Hey kids, its time for a Thursday nite open thread.
Anything goes, no subject off limits — the only requirements being that comments are intelligent or informative or amusing.
What say ye?
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Putting aside its incredible product line and pipeline of more, its still attractive valuation relative to earnings, and its $100 per share of cash that may be used for a dividend soon, Apple's stock has gone parabolic. And, parabolic moves always end one way, back to the place where the parabolic move began. Now, AAPL can of course power higher to who knows where in this move but the largest market cap stock in the world has now entered a tenuous phase, strictly technically speaking. But I digress. German investor confidence, the ZEW, in the next 6 months rose back...
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February 19th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
The savage losses of individual investors at the hands of Wall Street reiterate this is a game of fools. When will America learn? you got screwed just like the Gipsy pickpocket did you at the fair.
Florida Real Estate Blog
February 19th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
“….you got screwed just like the Gipsy pickpocket did you at the fair.”
Not if you’re short equities and long gold… ;-)
Barry, Is this a classic Dow Theory confirmation episode? The transportations are also at new lows…
~~~
BR: I was never a huge Dow Theory adherent.
Michael Kahn at Barron’s writes tonite: Be Leery of Dow Theory
February 19th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
We broke the 2002 low, it feels like the 1932 low
February 19th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
Kudlow should re-invent himself as a populist watchdog who pushes to get guys like Madoff or allegedly Stanford thrown in jail. I actually like that Larry.
This Stanford guy was very brazen if he is indeed a fraud…very out in the open. All predictable, after Bernie started this off. This all will put the final nail in the coffin of the hedge fund industry and they will sell equities at firesale prices…it will be as if the stock market is foreclosed on. There is no bottom for the market…and I mean NONE. Given the coming depression, housing debacle, record corporate spreads, plummeting earnings, retiring boomers, frauds, etc., we must see all-time low valuations. Slap a P/E of 7 on $35 earnings and the S&P trades at 245.
February 19th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
Seeing GE and Wells Fargo at such low levels should make younger investors salivate. Unfortunately, the people who have the money to invest are spooked and waiting on the sidelines. No amount of prodding or stimulus seems to convince them to get back in the pool.
The recession started in Dec 2007. By June 2008, the stock market will probably increase. For now, volatility is the name of the game. It’s unfortunate, because the blue chips are out there at rock bottom prices. It’s almost like being the prettiest woman at a gay bar–sure, you know you look good, but your target audience doesn’t care. Am I right, Barry?
Disclosure: long WFC and GE.
February 19th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
Seems like we (US, Europe) are heading into a Japan like multi year slowdown. The US consumer is dead and has no option but to SAVE.
February 19th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
auden5, might be time to dump the WFC. You have conservative republicans calling for the nationalization of the banks…
February 19th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
According to the DOW theory, today’s DJIA close has now confirmed the low in the Transportation average; thus, out of all equities.
February 19th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
While consumers are fighting their way out of mortgage loan difficultiess, it seems that the next big problem area will be credit cards. It seems that both Capital One Bank and Discover Card are making HUGE interest rate hikes to their customers irregardless of credit history. Capital One (who received our TARP money) is now hiking rates on good customers from 9% to 15.9% and 11% to 17.9% wth no recourse except payoff or cancel the card. Discover is similarly raising their rates from 7% to 11% with similar recourse. I have never experienced this kind of rate hikes for good customers. For customers with large balances, this creates substantial increases in the finance charges. Previously, all one had to do was change cards. But with the probability that all banks will be upping rates, this may not ba a viable option. So, as the banks cave in to Washington about aiding mortgagees, they at the same time will try to gouge their credit card customers.
A lot of good the congress is. They pass a credit card bill and give the banks 18 months to gouge everyone before the law takes effect. We need more bankers to run the country!!
February 19th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Rick Santelli is the man; it’s good that people are finally giving him his props.
Obama’s “plans” are absolute trash.
February 19th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Barry,
A while back I believe you posted some charts of all of the level three assets across the financial and insurance industries. But I haven’t seen those updated in a long time. One of these days could you post a refresh?
I know I’d really appreciate it!!
February 19th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Triage has to happen in the financial sector, lest the market kills everything first. Right now, many but not all banks are infected with a terminal disease. Let’s stop pretending and euthanize them now before they really do infect everything else… Not EVERYTHING is sick….. at least not yet.
HCF
February 19th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
BR, save the last shot for me!
February 19th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
Stop calling us kids! I’m the only kid in here.
P.S. How do I change my ridiculous password on this thing?
February 19th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Dow Theory triggers at -50%….that’s what you call a lagging indicator.
February 19th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Consider for example, the price of an F1 Ferrari Coupe – MSRP $312k. However, if Countrywide Ferrari Finance suddenly says they will finance up to 120% of the value with an interest only loan over 15 years with neg amortization and a monthly payment of just $365 through 2014, guess what happens?
DEMAND SOARS and people that used to buy Hyundai’s are lining up to buy Ferrari’s. The going price jumps from $312k to $1.1 million because of demand and cheap financing. If demand suddenly slips because of the stock market, job market or because we got 1.3 cm of snow in NYC — the price suddenly falls to $850k. Should we intervene to prevent millions of Americans from losing their Ferrari’s? Of course not. They made a flawed financial decision based on poor judgement and loose lending terms.
Now insert a 4 bdrm, 1,500 sq ft ranch in Phoenix for Ferrari’s in the paragraph above. Happy days!
Separately, I always find this period of the year very interesting. It’s too early to hear warning about Q1, but companies will start doing stealth warnings (stop returning calls, the words remain the same from the CEO but the tone changes, etc).
February 19th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Paul Jones, yes, Santelli was the man today. But it’s short-sighted to say it’s only Obama, or that it was only Bush. The banking oligarchs took us down this road and they’re still calling the shots.
February 19th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
Looks like a fair amount of panic in the air. Everyone griping about this plan and that plan, but offering no solutions. That is fear. Also a lot of Santelli like wack outs on the blogs, etc. This tells me that they ae experiencing bad trading days and are firing at all targets. Couldn’t be them. When there are no clear solutions, what can hold the markets up?
February 19th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Regarding Dow Theory sell signal:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123507151266125321.html
“Be Leery of Dow Theory “
February 19th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
“Dow Theory triggers at -50%….that’s what you call a lagging indicator”
lol. No, it was reconfirmed. At least I don’t have to listen to any more bullish bull from Richard Russell’s newsletter. :D
February 19th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
How about crash the Ferrari (i.e. burn the house) and collect the insurance proceeds. Maybe that will be the next new wave. Which gets me to thinking about the insurance value of my house. Is it dropping? If so, why aren’t my rates dropping?
February 19th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
Just saw this posted in the comments over at CR.
Ten years ago this week…
http://11.media.tumblr.com/2m8BXUfrik3y5ec8y8MX8Z7uo1_500.jpg
February 19th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
I don’t think the extent that rising real estate prices backstopped the collectibility of credit card debt has been fully appreciated. I think the major credit card banks will be utterly destroyed. The poor just default on debt, it’s the middle class who files bankruptcy and it was thought that the 2005 reforms had them trapped. But guess what? With no equity in your house and an inability to move, and an inability to borrow on the home to pay the debt, and 401k money shielded from creditors, what leverage do creditors really have? Wage garnishment? OK, then I’ll file bankruptcy if you make me, then I’ll be able to lien strip the mortgage (ch13,soon) or wipe out the debt (ch7) anyway. This has a long ways to play out.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
how long’s it been since dow jones made a change to the djia composition?…..at least a year ago, no? geez you’ve got 4 stocks that need to be tossed NOW and another 4 or 5 that look ripe in the next month or so. how distorted are they going to let this thing get and does anyone know if its been allowed to get this bad anytime in history?
February 19th, 2009 at 8:07 pm
@ Clem Stone – I hear you on homeowner’s insurance. The replacement cost per square foot is down substantially from last year when copper, plywood, and sheetrock were soaring. Combine that with falling labor costs and I argued with my agent that my replacement cost could be down as much at 20% from last year and thus, I should lower my insured value.
He hurried off to another client before I could get a straight answer on what it would do to my premiums if I lowered my coverage (all other things equal).
February 19th, 2009 at 8:10 pm
Picked up some MON and PBR (and more MOS) over the past couple of days preparing for re-flation if/when it happens. Still sticking with my QID, SRS, EEV, and FAZ, although I lightened up a bit on the last one yesterday.
I realized something about myself today. Since I finally switched from CNBC to Bloomberg last week, I no longer find myself muttering obsenities at the TV. It’s like I’ve been cured of CNBC turret’s syndrome. Bloomie isn’t perfect but the difference is pretty striking. Far less bombast, circus atomosphere, and no idiotic cast of thousands on the set. I feel like a healthier person as a result. Why didn’t I switch sooner?
February 19th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
The Rick Santelli Show at TBP
February 19th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
THIS is the greatest problem. Every other facet of the present world economy pales in significance. Even wars, entitlement programs, pension funds and stock markets don’t add up to a hill of beans in comparison.
By Matthew Leising
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — U.S., U.K., and European regulators are in talks to jointly regulate the $28 trillion credit-default swap market, the Federal Reserve said today.
Time for some sunshine, folks.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
Does anybody remember the Market as it used to be? It seems like ages ago when I actually felt good about trying to pick a possible winner. Now it is just look, get slapped in the face and go home in shame. WHEW!
