David L. Singer takes a look at the Dow Industrials, and says “As ugly as this chart is, it makes me want to be long, for a bounce… (with a stop-loss of course).”
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Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1996-2009
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Retail Sales in Jan rose .4% headline m/o/m, .7% ex auto's, .6% ex auto's and gasoline and .7% at the core. The headline figure was less than expected while the rest were slightly better. But, with respect to non headline sales, because Dec figures were revised lower, taking the two months together were about in line with forecasts overall. Sales rose in electronics, building materials, food/beverages, clothing, sporting goods, dept stores and restaurant/bars and fell interestingly for online retailers, health/personal care, furniture and motor vehicle/parts. Bottom line, headline sales were below expectations due to the greater than expected fall m/o/m...
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February 21st, 2009 at 11:24 am
Unfortunately, in this case I would not call 13 years “long term.” This correction (to put it mildly) is at least that long in the making. A once-in-100-years recession cannot be put to rest by looking at the Dow for the past 13 years. Take this chart back 100 more years and you realize that the 90′s is an extremely oddball decade.
February 21st, 2009 at 12:23 pm
We’ll talk at 6000.
February 21st, 2009 at 1:32 pm
What if 6000 goes by in a blur…
February 21st, 2009 at 1:39 pm
man, 2000-2 looks tame in comparison to 2007-009..
but, I’ll concur, chart time-frame too short to be TBP..
February 21st, 2009 at 2:20 pm
That dip for late 2002 is the result of the post-9/11 shock to the system and not any market/economic dynamic. Therefore I don’t see the trend line having any value whatsoever.
February 23rd, 2009 at 9:45 pm
If the Dow Theory is still valid the chart is screaming sell. Bounces should be used to get rid of positions, not to add to them. Of course, that does not mean that one cannot actually invest in a secular bull market because those exist at all times. While it could be a volatile ride, one could do quite well investing in the precious metal sector, fertilizer companies, and the agricultural sector.