat bounce + Bernanke said that if do everything perfectly and all goes exactly right, we're out of the woods next year = one day rally Dead cat bounce + Bernanke said that if do everything perfectly and all goes exactly right, we’re out of the woods next year

= one day rally

]]> By: mayorofmayberry http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/capitulation-hardly-2/comment-page-1/#comment-148458 mayorofmayberry Wed, 25 Feb 2009 16:47:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20057#comment-148458 BR: Its much worse than that. The money you put into this account in 1997 is breakeven. Everything since then — money invested at higher levels — is at a loss . . . I'll say. By my calculation, if you had put $100 a month in the Vanguard S&P fund at the beginning of every month since January 1995 , your $17,000 invested would be worth approx. $15,400 after yesterday's magnificent runup. Lots of profit-taking today I see. BR: Its much worse than that. The money you put into this account in 1997 is breakeven.

Everything since then — money invested at higher levels — is at a loss . . .

I’ll say. By my calculation, if you had put $100 a month in the Vanguard S&P fund at the beginning of every month since January 1995 , your $17,000 invested would be worth approx. $15,400 after yesterday’s magnificent runup. Lots of profit-taking today I see.

]]> By: Bob_in_MA http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/capitulation-hardly-2/comment-page-1/#comment-148447 Bob_in_MA Wed, 25 Feb 2009 15:49:45 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20057#comment-148447 Yeah, great rally. If you blinked, you missed it. Yeah, great rally. If you blinked, you missed it.

]]> By: BG http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/capitulation-hardly-2/comment-page-1/#comment-148445 BG Wed, 25 Feb 2009 15:40:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20057#comment-148445 It appears the Kumbaya Fest from yesterday is now over. Please return to normal programming...... It appears the Kumbaya Fest from yesterday is now over. Please return to normal programming……

]]> By: Greg0658 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/capitulation-hardly-2/comment-page-1/#comment-148436 Greg0658 Wed, 25 Feb 2009 15:12:40 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=20057#comment-148436 Capitulation .. Retreat ..Defeat Wash .. Rinse .. Repeat I feel like my/our religion has been used against us. Forgive one another. Turn the other cheek. Live by the sword, die by the sword. Man vs man .. family vs family .. community vs community .. corporation vs corporation .. country vs country .. industry vs industry .. super corporation vs all MarkH .. a tribe begins @ 2 families in partnership ... tribes grow in strength with the more able bodies in its partnership ... (advance that to the web dictionary .. please .. the magic word) imo .. All these goings on is paybacks of Business/Capism. Blue collar wanted the good life. White collar jobs depend on stifling that. Corporate whites benefit from growing the sales base as well as stifling the blue. Along comes globalization via oil & machine. ... spins outta control (from a country pov) classic history Now it seems the advice for me from my favored leader is ... suck it up, hang in there .. go back to school, get an enhanced brain .. its up to you to help your country survive what else can the Puppet do or say? yep "Stifle it Edith" carryover from the past president .. make babies .. go shopping .. get your adversaries before they get you (sounds like a Conan quote) both ideologies work in the end .. because everything always works itself out .. ... from a big picture pov classic Capism ... classic nature do I sound like capitulation? ps - since I believe in my religion .. um .. stop end trans Capitulation .. Retreat ..Defeat
Wash .. Rinse .. Repeat

I feel like my/our religion has been used against us. Forgive one another. Turn the other cheek. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Man vs man .. family vs family .. community vs community .. corporation vs corporation .. country vs country .. industry vs industry .. super corporation vs all

MarkH .. a tribe begins @ 2 families in partnership … tribes grow in strength with the more able bodies in its partnership … (advance that to the web dictionary .. please .. the magic word)

imo .. All these goings on is paybacks of Business/Capism. Blue collar wanted the good life. White collar jobs depend on stifling that. Corporate whites benefit from growing the sales base as well as stifling the blue. Along comes globalization via oil & machine.
… spins outta control (from a country pov)

classic history

Now it seems the advice for me from my favored leader is … suck it up, hang in there .. go back to school, get an enhanced brain .. its up to you to help your country survive

what else can the Puppet do or say?
yep
“Stifle it Edith”

carryover from the past president .. make babies .. go shopping .. get your adversaries before they get you (sounds like a Conan quote)

both ideologies work in the end .. because everything always works itself out ..
… from a big picture pov
classic Capism … classic nature

do I sound like capitulation?

ps – since I believe in my religion .. um .. stop end trans

]]>