February 19th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
I’d be more worried if the S&P broke its low. I think that is the more relevant index one should focus on. Seems likely we actually have a major reversal tomorrow if we can succesfully test that low. This retest, if it is that, has been on relatively low volume. I still would contend that like in the Great Depression, we are likely to have a big sucker’s rally before we head lower. I don’t think there’s a precedent in market history for a 50% crash and then immediately lower a few months later without at least a big bear market rally. I don’t think the dead cat bounce in December really counts.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:29 pm
Deficit Spending is front-loaded joy and back-loaded pain. What we’re seeing is the downside of the most leveraged society in America’s history. Here’s the good news: failure precedes success – ask any winner.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:34 pm
It is the travesty that the retail investor has gotten and will continue to get killed in the shenanigans of Wall Street. Wall Street and its participants will survive to bring us another debacle down the line but I wonder the fate of the investor. As someone who has been directly affected by this meltdown, I have taken it upon myself to read between the lines and I sit back in amazement at the so called market “gurus” on the networks calling a buying opportunity of a lifetime since the fall. I wonder which crystal ball they use. I can only feel sorry for their clients. Last time I checked, housing is still a mess, no one has a clue as to how to tackle the CDS market both here and in Europe, Consumer spending has fallen off the cliff, savings are going up, manufacturing is down, the dollar is on its last legs, eastern europe and the PIGS are near collapsing. Where does one see the silver lining? Perhaps, all of this can be explained by “the market is forward looking”. Do I really believe that in this environment I can see the turn in earnings on the horizon? Don’t get me wrong, I am still a bull at heart but for now I have to turn in my horns for some long claws!!Can we not have a few Rick Santelli’s for the equity investor?
February 19th, 2009 at 8:37 pm
karlhausrealty Says (at 7:14 pm)
“you got screwed just like the Gipsy pickpocket did you at the fair.
Florida Real Estate Blog”
I’m sure we’d have done better investing in FL real estate, where the web site says: “Your gateway to a new life,” and which features loads of REO properties. I shit you not – click the link. What a hoot.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
Santelli is an idiot.
There he is ranting about stimulus from a trading floor that would be SHUT DOWN but for TARP. How many hours a day do traders work? Maybe they should try 60+ hour weeks and then get laid of.
I look forward to the day all traders are replaced with software. No value-added whatsoever.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:41 pm
Shopping Malls and 401Ks/IRAs going the way of the dodo birds. Who will drive the markets in the future as Mom and Pop flee the markets. The younger generation will certainly shy away.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
Bad $ news today, but here’s some broke-ness related humor that might help, or not.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
Seeing GE and Wells Fargo at such low levels should make younger investors salivate.
Yeah, I’m salivating over the huge gains my puts will yield when Jack Welch’s Great Earnings Manipulation Machine (GE Capital) finally blows up the whole company. The stock is trading like AIG in early September, personally that does not make me “salivate” except perhaps in preparation to retch.
There he is ranting about stimulus from a trading floor that would be SHUT DOWN but for TARP. How many hours a day do traders work? Maybe they should try 60+ hour weeks and then get laid of.
Your entire post betrays how utterly without a clue you are, from your take on the financial strength of the futures markets to your absurd opinion on the working hours of traders. And I’m looking forward to when we invent AI too, but until that happens human traders are here to stay.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
I say we stop sending dollars and instead bring pitchforks.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
To all the posters who are calling for Obama to be impeached and declaring his actions stink, I want to ask…you got a better idea?
Seriously. I’ve been thinking a lot about what I would do if I was the Commander in Chief and had to deal with this. When I read the message boards I see a lot of pissing and moaning but no one’s offering up any REAL, VIABLE suggestions as to what the President should do differently.
I’d like to hear from these brilliant minds who are so sure of Obama’s ineptitude.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
I don’t think there’s a precedent in market history for a 50% crash and then immediately lower a few months later without at least a big bear market rally.
Check out tulip mania or the South Sea bubble. I think we will see a big bear market rally some time these year, but the market appears to need to go lower to compress the spring for that launch.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
Any gunowners beware, especially in Illinois as before the Illinois House of Rep is HB0687, a Firearm Owners ID-Insurance bill, which states “that any person who owns a firearm in this State shall maintain a policy of liability insurance in the amount of at least $1,000,000 specifically covering any damages resulting from negligent or willful acts involving the use of such firearm while it is owned by such person.”
Should you not comply, “the Department of State Police shall revoke and seize a Firearm Owner’s Identification Card,” thus making the the firearm illegal and the owner a criminal.
http://illinoiscarry.com/forum/index.php?s=6f8dd911dbf6f2465c7049f40091c461&showtopic=14542&st=0&p=140681&#entry140681
So the fear that Obama would ban handguns, likely not, but this is another way of going after the second amendment.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:01 pm
Broken
The CME did not get tarp and most of the traders on that floor don’t work for tarped firms…good grief
February 19th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
Santelli’s the new Joe the Plumber. Maybe Santelli actually knows plumbing, which could be helpful if his dreams come true and the “free market” gets to run its course.
My belief is that Santelli’s rant masks his underlying panic. He’s a smart guy (and a smartass and frequently a douchebag) so he knows that Citi and others are insolvent. Whether some joker gets help with his mortgage is as relevant to the big picture as whether Erin Burnett wears flats or heels.
The basic question is how to euthanize the big banks. Do you want medical intervention (e.g. the government excises the toxic assets) or do you simply let nature take its course (the banks eat the assets and they die).
In the grand scheme, Rick can throw all the tea parties he wants but by the time he assembles his rabble the S&P could be at 500. His 15 minutes of fame may mark the pinnacle of the CNBC circus and the beginning of the next leg down.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
Bud Fox:
What would the CME be trading if all the banks were smoking holes in the ground? Beaver-skins? Rocks?
February 19th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
“Anything goes, no subject off limits — the only requirements being that comments are intelligent or informative or amusing.”
How do you feel about provocative? ;-)
Dow Closes Under 7500
Predictable.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
“Thank God Equity Investors Can Put Obama’s 1st 30 days Behind Us”
A client wrote this morning “In everything I read there is definite sentiment of a tech[nical] rally of 25-30% for the Spring….” and then went on to draw parallels between the 1930’s, Amity Schlaes The Forgotten Man, and today, or simply Obama and FDR. I noted that the US today should mirror the Great Depression of Great Britain in the 1930’s and not the Great Depression in the US, simply because the US role in the global markets has changed to be like that of Great Britain in the 1930’s.
My reply was that we were inside the 1st 100 days and I am stunned how badly Obama has botched things up inside the only first 30 days. The political and credibility capital that Obama has squandered astounds me. I then went on to discuss market sentiment and 78% retracements (what has been most on my mind in the latter half of this week), or what can be considered a snapshot of behavioral finance modeling at work.
“By the time a market makes a 78% retracement and down – 18% like we have in the SP500 from the Jan 6 year high, it literally puts our backs up to the wall as far as testing our optimism for the new administration. Psychology, when it reaches the 78% retracement is near its breaking point. We either get a shift back towards optimism reflected by a move back to the upside in the stock market and away from the pessimism that has gripped equity investors since Jan 6, or, if there is no considerable shift in sentiment, we head for the crapper.
The line in the sand is being drawn at not only the 78% retrace at 778 in the SP500, but the 2002 year low at 767. It makes punting and going long down here about as low risk as you can get, with absolute clarity as to the exit strategy. These patterns can make for great trades and sometimes great investments (if talking about stocks you are looking to hold a yr or more). In short, this real live example of using pattern recognition as a risk management tool is worth remembering if technical analysis is not your forte.
There are several other technical factors bolstering the 78% triangle pattern that suggests the stock market is setting a secondary low at the moment. The more factors that support a pattern recognition such as a secondary low consideration, the stronger the probability that an actual secondary low is being set as I write.
First, note the 32 day 27% rally into Jan 6. Not also the 32 day 18% decline into Feb 19. This is a 100% time retracement. Time vibrations are often found around 100% time retracements. Then note how both the 27% rally and 18% decline are both multiples of 9. This is mathematically in accordance with natural harmonics ~ a two-thirds price retracement at the 100% time retracement.
So, these are a few reasons to suspect a secondary low is forming and that a significant vibration to the upside may occur from here. This will require a move towards a more positive shift in market sentiment on behalf of market participants. If there is no positive shift in sentiment here, the market vibration off this 100% time retracement will prove lackluster and ultimately yield to lower prices. For this reason, I must reiterate once again the market is still aggressively bearish below the swing hi at 876, and the quarterly moving average now at 860.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
I would actually bet that Santelli realizes CNBC is probably on its way out and that the financial markets are in serious trouble, and wants to say his piece and try to influence the debate in a positive direction before we finally center all decision-making in Washington, DC. Funny how having things like principles and an ideology can help you see the bigger picture like that.
Where does this idea come from that the free market, if allowed to run its course, would spiral down to zero? Has that ever happened? Is there any historical evidence to suggest it’s the case? It’s like Jim Rogers says, banking sectors have been going bankrupt for hundreds of years, it was only in the last century or the last few decades that we lost the intestinal fortitude to let capitalism weed out the failures.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
(Been gone from here since November… wordpress didn’t like me for some reason… but…)
I’m back.
So what’s new? Obama’s in… Palin’s not. The Fed/Treasury seems like the old times, though. Clueless.
I had predicted at SPX 1100 that 900 was the optimistic high and 350 was the pessissmistic low.
Hope the longs who were moaning about SPX at 1100 and waiting for a bounce to get out… took my advice… “get out while the gettin’s good”.
