Che Stadium: 1) Did the Leap Far? 2) At somepoint in the past, every place practiced local production if only because of the limitations of transport technology at that time. Logic tells us that.

It does feel like playing with fire to press the short side from here, or at least it seems there will be better levels to be short from going forward.

I cannot directly quote Prechter, however everything I have read on him suggests the view is that we are finishing primary 1 down in Cycle C. Perhaps others can confirm/expand on that.

The prospect of a 61.8 retrace of gains from 32 to 2000 is sobering! My basement is devoid of any sort of stockpile other than cobwebs and 1/2 empty paint cans…..

Thanks again A.T. for the market panoramic.

Whoa. If he thinks what we just saw was only initial Primary Wave 1 down, then it’s a dark forecast indeed! I’m really not sure what his exact count is, but I think he’s counting the move down starting in 2007 as the dramatic C wave down that connects the 2000-2002 (A Wave down) and the 2002-2007 (B Wave down).

On the DJIA, the whole pattern from the 2000 highs is an “expanded flat” or an “irregular correction.” I have a few targets for the move between 6800 and 5900. So, if I were trading a really large Spec book I would probably suggest covering 70-80% of the shorts as well. The risk/reward down here is now favoring some sort of severe snapback rally. We’re looking at probably another 10-15% down from here, but would you want to press that trade when you’re staring at the distinct possibility of a 30-40% snapback?

595 should really hold on the SP500. That is a MAJOR, MAJOR support level and clear support zone as the 61.8% retracement of the ENTIRE 1932-2000 Bull Market. If that level doesn’t hold, then I would have to strongly recommend stockpiling guns, bullets, canned foods, gasoline, etc….

He maintains stocks are still very overvalued by all measures, and I believe him. However I believe his Wave count has us finishing up Primary wave 1 down, and if that is the case Primary wave 2 should provide an intermediate rally within an overall G.S. Bear.

Do you see this as a likely scenario as well AT?

SB? even if we do ultimately crash to 500 on the SPX?

I could see a sharp fierce rally up from anywhere between 670 and 720 lasting multiple mos, followed by another collapse once folks realize there is no recovery this yr or next.

Maybe it’s time to start necklacing our bankers

http://cronkite.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/south_africa_execution_by_necklacing_13.jpg

Hyperinflation following hard on the heels of the drecession is what will put this in the Economic Hall of Fame.

@Avl Dao: There was already something tried along the lines of “promoting local production across all 50 states, depending on their competitive advantages, and promote regional economic networks internally”. It was called the Great Leap Forward.

http://financialrealityrevisited.blogspot.com/