My strategy in Oct/Nov/Dec was to buy and write deep in-the-money calls. It worked out well and the VIX paid off for me. I would have gone short but I am absolutely clueless as to how the average investor thinks.
Made some money in the short 30yr ETF but chickened out when it broke above 3.something.
12 Month Predictions?
The 10′s/30′s rates will go up… but it will be a wild ride… deflation fears vs. the printing press.
The $? The thing about printing presses is this: if everyone has one… then no currency is devalued against any other currency if they’re all running the presses full tilt boogie.
Au and Oil will rise.
The SPX will rally when they nationalize/pre-privatize the sink-hole banks. And then flounder. The year will end at 762.
So…. long Au… long Oil… short 10/30′s… deep in the money calls on new SPX’s.
But beware… (embarassing disclosure)… I LOST MONEY LAST YEAR. My portfolio was down 3.2%… so what do I know?
Always,
TG Randini
February 19th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
What would the CME be trading if all the banks were smoking holes in the ground? Beaver-skins? Rocks?
Yeah, I’m sure everyone would stop using oil and food and lumber and stop buying government bonds instantly.
Yes, trading volumes and the variety of contracts on the futures exchanges are probably headed for a nosedive, but that’s a function of the ongoing de-financialization of the economy and has nothing to do with whether particular bailouts pass or don’t pass.
If the FDIC can’t shepherd our banking sector through bankruptcies then why does it even exist in the first place?
February 19th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
Nobody answered my inquiry in the last thread (not that I asked you too), but what about Santelli’s thoughts about GE’s recent/ongoing bailout and its situation? How does he square that circle? Is he one of those that thinks it’s somehow different with GE because that’s his employer? I would love for someone to ask him that question. Without gov’t assistance for his company, he may not have a job but when disaster hits others he’s squarely against it? Of course he is…..
February 19th, 2009 at 9:14 pm
Here is a question for ye mavens: UYG is the ETF that tracks the Dow US Financial Index. Suppose the companies that presently comprise the US Financial Index all decline to zero – UYG goes to zero too. It doesn’t have far to go now, having closed today at $2.23. Once the losers are nationalized, or go bankrupt, however, they exit the Index. As their stock falls, their impact on the Index decreases in any event. But so long as the US financial system doesn’t disappear – there will be new banks, and probably survivors among the existing companies. Even if every existing financial institution in America were to be wiped out – provided we continue to have a financial system, and a US Financial Index, the proportionate impact on the Index of any winners will increase as the value of the losers declines. In other words, at this point, UYG is less an investment in the existing financial institutions represented by the Index, and more a long-term option on the survival of a financial system. Am I missing something?
February 19th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
What Does a Close at 778 Mean? (charts not included here)
This is the question that has been put to me to answer as the market came to a close at 779 this afternoon. This is another way of asking if a close at or below the 78% retracement is signaling further weakness. The answer is that a one day close at or below the 78% retrace is signaling weakness. But, this can be a false signal, for that reason, technicians filter that rule of weakness by looking for confirmation, which in this case would be two consecutive daily lower closes below the 78% retracement. However, I should like to point out that I do not favor such rules as anything more than guidelines. And initiating a trade on such a signal in the direction of an already extended trend could be suicide for a trader or investor. One day, one week or one month’s events can create incredible momentum either to the upside or to the downside, and then suddenly we see the whole trend reverse, with or without any warning and much of a shift in sentiment at the time it happens.
We are on thin ice to be sure (a reason to have some hedge on), but a close back inside yd’s range, above yd’s lows at 776 is a net positive. A close near unchanged is also a net positive. Over the years, the big boys have hammered out huge intermediate highs and lows at or near the 75 handle (in this case the 775 handle). The fact that the SP500 has been hovering around here for three solid days straight suggests no one wants to be the one to push this below the 2002 bear market lows at 767-778.
The big boys tend to carve out multi-day intermediate highs or lows this very way. Meanwhile, some downside mo has been burnt off this week while hammering away at 767-778, this is another possible net positive. To push the market below 767, (which could happen) we’d probably have to have another f-up at the Barnum and Bailey circus on Capitol Hill or some epiphany on the major problems surrounding the trajectory of actual SP500 earnings in Q4 08 and where it is headed in Q1 09.
Also note the horizontals on chart above at 775, 1175 and 1575. These numbers carry numerological significance. It is a long story that starts with Dow 1929 high at 386 (a multiple of 39). 390 x 2 = 780, 390 x 3 = 1170, and 390 x 4 = 1156….There is more numerology than that but, not now….The important thing to note right now is how the big boys play the game at these big levels. It sometimes takes the big boys 3 to 4 months to hammer out a high or low at these levels. Note the 4 month top at 1175 between Dec 01 and March 02, and then the three month bottom at 775 between July to Oct 02.
If we fast forward to 2007 and 2009 (next chart), we see the same behavior playing out. It took 64 days high to high to hammer out the high at roughly 1575 between July and Oct 2007. Roughly that was a three month double top. Then note that how the July 07 high spent 5 days churning near 1575, and how the Oct 07 high spent 7 days churning at 1575 before letting go at the onset of the Q3 07 earnings season, when financials first stumbled badly. Guess what is happening now? Now the SP500 is potentially churning out a 64 day low to low cycle between Nov 2008 and Feb 2009. Yep, today was the 64th td from the November low. 32 tds up, and 32 tds down into Thursday Feb 19. Note the narrow range churning that has taken place over the past three trading days—very much like the narrow range churn when the SP500 was on its highs in July and Oct 2007. This is what we call a potential “tell” or signature high or low.
Now, though I did not mention this before, I should like to point out that the Oct 2002 low and the October 2007 high both occurred on a Thursday. Incidental perhaps that today happens to also be a Thursday? Could be, but it is very much worth paying attention to as sentiment is extremely bearish among market participants—including yours truly. We are all leaning pretty heavily towards the SP500 just capitulating towards 300-450 from today’s 775. Incidentally, the next harmonic below 775 is 390, which doevetails with the 1992 low. So, am I particularly anxious to piss on the market at 775 today? Not so much so. I’d much prefer pissing on it from 1175-ish in 2009, which seems a pipedream at the moment to be sure. If we could only be so lucky!
February 19th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
I will send the charts referenced above to Barry if he wishes to post them in its entirety.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
Nobody answered my inquiry in the last thread (not that I asked you too), but what about Santelli’s thoughts about GE’s recent/ongoing bailout and its situation? How does he square that circle? Is he one of those that thinks it’s somehow different with GE because that’s his employer? I would love for someone to ask him that question.
Is there any reason whatsoever to presume Santelli is dishonest or a hypocrite, or is that just a reason not to listen to what he’s saying? Why insinuate something for which you apparently have no evidence? What if he actually said, “sure, I might be out of a job without government bailouts, but so be it.” Would you give his ideas a hearing then or just go grasping for new ad hominems with which to dismiss him?
February 19th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
Mannwich,
LOL at curing your CNBC Turret’s Syndrome. You are one step removed from shutting down daytime TV altogether, spinning some classical jazz standards and reaching Nirvana during the day…
February 19th, 2009 at 9:23 pm
@Graphite: I actually like Santelli. He’s the only one on CNBC that I think is regularly honest, so I respect and appreciate his views. However, I do think he’s stoking the flames here in a very dangerous, divisive and irresponsible way, and if he’s going to do that he should address the conflict in his views against bailouts for homowners when compared to bailouts for GE, the entity that writes his checks. That’s all I’m saying. His company, and therefore by extension his job, is theoretically still alive due to taxpayer bailout. What are his views on that?
February 19th, 2009 at 9:23 pm
@Graphite:
“Where does this idea come from that the free market, if allowed to run its course, would spiral down to zero? Has that ever happened? Is there any historical evidence to suggest it’s the case?”
No, the historical evidence shows the free market won’t go to zero. Just -85%.
“Yeah, I’m sure everyone would stop using oil and food and lumber and stop buying government bonds instantly.”
With what money would they be buying? CME trading volume is down 40% YoY even with TARP.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
@johnb: I’ve also taken to listening to Pandora and my old music from my single days on I-Tunes. I tell you, it’s done wonders for my psyche.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
Mannwich, GE is not Rick Santellis’ employer, and I would guess that it wouldn’t matter to him either way. Smart guys like him usually call all the shots, either for whomever they work for at the moment, or for someone else.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
Tomorrow is option expire day. Any bets the close is slightly up?
February 19th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
I read an interesting Kevin Kelly article on ‘Amish Hackers’
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2009/02/amish_hackers_a.php
There’s more to them than a stereotype, and it might be worth keeping an eye on how they live now, as they may have more company in the medium to longer term :)
February 19th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
@greg: GE owns NBC, and by extension, CNBC, no?
February 19th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
No, the historical evidence shows the free market won’t go to zero. Just -85%.
That’s where the stock market could go, not economic activity. History is also apparently devoid of evidence of government efficacy in propping up the stock market. They’re great at picking winners and losers, though.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
Let the festivities begin…..
NEWS ALERTfrom The Wall Street Journal Feb. 19, 2009 Bank of America Chairman and Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis was issued a subpoena by New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who is investigating whether the bank withheld information from investors in violation of state law. Mr. Lewis is the highest-profile subject of Mr. Cuomo’s investigation into the Charlotte, N.C., bank’s purchase of Merrill Lynch. Mr. Cuomo’s office is trying to determine if investors were misled about the depth of Merrill’s losses in late 2008 and whether details of the bonuses to Merrill employees, contained in a nonpublic document, should have been disclosed to investors. Investigators also took testimony from former Merrill CEO John Thain on Thursday.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
@Mannwich,
Fair point, I reacted too hastily. Forgive me, but it seems like every time someone comes out and says “let the free market work” there’s a whole army of naysayers looking for some way that they’re just being a hypocrite and don’t really believe what they’re saying. Granted, a lot of the people who _called_ themselves free marketeers really weren’t (Greenspan’s at the top of that list), but it’s no reason to assume the entire cohort is corrupt.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
My alternative to Obama’s plan:
President Obama, instead of rewarding the speculative risk taking homebuyers that purchased homes they could not afford, let the free market work and let housing prices correct to their natural level so that people like myself that didn’t speculate on real estate and didn’t chase absurd prices can buy a reasonably priced home. Sure, home prices are much lower than 2006, but they are still only down to 2005 prices here in Chicago and the median home price to median income is still above average. The problem with assisting homeowners that cannot afford their mortage is that the redefault rate is 40% when you help these people out and helping them out only delays the inevitable correction in real estate prices. Look at California, which has experienced one of the largest declines in home prices, and home sales are BOOMING! Duuuhh, there’s the solution, let prices drop and the buyers will come. Let’s face it, if you have a mortgage equal to more than 40% of your income, you shouldn’t own that house in the first place.
So my suggestion to Obama is to let the foreclosures happen but provide incentives and relief to the lenders if they agree to rent the home back to the resident at a rate equal to the lower of (1) the current market rate for rent or (2) 31% of the mortgage. If the resident cannot afford the amount, then provide the resident with assistance (including financial) finding a new house to rent. In addition, the government should create a website that lists all houses owned by the banks that are for rent or for sale. And if the banks sell a foreclosed home that they now own, they will be required to give the resident two months notice and 100% asssistance in finding a new place to live. I think this is an excellent solution because it also makes residents more flexible to job opportunities outside of their immediate region and it creates an open and visible market for foreclosures.
Also, let’s not forget that many of the people having trouble with mortgage payments are the ones that took several hundred thousand dollars of equity out of their house to buy bling and live above their means. For example, I know a family that purchased a meager home in a rapidly appreciating neighborhood in 2004 for $300k and they refinanced their entire mortgage and received $200k in cash which was spent on a Range Rover and lots of other bling. Now that family has a $500k mortgage that they cannot afford and will probably receive assistance from the government. Bailing this family out sounds like rewarding spending, speculation and over indulgence and living beyond one’s means. Also, this family’s combined income is $70k!
February 19th, 2009 at 9:43 pm
Hello all, hold you in high regard. Been lurking a while. Currently 90% cash (“stable funds” in 401k’s) and 10% long trading accounts. This has become 1 of 4 regular sites: TBP, Minyanville, StockMarketMentor & Realmoney. Been 10 years of reading & learning that helped me avoid last years crash. This market is just brutal; sucking the energy out with the high volatility and constant news gaps. Wish I could fast forward ’09 and get to 2010 already. This is going to be a long year. Just wanted to say thanks for taking the edge off of this mess.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:44 pm
Mannwich, yes, which means he works for CNBC. I really don’t understand how people couldn’t like the guy? He’s wicked smart, articulate, and can’t stand bullshit. What more could you want.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:44 pm
This crisis has been brewing for years, if not a decade. The bear market (and recession) started some 15 months ago. Virtually every stock market in the world experienced 40% declines last year; every economy in the world is suffering record declines. The idea that any President can walk in, wave a magic wand and solve all our problems in less than 30 days is, frankly, infantile.
Grow up, America! Instant gratification got us into this mess. It isn’t going to get us out of it. Daddy isn’t going to swoop in on a white horse and lift us out of the mire.
This is going to take a long time – a lot of work – and a lot of sacrifice to rectify our mistakes. And yes, we all made mistakes. Even Rick Santelli. He may not have over-borrowed to buy a house he could not afford – but he benefited from a stock market that was goosed by irresponsible leverage. Why wasn’t he rousing the rabble to demand that the US stop running a budget deficit, a trade deficit, a system that sucked in the world’s savings so we could consume more than we earned? Or demand that our President pay for the war in Iraq, instead of urging the country to go out to the malls and shop. I don’t remember him complaining that house prices were rising to unsustainable heights, or that the banks were taking on too much leverage, or that GE was taking on too much risk in order to boost their stock price. Would CNBC even exist if it wasn’t for the stock market bubble? And if you don’t want the government to interfere in the housing market, how about insisting that Congress eliminate the mortgage deduction? I am sure if Santelli and his gang in Chicago took an honest look at themselves, they would see how they benefited from the housing and stock market manias. If you went along with the upside, you can’t whine about the downside now.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:44 pm
had a long talk with the wife about post-apocalyptic living this evening…we rented Mad Max beyond Thunderdome and The Road Warrior for decorating ideas/ inspiration
my biggest apprehension is that I dont think there is a canned version of Del Frisco’s Bone-in Ribeye
TRB
February 19th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
I agree, Graphite. Maybe I’m being too cynical in questioning his thoughts on GE but it’s hard not to be cynical these days. I have no reason to question his integrity, and like I said, I like Santelli but I think we all need to take a deep breath and calm down a little (myself included….not watching CNBC has helped me quite a bit!). I was just throwing it out there for critical analysis because Santelli has to realize there are a lot of people on Main Street who are just as angry about the bailouts for his compadres on Wall Street. That’s the problem with these bailouts. The moral hazard is endless. When does it end? The folks on Wall Street think that the autos should be forced to fail and vice versa, Jamie Dimon lectures people today to “fulfill their obligations” on paying back their loans, while those on Main Street think they shouldn’t be bailing out Dimon and JPM Chase so that they can then turn the screws on credit terms, etc. etc. etc. I think it’s human nature to think that somehow our own situation is “different” when we are or others we know are adversely affected but the faceless, nameless guy down the street should take his lumps.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:50 pm
TRB I have the contractors coming out to give me a quote on solar panels. That will be my trading goal for the year. With well and septic, just need the power and I am good to go. My wife is excited about starting a garden. The deer in the back yard may be more than just scenery soon.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:51 pm
I like Santelli but I think we all need to take a deep breath and calm down a little (myself included….not watching CNBC has helped me quite a bit!)
Heh, I will heartily second this sentiment! But for me, CNBC is on all day at the office regardless of my wishes, and Rick Santelli is the only thing keeping me from chucking my TV out the window!
February 19th, 2009 at 9:51 pm
Personally, I hope Santelli gets what he wants. Let the free market reign. Let’s have a Depression II. Then we an army of starving people finally realize there’s more of them then there are of us, we can see Santelli hanging from a meat hook a la Mussolini.
Be careful what you wish for, Santelli…I hope you get it.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
Would you rather be stuck having QVC on all day???
February 19th, 2009 at 9:54 pm
g’luck Claws…read The Road by Cormac McCarthy…I’ve been passing it around here since October or so
on second thought, we may be living it soon enough, so maybe skip the book
February 19th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_RHwzqq5yGy0/SZ4HKEIDquI/AAAAAAAAAgs/T0gFfROAlSc/s1600-h/usd.jpg
double top on the dollar? anyone…anyone…
February 19th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
franklin411:
What you need to try and grasp is that if we have a depression coming, it was baked into the cake when we overleveraged the entire country in an orgy of debt-financed speculation and capital consumption. And if that’s the case, whether you “let the free market reign” or not is immaterial to whether we have “Depression II.”
And the problem with the “swinging from a meat hook” thesis is that it’s mostly the free market guys like Santelli who own all the guns.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
franklin411….someone needs a big hug.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
Thanks TRB; Just finished a GANN trilogy; I will look into it.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
Graphite,
Maybe, but the problem with the Santelli thesis, which holds that poor people aren’t really people at all, is that when you take everything away from a man, he has nothing to lose. There’s nothing more dangerous than a man with nothing left to lose.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
Graphite:
“That’s where the stock market could go, not economic activity. History is also apparently devoid of evidence of government efficacy in propping up the stock market. They’re great at picking winners and losers, though.”
Economic activity dropped 50%, maybe less in constant dollars, from 1929-1933. The banking system had collapsed. Some states had reverted to the barter system. Foreclosure agents in the farm belt were met with firearms. Unemployment 25%. Underemployment 50%. The trend was toward complete collapse without government intervention.
Depressions are a demand problem. Money is hoarded. Government spending is a way to create demand. From 1933 to 1936, GDP recovered to 1929 levels. If it’s wasn’t government intervention which caused this, what did?
February 19th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
Obama is really screwing up not taking the W post 9/11 approach: Anyone who opposed the stimulus bill or forced changes will be held responsible for the continuning slide. This would set up the next congressional campaign where the can morph Steny Hoyer’s face into Angelo’s and say that he is responsible for the second great depression.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:05 pm
franklin411, I don’t think that’s an accurate description of Santellis’ thesis.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
Don’t watch CNBC while trading unless you like giving money away.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
@TRB
Living large you are. Stop dreaming of canned ribeye and start stocking up on the Dinki-Di dog food for when it really gets grim.
Watch out for feral kids with boomerangs.
(How long do you figure a dandy like Kudlow would last in the wild?)
February 19th, 2009 at 10:10 pm
long dxo @1.77, very nice….
February 19th, 2009 at 10:10 pm
If it’s wasn’t government intervention which caused this, what did?
The depression had run its course, the bubble had been completely flattened, and the recovery got underway. That’s how business cycles work and have always worked, whether there was a large amount of government spending and intervention or not. On occasion, politicians manage to get themselves elected just as the recovery gets underway, and then their policies are credited for turning the economy around. For some reason, people always assume that without those policies, a Mad Max fate surely would have followed.
In 1920-1921, the economy dipped into a severe recession. Government cut taxes and spending. The economy recovered in 1923. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc?
What made the 1929-1933 depression particularly devastating was a combination of a lot of goosing of the bubble on the upside from the Fed and catastrophic interventions by Hoover, especially in propping up wages, during the crash.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Mannwich Says:
February 19th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
@johnb: I’ve also taken to listening to Pandora and my old music from my single days on I-Tunes. I tell you, it’s done wonders for my psyche.
Jeff,
remember, “Music is the Doctor..”..
and, as you’re figuring out, yon’ chattering box is meant to shatter your cognitive abilities..
though, re: iPod, be careful with the earbuds/headphones, tinnitus is something noone needs..
http://www.icerocket.com/search?tab=web&lng=&q=tinnitus
February 19th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
@Singer Do you think it fills the gap and rolls over or heads to the upper bollinger? Planning on taking partial profits on the fill.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
Looks to me like government spending worked very well. The reason the New Deal lasted so long was because FDR didn’t spend enough. He actually cut spending and balanced the budget in 1937, prompting a recession that put the economy in a tailspin. We went on a spending bender during WWII and the economy soared:
http://img154.imageshack.us/img154/4465/newdealij5.jpg
February 19th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
Where and when has Santelli applauded the Wall St bailouts, Santelli has been warning of the loose credit standards for years. I am sure Santelli could care less whether GE survives, Santelli is his own man, he took on the face of CNBC Cramer and called him out for his BS.
If I hear one more person say how by preventing your neighbor from foreclosure it improves your home price I am going to puke, this is the most flawed argument I have ever heard and cannot believe how many clueless people like Barney Frank continue to say this.
As a 31 year old renter who makes around 100k and has over 250k in liquidity with no debt as a result of living BELOW MY MEANS since graduating from college in 2000, it was nice to hear Santelli speak out for savers and people like myself who knew better than to chase this real estate market. As someone who works for a large tarp recipient I am amazed at all the fellow coworkers making 6 figures whom are scared to death that they will have to file bankruptcy if they lose their job and the rug gets pulled out from us. Whatever happened to having 6-12 months in savings to get someone through tough times.
As for the market all of my shorts were covered today and I will be net long going into tommorow for the first time in 15 months. I would be utterly shocked if the PPT does not manipulate the market up into expiration tommorow. If they are not able to take the market up tommorow I sure as hell do not want to be long going into Monday. As much as I dislike the stock I think XOM is the play going into tommorow, for the market to be manipulated up with XOM’s weighting in the dow there will need to be heavy buying in it, without xom going up the market cant go up. The 10% collapse this week in xom has put heavy pressure on the dow.
I think people are realizing that this administration is just as clueless as the last administration…the only good I see out of this is the potential to get an Austrian Economist in the white house in 2012, such as Ron Paul, whom has constantly warned of the crisis, spoke out against the bailouts and the fed, and encouraged savings and production unlike the constant borrow and spend we saw under Bush and are now seeing under Obama.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
He actually cut spending and balanced the budget in 1937, prompting a recession that put the economy in a tailspin.
So, it *is* post hoc ergo propter hoc? Then how is it possible that *cutting* government spending worked in 1922-1923 and *increasing* government spending worked in 1933-1937?
February 19th, 2009 at 10:23 pm
Ventura,
I was listening till you said “Ron Paul.” Admiral Goofball can go hang himself.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:25 pm
“As a 31 year old renter who makes around 100k and has over 250k in liquidity with no debt as a result of living BELOW MY MEANS since graduating from college in 2000.”
Sounds like me at 31 in the 1992 recession. I took my savings and started a business. Recessions are a great time to start a company, I kid you not. Low rent and it is easy to hire good people. If you’ve got something cool to sell, people will buy it whatever the economy.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
Franklin,
He was the only one warning about this crisis in politics for YEARS.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
Is Kevin Lane descended from the Perry, Lane & Co Lane’s?
February 19th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
What do you guys think of this authors thoughts?? I have mixed feelings about the subject.
http://www.themarketguardian.com/2009/02/monetary-inflation-has-arrived-front-and-center/
February 19th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
I have been doing a lot of reading about gold,oil the dollar and euro and still haven’t scratched the surface. Inflation is here in the raw materials (just look at you grocery bill vs. what it used to be). Gold is currently an overcrowded trade; and the divergence between it and oil will normalize. So either Gold drops, oil rises or both. I believe the dollar is strong due to the euro confidence crisis; which is suppose to hinder oil and gold. With all that in mind, the charts show oil bottoming, gold topping; so I am long oil via the DXO and RIG.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:54 pm
How many times do I have to say this?
Dow 3000 before 2010.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:55 pm
@DC
feral kids with boomerangs, LOL
I can just picture Kudlow now, his pinstriped suit tattered and twisted into a loincloth, running from the apes on horseback with the tridents and nets
great visual
g’night survivors
February 19th, 2009 at 10:56 pm
SFC,
w/this: “My wife is excited about starting a garden. The deer in the back yard may be more than just scenery soon.”
remember, plan ahead, and alleviate stress, by planting extra for the Deer, and, other, associated Woodland creatures..
also, there are many varieties of seed-bearing Plants, sorghum, as one ex. http://www.icerocket.com/search?tab=web&lng=&q=sorghum&x=21&y=16
that grow readily, look cool, and will, if nothing else, surely feed our winged friends, as well as the, aforementioned, creatures..
February 19th, 2009 at 11:00 pm
Personally, I’ve been buying NXG, a gold stock, since September and I’m up 65%. I noticed that James Simmons from Renaissance Tech just took an 8.3% stake. Let the Dow do what it must do. Which is probably go down another 20%.
February 19th, 2009 at 11:05 pm
Rick Santelli for Fed Chairman !!!!
CNBC sucks. TV sucks. Radio is zombi. Print is ok, when designed -not- to be trashed, as in books.
Internet is good if you know how to navigate.
We need more collaboration. Selfishness is good for the individual and bad for the group. Meditate more.
February 19th, 2009 at 11:22 pm
Sounds like me at 31 in the 1992 recession. I took my savings and started a business.
We know better than to let anything like this happen again. We’re going to take that money and use it to subsidize underwater mortgages.
Remember, “we’re all in this together.”
February 19th, 2009 at 11:26 pm
Anyone else seeing this thread in giant type?
February 19th, 2009 at 11:33 pm
take a deep breath Moneymaven- I think what people are saying is they don’t like the Obama’s policy initiatives at this point- is that ok? I mean we do have the right to think for ourselves- right?
February 19th, 2009 at 11:42 pm
The case for 600′s S&P is hard to refute. That said is anyone adding to short exposure RIGHT here and now?
I would not be surprised to see us retrace a bit from here. Those that go long that bounce are likely to be fodder for the bears of course in the end.
What will be the catalyst for that final move down-Q1 09 earnings in mid march?
I will be looking for AT’s comments, as I am mostly a reader here, but enjoy most everyone’s commentary.
February 19th, 2009 at 11:51 pm
BR,
why no Love for Meredith Whitney, and her decision to go Independent?
seems to me that a sharp tack like her would make a quality business partner for Ritholtz y Cia. ..
SB: to your Q: yes, large type here, as well..
February 19th, 2009 at 11:51 pm
@Mex:
Catalyst for S&P 600, then 400, will be massive hedge fund redemptions by legitimately panicked investors.
February 19th, 2009 at 11:52 pm
Once upon a time in America……
I used to spend my investment research hours looking for companies growing earnings, without too much debt, whose stock had been noticed by others (in an uptrend)…..waited for a little pullback…and bought it.
Those were the good old days….
Now, I’m checking the dollar index at 1 A.M (even though I don’t get this whole currency thing), checking the treasury auction schedule, trying to calculate what’s going to happen when the fed stops backstopping the commercial paper market, waiting to see the initial claims numbers, trying to figure out what all these rescue plans mean, and I haven’t traded an individual stock in over a year (all ETF’s). I can’t say I’m a big fan of this brave new world.
I trade with the conviction of a cockroach, scattering at the first sign of danger, hoping I’ll survive to see the next era…and missing the old days.
And just to weigh in: Santelli rocks! give him his own show.
February 19th, 2009 at 11:55 pm
@ JohnDoe
to change your password go to the bottom of the comment section (where you put in a new comment) and click on your user name (highlighted in blue above the comment box). Once you are directed to the new page- go to the bottom and you will see where there is a section to change your password.
Everyone else- Santelli is THE BOMB baby!!!!
February 20th, 2009 at 12:01 am
We’ll be at or near the bottom when you can buy the Dow for three ounces of gold.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:08 am
SB- the crash, I do not deny one can almost feel that sort of implosion looming in the distance. Enjoy your input here as well.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:11 am
“To all the posters who are calling for Obama to be impeached and declaring his actions stink, I want to ask…you got a better idea?”
Yes, I do. Refund income taxes for a year or two. Put the $$ in the hands of people (taxpayers) who can make proper decisions about how to use it rather than in the hands of politicians who will just line the pockets of their buddies.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:14 am
“whether you “let the free market reign” or not is immaterial to whether we have “Depression II.””
In fact, if we relented to the free market, the depression would be deeper. It would also be shorter and bring us out in better shape.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:16 am
Anyway, I find no reason to be hopetimistic right now.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:21 am
Today I took a few thousand and played the receivership/nationalization trade with C and BAC. Jan 10 2.5 Puts were trading for pennies. I picked up 100 contracts of each. I could be very wrong (and lose a little), or right and ten-bag it. I don’t see either of those companies making it through ’09 with any equity value left – but we’ll see. This is a ‘long tail’ play for me. Have been considering it for a couple days, Whalen’s piece on TechTicker made up my mind.
Loving COF’s collapse. Bought a bunch of DFS 2.5 Puts at .30. Forget where I read it (maybe on this site) – ‘middle to upper class file BK, lower to middle class just default’. COF targeted the hell out of that second group for the past 5 years. They’re going to report negative earnings from now until they die. Good riddance for having a ‘default rate’ of 34% jammed into the fine print.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:24 am
@Graphite:
“Remember, “we’re all in this together.””
Well, we are actually. It’s like the guy who says, “The hole is on your side of the boat, why should I help fix it?”
Sorry I missed your earlier “Depression” post where you said,
“The depression had run its course”.
Actually, the depression was not bottoming in 1933 when FDR came into office. If anything it was accelerating. The banking crisis in particular. One army general publicly stated that FDR should assume “dictatorial powers”. That’s how freaked out people were. Fast forwarding to the present day, Obama may be acting too early because some people still don’t get how bad this can become. FDR didn’t have that problem.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:29 am
COF:
31.17 – Current P/E
6.07 – Forward P/E [really?? your earnings prospects are looking THAT good?]
Can I have whatever those exec’s are smoking?
17% down today on 2x+ average volume. Look at that chart since Jan 1. It’s like the anti-Madoff ‘non-variable returns’.
And they’re not even in the ballpark with their ‘loss reserves’…
What a POS stock.
Do you need a ‘disclosure’? I’m short COF six ways from Sunday.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:31 am
Obama is a rookie talking acting like a rookie, even with all the advisory experience. I don’t want change anymore, I want a refund.
DJIA is about as industrial as I am after three sniffs of Wild Turkey. Look to SPX.
IMO, the markets will not fall much lower until the deflation argument resonates louder. Lots of money hiding out in oil/commodities and pining for reflation. It’ll take more bad news out of China (PBR anyone?) and a bad summer driving season to sink ‘em. If that happens, we’ll be going much, much lower.
I guess a European banking collapse could do that too.
Bounce on nationalization? If it happens, I say yes. The market will get some clarity – the information will be more important than the loss (enough for a bounce anyway)
February 20th, 2009 at 12:39 am
@TheReformedBroker said “had a long talk with the wife about post-apocalyptic living this evening…we rented Mad Max beyond Thunderdome and The Road Warrior for decorating ideas/ inspiration…”
[lol] You might be better served heading over to the Discovery channel and watch Man vs. Wild or Survivorman.
http://dsc.discovery.com/fansites/manvswild/manvswild.html
February 20th, 2009 at 12:40 am
Excellent article here:
Willem Buiter
Home loans in the US: the biggest racket since Al Capone?
February 18, 2009
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/02/home-loans-in-the-us-the-biggest-racket-since-al-capone/
February 20th, 2009 at 12:42 am
Mannwich @ 9:13
Did Santelli really say that he supports the idea of the government bailing out General Electric? I find that very hard to believe. If he didn’t explicitly say it, why assume that he does support bailout money for GE?
As for your comment @ 9:23 that he’s “stoking the flames … in a very dangerous, divisive and irresponsible way” I think a lot of people would disagree. I’d like to see a lot more people in the MSM ranting like Santelli. The more opposition to Obama on this issue, the better.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:42 am
‘Suicide By Cop’ Phenomenon Occurring In Over A Third Of North American Shootings Involving Police
ScienceDaily (Feb. 19, 2009) — “Suicide by Cop” (SBC) is a suicide method in which a person engages in actual or apparent danger to others in an attempt to get oneself killed or injured by law enforcement. A new study in the Journal of Forensic Sciences examined the prevalence of this phenomenon among a large sample of officer-involved shootings.
Results show that SBC occurs at extremely high rates, with 36 percent of all shootings being categorized as SBC. The findings confirm the growing incidence of this method of suicide, with SBC cases more likely to result in the death or injury of the subjects 50 percent of the time.
…
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090218103529.htm
February 20th, 2009 at 12:43 am
@MexicaliBlues:
“The case for 600’s S&P is hard to refute. That said is anyone adding to short exposure RIGHT here and now?”
I think a short position over the next quarter will make you good money. Tomorrow? Maybe. It’s option expiration day, and those who bought calls or sold puts might try to drive the market higher.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:44 am
To kansascitypothole:
“You Want A Refund” ? You must be kidding. You really want the Republicans back in power? Guess you figure they did such a great job over the past 8 years, right? Guess you’re not over you wasted vote for McCain/Palin.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:46 am
@CPJ13
Yeah I’m loving my COF puts right now too. I just wish I hadn’t paid for so much time, it looks like I’ve got about 10 more months than I’ll need for them to go in the money!
GE is another fun one, I’m hoping for a repeat performance of my AIG grand slam last year.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:46 am
“wasted vote” might just be one of the most ignorant, ridiculous comments I’ve ever heard. Regardless of your party affiliation. Please tell me you were joking.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:50 am
@ Graphite
I have the Jun 09 25.00 that I bought around 34.xx. It’s one of the few I feel I timed perfectly. I exited SO many positions too early last year for lack of conviction I’m kicking myself. BAC, XL, WM, WB, ML, JPM, I could go on forever… I bought a ton of time, and then bailed as soon as I booked a decent profit. Hard not to think where I’d be had I held on to my convictions…
February 20th, 2009 at 12:58 am
CPJ13,
he wasn’t joking..
neither is this:
Top 25 Censored Stories for 2009
#1. Over One Million Iraqi Deaths Caused by US Occupation
# 2 Security and Prosperity Partnership: Militarized NAFTA
# 3 InfraGard: The FBI Deputizes Business
# 4 ILEA: Is the US Restarting Dirty Wars in Latin America?
# 5 Seizing War Protesters’ Assets
# 6 The Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act
# 7 Guest Workers Inc.: Fraud and Human Trafficking
# 8 Executive Orders Can Be Changed Secretly
#9 Iraq and Afghanistan Vets Testify
# 10 APA Complicit in CIA Torture
# 11 El Salvador’s Water Privatization and the Global War on Terror
# 12 Bush Profiteers Collect Billions From No Child Left Behind
# 13 Tracking Billions of Dollars Lost in Iraq
# 14 Mainstreaming Nuclear Waste
# 15 Worldwide Slavery
# 16 Annual Survey on Trade Union Rights
# 17 UN’s Empty Declaration of Indigenous Rights
# 18 Cruelty and Death in Juvenile Detention Centers
# 19 Indigenous Herders and Small Farmers Fight Livestock Extinction
# 20 Marijuana Arrests Set New Record
# 21 NATO Considers “First Strike” Nuclear Option
# 22 CARE Rejects US Food Aid
# 23 FDA Complicit in Pushing Pharmaceutical Drugs
# 24 Japan Questions 9/11 and the Global War on Terror
# 25 Bush’s Real Problem with Eliot Spitzer
http://www.projectcensored.org/top-stories/category/y-2009/
February 20th, 2009 at 1:00 am
Hello everyone,
It has been some time since my last post. Well, the comparisons to the Great Depression are interesting to say the least. This situation is very different from the GD. In the GD we had an industrial economy and now we have a financial one. Also, at the time of the GD the government started with a budget surplus of money to spend. At this point we need to explore the economic growth equation from economics of developement. S>I>K>G. (S) = Savings, Government =No, Business = Not Many, Individuals = Very, very, few. However, savings that lead to (I) investment can come from foreign governments. Foreign governments = Nope, not really…..busy with their own problems. So if you understand the equation you need to get past (S) to lead to (I) that brings you to Capital (K) aka PPE for all those accountants out there. Finally, (G) growth. Lesson = this does not look good. Furthermore, you need to explore my previous posts to get “The Big Picture” or read and explore some important works from the past (I suggest “Masterworks of Economics” for a good start). It is possible to be in a worse situation than the GD. I am still sticking with my original assesment (Explore my previous posts). Also, might want to revisit the PPP. Sweet.
Thanks all,
Economics 101 <<<Still Thinking
Still a student at a public school…… (Not the fancy MIT or Cambridge (Nice work on those fancy mathmatics and derivatives….I’m impressed.), Harvard, Yale etc.). Major = Business Finance and double minors in International Economics and the most important one……Political Economy.
February 20th, 2009 at 1:02 am
Mark,
I appreciate the thoroughness of your list, but you missed my point.
Calling a vote ‘wasted’ is a ludicrous and uninformed characterization. How was it wasted – because it didn’t add to the winning margin of victory? Or perhaps any vote cast for a losing candidate could be defined as ‘wasted’. Political leanings aside, no vote is ever ‘wasted’. That’s why they’re all cast.
Think about it.
February 20th, 2009 at 1:07 am
CPJ13,
I’m in total agreement w/ you. I was just closing the loop, to your Q, by Answering: “He wasn’t joking”–Idiots like that are obvious, even in 2-d..
the list isn’t mine, I just re-posted it–see link, the stories underlie the captions/headlines..
February 20th, 2009 at 1:09 am
Happily voted for Obama and no I certainly would not want McCain/Palin – simply expressing my level of dissatisfaction with Obama. In economic matters he seems like just another politician now. Makes me even more nervous for our first national security crisis (as if the present one doesn’t count).
February 20th, 2009 at 1:14 am
@ Hoffer
Gotcha. I had come to regard your opinions more highly than what I thought you originally meant. My Q was rather rhetorical, in hindsight…
February 20th, 2009 at 1:15 am
Obama is doing fine…the best thing he could do for our long term health is to do very little. However that is absolutely, 100% not going to fly politically. He has to look like he is doing a lot…the stuff he is doing probably won’t make things much worse. Anyone blaming Obama one scintilla for this disaster 25 years in the making is a wingnut who is doomed to ruin.
February 20th, 2009 at 1:22 am
The global economy was really fragile all along…dependent on a debt binging US consumer. Time to think macro here…what is the best capital allocation for society long-term? Flat screen TVs and SUVs …or curing cancer and developing green energy? We grossly misallocated capital. Which labor sector should get a larger piece of the dwindling pie going forward…wall street traders and ballplayers…or researchers and teachers? Do we need to buy cellphone ringtones with so many starving in the world? It is sick when you really think about it…and bad for us in the long run.
February 20th, 2009 at 1:22 am
CPJ13,
as the ol’ Carpenter’s rule tells us: “Measure twice, Cut once.”
Never hurts to 2x-check~
btw, nice use of Options, I only wish that more would see, for themselves, that they are very valuable tools..
also, to me, I wouldn’t worry too much about paying for ‘extra’ time, I find it, usually, underpriced, to begin with, and it, certainly, is one thing one would rather have too much of..
February 20th, 2009 at 1:25 am
Gettin’ The Big Picture in some gigantic font size. Please switch it back or my eye doctor will miss my business.
February 20th, 2009 at 1:31 am
@CPJ13
That’s the story of my life last year too, every time the bailouts goosed the market for 400 points it just got scary to have a lot in puts potentially ticking down to zero. Didn’t help that nearly all my coworkers were permabulls and doing their best to weaken my resolve.
Managed to hang on for the LEH and AIG takedowns though. I think my best trades all came when I was on vacation for a week, heheh. But yeah, I took a look at my trading statement for tax reasons and my jaw dropped. USO puts bought when crude was $130 and sold with it at $110? Ay de mi ….
February 20th, 2009 at 1:33 am
@Mark
Heh yeah, I meant for the time comment to be “tongue-in-cheek.” If the Dow had rallied to 11,000 like so many were expecting I’d be patting myself on the back for having bought it.
February 20th, 2009 at 1:38 am
Last fall, it seemed like the stock market hit a shock wave as it entered into a new realm of reality. The new reality is that investors don’t trust the financial system any more.
In this new reality, no one with any confidence can predict earnings with any reliability. Over about the last 100 trading days, the stock market (including DJIA) has been decaying at an about 20-40% annual rate. The only valid prediction is that earnings are going down!
Eventually, the financial system must be “overhauled” to show it can be trusted again. Only if trust is restored, investing and the associated growth can growth begin again.
Otherwise, the next shock wave will occur when the world realizes the United States is a “Paper Tiger”. A bankrupt nation that bankrupted the world.
February 20th, 2009 at 1:45 am
@ Hoffer
Thanks. The reason I’m proud of my COF trade is because I avoided what I’ve seemed to do on about 80% of my options plays since ’07:
1) Buy tons of time, lose my conviction, sell out early with decent gains, or
2) Buy too little time, only to see my ‘would-have-been’ position explode into the money literally DAYS after expiration. (i.e. had a truckload of Jan 09 expirations that I wanted to hang myself over. If they’d been February expirations, I’d be taking the rest of the year off…)
I consider myself lucky to be up double digits since January 08. Lots of losses, lots of wins, but I’m in the black which, when compared against the broad market performance, ‘ain’t so bad’. Kudos to many on this board for the inspiration and knowledge that led to those results.
February 20th, 2009 at 2:07 am
Not blaming Obama at all for this mess. He can do anything he wants to look busy (the less the better) but he needs to include nationalizing the banks on that list, stat. Perhaps the powers/donors-that-be are preventing this action, to his consternation, but it doesn’t look that way from where I’m sitting. With Geithner as his man, I am not reassured. I am glad the at least some Republicans are beginning to talk about nationalization – they must be truly desperate. I know Obama does not want to be branded some socialist comrade by talk radio for doing such a thing, but I don’t believe time is on our side an we can’t afford to keep trying trillion dollar alternatives.
February 20th, 2009 at 2:29 am
@Steve Barry
February 19th, 2009 at 11:26 pm
Anyone else seeing this thread in giant type?
LOL and thanks for that. I see threads in giant type when I’ve been beating up the martini pitcher a bit too hard.
Perhaps that’s the problem over there? OR adjust “View | Zoom” in your browser? I dunno…just a thought.
That’s the number one surrealist hilarious post on tonights’ open thread!
February 20th, 2009 at 2:40 am
It seems almost common knowledge that US equities are going lower. Much lower. S&P under 500 by Summer is my bet.
I’m long gold, silver, and oil. Short natural gas. Canadian oilsands companies are starting to look attractive for buy ‘n hold of 3-5 years.
Is anyone investing in longshots like Canadian gold and silver mining companies? Newmont, Barrick and Agnico are taking off. How about the 3rd tier players? Too much of a long shot or worth a gamble? There are a ton of cheap warrants floating around with expirations up to 2017. Might be worth throwing some mad money at them. Payof is 20:1 and higher.
February 20th, 2009 at 2:47 am
First observation- the way the market is going down doesn’t have the feel of Sept/Oct ’08, yet we find ourselves at/near those levels. Then it felt like the first huge drop on a roller coaster, now it feels like a trail of tears death march…one foot in front of the next. And the VIX is an indication of that feel. The whole time of Sept/Oct we were in the 70-80 range. I have been less concerned with “the market” than things I observe in people and things outside my little fishbowl of a life. I am seeing the outside is now truly starting–starting—to reflect where the market is this go around. And it is ugly.
Second observation- the economy seems to have layers. Don’t know what else to call it. But in my meetings and visits with clients, prospects, friends, I am hearing things that seem to indicate a much longer time to recover. As an example–maybe a poor one, but cut me slack, it’s 2:30am…
It is one thing for Auto OEM to slow, shut down plants, work off inventory. It’s another thing when tier 1 suppliers feel the ripple. Yet another when the tier 2 are affected. And tier 3… The longer it’s gone, the deeper into the chain it has delved. Once you get below tier 1, the companies are smaller more vulnerable companies. These companies just disappear. So even if Big 3 go bankrupt, do re-org and get right sized–ready to go–the supply chain may well be decimated below tier 1, which will cause extreme lumpiness in the recovery part of the cycle. I think about this and frankly, it’s a BFD.
Last, recessions that I have experienced in the past touch the common man, but not the HNW people as much. This is clearly not the case in this thing we are in. This is hitting hard everywhere and high profile individuals are getting hurt in lifestyle affecting ways too.
The social mood is dark. Much darker than I have experience. Educated people are saying some surprisingly inane things. It is an edgy time. I practice some form of escape a little each day. And I enjoy my family.
February 20th, 2009 at 2:47 am
Hey all,
I don’t want to be the most dismal on here but you can not eat gold, silver, or paper (Fiat) money profits. Services becomes very difficult to obtain in the worst case scenario. (Does picthforks and tiki torches sound about right??? Just a thought……)
Later dudes…..
Economics 101
February 20th, 2009 at 3:04 am
Dow Jones Averages at http://www.djaverages.com/ which is compiled by Dow Jones Indexes has the Nov. 21, 2008 Dow low at
7449.38 and so does Google Finance http://www.google.com/finance/historical?cid=983582&startdate=Nov+1%2C+2008&enddate=Nov+30%2C+2008
However the Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3051.html?mod=mdc_uss_dtabnk&symb=DJIA
and Yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI&a=10&b=1&c=2008&d=10&e=30&f=2008&g=d
as well as BigCharts.com http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=1643
all have the Dow November 21, 2008 low as 7,329.27.
Which is it? 7449.38 or 7329.27
February 20th, 2009 at 3:09 am
CPJ13,
your description sounds like one of the best uses of ‘Experience’..
as a +, as others, as well, have remarked upon it, we should, all, be cognizant of the cohort effect–it puts most electro-magnets to shame..
to switch/click, this:
http://www.cspan.org/Watch/watch.aspx?ProgramId=HP-A-40748
on the ‘Stimulus’ Bill, for anyone that has the patience to hear from the National Govenors Association, National Conference of State Legislatures, National Association of Counties, and, other, assorted species from the Gov’t Zoo, should be a good primer on, exactly, what type of banquet is going to be laid out for our ‘Public Sector’ friendz..
February 20th, 2009 at 4:12 am
“I like Santelli but I think we all need to take a deep breath and calm down a little ”
disagree.
I think we need to start living up to our national origins
February 20th, 2009 at 6:41 am
vaughn Says:
February 20th, 2009 at 4:12 am
“I like Santelli but I think we all need to take a deep breath and calm down a little ”
disagree.
I think we need to start living up to our national origins
=====================
Agreed!
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
- English philosopher Edmund Burke
February 20th, 2009 at 6:58 am
not only do I agree w/ vaughn, and Jojo, I’ll add that we may care to, actually, read the Constitution, and understand that it is, much protestation to the contrary, still in effect..
while we’re at it, order a few for your friends:
http://www.nccs.net/
and, for my own sense, Santelli is right on, as well…
February 20th, 2009 at 7:25 am
re CNBC: eye-candy insufficient for the inanity.
February 20th, 2009 at 8:00 am
Steve Barry Says:
February 19th, 2009 at 11:26 pm
Anyone else seeing this thread in giant type?
——————-
Yes. Maybe Barry did his market study and found out most of his readership is over 50!
February 20th, 2009 at 8:30 am
vaughn Says:
February 20th, 2009 at 4:12 am
“I like Santelli but I think we all need to take a deep breath and calm down a little ”
Very true. Santelli is supposed to be a journalist. Journalists aren’t supposed to emotive “motherhood” style rants which are then called “news” by the networks. It wasn’t news it was populist rabble rousing which it’s possible to do on just about any emotive subject as Al Sharpton or Rush Limbaugh could tell you. If you want some sensible journalistic comment check out David Brooks in this mornings Times….Summary: yes it’s maddening we’re having to bail out all these bankers and homeowners at taxpayers expense but the problem is we’re joined at the hip and if they sink, we sink.
…..And yes I didn’t need my glasses to read TBP this morning.
February 20th, 2009 at 9:01 am
are the majority of college students and recent grads still intent on fulfilling their dream of being hedge fund managers and making boatloads of cash. is this still the psychology out there? if so then the country will continue it’s decline. this mindset must be replaced.
February 20th, 2009 at 9:31 am
Intrade depression contract back in the 70s
February 20th, 2009 at 9:31 am
>How about crash the Ferrari (i.e. burn the house) and collect the insurance proceeds.
Our home owners insurance sent us an addendum to our contract a few months ago stating that our coverage was now strictly to rebuild what we had before on the exact same property. (I’ve been reading the fine print of what financial institutions send me lately. Surprisingly fascinating stuff.)
As someone who sat on a jury that dealt with an arson case, I can assure you that starting a 100% non-suspicious fire is a real trick. Foreclosed on is nothing. Jailed would really suck.
February 20th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Buy a home, get a greencard, we need wellheeled consumers more that day laborers now
February 20th, 2009 at 9:32 am
The guy allegedly responsible for the “many heads arguing with each other” format came over to CNBC from Fox Sports. Now you know why CNBC is just like the Fox Sunday NFL pregame show with Terry, Howie, Jimmy all yammering at each other…except I think Fox Sports is more under control than CNBC.
February 20th, 2009 at 10:26 am
It is going to 5500 soon. Or is it just ylike the minisster in “blazing saddles”, praying for results , or are we just “&5$%ing off!”
February 20th, 2009 at 11:07 am
“Santelli is supposed to be a journalist….It wasn’t news it was populist rabble rousing which it’s possible to do on just about any emotive subject as Al Sharpton or Rush Limbaugh could tell you.”
Exactly. And finance guys in their $1000 suits getting all populist may not work out so well come the revolution. Joe the Plumber types may just hang them up on a meat-hook with all the other overly entitled.
February 20th, 2009 at 11:14 am
On my home mac the text was normal size, now at work on the IBM it is huge print.
February 20th, 2009 at 11:41 am
I say 20-25% further down. That’s 5961-5579 on Dow and 623-584 on S&P.
February 20th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Christ do any of you actually go outside? Here in Texas I’ve seen the first temporary tags (affixed to new cars) in months. I probably see a few a day. Banks have actually tried to solicit my company for small business loans. Gas invitories are down. There is more traffic and there is more people in the stores. Its over. Banks and other credit firms have been effectively removed from the stock market. Go long in F and GM and get ready to the massive industrial might of the american worker to pull us out of this. You know it actually took workers to power us through the last two bubbles right? Imagine what the alternative energy bubble – with stimulus package afterburner is going to be like.
You guys and your spreadsheets- GO OUTSIDE!
February 20th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Nailed this current low within 1 point and the prediction was made back in October. Off by one week on low prediction
http://oilservicestocks.blogspot.com/2009/02/nailed-current-low-within-point.html
February 20th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
A lot of negativity, but does anyone really dispute the fact that the world economy is growing? Even if China is deemed in recession at 6% growth.
Has everyone lost faith in the capitalist system and corporations’ ability to siphon of a share of profits from world GDP? It might not be C that is going to be raking in the profits, but there will be companies that are, you can be sure of it.
Have corporations lost the ability to weather recessions? Even if world GDP drops 5%, which no one is calling for, is the inevitable conclusion, all companies = bankrupt?
At the end of the day, governments will employ half the population if need be. They are still going to need telecom, banking, etc., services, and goods in the form of food, clothing and shelter.
February 21st, 2009 at 9:07 am
“Graphite Answers: February 19th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
No, the historical evidence shows the free market won’t go to zero. Just -85%.
That’s where the stock market could go, not economic activity. History is also apparently devoid of evidence of government efficacy in propping up the stock market. They’re great at picking winners and losers, though.”
me now – GOOD POINT. The market is storage facility and an industry for an income because there are jobs in storage. Remember that all in the industry.
ps – I’m a bit miffed at the things my savings has been used to do.
February 21st, 2009 at 9:23 am
pss – I can’t edit last post .. I should have stoped on point “not economic activity” the rest is interesting and has been retracted.
and missed an “a” and a pause … The market is “a” storage facility and an industry for an income .. because there are jobs in storage.
sorry for the excessive byte usage to make a point … been hittin the keys here so long .. I’m getting dazed .. my bad
February 21st, 2009 at 10:21 am
Broken Says: February 19th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
“The banking system had collapsed. Some states had reverted to the barter system. Foreclosure agents in the farm belt were met with firearms
If it’s wasn’t government intervention which caused this, what did”
me now – um .. savings in the hands of ______ and the repercussions
later Broken says hes “a 31 year old renter who makes around 100k and has over 250k in liquidity” … Not sure whether your primarily a trader .. or an investor .. but I re-affirm .. becareful who you let play with your money
Steve asks: “seein giant type .. Yep and Chief T ;-) I’m with ya
thedocument – “you got a better idea?.. Yes, I do. Refund income taxes”
me now – but what about the deficits … I remember reading above and when it came from Sec Paulsons mouth – the moment the debt is created if handled improperly its too late already and its all our problem .. and I think Wall Street knew that all along
Mark that was some list .. I gotta figure Germany and Hitler grew into existance and power as a means of tribe survival
imo prohibition is a stance for a 2 sided trade structure to come into existance … also backed by moms dads and other goodness thumpers
mddwave “paper tiger” – me thinks to late … but remember shock and awe
huxrules “sees temp tags” .. if ya got it, I say draw it in close
February 22nd, 2009 at 5:06 am
this: “In their landmark book on extraordinary women, Elizabeth Cady Stanton and Susan B. Anthony hailed Founding Mother Mercy Otis Warren (1728–1814) for advocating not only “the freedom of man alone, but . . . that of her own sex also.” In this meticulously researched biography of the first female historian of the American Revolution and our first woman playwright, Nancy Rubin Stuart depicts Mrs. Warren’s life and patriotic achievements.
The sister of firebrand James “the Patriot” Otis, who first declared that “taxation without representation is tyranny,” the highly educated Mercy Otis Warren was the mother of five sons and the wife of James Warren, Speaker of the Massachusetts House and paymaster general of the Continental Army. In 1775 patriotic Mrs. Warren served as her husband’s private secretary at the headquarters of the Massachusetts Committee of Safety and the Provincial Congress, where she heard news about the Revolution that few men—and virtually no women—enjoyed.”
is the type of thing that strikes me as odd v. the take of Today’s “Feminists”..
I find interesting that, in a History replete with strong Women, the ones ‘magnified’ by “Feminists” are, quite usually, contra to the Ideals that founded our Great Experiment..
http://www.amazon.com/Muse-Revolution-Secret-Warren-Foundingof/dp/0807055166
~~
Greg,
I’m not sure if I follow your point re: “tribal survival”..
February 22nd, 2009 at 5:37 am
as well, w/this: “Starred Review. In this elegant and insightful biography, historian Newman (The Transformation of American Abolitionism) offers a vivid portrait of Bishop Richard Allen (1760–1831), a tireless preacher committed to ending slavery and fostering equality for blacks in postrevolutionary America. Born a slave in Philadelphia, Allen converted to Methodism when he was 17 during a revival held at his master’s house. After obtaining his freedom, Allen helped to establish two of the most important black-led organizations in early America: the Free African Society, a benevolent organization, and Bethel Church, the birthplace of the African Methodist Episcopal (AME) Church, one of the most powerful African-American denominations in the United States. Although Allen is best remembered for his religious leadership, his work moved far beyond these circles. According to Newman, his ability to create independent black organizations as well as initiate a published discourse among free blacks established him as one of the nation’s founding leaders. Newman’s beautifully written study is not only a first-rate social history of the early Republic and African-American culture and religion, it provides a detailed sketch of Allen that is sure to become the definitive biography of the leader. (Mar.)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.”
http://www.amazon.com/Freedoms-Prophet-Richard-Founding-Fathers/dp/0814758266
I find a similiar instance, among Today’s “Black Leadership”, equally puzzling..
LSS: so many strong Individuals, from our Nation’s History, and countless stories of all manner of Success, from which to choose, the ones that we are entreated to, seem, in comparison, sadly wanting..
This is, after all, “Black History Month”, what, if anything, have we learned about said History? Who, if anyone, have we learned anything about? Which, if any, story of inspiration have we been exposed to?
But, of course, why wonder about any of that? or: http://www.icerocket.com/search?tab=web&fr=h&q=Domestic+Spy+Force
The MSM tells us that there are new leads in the Chandra Levy ‘death’–that Has to be Mission Critical “intel”..